21 Things You Could Have Told Me at the Beginning of the Season that Would Have Led Me to Believe We'd Be in First Place Right Now

by marbotty on Aug 3, 2009 10:46 PM EDT Comment 77 comments

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1. Zack Greinke would be leading the AL in Strikeouts and ERA

2. Brayan Pena would be called up and would hit .319/.355/.478

3. Brian Bannister hwould not only regain his 2007 form, but improve on it

4. Willie Bloomquist would not be as terrible as we anticipated

5. Coco Crisp would have a .371 OBP in the first month, and would have the 3rd most walks on the team through August

6. Mark Teahen would show a resurgence in his ability to hit, garnering a lot of interest as a trade candidate...

7. ...but we would not trade him because Moore viewed him as to valuable to the team's chances in 2009

8. The Royals would be in first place through much of the first two months

9. Kyle Farnsworth would have more strikeouts than innings pitched, and a 4:1 K/BB ratio, against only 2 homeruns allowed

10. Mike Jacobs would have dramatically improved his walk rate and his defense, while also leading the team in homeruns

11. Miguel Olivo would have 14 homeruns

12. Alberto Callaspo and Billy Butler would both have OPS's around .800

13. Soria would continue to dominate

14. Hillman would start demonstrating some creativity with the use of his closer, not being wedded to the idea of a 3 out pitcher

15. Moore would trade away two prospects, including Dan Cortes, to upgrade our shortstop position

16. Both Kyle Davies and Luke Hochevar would show flashes of brilliance, including months in which they both pitched as good as or better than Greinke

17. Gil Meche would continue to be a dependable innings eater with an above average ERA

18. Sidney Ponson wouldn't be on the major league squad by June

19. The Royals would be buyers at the trade deadline, trading for depth at the outfield and infield positions

20. Jose Guillen wouldn't be starting in the outfield by August 2, as we had several better options

21. Dayton Moore would condescend to us about how well The Process was working

10 recs | Comment 77 comments

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Comments

"Miguel Olivo would have 14 homeruns..."

…and still be the third best hitting catcher on the team.

wOBAs as of this posting time:

Brayan Pena .354
John Buck .319
Miguel Olivo .310

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

oh, and rec'd

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Mike Jacobs would have dramatically improved his walk rate and his defense, while also leading the team in homeruns"

…and was still one of the worst players in baseball.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

(and the Royals)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another way of putting the Jacobs point

“That Mike Jacobs would have more of his PAs end in walks than the league average” (9.1% of Jacobs PAs end in a walk, 8.9% of MLB PAs end in a walk, 7.2% of Royals PAs end in a walk)

Or “Mike Jacobs would have a lower K:BB ratio than Mark Teahen”

But Teahen will have a few days to try and beat Jacobs on K:BB because Trey’s going to chain Jacobs to the bench due to Seattle having three LHP pitching in the series.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 3, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like that would be an ideal time to try hitting Teahen, Jacobs, and Gordon back-to-back-to-back

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps a lineup of...

DDJ
Teahen
Gordon
Jakers
(rest of scrubs)
Francis S.Key Betancourt

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Aug 3, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

on jacobs

I love the idea that he’s underperforming, when, really, I think he’s been better than I expected

still, somebodys gotta be the scapegoat

by royalsreview on Aug 3, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't forget how good Miggy has been with lefties

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 4, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jesus Christ this team is raping my will to live

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Aug 3, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs

agreed

lots of good reading over at Arrowhead Pride

Hopes fade once again from blue to red. Go New Chiefs!!

by kabrink on Aug 3, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

combine this with the most stressful summer of my life...

and Ive had very few bright spots.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Aug 3, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and rec'd

soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 3, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How to dramatically improve Mike Jacobs defense:

only play him in the field for 12 innings

They should have helped TPH improve his hitting hte same way: let him go 2-6 to start the season, then never let him come to the plate again.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 3, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

please god

make it stop…

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 3, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It is starting to effect my casual glances at other teams fans

I get caught staring, wondering what it would be like to not have a hole this larger in my soul

soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 3, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

There are 2 more damning than others to me

“5. Coco Crisp would have a .371 OBP in the first month, and would have the 3rd most walks on the team through August”

“15. Moore would trade away two prospects, including Dan Cortes, to upgrade our shortstop position”

by sterlingice on Aug 3, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Upgrade or to get someone elses cast off?

