2009 Royals BABIP for batters

by ZeppelinDZ on Sep 11, 2009 5:41 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

I really didn't want to wait til the end of the year to skew the data with September call-ups so I'll post this now for your consumption.

For those who don't know, a simple google search on the subject will familiarize you with the concepts here as much work has been done on the subject in just the last year. Several fairly in depth models have been developed but I choose just to keep things simple with a aLD+bGB+cFB model. It isn't as good as the others, but it will still be pretty close and a lot easier to compute. If someone wants to run one of the better models for comparison, I would highly encourage it.

Lastly, this isn't a list of who is good/bad on the team, its an adjustment. Billy Butler is and will be a great hitter, even if he was lucky this year. The list below the jump.

50 PA in 2009 min.

Name          LD%      BABIP   xBABIP    Diff
Billy Butler      18.90%    0.341    0.297   0.044    Aviles was ~.065 last year for comparison
Mark Teahen    20.10%    0.341    0.304    0.037
Miguel Olivo       15.70%    0.311    0.277 0.034    Profiles as a higher BABIP guy with higher K and HR rates
A. Callaspo      16.00%    0.305    0.279    0.026
Mitch Maier    17.60%    0.311    0.289   0.022
Alex Gordon     8.50% 0.246    0.233     0.013    The 8.5 LD% is the worry here, just hasn't driven the ball at all
David DeJesus    19.50%    0.308    0.301     0.007
Jose Guillen    14.20%    0.266    0.268    -0.002
W. Bloomquist   19.80%    0.298    0.302    -0.004
Mike Jacobs    18.40%    0.289    0.294    -0.005
John Buck           16.30%    0.258    0.281    -0.023
Y. Betancourt      17.30%    0.255    0.287    -0.032
Brayan Pena 21.80%    0.280 0.315    -0.035    Encouraging that his BA has room to rise further
Coco Crisp       17.60%    0.247    0.289    -0.042    Another reason to try to bring him back next year
Tony Pena   2.80% 0.132    0.196    -0.064    2.8% Oh My Gawd, I had no idea
Mike Aviles        18.90%    0.226    0.297    -0.071    Can this guy just be normal for a year?
Luis Hernandez 20.50%    0.227    0.306    -0.079

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Does anyone know

The number of ABs to have a credible estimate of BABIP/LD rate? I wouldn’t think 100 or so ABs for Gordon would not produce any kind of meaningful estimate of LD rate…

by PopeSoria on Sep 11, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

partially agree

Gordon does has a small sample size and that should always be kept in perspective. The same should be said with Crisp, Pena, Aviles, and Hernandez.

That being said, 8% is very very low, and 120 PAs is not meaningless. I am more than willing to chalk it up to injury because I still see and unbelievably sweet swing every time he is at the plate, but this helps give you the idea of how completely wasted this year was for him.

by ZeppelinDZ on Sep 11, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that small sample/injury issues come in here

But Gordon is approaching the 150 PA threshold for the “stabilization” of LD rate, according to Pizza Cutter’s research.

Still, while there’s a lot of reasons to be discouraged about Gordon, this one doesn’t worry me overly much, given the past samples, his decent speed scores, etc. I just hope he can return to getting the ball in the air like he did last season.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 12, 2009 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does PAs make sense for LD rate?

Shouldn’t you be going by balls in play? Gordon is at about 90 balls in play this year. But maybe that assumes a certain amount of strikeouts mixed in.

I guess this is addressed in the comments of that article. It sounds like he thinks going by BIP would have been useful.

The only thing I fear with Gordon is apparently he is being put in his place by being forced to bunt at every possible opportunity…

by PopeSoria on Sep 12, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly what "stabilization" means is also tough to pin down

I think it means that at 150 PA (or whatever) it starts to “mean something,” but even at 150 PA, Gordon’s LD rate (leaving aside teh BIP question) doesn’t mean a whole lot compared to the hundreds of PAs in prior seasons. If you look at Tom Tango’s comments below, at 150 PA of whatever event “stabliizes” at 150, we can start estimating true talent against, say about 65 PAs of league average…

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 12, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs