A Bright Spot in '09 (not named Zack)

by GoBabies!! on Aug 5, 2009 10:14 PM EDT

You may find it hard to believe, but we may have one other bright spot in the 2009 season other than the impressive Zack Greinke. Billy Butler is currently on pace to hit 49 Doubles. He is only 23 years old. Would you like to know what other Major League Players have hit such a lofty number of doubles at such a young age? It's a short list according to Baseball-Reference.com...(Players were 23 years old or younger as of June 30 of the year in question)...

1934 - Hank Greenberg - 23 Years Old - OPS 1.004

1939 - Enos Slaughter - 23 Years Old - OPS .853

1944 - Stan Musial - 23 Years Old - OPS .989

1996 - Alex Rodriguez - 20 Years Old (!) - OPS 1.045

2003 - Albert Pujols - 23 Years Old - OPS 1.106

2006 - Miguel Cabrera - 23 Years Old - OPS .998

2006 - Grady Sizemore - 23 Years Old - OPS .908

So far, in his season of age 23 has posted an OPS of 'just' .795, so I think it is a bit premature to start comparing him to A-Rod or Stan Musial, which isn't my intention in this post. I think my point is simply that Billy Butler is still really young to be in KC at all, let alone putting up good numbers. A quick scan of the prospects in the Royals organization brings up a bevy of guys that we are hoping contribute to KC in the future, but they are already older than Billy including Kila Ka'aihue, Carlos Rosa, Chris Hayes, Jordan Parraz, David Lough, Jose Duarte, ...

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Hit another BOMB tonight!

I’ve really seen Billy get better this year in the midst of an awful team season. He’s really starting to drive the ball the other way and he’s starting to punish mistakes. He hit the ball well tonight. And he even took a walk.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Aug 5, 2009 11:28 PM EDT reply actions

Yea

Once he turns his knowledge of the strike zone into the patience to take walks in those AB’s when he doesn’t get a pitch to drive, which honestly may still be a couple years away, he’ll really start to put up some good #’s.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Aug 5, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing about Billy

Everyone always knew Billy was going to rake once he developed. I mean, when he was still in AA, that’s all anyone said about him; “The kid can rake, period.” The issue was whether he’d ever get a chance to because of his defensive shortcomings.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Aug 6, 2009 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

Billy ain't Pujols at first

But, I have no qualms about him over there at all. I think he has done a great job this year in improving his fielding. He deserves a lot of credit this year all around. Can Kila play outfield?

Hopes fade once again from blue to red. Go New Chiefs!!

by kabrink on Aug 8, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

OPS up to 811 now

He is absolutely already there against lefties – OPS of 1002 against southpaws now!

Granted, he still has some improvement to do against righties, but consider this:

Often, guys with large platoon splits have them because they are one-dimensional, dead pull hitters (Jacobs is a great example). Billy DOES NOT fit this description. He hits well to the opposite field, and I think its just a matter of time before he closes that platoon split a bit more and becomes the 900 OPS monster we all think he can be.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Aug 6, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions

I doubt Butler will ever be a 900 OPS hitter

but your point about the platoon split is a good one. PLatoon splits tend to regress to league average, especially for RHH. Projecting players platoon performances separately is a a mistake, too, since their performances and RHP and LHP also tell us about their skills against each other.

IN other words, while BIlly’s not as good a hitter as his numbers vs. LHP would indicate, those number do tell us that he’s probably going to be better vs RHP than he seems at the moment.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

So basically, those of you in fantasy baseball leagues, should have anticipated this week's lefty barrage

as a power binge for Billy Butler. I know I did. Butler needs to figure out how the righties are getting him out and adjust. He hits with much less power against them (1 homer every 57.2 PAs vs righties, 1 every 20.9 vs lefties).

By the way, who saw the lefty-lefty homer of Alex Gordon coming last night? I know I didn’t. I’m hoping that means he starting to swing better, but he may have just caught a good one.

by AxDxMx on Aug 6, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Gordon's HR was surprising

and, yeah, it was just Luke French, but a HR is a homer. It’s not like it was Ron Mahay or Jamey Wright or Kyle Davies.

In 2007 rookie season, Alex actually had better isolated power vs. LHP than RHP.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

i can see butler putting up numbers similar to sizemore's

maybe pull a fluke .900 season, but probably end up in the .850 – .870 range most seasons.

by marbotty on Aug 6, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

of course, sans the stolen bases

by marbotty on Aug 6, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

and all-female fan club

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions

you dont think 'billy's bitches' will be out in full force next year?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Aug 6, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

and being a good defensive center fielder

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions

disagreed

has anyone ever tried butler at center? i think not. ergo, we’ll never know

by marbotty on Aug 6, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

which would still be good numbers

even for a 1B. In Butler’s case, I suspect it will be weighted more heavily to OBP, which is a good thing, even if he never hits 32 HOME RUNS!!!111 in a season.

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by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

i wonder what the difference over the course of a season in

Butlers hits lost due to being a righty withbelow average speed and
Sizemore’s hits added due to being a lefty above average speed

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Aug 6, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Butler -- pretty much "right on schedule"

Butler’s current three slash:

.291/345/.440

Preasean CHONE projection: .289/.356/.444

PECOTA (sub required): .287/.350/.472

CHONE wins again, so far, anyway.

Long-term forecasts are (admittedly) going to be very problematic, but still interesting.

Here is CHONE’s. Notre that these numbers are “neutralized” for park/league. SO, as opposed to his KC 2009 projection above, BABIP will be a bit higher, and homers (and thus SLG) a bit lowe:

YEAR AGE
2009 23 290/.359/.454
2010 24 .295/.366/.462
2011 25 .296/.370/.466
2012 26 .300/.375/.476
2013 27 .297/.375/.474
2014 28 .293/.374/.464

PECOTA (non-neutralized, I think):

2009 .287/.350/.472
2010 .289/.358/.474
2011 .294/.361/.485
2012 .293/.364/.489
2013 .294/.367/.477
2014 .298/.368/.504
2015 .302/.374/.513

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 6, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions