Afternoon Royals Links: Is Robinson Tejeda the New Kyle Davies?

by Freneau on Sep 21, 2009 3:30 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

Royals:

Royal Reflections: Tejeda does it again

Royally Speaking: Random and pointless numbers post

Discussion: Disappointing First Base Prospects - Minor League Ball (Hosmer involved)

Royals on Radio Etc: Reading between the lines

Baseball:

Grab Bag:

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I think I called Tejeda "another Kyle Davies" when the Royals claimed him

They are similar pitchers — good raw stuff but wobbly command and control. And of course, Tejeda is having a good September just like Davies last year.

As a starter, Tejeda has cut his walk rate from 6.2 BB/9 to 4.1 BB/9. This big of difference, however, may not last because his percentage of balls dropped only modestly from 38% as a reliever to 36% as a starter.

The very good news is that he has maintained his swinging strike rate — 13.6% as a reliever to 13.4% as a starter. Similarly, his strikeout rate dipped only slightly from 11.8 K/9 to 9.7 K/9. Overall, his K/BB rate has improved from 1.9 as a reliever to 2.4 as a starter.

These are all very good developments, but given the very small sample size (only 22 IP as a starter) and his history of command and control problems, we are still a long way off from saying that Tejeda has “cured” his problems.

Also similar to Davies last year, Tejeda is running an unsustainably low HR/FB rate of 1.4% — like BABIP generally regressing to around .300, HR/FB generally regresses to around 10-11%. As for BABIP, Tejeda also is unlikely to keep up a .260 BABIP, even with an excellent LD% of 15.8% (which should slide closer to 20% over time).

His pitch type values also show another good development. While Tejeda’s fastball and change have generally been good pitches for him over the years, his slider has gone from below average in previous years to pretty good this year. With a solid change, it should help him with platoon issues.

Overall, I think it is OK to be cautiously optimistic about him as a starter. If he can keep missing bats at a high rate and maintain a K/BB right around 2.0 K/BB, Tejeda can be a solid (but flawed) starter. But like Davies, Tejeda’s short-term success as a starter may be a sample size issue. Or it may be genuine improvement, even if he is not as good as he has been over these starts. At this point, we do not have enough information to really know.

The important thing is that the organization does not need to know the answer this September — with the state of the Royals, the team can pencil him into the rotation without committing to him long-term. And as others have previously noted, if he flames out as a starter, he can just slide back into the pen.

by Gopherballs on Sep 21, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I wonder if it's worth it to "save" rural America

I like the Norman Rockwell ideal as much as anyone, but what with the internets and all, I imagine its nearly impossible to convince a smart kid to stick it out in Muncie, Indiana or wherevever.

And I’m not sure why we want that kid to stay in Muncie. I guess it’s sad if Muncie becomes a meth-wracked ghost town, but if we only need 1% of the population to be farmers, I’m not sure I see the point in keeping people out in the sticks.

Interesting stuff.

by hippdoghipp on Sep 21, 2009 5:27 PM EDT reply actions

I agree

It’s like the Amish. No one would dream of actually joining them, and living like them. Yet you see smart, educated commentators lamenting the fact that young Amish kids leave and never return. What hypocrisy, and snobbery that shows. What they are saying is- I wouldn’t do it, but it’s cute to watch others do it.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 21, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it's cool RR

That you are keeping yourself interested in the political theatrics north of the border. Someone needs to I guess, everyone up here is bored out of their mind that another election is looming on the horizon. With the same script as always. Conservatives staying boring and steady, Liberals eating themselves from inside, the NDP sniping around the edges making a lot of noise but not much impact and the Bloc slowly and surely tightening their grip on Quebec. ZZZZZZZZZ. I’m biased, I live in Calgary Southwest- guess who is MP for there. That makes it even more dull, because the result is a foregone conclusion here (and Alberta in general, sadly).

Wake me up when something different happens.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 21, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions