At What Point Are the Royals Hurting Themselves Long-Term by Winning in September?
by royalsreview on Sep 21, 2009 5:23 PM EDT
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Thanks to their late season 10-3 spurt, the Royals have risen/fallen (its impossible to ever use the right phrase in these situations) from the second overall pick in next season's MLB Amateur Draft into a tie with Cleveland for the fourth pick. (Thanks to 306008 for posting the standings so diligently.)
Getting back to the second overall pick now looks extremely unlikely, though third could still easily be reached. Just eyeballing it, I'd say the odds are at least 80% that the Royals end up in the 3-4-5 range, although ending up somewhere around the eighth pick isn't inconceivable.
Let's clear up something right away however: there is no such thing as year to year momentum. There's too much noise in these guy's lives over the off-season (you know, their actual lives, to say nothing of winter ball, FA comings and goings, whether or not they had a good September, etc.) to think that some emotional feeling, even if that did mean something, would be sustained from October to March. Momentum is having good players. If this hot September is a product of having good players, that's one thing, but it has little to do with "finishing strong".
When thinking about the Royals and the 2010 Draft, there's a few ways of looking at it:
- Yes, the baseball draft is unique, and on the whole everything is a big guess and you hope to get lucky. That being said, all picks are not equal. Most years, there's a few prospects that rate out way higher than everyone else, and after that, it's pretty much up to individual preference. I'd hate to see the Royals sitting at 5 next year, and have everyone excited about the top four guys. Maybe it will work out like this, maybe it won't. Draftniks?
- A possible positive for the Royals is that if they fall/rise from #2 to #5 in the draft, they may end up saving a nice amount of bonus money, which hopefully could be spread around to an overslot choice for someone awesome later on. The contracts signed with top picks are getting increasingly complicated however, and the Royals might not gain any real financial savings at all, their reward might be something like an extra year at a lower salary or less guaranteed money, or somesuch.
- As a fan, do these wins mean less to you than they might have had they had been randomly distributed earlier in the season? For me, the answer is yes. There was a point in the season when, on a game by game basis, I more or less checked out emotionally. Other than Greinke starts, I don't really care about the wins and losses anymore. Even if it meant going 0-17 or something this month, this 10-3 run, had it come in mid-May, would have been insanely fun. The Royals are back in the hunt!
- Hillman and Moore were already secure, so this hot streak has done little in that regard. The Royals were also already setup for another suicide run at contention in 2010 as well, because Dayton Moore has been in win-now mode for three years. These things are all annoying, but we can't blame them on Fool's Gold in September.
Had the Mets or Diamondbacks just been a little bit worse, this would be much more interesting. The Royals are 3.5 games ahead/behind from those two teams, and five off from Toronto. From where I sit, falling from the second pick to the eighth thanks to a hot streak when no one cared anymore would suck. Second to fifth or fourth however... meh.
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I understand where you are coming from, I feel that way myself
We complain when they lose, and now we complain when they win. The Royals just can’t win. I know at this point in the season we’re hoping for the best draft pick possible, but it does hurt a fan’s credibility a bit when they openly cheer for losses. I’d rather see the Royals win, if they lose, I don’t care as much because I know it’s getting us a better draft pick. They can’t go out and tank it, we surely wouldn’t want to see that. I’m tired and rambling. Goodnight RR, I’ll be dreaming of a Greinke Cy Young.
by AxDxMx on Sep 21, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't care about the draft
I didn’t want to spend record money on a 17 year old catcher.
What bothers me, is that like last year (and this April) this will be held up by Dayton Moore as evidence that this team is fundamentally sound and not far away. That is far FAR more damaging to this team in the long term than dropping a few slots in the draft. Instead of major changes, we will now go into next year with pretty much the same players/ideas as this year. And Dayton will be truly, honestly, stumped when we fall flat again.
by kcbottom9th on Sep 21, 2009 5:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't wait for Dayton to accuse Poz of gunning for a position with the team
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 21, 2009 7:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I would think that trying to bring sabermetrics to this organization
would place one in a special level of Hell. Trying to convince your employer to do something, using information that not only do they not understand, but actively work hard to deny exists or is useful.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Sep 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed. It wasn’t a serious comment, given that Poz just got what he said was his actual dream job.
by 2X2L on Sep 21, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
This is the biggest danger of September success, not draft position damage. I actually trust the organization more with the the fifth+ pick in the draft than the second or third because I think there’s more of a “let’s get the best high school bat/high school arm/college arm/whatever” approach than “okay, those best guys are gone, who is the best player left at this spot” approach, which has really benefitted the organization in the supp/second thru fifth rounds the last three years (see Duffy, Montgomery, Melville, Myers, Dwyer).
But if Moore does what he did last year—forget the futility of the summer which produced a promise of massive overhaul based on the anomly of a fluky September—then he’s going to make the same bad decisions this offseaon thinking “We’re only one or two guys away.” It’s funny (well, not in the humorous way) that Dayton wants me to trust the process he spent the last year ignoring himself due to a September “resurgence.” I would rather have had Moore spend the offseason thinking that 2009 was theabsolute failure that it was than to have any reason to hope he did anything right this year. As long as he learned from last September, then winning is winning, and I’m glad for it. If he hasn’t learned, than this September is not winning, as short-term winning will mean more long-term losing, and that’s bad for all but the least “invested” fan.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 21, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no doubt
but I think that Moore already felt that way
by royalsreview on Sep 21, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strasburg's record money comes down to this:
2009: $2.6 million total ($2.5 million in bonus & $100K in pro-rated salary)
2010: $4.5 million total ($2.5 million in bonus & $2 million in salary)
2011: $5.0 million total ($2.5 million in bonus & $2.5 million in salary)
2012: $3.0 million total (all salary)
Admit it. He didn’t break the bank. Sure, if that’s all up front he does, but that’s kind of the point. The risk is spread out over years.
by AxDxMx on Sep 21, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not bank breaking at all...
still a great job by boras, a great deal for strasburg and the nats. Think about it….thats pretty much like paying Kyle Farnsworth for 4 years….I have a feeling that Strasburg will be significantly better than Farns.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which is exactly why I don't get the sentiment about a 17 year old catcher
breaking the bank. He won’t. He’ll get a ton of money guaranteed, but over time, it’s no worse than picking up a veteran free agent, with huge potential upside.
by AxDxMx on Sep 21, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they give a Major league deal
To a 17 year old catcher, they are dumb in the extreme. That is the only mechanism to spread the payments unless he is a two sport athlete (which he isn’t). Pick your poison, give him a huge bonus in one go, or put a 17 year old catcher from a weak HS competition who was completely over matched in the HS Classic on the 40 man roster and start burning his options.
What do you do?
by kcbottom9th on Sep 21, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if he's as good as advertised it wont matter.....
more than likely he wont see any action next summer….meaning he’ll be 18 in 2011 when he starts playing and he’ll have like 4 options….the majority of elite HS prospects reach the majors by the age of 22
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he is that good, the options won't matter
If he isn’t, we cut bait, or expose him to waivers. At that point we won’t care because he obviously isn’t what we thought he was.
Most of these elite talents like this (Griffey Jr., ARod, etc.) debuted before they were 20. So 2 years in the minors and he’s here by 2012 then unless he’s a colossal bust.
by AxDxMx on Sep 21, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The big gap in talent is between #1 & #2. It’s not unlikely that the number 2 player on our board will be available at #5. Plus we can save some money. There’s no way we were going to be as bad as the Natinals this year.
by sfeldkamp on Sep 21, 2009 7:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bullet 3 is right on the money Royal
This team was so horrible and Moore was so fucking disrespectful/arrogant I wanted him to feel pain. I actually wanted someone to physically hurt him. Not sure how you feel about this, but when someone exhibits that type of behavior as Moore did in defending his trades, glorifying his positive moves (and praising Hillman" and belittling “common fans” with his condescending attitude II think he is a worthless human being and I could care less if he lives.