I would rather see Bianchi at shortstop and Cortes replacing Chen. ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!

by grudz96 on Aug 3, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I'd rather see

Derrick Saito at SS and Cortes replacing Chen

by sterlingice on Aug 4, 2009 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching matchups

Seattle:
Tue: Hochevar (RHP) v. Ryan Rowland-Smith (LHP)
Wed: Davies (RHP) vs. Luke French (LHP)
Thu: Chen (LHP) vs. Jason Vargas (LHP)
Oakland:
Fri: Bannister (RHP) vs. Vin Mazzaro (RHP)
Sat: Greinke (RHP) vs. Brett Anderson (LHP)
Sun: Hochevar (RHP) vs. Gio Gonzalez (LHP)
Minnesota
Tue: Davies (RHP) v. Liriano (LHP)
Wed: Meche or Chen v. Blackburn (RHP)

Mike Jacobs should probably fake a bereavement leave until Friday or something. And another one from Saturday to Wednesday so he can spend time working against a pitching machine that only throws sliders

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 3, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I asked a friend of mine if Jakers problems could all be because of his massive chaw...

I had the idea that the massive chaw is somehow reflecting light directly into his eye, thus handicapping him like Kirby Puckett after he lost vision in one eye.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Aug 3, 2009 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the chaw if over stimulating his brain thus making it impossible to hit anything.

by grudz96 on Aug 3, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Don't Think

He uses his eyes or brain when he swings; purely reflexive.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 3, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

that's a good description for iceman

but it’s a PERFECT description for Olivo on the 1st pitch of an AB

by KyleM on Aug 3, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swing Hard, You

Might hit it.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 4, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What are his platoon splits...

for chaw in left cheek vs. chaw in right cheek?

If I recall correctly, he usually has the chaw in his left cheek. A few weeks ago I noticed that he had the chaw in his right cheek all of a sudden during a PA, and I even remarked on this fact to the missus. Sure enough, Jacobs hits a dinger.

I would do some research and break this phenomenon down statistically, but I’m sure someone in the front office who watches Mike Jacobs chew every day has a much better grasp on which side makes him a better ballplayer.

by Steve Perry on Aug 4, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

have we investigated if its chaw or not?

did someone say it was paper?

I don’ t know how the man is stil alive

by royalsreview on Aug 4, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

i think it’s just leaf. I think Guillen might actually have a dip in….every AB……so if he doesn’t have a face in five years we will know why

by gilmeche55 on Aug 4, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's chewing on bark from an oak tree

by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 4, 2009 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's chewing pure grit

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 4, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess if the chaw was in the cheek closest to the mound

then the last moments, the ball would be lost from vision. But I mean the last smallest of measurements, not sure how much a puffy cheek would actually conceal.

I think it’s the tobacco companies way of keeping the Royals down.

RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE!!!!!

soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 4, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

Josh Anderson is going to get slaughtered if he’s starting with the team this week. Considering that his wife has been on the verge of delivery for like 5 days, he may not make it to KC until next week. But Anderson is going to start off ice cold here. Can we put someone on the DL retroactive to their last game as a Detroit Tiger?

Also, my prefered lineup vs LHP

1. Callaspo (DH)
2. Bloomquist (2B)
3. Teahen (RF)
4. Butler (1B)
5. Olivo ©
6. Gordon (3B)
7. Freel (CF)
8. Betancourt (SS)
9. DeJesus (LF)

Ok. you can switch Freel and DDJ

but Trey would put Bert at 2nd, Bloomquist at CF, and use a spare catcher at DH

Actually, Trey would start Joey Gathwhite against LHP and wonder why hes not hitting.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 3, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I miss Gator... at least his jumping over cars was entertaining.

Let’s see Jake or Bloomy do that.

by grudz96 on Aug 3, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Mike Jacobs jumps over a car

you do realize that he will return next year, right?

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 3, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh geez, I will nightmares for sure tonight.

Cars jumping over Jacobs with Gator driving…

by grudz96 on Aug 4, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks For That

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Aug 4, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sweet! I'm going to be back in KC this week

And I’ll get to see Greinke at our game Saturday :D

by sterlingice on Aug 4, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Frenchy

One of my best friends played high school baseball/graduated high school with Luke French. And French got his first major league win a couple weeks ago against Greinke while pitching with Detroit (before being part of the package to acquire Washburn). I don’t think I could handle French beating the Royals again. I may never hear the end of it. But in the end, it’s just another Royals loss, so that shouldn’t mean much to French, or my friend.

by nufan06 on Aug 5, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All of us have hope...

