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Around SBN: Ohio State And Florida Target 2013 Receiver Recruits

Aviles to second base, and your new DH... wait for it.... Bert!
Yes, we will have that rare DH / backup 2nd baseman combination, because you just have to have lots of middle infielders, there are just never enough! Sorry Kila, maybe you can come up in September if you are really good this year.

over 2 years ago Tiny BabyBlues 29 comments 1 recs  | 

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I really do not have a problem with this

Bert’s bat is better than what we have at DH right now. And to be honest, his bat translates better than Kila’s to the majors. I know that you always want a 1B/DH masher, but if you do not have one and you cannot buy one, then what the hell is the problem with filling the DH spot with a good bat that is right now playing really bad defense at 2B? Especially if it allows you to add another good bad with better defense to your lineup. Now, that assumes Aviles will regain 2008 form, but if he does, then play him there. Or, you could play him at SS and move Yuni to 2B (where he will probably play closer to league average).

And please, I know Kila is the cause of die hard Royals fans, but even Rany, who pushes him as a symbol of what the organization does not value (OBP) would not pretend that he would be much better in any other category than Mike Jacobs, other than walks. Kila is a symbol of what people hate about the Royals, not a real answer to any of the Royals’ problems.

by bas on Sep 15, 2009 7:32 AM EDT reply actions  

what the ass?

1. If Kila does everything Mike Jacobs does offensively exactly the same, except with 50-80 points of OBP, that is valuable.
2. He can actually be allowed out on the field to play defense.
3. He will cost 10-15% of what Jacobs will cost.

So if Jacobs = problem, the hell yes he’s the answer to a problem

by PopeSoria on Sep 15, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

what kind of intangibles does Kila have?

Does he have the leadership? :)

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Sep 15, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Jacobs wins intangibles...

his swing is the most intangible thing I’ve ever seen

by PopeSoria on Sep 15, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

This assumes only a tradeoff between Jacobs and Kila

To have a 1B/DH project a batting avg in the .230s with a high walk rate is embarrassing. To say that he is better than Jacobs does not really mean that Kila should be valued as part of a major league team, but instead that the Royals should not carry an extra 1B guy. If, instead of carrying a dude on the bench that hits .230, can play only one position on the field (and not be a stellar defender), but can take a walk, we can also look at carrying someone that CAN PLAY SEVERAL INFIELD POSITIONS IF ASKED TO DO SO (though 2B badly, Callaspo ha played OK 3rd and I bet he could play 1st if asked), but can hit close to .300 average and can also take some walks, then, in my opinion, you keep the extra infielder and let that infielder hit at the DH spot on a regular basis.

So, to sum up: Jacobs < Kila, we all know this, and the point has been beaten into the ground. However, going forward with a (hopefully) good hitting and healthy Aviles, Kila > Callaspo is probably not true. Just because Kila is better than Jacobs does not mean that either of them belong on a MLB roster.

by bas on Sep 15, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

To have a 1B/DH project a batting avg in the .230s with a high walk rate is embarrassing.

Carlos Pena embarrassing? Or pre-2009 Adam Dunn embarrassing?

Callaspo as a DH would elimate about half his value as a 2B, even a defensively challenged one like himself. Per Fangraphs, Callaspo has been about +6.8 runs above average with the bat and -7.8 runs with the glove, and then gets +18.4 runs for the replacement level adjustment and +2.1 runs for the positional adjustment (mostly 2B). This makes him 19.6 runs above replacement on the year, or rounding up, 2.0 WAR.

As a full-time DH, the batting runs and replacement adjustment stay the same, the defensive runs zero out, but he takes something like a -16 run hit for the positional adjustment (for 150 games, the DH adjustment is -17.5). That would make him about 9.2 runs above average or 0.9 WAR. Even with the poor defense, he has much more value at 2B.

And really, even if you do not like Kila (and there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about how his skills set will adapt to the majors), the free agent market is going to be flooded with 1B/DH-types (and that is not counting possible non-tenders, trade targets, or interesting minor league free agents). For Mike Jacobs money or less, a team should be able to get a much better player to play at 1B/DH.

by Gopherballs on Sep 15, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I by no means consider this an ideal solution, but a productive suggestion considering where the team is right now

WAR is a really great tool to think about the value of a particular player to an organization, but there are some limits to its application, particularly when we are not thinking about the value of a player in a static position. What you have done above is make the case that player that play a position are more valuable than players that play no position. This, of course, is true. You have also made the case that Alberto Callaspo gets some value for being a warm body that can move better than a tree to block the ball and make defensive throws. This is also true.

For thinking about the entire team, it would be best to think about offense and defense as separate sets of statistics. The reason: when you have the DH position, you can improve the defensive play while still keeping the bat in the lineup. OK, so the WAR would be lower for Callaspo (the value of him as an individual player), but does the overall TEAM do better by making a defensive improvement at 2B while keeping his bat in the lineup? Without making other moves, this might be true.

The one thing we did learn from WAR: Callaspo would still be an above-replacement level bat as a DH. Would he be pushing an even more productive bat out of the DH spot? Maybe, if you DH Brayan Pena for the game. But as for Jacobs and Kila, they both project as not as valuable (of course, nobody can be sure). Now, if you find a 1B/DH bat on the open market that the Royals can pay for (afford), sign for a short term (i.e. not hamstring the 2011 season if the player declines), and project 1 WAR or over without factoring in a position, then he would push out a more productive bat. At that point, you would have to ask the question: is Callaspo’s bat more important than the defensive improvement at 2B? Is there a better infield configuration to maximize offensive and defensive production?

Well, we know Yuni has been pretty bad by all defensive measurements at SS, and his bat is a little below average at the position (though not TPJ bad by any means). Would Aviles be better at SS than him? If yes, could Yuni play 2B at an average or above average level, and if he could, is the difference in offensive production enough to offset the loss of defensive play? It might be that when Aviles comes back, Yuni will sit.

I do not know the answers to any of these questions, as I am not an expert. However, IMO, this would have to be the set of questions the Royals would have to ask (now, I also will not defend that this is what they WILL do, as they like immeasurable standards like “grit” to factor into the evaluation).

But, I will defend that when Aviles comes back, given the players on the team now, moving Callaspo to another position (including DH) is not an unreasonable suggestion. It is certainly not orthodox, but that is a symptom of the enormous lack of hitting depth at the upper levels of the minors. But rather than just beating the “front office sucks” drum (it does) for the next 6 months, it is also possible to have a little fun thinking about how we could not watch total trash on the field next year. And given the types of constraints (lack of talent, bad contracts, defensive ineptitude, injuries) that we’re working with, it has the feeling of trying to write an elegant poem in rhyming iambic pentameter (a very rigid set of constraints indeed). If we add some players in free agency, then the cost/benefit calculation changes.

And yes, I also believe that Kila (who I like) is evidence of front office mismanagement (refusing to cut bait when they found out that Jacobs cannot get on base in favor of a player that is a little better, but certainly not great) and the team’s refusal to evaluate OBP in their calculations, not a real solution to our 2010 starting lineup. It is true that he would have helped us in 2009 with no Crisp, no Aviles, and a non-hitting Jacobs on our team, but that does not mean he will still help moving forward if we eliminate the dead weight and add other more defensively flexible and productive players. Now, if we get a healthy Ryan Shealy back in 2010 and he’s mashing, then that is also a totally different story.

by bas on Sep 15, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

For thinking about the entire team, it would be best to think about offense and defense as separate sets of statistics.

No, this is opposite of the best way to think about the entire team. The best way is to think about what players, combining offense and defense, provides the best net run production. And WAR is precisely best used in non static situations because it provides a baseline to compare players across positions using both offense and defense. Making Callaspo a 0.9 WAR DH makes no sense when teams can find 1.0 WAR 1B/DH-types on minor league contracts and especially when finding a 3.0 WAR player at 2B to replace Callaspo (which would be necessary to offset Callaspo’s loss of value with the move to DH) is much harder to find than a 1.0 WAR 1B/DH-type.

Well, we know Yuni has been pretty bad by all defensive measurements at SS, and his bat is a little below average at the position

Betancourt is not “a little below average at the position.” Betancourt has been the worst hitter in baseball with 400 AB or more this year. Betancourt gains no tangible value by moving to 2B — the negative positional adjustment will likely offset any gain in runs saved by the move. Given his bat and his defense, any scenario with Betancourt playing regularly is a bad idea.

by Gopherballs on Sep 15, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

fasho

Betancourt’s upside is Willie Bloomquist (value-wise).

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Sep 15, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Except that we'll probably be watching total trash next year

So imagining what could be done, and then watching the opposite get done with more Willie B’s brought in, will just depress us even more.

it is also possible to have a little fun thinking about how we could not watch total trash on the field next year

by AxDxMx on Sep 15, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I actually like this.

If Aviles earns it in ST, then it improves our offense and our defense up the middle. I don’t see what it will hurt. Maybe less ABs for Jose and no Jacobs on the team next year. I don’t see an issue.

by Tubmin on Sep 15, 2009 8:04 AM EDT reply actions  

There have been much worse ideas come out of KC recently.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 15, 2009 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's a high compliment

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Sep 15, 2009 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am just waiting my banishment with my article I just published at BtB

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 15, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

/heading to BtB now

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Sep 15, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not the worst idea in the world

Early prediction: Willie Bloomquist starts 140 games at 2B next year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 15, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions  

I Certainly Hope

Aviles get a fair shot at putting Yu-Bet on the bench. If he can be even 75% of his 2008 self he will be a huge improvement at the plate and in the field. With A-Gor back at 3B, the left side D will be at least average again.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 15, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

But they are paying Yuni all that money!!

No way he sits. Gullen will be playing too. Hell, even if Meche’s arm falls off, they’ll force him out there to throw lefty because he is owed $22M and no way they give him that money for doing nothing.

by AxDxMx on Sep 15, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

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