You may find this a bit extreme, but it’s the truth.
by GobbleforCyoung on Sep 21, 2009 8:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's ridiculous
I think he is utterly useless at his job. But to suggest that you wouldn’t mind if he died tomorrow (widowing his wife and orphaning 3 young children in the process) is the talk of a sick individual.
by kcbottom9th on Sep 21, 2009 8:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take it easy, Gobble
I realize that these are not threats or anything, but it is clear that at least some levels of the organization visit this (and other) sites.
At the very least, it hurts the credibility of this website and of other posters here when you mention physical violence toward members of the organization. At worst, you’re running a risk of writing something that could potentially be construed as a threat.
A lot of us can’t stand DM as a general manager, but when you shift the focus to him as a human being, it may be a good idea to step away from the team for a while, at least so that you don’t take it so personally.
I don’t mean to tell you how to act as a fan, but when you make comments like that, it affects others here too.
"You know what, I mean I cried in bed for a while, moaning 'Why!? Why did this have to happen?'"
Zack Greinke on the Brad Pitt - Jennifer Aniston split
by DCRoyals on Sep 21, 2009 11:48 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t want to pile on, Gobs, so I won’t say much, just that I think DC’s advice is good. If this stuff affects you like that, shifting your attention to something else has got to be a good step to take.The kinds of feelings you describe can’t be doing you any good.
by 2X2L on Sep 21, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If this September is going to be good for anything
hopefully it will illustrate to the front office that the bullpen issues could have been solved internally. I cannot even really blame Hillman for his bullpen issues because look at the riff raff he had to run out there. I mean it is really pick your poison between Lamey Wrong and Roman Colon and all the other losers we had out there. The bullpen has to be a revolving door that is filled from within the organization. Can you imagine how much better this team’s record would have been if they would have just called up a few different arms during the year and DFA’d or DL’d the sucktastic six earlier? Maybe everyone involved has learned an important lesson:
THE BULLPEN IS FLUID, AND MUST BE TREATED AS SUCH. THERE ARE NO SACRED COWS (outside of Soria of course).
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
by Gantz9 on Sep 21, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tejeda is a sacred cow
Though his bullpen days may be over
"You know what, I mean I cried in bed for a while, moaning 'Why!? Why did this have to happen?'"
Zack Greinke on the Brad Pitt - Jennifer Aniston split
by DCRoyals on Sep 21, 2009 11:50 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I think this is an interesting point
If something productive comes of the winning aside from winning for winning’s sake (which has a decreased value as the season wears on and the team is further out), then some good is certainly coming from it.
Does that outweigh the bad its doing? Well, that’s the basic business question we’re asking, I suppose.
by sterlingice on Sep 21, 2009 12:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Tejada was in the pen almost all year and rarely used. How does non use of Tejada
square with “i cannot blame Hillman”? or the misuse and over pitching of Juan Cruz, the non-use of Soria, the lack of a discernible rational pattern with the entire bull pen in terms of keeping them sharp and ready, failure to figure out that pitching certain arms in back to back games rarely works, etc. etc. etc.
by Coach Feb on Sep 21, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If i remember right Tejeda went on the DL about the time that the
bullpen emploded. Then we all know about the shoddy managment of injuries by this coaching staff. I would also argue that Tejeda was never a trusted quantity in the bullpen. It seemed like Hillman always had to have another reliver up when he came in because no one knew whether or not he was going to be able to throw strikes. I think that Tejeda is doing better as a starter because he isn’t throwing as hard, not because he suddenly became a control specialist.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
by Gantz9 on Sep 21, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a good point
I used to be a pretty good golfer (my handicap was a 3 at one point) that would swing out of my shoes to crush the ball. I would try to hit it as hard as I could and sometimes the results were disastrous. If I laid off a bit and just took a nice fluid swing at it, it was more likely to be in play and still be a very long shot off of the tee. I suspect that may be what has happened here with Tejeda. He got pretty good throwing as hard as he could in relief, and now that he’s backed off as a starter for longer stamina he is able to throw pitches where he wants them with ease.