September callups begin in 29 days.

Anybody got anyone in particular they are anxious to see?

by KyleM on Aug 3, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Disco and Kila

Disco will have to pitch because of no better option, though I doubt Kila gets many at bats.

Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures

by averagegatsby on Aug 3, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kila has 82 fucking walks in 102 games

i mean, dejesus has 33 in 99 games for us. and that leads our team.

how is this guy just wasting away?

by KyleM on Aug 3, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably has something to do with 87 hits in 102 games

His line for the last week is something else too

.077/.455/.308. 9 walks, 1 homer, and 12 outs in 22 PA.

Kaaihue has missed the last two games, vs. Adam Ottavino (RHP) and Trey Hearne (RHP)

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 3, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just saying

I don’t trust this offense to move runners on 2nd, much less moving a slow one who might be on first

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you know what's worse than not moving a guy on first over?

not having a guy on first to begin with

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 4, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

agreed

I see both sides, but his OBP is .401. Even if you dropped 75 points off that (just making up a number, not looking into the stats) to make up for the league transition, he’d still be one of the better OBP’s on our roster.

by KyleM on Aug 4, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The MLEs knock a bit more off his OBP

.208/.322/.356 (678 OPS)

the Royals are hitting .250/.309/.392 (701 OPS)
Mike Jacobs is hitting .216/.292/.408 (700 OPS)

Or, to put it another way.. Mike Jacobs has as many home runs in the major leagues as Kila Kaaihue has in AAA.

Consider that this is the organization that released Esteban German and kept Tony Pena Jr.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll give you german/tpj

maybe german can pitch?

by KyleM on Aug 4, 2009 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably better than Chen...

by grudz96 on Aug 4, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Different places do different MLEs differently

Check out BP’s Davenport translations, which are MLEs that also use EqA (equivalent average), which isn’t as good straight-up as wOBA, but is the same idea. EqA is on a AVG scale, and .260 is always set as MLB average.

Dt’s also use basic batting stats. It also accounts for the Al/NL difference

here is Jacobs current DT line (although this will be close or the same as his curent AL line):

.217 .298 .416, .245 EqA

Kila’s translated 2009 AAA line:

243 .378 .436 .286 EqA

His EqA was up around .300 last season

When you look at money, age, and the direction of the team, playing Kila now makes sense. If Jacobs is on the team, he should be playing, but having him on the team at this point is a waste of time. They should try to make a waiver trade for him to the first team dumb enough to take his salary. There are players as bad as him (or even better) available for a dime a dozen. They need to find out what they have with Kila ASAP so they don’t waste any more time.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 4, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kila Kaaihue will hit more home runs in Japan than the American League

just a prediction.

The worst thing to happen to Kaaihue is his 2008 AAA numbers.

2008: .316/.439/.640, 11 HRs (139 PAs)
2009: .257/.401/.462, 14 HRs (430 PAs)

Basically it’d take a lot after that to really top the SLG. If Kaaihue were to have both of those seasons in one year, nobody would really mention the drop off.

Now, if you combine the two years: .272/.410/.507, 25 HRs (569 PAs)

Kaaihue averaged a HR every 33 PA from 2002 to 2007. He averaged a HR every 13.9 PA in 2008. He is averaging a HR every 31 PA in 2009. He is averaging a HR every 22.76 PA in AAA

The 2009 numbers suggest a massive regression to his usual talent. But you can see how the division of his AAA is not going to do him any favors. Especially since the Royals front office is run by morons these days. Allard Baird would have been better for Kila Kaaihue’s career than Dayton Moore.

Kila Kaaihue is a LHB who occasionally hits HRs, draws walks, and plays 1st base if he has to wear a glove. He is hardly unique in his field.

As well, his HRs per PA stat was 13.9 in 2008, and never got within 10 of that in any other year.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know I would buy that, but

he’s dealt with a lot of injuries, and some guys just show up out of nowhere. This season may be a regression to the mean, but the guy still finds ways to get on base. A .400 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. The AAA pitchers have made adjustments this year, and if Kila can adjust back, he can improve his BA and power numbers. He should be in MLB over Jacobs at this point, because we know Jacobs sucks, and Kila hasn’t had a chance yet. I actually think some of his slumping this year could be attributed to knowing he’s not getting any time at the MLB level no matter what he does. He did all he could last year and got less than 20 September ABs. Damn! What’s a guy got to do?

by AxDxMx on Aug 4, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We know Jacobs sucks and shouldn't be back with the club next year.

Why not see if Kila has a place on this squad?

He can get 4, NOT 5.

by Warden11 on Aug 4, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only real way to make much of those walks

putting Kila in front of someone who could hit.

Trey is enough of a fucking moron that he’d bat Kaaihue in front of Betancourt.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's not all there is to walks

it also doesn’t make an out, which gives everyone else a chance to hit

it also moves a guy over who is on first

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 4, 2009 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"more chances to hit"

not making an out is more than just putting a guy on first

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Aug 4, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also, a walk requires longer plate appearances

something yuni and olivo strive to avoid

And, our GM in general

by KyleM on Aug 4, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't it clog up the basepaths?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 4, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're assuming that we have people on 1st often

once again, this is the organization that effed over Esteban German.

Now, if we were in the NL (which has the better style of play), the bench players might be a bit more worth it.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't really matter if there's someone on first or not

Look at it this way, if he walks 100 times a year, that’s 100 more ABs over the course of the season. Some nights those extra ABs will matter, sometimes they won’t. Right now our team leader has 33 walks. I’d like more please.

by AxDxMx on Aug 4, 2009 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stop it

You’re not making, I mean you are making sense and Moore doesn’t want to hear it.

Kila gets on base – he had 13 walks and 2 strikeouts in his last 10 games before 8/1 – so he’s clearly not a good fit for Moore’s “philosophy” and he’s certainly not part of Moore’s “process”

We need to watch Mike Jacobs strike out and embarrass himself to justify his unbearably bad trades

BTW, the reason Moore needs to go is because we can’t have a GM who makes trades like this. It’s simple, the Marlins/Redsox management teams would never had made trades for those players, because they’re the ones who got rid of them

I can’t even debate anymore because I don’t believe in Moore at all. I didn’t care for trading a prospect that was basically sucking in AA for a MLB SS but to trade our two young bullpen pieces and then have your FA signings totally BOMB was enough.

Its not just the Crisp/Jacobs trades that Moore should be judged on, its the 3rd factor that he sucks at building a bullpen and just got lucky with Ram Ram last year! Fire him he’s a loser!

by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 4, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rosa and Holland

maybe Logue and Mertins

by grudz96 on Aug 3, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'd like to see lubanski

i wonder if we’ll keep him on the 40-man…it would be a shame to let him go w/o ever getting a look at him, he’s only 24 and has shown improvement…worth a shot.

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 3, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lubanski isn't on the 40 man

IIRC, we somehow got Lubanski through a Rule 5 or two

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I too would like to see him in the bigs in Sept.

by grudz96 on Aug 4, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, that'd be a good idea

since i’m pretty sure he’s a minor league FA after this year

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Disco, Rosa, Hulett, Nicoll, Kila, Lubanski

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 4, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

trust the process

you morons

where i'm "day-to-day" but i won't play again happens!

by blue bandwagon on Aug 4, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is that said right after they tell you to grab your ankles???

by grudz96 on Aug 4, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

transaction action

for July 19th through 25th

Kansas City Royals
Signed: C Luis Villegas
Released: RHP Greg Atencio, LHP Carlos Sencion
Placed on restricted list: RHP Roque Colon, 3B Kyle Martin
Recalled: OF Mitch Maier
Outrighted to Triple-A and removed from 40-man: SS Tony Pena Jr.
Placed on 7-day DL: RHP Chad Orvella
Reinstated from DL: LHP John Rodriguez

With Pena Jr.’s almost comic ineptitude at the plate, it’s easy to forget that he actually hit .261 in Triple-A and as high as .267 for the Royals in 2007—albeit with just 10 walks in 536 plate appearances. In two subsequent seasons, he hasn’t come close to cracking the Mendoza line, batting .169 and .098 with eight walks and seven extra-base hits over 135 games. With Yuniesky Betancourt in the picture, the Royals will see if Pena Jr. can forge a second career as a reliever, a journey he’ll embark upon in the Arizona League.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 4, 2009 1:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs