I'm not giving up on a Greinke Cy Young

by loyal2sdad on Aug 25, 2009 11:37 AM EDT Comment 24 comments

With recent poor outings from Halladay & Beckett, not to mention a mediocre loss by King Felix and a mediocre win by Verlander last night, I still think the AL Cy Young race is wide open, and that with a strong finish, Greinke could still pull it out. Let's look at the other candidates:

Good pitchers on playoff teams: I'm lumping Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett in this group. All will have significantly better W-L record than Greinke - but all currently have an ERA of a nearly a full run (or more, in some cases) higher than Zack. Best hope is that nobody in this group reaches the magical 20 win figure. Not entirely impossible, as 15 is the most anybody has right now and the season is a bit more than three-fourths complete. In addition, it looks like for Sabathia that the Yanks will clinch early, and they may wish to have him skip a start at the end of the year.

Great pitchers on bad teams: This is Hernandez and Halliday - and if I were voting, these two would be the main contenders along with Greinke. Hernandez is 12-5, ERA is only three-tenths higher than Zack. Greinke probably needs to close the gap on the W-L record here; increasing his ERA lead to a half-run wouldn't hurt either. Holliday's ERA is now over 3; however, I'd bet he gets it under 3 again before the year ends. Don't underestimate that, as there probably is a huge subconcious difference to an uninformed voter between say, a 3.10 and a 2.95 ERA, as illogical as that may sound.

Bottom line - what does Zack have to do in his remaining 8 starts to get what he deserves? My best guess is he needs to win minimum of 6 of these, and lose no more than 1 more. That would have him finish at 17-9 or 18-9. Also think he needs to win the ERA title by at least three-quarters of a run over the Sabathia, Verlander, and Beckett trio. Probably needs to stay three-tenths or more ahead of King Felix and Halliday. Strikeouts, CG, and shutout categories are all good for Zack already - adding another shutout wouldn't hurt, and merely maintaining his current rank in Ks (2nd) would probably suffice.

So, what are the odds? Just a guess, but I think he has about a 15% chance at this point of all this happening. Maybe I'm just an optimist when it comes to Zack - what do you all think his chances are?

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I have no idea

i wish I could say I didn’t care about these awards, given how often they turn out to be jokes. I guess the Cy Young isn’t the worst — Gold Gloves are. I think Halladay should have won last year, but it wasn’t a Nate McClouth/Michael Young Gold Glove situation when Cliff Lee won.

What’s weird is that Greinke had a lot of Cy Young buzz before the season even started… I mean, he had the potential, but it seemed like a long shot. No one could have predicted he’d have the season he’s had. He’s not quite on the historic pace of earlier this season, but he’s still pretty close.

I’d like to think t he writer will look past everything and vote for the best guy. And, look, if Greinke sort of limps through his last few starts and Verlander or Halladay catch on fire and pass him in tRA or FIP-WAR, I can live with that. Heck, if Greinke gets screwed, I can live with that.

Just for fun, using my own park- and league- adjusted WAR numbers (based on Colin Wyer’s BaseRuns-FIP stat), are recent AL Cy Young and who “should” have won

2008 Winner: Cliff Lee, 8.0 WAR
Shoulda: Halladay, 8.8

2007 Winner: CC Sabathia, 7.9 WAR
Shoulda: CC

2006 Winner: Johan Santana, 8.6 WAR
Shoulda: Johan

2005 Winner: Bartolo Colon, 6.23 WAR
Should: Johan, 8.7 WAR., John Lackey (6.27) and Mark Buerhle (6.24) also barely outpitched Colon

2004 Winner: Johan Santana, 8.8
Shoulda: Johan again. Closest contender was Curt Schilling at 7.7. Brad Radke (!) was third at 6.5 (Bradke was an underrated badass).

2003 Winner: Roy Halladay 8.9
Shoulda: Doc. Pedro was “runner-up” with 8.0

2002: Barry Zito, 4.6
Shoulda. According to my numbers, Zito was the 11th most valuable starting pitchin in the AL that season. #1 was Pedro at 8.3., then Doc at 7.9, then Derek Lowe at 7.2. Zito’s Teammate Tim Hudson was #4 at 5.4. One interesting player who was ahead of Zito? Future KC All-Star Mark Redman at 4.9 (#9). Terrible rip-off, by far the worst I’ve looked at here.

2001: Roger Clemens, 6.2
Shoulda: Teammates Mike Mussina, 8.2. Clemens was only #5 that season, but the three guys between him and Mussina were all between 6-7: (Freddy Garcia at 7, Mark Mulder at 6.5, Brad Radke at 6.4 [man, Radke was a lot better than I remember]). I think Clemens went 22-1 that season, though…

2000: Pedro, 10.8
Shoulda: No one even close, David Wells was #2 at 7.1

1999: Pedro, 11.8.
Shoulda: See above

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 25, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nate McClouth won a Gold Glove

and I gave up on the human race.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Aug 26, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is actually a movement forming

Around Mo Rivera. Mostly because no starter has emerged with great W-L AND ERA numbers. I’d put Rivera behind all six of the starters you mention.