Tejeda’s interesting splits:
2005 – better as a starter in Philly – http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=tejedro01&year=2005&t=p#sprel
2006 – k/9 dipped while giving out too many walks as starter only in Texas
2007 – k/9 raised, but SO/BB only went slightly down, gave up 17 homers in 19 starts
2008 – traded to Royals, pitched well in relief, 1 spot start for 5 IP and 1 ER
2009 – k/9 dips by 2 Ks in difference for relief and starting, but SO/BB actually goes up thanks to less walks, BAA is .117, BABIP is .170
In short, it looks like this is entirely because of him not walking batters, and an unsustainable BABIP rate (with this defense at least). If he truly has found his control, this could be a huge development, but he’s pitching over his head right now due to some favorable luck.
by AxDxMx on Sep 21, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since football started (way back at training camp)
I haven’t paid much attention to Dayton’s mess. However, I see that Tejeda is starting. So, how come it is simple for him to suddenly be changed (and succeed) at being a starter but when the talk was about Soria it was a wall of worry and that it would take an entire season to “stretch him out” to be a starter?
Air Cassel - approved for takeoff
by kabrink on Sep 22, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Somebody pointed that out in another thread
I thought it was a very good point.
by AxDxMx on Sep 22, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only have cared about Greinke and Butler for a while now;
however, now that we have (somehow) caught Cleveland, I would like to go ahead and finish 4th instead of 5th.
Why? I don’t know. I guess it’s something. Of course, to feign pride over this is to ignore the fact that Cleveland acknowledged it’s situation and committed to rebuilding, while the Royals continued to live in denial. Yeah, other than that, it would feel good to pass them for fourth.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 21, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
one bright side of falling in position in the draft
is that there’s almost always a talent who falls b/c of asking for a high bonus. as long as a team’s willing to pony up, which the Royals have been, then you can still get pretty good players in picks 6 through 12.
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
by benfunke on Sep 21, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm glad they're winning
It means that they never really gave up, but just got beaten. It means the team is still trying to fulfill its ultimate duty to the fans, which is to try to win every time they take the field. And yes, I do think fourth place feels better than last place.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Sep 21, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another take
A few folks with inside connections have dropped hints here and there that the state of the front office since the Royals tanked this year has been near to panic, and that, among other things, is a disadvantageous state to be in when entering any sort of negotiation. So, if winning a few meaningless games in September chills them out a little, it might reduce the likelihood that they makes moves that are stupid and futile. If I’m feeling especially hopeful, I might even believe it might calm them down enough for them to contemplate why every move they’ve made in the last 12 months was in fact stupid and futile, and, as is the #1 hope of some of us for this offseason, learn from the mistakes.
And maybe not. But, I find it hard to understand the folks who have posted elsewhere that they’re pissed off that the team is winning these games. Just don’t get it, even though I read the posts. Moore and Hillman are going to be back next year regardless, and drafting order — once you get past the biggest fish — guarantees nothing, so what the heck. Meanwhile, look at that, Davies can get just enough major league hitters out sometimes to make things amusing.
by 2X2L on Sep 21, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Dayton has made it pretty clear
that he is not someone that will learn from his mistakes – or from anything else. “I really don’t understand these stats, I really don’t.” As others have pointed out many times, he still thinks this is a great team that just happened to get injured (but that’s not an excuse) – they did go 18-11 or whatever the hell it was.
Air Cassel - approved for takeoff
by kabrink on Sep 22, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it impossible for him to learn? Even Trey Hillman, who doesn’t exactly strike me as a quick learner, picked up the trick of a 5-out save.
Yes, what Moore said to the press and on the air this summer was ridiculous. But the stuff you say when you’re defending your position isn’t necsessarily what you’re thinking when you take action.
So, I’m going to wait to see what he does this offseason to judge his ability to learn. You may be right, and we’ve already seen the full measure of Dayton Moore. But it doesn’t cost me anything to hope for something better. The Glasses have made sure I have years to catch up to your way of thinking, if need be.
by 2X2L on Sep 22, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Slightly off subject...
It was mentioned to me by my good buddy Ben (benny1982) that if the Royals can manage to go 8-5 over these last 13 games, we will end the season with the same 18-11 stretch we started it with.
Nuttier than squirrel shit.
by brandonh981 on Sep 21, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yup, I'm on it
and it would be excellent evidence that 18-11 isn’t especially indicative of anything.
But Yankees, Red Sox, and Twins still in the hunt stand in the way, so I was saving that for later.
by 2X2L on Sep 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FA effects
Probably wishful thinking here, but ya gotta think this hot streak, especially if it results in a not-last-place finish, might help make Kansas City a slightly more attractive destination for free agents.
There’s no guarantee that better free agents would actually show up in Kansas City, but if Dayton had a few more to choose from perhaps he wouldn’t be so compelled to rationalize overpaying for players like Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth.
by RocketCy on Sep 21, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
my main concern has been expressed above
that Moore and Hillman will see the better play at the end of the year and think that they don’t need to do much to win now. So, the idea of signing players like Olivo and Jacobs to long term deals will look attractive. I really, really hope that they evaluate the whole season, not just this little hot spurt at the end when they make personnel moves this winter.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Sep 21, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I get that
but I doubt that fewer wins in September would make them better evaluators of what they’ve got.
Jacobs has been worse in September than he was in April; if they resign him it won’t be because of anything that happened on the field.
by 2X2L on Sep 21, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is just the dead cat bounce
This was a bad team, just not quite as bad the record may indicate. Things even out over time — Roman Colon is not very good, but over time, he is not going to give up HRs at the rate of one for every five fly balls.
Regression is usually associated with bad things — you mean Willie Bloomquist is not going to keep hitting 350/450/550? The Royals aren’t going to 18-11 every 29 games? — but it works the other way too. While not very good overall, Kyle Farnsworth, John Bale, and others are not as bad as they have been at times this year.
by Gopherballs on Sep 21, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
note on tejada/eda
His HR/FB rate is under 2% this season. That is insanely lucky
Just a word of caution.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 21, 2009 5:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
it might be easier to just learn how to spell tejeda....save yourself some keystrokes maybe....
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
more efficient
Teja/eda
Air Cassel - approved for takeoff
by kabrink on Sep 22, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I need a forum to make fun of lenny dinardo..
and to bitch about my fantasy fb team, so a game thread would be greatly appreciated.
thanks,
bbb
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Sep 21, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a call to all those that have the Royals preseason projections for individual players
I’m wondering if the numbers were pegged by any system, and if anyone significantly outperformed/underperformed expectations. I’m thinking they were all underperforming til this late season run (other than Billy and Zack).
by AxDxMx on Sep 22, 2009 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
here are some offensive projections
that I collated at the beginning of the season, although I’d do them differently now.
The FanGraphs’ player pages have the CHONE, Oliver, ZiPS, Marcels, and (notoriously bad) Bill James 2009 preseason projections on them.
You’re pretty much right. Banny and Hochevar did outpitch their projections. Callaspo also has far exceed the better projections. As has Olivo, actually. Buck and Brayan have also outhit their projections in limited playing time.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 22, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks d_f
I’m on Fangraphs a fair amount when I’m looking at WAR and had forgotten they have the projections on the page. I kind of feel like the Royals should have been playing better baseball all along, were really unlucky, and this is a regression to the mean for them.
by AxDxMx on Sep 23, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Winning
Winning is always good. It shows the fans and themselves that they can win, end the year on a positive. It doesn’t matter if the Royals are picking 2-3-4 or 5, there will be good players there to take. Look, the baseball draft is a crapshoot, but the Royals don’t need to worry about what number they are picking but rather make better decisions on who they are drafting. 3 players taken AFTER Moustakas made it to the majors early this year and he is still in A ball.
by TampaRoyal on Sep 22, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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