2010 NW Naturals
by Matty486 on Sep 18, 2009 10:30 AM EDT
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PrintWith the announcement of the Crow signing, I think we can now look at the AA Naturals as the team that we will all be keeping an eye on next year. Just like we did a few years back with Butler, Gordon, Greinke, Hoch, and others, I think we should pretty much load up our prospects at this level and let them play together for at least the 1st half of next season. I know that people will say that Hosmer and Moustakas haven't earned this promotion but I think it's still a good idea to get those guys out of Wilmington. If this is playing them up a little early I'm ok with it. They need to start producing against better competition.
The NW lineup should include those two along with possibly Taylor, Johnny G (not a great year but also could benefit from getting out of Wilmington), and possibly Wil Myers by the middle of the season. The rotation should incluse Crow, Duffy, Montgomery, and possibly Melville and Dwyer by the middle of the season.
I say give this group a season to play together at AA and bring them up when they're ready, probably 2011.
Thoughts?
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No way Hosmer deserves to start 2010 in AA
he can get there once he proves he can hit A-ball pitching.
I agree with the rest.
Waiting for April.
agreed
He’s one year out of high school. I know we want him to make it through the system quickly, but he has to show something first. Many didn’t think he merited the jump to high-A.
Yeah, there is a better argument to be made
for starting Hosmer in Burlington rather than NW Arkansas.
I don't think he really deserves it either
But I think it’s still the best thing for his development. I’m not saying jump anyone to the majors. Jumping him to AA a little early isn’t going to hinder his development.
Taylor only gets to
AA if he can stay out of trouble. Based on his past I would say thats 50/50 at best. I don’t think Wil Myers will sniff AA next year. He is a raw high school kid. I would be shocked if he made it to Wilmington. Hosmer should start at Wilmington. Mouse at NWA along with (from who you mentioned Duffy, Monty and Johnny G. Melville will spend the year in Wilmington unless he dominates-I am talking better than Duffy #s this year. Dwyer is a raw college pitcher too. I would be suprised to see him get to NWA at all next year. Omaha should be significantly better this coming year too with Bianchi, Lough, Dyson, Pina and Smith.
If Myers can keep up the hitting he could ascend very, very quickly
Though AA might be a stretch by the end of next year. 2012 is his target arrival date I think if he really works at catcher while keeping his hitting up. Otherwise, it might push later as he learns other positions in AA and AAA.
Disagree
I do think that Wil Myers, right now, looks like the best bat in the Royals system, but let’s be honest, he had less than one month of rookie ball. I think thy will start him in low A, and he can probably make it to Wilmington next year. But you have to remember that he also needs to learn how to be a catcher, learn to drop his strikeouts and walk a little more (though neither are terrible), etc.
Now, that being said, NWA will look pretty good. I think Hosmer stays right now. But Johnny G., Mous, and a pile of those pitchers will come up (Melville will go to High A, and Dwyer probably to Low A). If Hosmer plays well, I can see him joining NWA mid-year. But a starting rotation of Crow, Duffy, and Montgomery will look pretty darn good, along with some of those bullpen arms.
I also agree that the Omaha team looks to have some interesting prospects, though nearly all in the bullpen or on the hitting side next year. That outfield (Parraz, Lough, Smith) could be nice, along with some legit prospects up the middle in Pina and Bianchi. The pitching will probably be a little soft, especially in the bullpen, if we do what needs to be done with our major league team.
Plate discipline can be learned anywhere
What concerns me the most is his catching ability. It’s not like we have anyone in the system that would be holding him back. He is the Royals top catching prospect, unless they pull Bryce Harper out of their butt in the last 2 weeks. Do I think he’ll be in NWA by the end of next year? No, probably not, barring an amazing year. Do I think NWA and Omaha are a stretch for 2011? Only if Bryce Harper is ahead of him. So I suppose 2013 is more realistic overall, unless he turns out to be awesome.
The organization will have no trouble teaching this.
Plate discipline can be learned anywhere
I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.
The unsaid part of that was:
Plate discipline can be learned anywhere, EXCEPT in the Royals farm system.
Moustakas
I’m not sure that .254//303/.432 with crappy defense screams “promote me.” Sure, he has a Bondsian .331 OBP away from Wilmington, but I’d still err on the side of caution.
Maybe NWA would really hone his awesome leadership skillz.
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 18, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
You know
starting Moose in Omaha would shut up all of those haters who say the Royals have no legitimate prospects in the upper levels.
Our A-Ball teams
Should still be stacked as well. When you look at some of the guys that spent time in short season this year that will get their first taste of full season ball one has to be excited. Burlington should definately win the first half of title next year with guys like Keaton Hayenga, John Lamb, Chris Dwyer,Tyler Sample, Will Myers, Angel Franco, etc. coming up. As much as we hate GMDM for his major league moves it is clear (at least to me) that he is fixing our problems in the minor leagues. I would say that the proof is that three of our teams reached the post season this year. The last time I checked it took good players to do that. I fully expect Omaha to be much more competitive next season, and NWA, Wilmington, and Burlington should all be playoff favorites. What do you all think?
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
I think I'm just glad no other teams have discovered Dayton Moore's brilliant "farm team" strategy for building a team
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 18, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're underplaying the "strategy"
Sure, every team invests in the minor leagues. It’s just a matter of degree. Consider this—the Royals have one of the smallest revenues in the league, but in the last 2 years, they’ve spent as much or more than any other team in the amateur draft. They’ve also made a substantial reinvestment in scouting infrastructure, and have gone from one of the bottom teams in Latin American spending to the top 10.
Say what you want, the Royals have significantly stepped up their investment in the minor leagues since Moore took the reins, and the total investment, especially as a portion of total revenue, suggests that the Royals are now making one of the most significant investments in the minor leagues of any team in the league. This change hasn’t yet made a bit of difference in the Major League roster—it hasn’t even boiled up to AAA yet—but the success of the lower teams suggests some progress has been made at AA and below.
Here's the problem with that
You can invest all the money you want, but I’m pretty sure everyone thought their money was safe with Bernie Madoff til it was too late. Just because we are throwing money at a problem, does not mean they are fixing it.
Yes, of course you want to see your investments turning into real results
It’s only been 2/3 years, depending how you want to count that first draft when Moore was signed, but wasn’t “involved” with the draft. They’ve drafted a lot of high schoolers, and it will take more than 2/3 years to see those players make it through the system. Right now, the only results you’d really expect to see are improvements at the AA level and below, and I think we’re seeing that.
Just to be clear—I don’t think the focus at the minor league level is sufficient to build a good team in KC. I think Moore has shown that he’s weak at the MLB level, and for KC to be successful, we’ll need a GM who’s strong in every facet. Moore is signed on for quite a while still, so hopefully, he’ll be able to learn from his mistakes.
He has also shown the ability to lock up some of our "core"
Hopefully he locks up Baconator by the end of the offseason.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Hopefully those "investments" start to compound here shortly
If that happens, we could start to have a system like Oakland where we trade stars that get expensive for a bunch of young prospects.
The Royals have had that system.
See the Beltran, Appier, and Dye trades, for example.
Good point.
Though I put the blame on the owner for that. The Dye ultimatum resulted in Neifi, everyone knew Beltran was gone so we got offered crap, and I don’t remember an Appier trade.
to Oakland
for Jeff D’Mico, Brad Rigby, and Blake Stein
Link
My brother was sure Stein would come around. After all, he was traded to obtain Mark McGuire and Kevin Appier.
Yeah, I thought Stein would come around too...
I still have an autographed baseball with his signature and possibly Mike Sweeney’s. I have another ball with Johnny Damon and Mark Quinn! Wow these are valuable!!
The building of the low minors is a good development
but the Royals are playing catch up to the fifteen or so organizations that have been doing these things for the last five or ten years.
And the jury is still very much out
As to whether he will go past those 15 other teams who run a competent development system. Which is what the Royals need to do if they are going to be successful. I’m skeptical.
Needs More Bible
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 21, 2009 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone have a guess as to where
Louis Coleman starts the year next year too?
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
the FO has already publicly said that they will move Moustakas to AA next year
and I think that’s the right decision. He hasn’t done great, but he hasn’t done terribly either, and he has hit for some power. It makes sense to move him up and see what he can do in a more hitting-neutral park.
I think there’s almost no chance Johnny G doesn’t get promoted. A Hosmer promotion to start the year might be unlikely. I think they were rushing him up to High-A to get him with Moustakas, and he spent the second half of the season struggling because of it. If he does well in High-A for a couple months, they might move him up to keep talent together. As for Taylor and Myers, I don’t think they’ll entirely skip levels.
Taylor and Hosmer at the corners in Wilmington for 2010.
I’d look for Hosmer to get a midseason promotion to NWA if he starts out well. Kind of like Lough and Bianchi in 09 – that worked out well. I’d predict that Myers will spend all of the 2010 season in Burlington due to his inexperience as a catcher more than his bat. Myers will need the reps and will probably lose some with S. Perez being in the mix as well. Splitting time may be a good way to keep them both strong as the season goes on.
Now that Hosmer can see
I bet he doesn’t have as big an issue hitting. Post laser surgery, he seemed to hit better and for more power, but I could be completely wrong.
Jin-ho and other thoughts
I’m interested in seeing what the Korean teenage catcher can do. I guess he’s starting in the instructional league this fall. He’s just 17 (or 18 now) but he was supposed to be a good sign.
From what I saw in the stats, Myers was starting to throw out base runners at the end of the season in IF. The first two weeks he caught he didn’t throw anybody out.
If it weren’t for Orem’s crazy-good second half, Idaho Falls would have made the playoffs as well. The Chukars finished the season 43-31 with the second-best record in the Pioneer League.