I think Halladay is pretty much out at this point. Sabathia could be out if he has a bad start that sends his ERA too close to 4.00. I don’t think Beckett is much of a challenger now.

I think Verlander has the best shot. Greinke and Hernandez need to win too many games. I can’t see Zack winning more than 15 games at this point, and that’s not nearly enough to win the Cy.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 25, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There you go

looking at he Cytracker on ESPN, Verlander indeed is ahead.

Greinke is nearly an entire run per game better than Verlander.

Guess I need to root for the White Sox or Twins to overtake Detroit.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Aug 25, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Rivera wins it, it wouldn't be the end of the world

But it would be a Career Achievement Award, as a reliever is never deserving or has enough innings to compare to a starter.

by AxDxMx on Aug 25, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did

Soria get any votes last year?

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Aug 25, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but Mo did

2008 AL Cy Young Award Voting
Pitcher, Club 1st 2nd 3rd Points
Cliff Lee, CLE 24 4 132
Roy Halladay, TOR 4 15 6 71
Francisco Rodriguez, LAA 7 11 32
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS 2 4 10
Mariano Rivera, NYY 3 3
Mike Mussina, NYY 2 2
Ervin Santana, LAA 2 2

by AxDxMx on Aug 25, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it is worth

ESPN keeps track of the Neyer/James Cy Young balloting predictor:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/features/cyyoung

They’ve got Greinke 8th (behind Joe Nathan even).

by Trey Hillman's Chin on Aug 25, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that thing is deadly accurate

which is sad — greinke’s going to get robbed

by marbotty on Aug 26, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It hasn't been updated to included last night's stats

I keep my own stat geek worksheet that calculates the numbers by the Neyer/James formula, and incorporating last night’s game, Zack retook the lead in the Cy Predictor by a point over Verlander.

by swing and a miss on Aug 26, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think if he can regain his April, early May form for these last 8 starts

he has a reasonable chance, but if he doesn’t win games and if his ERA rises, I’m afraid that there is little chance. I still think he is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, but writers probably won’t watch him pitch and only look at boxscores in their evaluation.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 25, 2009 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

too bad he can't win the games himself.

by grudz96 on Aug 25, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this were the NL he could

Greinke hits a homer and throws a shutout for the 25th time this season, going a perfect 34-0 in his 34 starts.

by AxDxMx on Aug 25, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he would lead the team in homers as well

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 25, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well yeah

Those 25 shutouts are only wins because Greinke hit a homer in each of them, winning 1-0, 25 times. That season also puts Greinke ahead of Babe Ruth as the best pitcher/position player ever. In fact, it has them thinking about playing him at SS on his non-pitching days. The guy hits a homer about 1 every 5 ABs!

by AxDxMx on Aug 25, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sadly this will be tough to accomplish

..but yes I am still rooting for Greinke to do it.

When super delayed gratification meets with underachieving veteran they laugh at the Royals, just a hypothesis though

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 25, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would like to redact this statement

GO ZACK!!!!! Who cares man, just pitch. Big Man pitch’en!!!!

When super delayed gratification meets with underachieving veteran they laugh at the Royals, just a hypothesis though

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 26, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I was running the team

He would have about a 1% chance becuase he would never go over about 80 pitches if I was in charge at this point in the season. There is absolutely NO reason that he should be used like he is in a fracking penant race and have lots of unneccessary mileage put on that golden arm.

In reality, he probably has about a 10% chance, since he will probably throw 8 innings in every start because the Royals are looking for any reason to vindicate this season.

What does he have left, 6 or 7 starts? If he goes out & goes 5 or 6 and 1 over the final stretch he has a real shot.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Aug 25, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Greinke might do better in the voting if Poz pushes hard, like he's doing for Mauer's MVP

Greinke could get the sympathy vote. I mean, if he even gets average run support he should be like 18-2 right now.

by AxDxMx on Aug 25, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For one thing

the Royals need to skip somebody in the rotation once so Zack can get an extra start, if they stay with the five man he only has seven starts left instead of eight. Earth to Trey Hillman, make it happen. Also no one can win twenty games, Zack has to get at least 15 wins and maintain an ERA+ lead of 20 runs or greater. Wouldn’t hurt if he can grab the league lead in WHIP back, the White Sox beat out the Tigers, the Rangers beat out the Red Sox, and whomever ends up leading the AL in wins has some hideous ERA near four just to remind writers how ridiculous won loss record is. And yes, Poz needs to write a story about Zack’s hideous run/defense/bullpen support and point out how he’s saved 30 runs above average over the next guy in the league.

by swing and a miss on Aug 25, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs