More positives on Butler
by loyal2sdad on Aug 24, 2009 1:29 PM EDT
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PrintDecided to run stats on AL players since the All-Star break. Using minimum of 125 PAs since the All-Star break (approximating "qualified" status), Billy's 950 OPS since the break ranks 9th in the American League.
Sure, this is a small sample size - but if he has indeed "turned the corner" like it seems he may have, it sure looks like we have found a legit middle of the order hitter. (That leaves us 2 middle of the order hitters short, as I think you need to have studs at 3,4, and 5 to actually have an above avg offense)
Will be interesting to see how he finishes out this season.
Sorry for constantly posting about Billy - I'm about as obsessed with his talent as I was a couple of years ago posting about Greinke's talent. Heh - I guess that's not such a bad thing! Greinke ended up justifying my foaming at the mouth over him; maybe Butler will do the same.
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It seems like a common tenet of sabermetrics
That for young guys doubles will turn to home runs, but is anyone else a bit doubtful this will be the case for Billy? It seems like most of his doubles are gap shots that take advantage of Kauffman’s deep alleys, not bangers off the wall.
Still, I can see him growing more and adding more muscle. I just don’t know if he’ll be a 30 HR hitter. Maybe 20-25.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'd love to see an analysis of his batted ball data
Intuitively, I think he has had his share of near homers – but I also know what you are saying – many of his doubles are simply hit too much on a line to be homers.
There is an addage applied to doubles hit by young guys – that if you subtract a certain number, then divide the remainder by one-half, this will be an estimate of how many of the doubles could potentially turn into homers once the guy matures. Of course, with Billy already being fairly “big”, it may make one wonder if the addage applies in the same manner to him. I believe the number you subtract is somewhere between 15 and 20.
Let’s say Billy ends this year with 20 homers and 54 doubles (he’s on that pace now). Subtracting 20 from the 54, then dividing by 2, would indicate potential to post 37 homer, 37 double season.
FWIW, I actually thought Butler would be the one to beat Balboni’s homerun record first – not Gordon. (I guess we should be happy now if EITHER one of them manages to do it…..)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
And don't get me wrong
A Billy Butler that hits .300/.380/.500 with 20-25 HR would still be pretty valuable.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I know we shouldn't do this,
but the Royals have played 35 games since the AS break.
Butler’s projections, based on those 35 games, would be:
324/380/570
32 homers, 125 RBIs
65 doubles
60 walks, 102 strikeouts.
Obviously, that would be an MVP candidate – even on a shitty team.
Of course, it would be very difficult to have a 162 game stretch that matches his 35 game current stretch – but it sure in the hell is fun to imagine!
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Those doubles will turn into homers eventually
How many times has he hit the walls this year and just barely missed homers? I can think of at least a couple. He has the Sweeney line drive stroke going which is great. If he continues like that, he might even get a lucky BABIP season and lead the league in BA if Joe Mauer ever slows down. From here on out, I expect Butler to hit 25+ homers and 40+ doubles a year. I just don’t think he should be doing it from the #3 spot. With his “speed” he should be a #4 hitter. It’s too bad Gordon had this wasted year. I’d love to see him hit his potential and be our #3 batter. DDJ at #1, and get a high OBP guy for #2, and Billy could put up a Sweeney like 144 RBi season. Put Brayan Pena and Alberto Callaspo at #5 and 6 (their bats seem to be similar to me, so arrange how you want), we should start to approach being a somewhat ok offense. That 7,8,9 is probably still a giant ball of suck though.
Only thing I've seen that makes me question his doubles turning into homers would be
the amount of doubles he seems to hit down the lines. It seems like he has quite a few that get passed the first and third basemen that turn into doubles.
Obviously, without looking at his numbers I don’t really have a clue as to how many of those there are.
He can get 4, NOT 5.
turning doubles into HRs isn't about placement or strength
Its about the observation that he is making strong contact with the ball consistently. Many players naturally learn to put more loft in their swing with age. Now that can be bad as well as Ks tend to come with that too, but who knows players develop differently.
All that said, I’m pretty happy with what we got and he will only get better
Interesting point
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 25, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
The thing is, though
The one former Royal Phenom butler most resembles at the plate now… is the guy we’ve all been waiting Alex Gordon to turn into, minus any speed on the basepaths of course. Seriously, Billy hits more like George than anyone we’ve seen here, period.
I don’t know that Butler will turn those doubles into a career as a “power guy”, but I think it’s reasonable to assume he’s going to occasionally hit 30; Brett developed into a lower-level “power hitter” by continuing to be a line-drive hitter and just, you know, getting those line drives 15 feet off the ground.
This space for rent.
Billy's comps after age 22
included Keith Hernandez, John Olerud, and Kent Hrbek. (Hernandez was the top comp). Don’t think anybody would be too disappointed if he matches any of these guys career wise.
I am anxiously awaiting his comps after age 23 – assume they could get even better, and that would be saying something.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
agreed
Olerud was awesome. Great OBP guy, great 1B defender
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 25, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I always kinda thought he was a borderline HOFer, but I think
his production falling off at age 30 killed that. Though he had an all-time great season in 1993.
.363/.473/.599 1.072 OPS 186 OPS+ 200 Hits, 24 Homers, 54 doubles. By the way, all those numbers led the league except hits, homers, and SLG (he also had 33 IBBs which lead the league). Juan Gonzalez lead the league in SLG with .632 finishing 4th in MVP voting (46 HR), Griffey was 5th in MVP voting with 45 HR. Olerud finished 3rd to Frank Thomas who hit 41 homers. The inexcusable person on that MVP list? Paul Molitor took 2nd to beat Olerud’s 3rd. Molitor played about 75% of his games as a DH and had an OPS of .911, almost 100 points below Olerud’s.
I think Olerud should have had the MVP that year. Olerud’s OBP of .473 is a stunning number, yet ranks just 63rd all-time. The only person that had been that high since Mickey Mantle in 1962 was Wade Boggs in 1988. Thomas surpassed Olerud’s number in 1994, and Edgar Martinez did it 1995. Then Bonds did it a bunch at the top end of the list after 2000. http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_perc_season.shtml
Yeah, he's borderline
Without doing a chart a la Jeff Z. (TucsonRoyhal), Rally has Olerud at 56.6 WAR for his career. NOw, total career numbers don’t do all the work — we want to “height’ and ’length” of a player’s peak(s). OleRud has 8+ win seasons in ‘93 and ’98. I haven’t bought the storable versions, but those are good enough to be MVP most seasons.
I usuallly think of 60 being hte min. cutoff for the HoF, but that’s a rough estimate.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 25, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Those are three guys
I would put in the Hall of Very Good
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I hate the idea of the "Hall of Very Good"
Mostly because FAME does not equal BEST PLAYERS EVER.
There are some guys in the HOF that wouldn’t even make it into the Hall of Mediocre.
Hrbek, Hernandez, and Olerud all have a career OPS+ of 128, Molitor, a HOFer has a 122 and played 1174 games as a DH. The only reason he’s in is for 3000 hits.
Olerud was still above average when he retired (106 OPS+ his final year). If he had played 5 more years like Molitor (Molitor played to age 41, Olerud quit at 36), he would have had to average 152 hits a year to get 3000. Longevity doesn’t make someone great, but it sure does enhance above average player’s resumes.
The best thing about Butler
Is seeing how Seitzer has groomed him. I rewound an AB the other night like five times. The pitch was a curve ball away. Billy hit a rocket toward the RF line that ended up being caught. But the balance of the swing… wow. I watched it over and over. If you want to teach a hitter to hit the opposite way, video Baconator right now and save it.
Billy’s approach is all Seitzer. Stay back and balanced. Drive the pitch where it’s pitched. Away, middle, and pull.
Good job on BB, Seitz.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
except he has done that forever.
I’m not saying Seitzer doesn’t deserve any credit, but he has raked ever since he was drafted.
He can get 4, NOT 5.
He is one of the best oppo field hitters I have seen in KC.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 25, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Offensively, Butler reminds me a little bit of Danny Tartabull
Young readers won’t get the comparison, and in fairness Butler may not ever draw the number of walks Tartabull did – but he might hit for a higher average and should easily hit for as much or more power. Tartabull was pretty damn good at driving the ball to the opposite field; as he gained more experience, he turned into a threat to drive the ball out to all fields. I certainly think Butler is headed towards that ability, if he’s not already there.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
On average, walk rates increase for a player's whole career
That’s not something I worry about with Butler
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 24, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't mind posts about Billy
because he has really turned it on lately and its the one reason to watch the Royals bat right now. His play Post-All Star break has given me hope that he will turn into a damn good hitter.
by I need more Esteban on Aug 25, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
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