I agree with Omaha. It seems like they will have some good offensive production — Kila, Bianchi, Lough, Parraz, Smith, Aldridge and maybe the two guys from the DG trade.
go royals
Ditto on seeing Jin-ho
and Cheslor Cuthbert in the rookie leagues next year. It’s easy to overlook these international guys since they take so much longer to develop, e.g. 2007 16-yr-old bonus babies Yowill Espinal, Geulin Beltre, Samuel Carmona, Vinci Pereira and Edul Escobar. They start so far behind—they were essentially H.S. seniors this year playing in rookie leagues with 2nd year draft picks and college guys—and so many bust because tools are all they can be judged on in Latin America at 14-15. But there is some reason to think of upside: Espinal led a bad little Burlington team in OPS, Beltre saw a pretty good increase in power going from the AZL to Burlington, and Escobar caught in America for the first time this year in the AZL (the other two guys are still playing in the Dominican League). We never think about these guys, partially because it takes so long for them to show results to get excited about, but these are the types of players who eventually wind up being Major League middle infielders and catchers.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 18, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The Naturals should reflect most of the 09 Blue Rocks
In the field, I would guess Clint Robinson 1B, Johnny G. 2B (his season at Wilmington was impressive when you get past the raw numbers), Chad McConnell at SS and Moustakas at 3B. I see Bianchi moving to Omaha to start the season. OF will include D. Robinson, Orlando and perhaps Walton. I could see McFall returning to AA at 1B/OF. Probably a holdover or minor league veteran for OF depth, too. Catching – just can’t see Eigsti getting promoted at NWA since he doesn’t hit. I’d guess it will be a mix of AA veterans like we saw in 09.
Pitching staff should be stacked with prospects: Duffy, Montgomery, Crow, Sisk, Coleman, Abreu should lead the way. I’d predict that Paulino, Teaford, Blake Wood will be there. In the pen, it will be competitive. In the past few years, KC has signed quite a few minor league FAs who have taken roster spots but with the improved depth from within I don’t see as great a need for 2010.
What about Lerew?
He HAS to move up, right?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Or out
AAA strikes me as his ceiling—did he not start the season in Omaha? He’s been good pitching below level, but, who wouldn’t be? Put him in Omaha’s rotation and find out if he has any value at all a la DiNardo.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 18, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
My thoughts
The NW lineup should include those two along with possibly Taylor, Johnny G (not a great year but also could benefit from getting out of Wilmington), and possibly Wil Myers by the middle of the season.
I don’t think that Taylor has proven he deserves a call up. He has a good bat, yes, but with his problems the last several years, why reward a player? Make him toil the ballpark in Wilmington and prove he is done with his problems before he comes up to NW.
Johnny G should move.
Wil Myers should not move above A+ next year. He should start in Burlington as a Bee and hit there for a while. Maybe he can equal what Mous did there. He isn’t ready defensively to move above A ball so until he gets all that figured out (is he at instructs?) he shouldn’t move up to A+ no matter how many covers he knocks off of baseballs.
The rotation should incluse Crow, Duffy, Montgomery, and possibly Melville and Dwyer by the middle of the season.
I think if Crow has a good fall this year and a solid spring training he should be there by the middle of the season. I don’t really see why we should start him there but I think it’s a very strong possibility that he does.
Duffy and Montgomery: Yes.
Melville. No, he’s still developing his offspeed to match his fastball. He’s got a great but not consistant breaking pitch. He needs to fix the fastball command and stay away from large counts (which will cut walks down). He should start the season in A+ and if he is lucky, get a cup of coffee with the AA club UNLESS he is tearing the league to pieces.
Dwyer. No. From what I’ve read he has great stuff but he needs to get it all together consistantly. The Royals were drooling over him but that doesn’t mean he just shows up in AA at the end of the year. I think he starts at Burlington Iowa and moves from there. I don’t think he makes it above A+ next year. But the year after, depending on the season of course, I could see him in AA.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
From what I've read, the Independent League that Hochevar and Crow both pitched in
is a lot like AA. That’s probably the best argument to start him there. Plus, if he’s that good, he could probably be up for September next year. That’s kind of the point of giving him an MLB contract. The Royals must think he’ll be here very soon.
You hear that argument a lot
But to me, if it’s like AA, why aren’t more player signed out of there?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
It's made up of washed MLB guys and career minor leaguers
That sounds about like AA talent level to me. You don’t see many signed out of there because it’s where the Ken Harveys, Jose Limas, and Rickey Hendersons of the world go to die.
“You don’t see many signed out of there because it’s where the Jose Limas of the world go to die to wait to be signed by the Royals.”
by marbotty on Sep 19, 2009 5:11 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rickey could teach DDJ to steal bases.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Ricky Don't Teach
Nobody throw out Ricky.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 21, 2009 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
How about the Bees' pitching next year?
Ivor Hodgson was pretty good for less than half a season there and I would assume would return, and rookie leaguers who have a chance of joining him in the rotation include Lamb, Dwyer, Paukovitz (who had a nice 57/18 K/BB ratio), Nick Wooley (40/10), Tyler Sample (2.84, 44/20), Greg Billo (1.81, 51/16), and Leondy Perez, who struck out almost a batter an inning in Burlington (3.84, 62/21 in 63.1 IP).
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 18, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions
The Bees should be another post
BUT it looks like they will be loaded next year on the mound as well.
This is all taking place because we put the extra low A team in. I remember making the comment to a friend that this is a great addition for us because it opens a spot for more guys in our system as well as more competition to move up to a new level.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
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