Too Many Men Stranded, As Red Sox Sink Royals
That was lame.
We can talk about all the wasted scoring chances or the absolutely perfect moment of Treyball, when St. Willie pinch-hit for Alex Gordon late in the game, if you want. For me however, the story from this game was a decent start by Luke Hochevar that suddenly went very wrong.
Here's the thing, a pitcher that is good sometimes and bad sometimes, he isn't an enigma. No, he's just a bad pitcher. Maybe he's good enough to stay in the rotation, unlike guys who are just always bad, but still, he's a bad pitcher. Hochevar was born in 1983, so he's not incredibly young. He's actually older than Greinke, believe it or not. Maybe this is what he is.
0 recs |
19 comments
Comments
But at least...
Yeah, I can’t think of anything positive.
by NotAHippie on Sep 24, 2009 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My thing is...
I want to like Hochevar. I want him to succeed because somewhere, deep inside, he has talent. We’ve all seen it with his 80-some pitch CG and his 3-hitter the other day. But you can’t put six or seven bad games in between a couple of brilliant games. Unless you’re Bloomquist.
by KyleM on Sep 24, 2009 12:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hochevar to the bullpen to start 2010.
if he can put up a good first half in the pen, move him back to the rotation. or, just leave him there. Get him down to 2-3 pitches, focus on throwing strikes, and I bet he could be a really good reliever. Does it suck if our #1 draft pick tops out as a good reliever? Yeah, but at this point he’s a 6.20 ERA disaster, and he’s not getting any younger. Either way, I think you have to move either Davies or Hochevar to the pen, or maybe both and sign somebody in the offseason to fill out the rotation. It would be one thing if Hoch was having merely an average year, but when the ERA is above 6 and you’re over 100IP, you’re just in Jose Lima territory. At this point I think it is becoming fairly obviously the whole starting rotation thing is not working out for him, and it would probably be wise to make some sort of change. AAA didn’t do anything, so we’re running low on options.
-
by slayor on Sep 24, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm gonna disagree...
i think it’s at least a season to early to be able to say anything definitive about what Hochevar might become. Maybe two seasons. Pitchers develop at their own rates. What we know about Luke is that he has shown flashes of brilliance and that he works his ass off. What we also know is that he’s prone to the blow-up. Often that has to do with temperament. He cares too much and loses it and makes small problems big problems. Also he’s pitching in front of a terrible defense. Both of those issues can be helped. Many pitchers take a couple of years to learn how to control themselves on the mound. Can “slow things down” and learn how not to get overwhelmed in pressure situations. If he improves that and the Royals get a better defense then there’s no reason he can’t be a very good SP before he becomes a FA.
Also, because of the nature of his struggles, it seems to me that inserting him into high leverage situations is perhaps the worst way to foster him.
by billexgordler on Sep 24, 2009 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bright spot of the game:
Another good night from Maier.
OBP up to 339 for the season, and somewhere in the upper 300s since the AS break.
Small sample size caveats aside – I’m beginning to think Mitch could become a 350 OBP guy playing full time. Sure, his slugging will most likely never exceed much more than 400 – but combined with his affordable salary status, his above avg defense, and decent baserunning skills, he should definitely be considered a potential solution to one of the starting OF holes going forward. Excellent stopgap candidate – will be cheap for 3 or 4 more years, and he is just now 27, so we won’t really want him after the 3 or 4 cheap years.
Wonder how Moore will botch this decision?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 24, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trey moves are puzzling.
Tuesday night at the game, I was wondering why the hell you would take Mitch Maier into right, so you could put Josh Anderson in CF, when Teahen is completely adequate in right, and Anderson is crap in CF. Also, the move of Callaspo to 3rd and Gordon out seems to me to indicate that Gordon’s days at 3rd are numbered. Is this the dumbest management team ever? I’m going to say that it is quite possible. They are at least top 10 all time.
by AxDxMx on Sep 24, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dumbest (manager) ever fits. and equally puzzling
that anyone (except a red sox fan that posted it) has yet to question
Hillman leaving Hochevar in through that debacle and again endangering a pitcher’s arm.
by Coach Feb on Sep 24, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trade Hochever and Teahen and Soria
To Tampa Bay. Like that other guy said.
StonewallPDS
by StonewallPDS on Sep 24, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Given the pitch-tipping stuff we've heard about
it is possible that he hasn’t fully corrected these issues. I’m grasping here, trying to look at silver lining, but maybe he needs an offseason to get rid of whatever the old habits were.
"You know what, I mean I cried in bed for a while, moaning 'Why!? Why did this have to happen?'"
Zack Greinke on the Brad Pitt - Jennifer Aniston split
by DCRoyals on Sep 24, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was wondering this:
maybe he corrected the pitch tipping from the windup, but not from the stretch?
Who the hell knows – all I know is it’s frustrating to watch a guy with seemingly above average stuff put up such erractic performances. Seriously, watching his pitches/movement, if you didn’t know and had to guess, you would say that’s an above avg pitcher there. I’m a big Bob McClure fan – but this is one instance when we badly need him to work some magic and help Hochevar reach his potential. If it doesn’t start to happen soon (i.e., early next season), I’m afraid it may never happen.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 24, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he already plants his foot on the ball of his foot instead of the heel
I don’t know if Bobby Mac’s got anything else.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 24, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't corrected it at all
It’s an issue they are leaving for the offseason. Hochevar said after his last start that he won (not the Boston debacle) that he told Greinke it had “gotten too complicated” and he was just going to go out and pitch. I would imagine correcting part of your delivery in season would be a recipe for a huge disaster. He’ll work on it this offseason, as well as lean on some contacts. In fact, it would be worth it for the Royals to pick up a cheap FA from one of the teams that know what he was doing, just so he can fix it.
by AxDxMx on Sep 24, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
note that hochevar's FIP and tRA are right around league average
Such a performance as a 26 year-old reliever in AAA turned chris hayes into a media darling, btw
But seriously, Luke has been disappointing fasho, but perhaps it might be a problem for a gb pitcher them you MI consists of two of the worst at their position in baseball. Butler and Gordon haven’t been good lately, either, but bert and yuni….
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by devil_fingers on Sep 24, 2009 12:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
those are good points, DF
but….
I think his “stuff” is good enough to be ABOVE avg., not just avg. Is the Royals infield defense bad enough to cause this large of a discrepancy? It is pretty damn bad, I suppose that is possible.
I understand what FIP indicates – he is league avg with the stuff he can control. Can a defense be bad enough to turn what should be a 4.35 ERA guy into a 6.00 ERA guy? If so, then we have NO HOPE for this franchise, because Moore doesn’t think his middle infield is a problem area!
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 24, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just defense, but also the quality of relievers and plain old bad luck
One of the reasons ERA is a bad way to evaluate pitchers is that when a pitcher leaves the game with a men on base, his ERA is suddenly at the mercy of the reliever. Think about it — if a starter leaves with a man on first, and the reliever gives up a home run, the starter’s ERA takes a hit. But if the starter leaves with the bases loaded, and the reliever proceeds to strike out the side without anyone scoring, the starter’s ERA is spared. The Royals middle relief has been terrible this year, which also hurts the starters in front of them.
Defense can play a pretty dramatic role — in 2008, Kevin Millwood had a decent FIP (4.02) but lousy ERA (5.07) pitching in front of the worst defense in baseball according to UZR. In 2009, while pitching in front of one of the better defenses in baseball, Millwood has a decent ERA (3.79) even though his FIP (4.88) is worse due to less strikeouts, more walks, and more HRs allowed.
A couple of indicators suggest that Hochevar has been truly “unlucky” this year. I think we all know about BABIP now. Hochevar’s BABIP is .325, one of the worst in the league. But his batted ball profile has been very good — only 17.9% line drive rate (one of the better in the league) and an above average 46.5% groundball rate. Pitchers with these rates should not have a 325 BABIP — it should be close to 300.
Another indicator of luck that gets less attention but is sill important is strand rate or LOB%. Average is around 70% and over time, most pitchers regress to somewhere between between 65% and 75%. Hochevar’s LOB% is 60% — dead last in the league (hey look, Bannister is second worst with 62%). This should regress too.
This is not to say Hochevar has his problems — he certainly does. But if you put an average defense and bullpen behind him, he probably starts to look like at least a decent fourth starter.
by Gopherballs on Sep 24, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good points
One could argue that his strand rate is very low because of his propensity to give up the big inning (like last night). It just seems like he is either cruising, or it all falls apart without him being able to put the brakes on at least a little bit and limit the damage.
I know I shouldn’t believe he won’t regress to more normal rates in this area – after all, this is essentially the reverse argument of Player X being “clutch” or not.
I want to look up how he has done from the stretch vs the windup – perhaps that is the main culprit? Avg allowed with men on base vs bases empty should do it, right?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 24, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, here is some research on Luke 09
As for the relievers, I looked at all of his starts and found 9 “partial” innings, in which he started the inning, but did not finish it. In those 9 games, he pitched 3 innings and was charged with 10 ERs allowed. I didn’t bother seeing if he had allowed the runs to score BEFORE a reliever came in or not, but even if we were to assume the bullpen allowed ALL ten runs to score, and thus subtract 3 IPs and 10 ER from his season total, it only reduces his ERA to 5.43 (My methodoligy is overfriendly to Luke here, as he should probably be charged with at least a few of those 10 runs).
Moving on to the issue of his strand rate. Get a load of this:
With bases empty: 231/296/388 (OPS of 684)
With men on base: 354/402/596 (OPS of 998)
I don’t know where to find the league standard for this differential ( I assume most pitchers are worse with men on base – but SURELY not this much worse). Also, I was looking up simply on ESPN; they did not have this data in 2008 or 2007 for some reason. For example, Bannister has what appears to be similar results with men on or with the bases empty – yet he has worse ERA than FIP as well. Anyway, this has to rule out the bullpen as a solution, doesn’t it?
As for big innings – I’m going to define them as 4 ER allowed or more; I found 7 times where he allowed a big inning this season. Five of those occurred in the first 3 innings, with only two occuring in the 4th or later. I guess this means that this probably isn’t an issue of stamina or conditioning.
Luke is simply an enigma. I just wish I could trust the “braintrust” in KC to help unlock his talent. FWIW, I’m not holding my breath.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Sep 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good stuff here
I guess this could suggest it is more “in his head” than anything.
Who is the sport psychologist for the Royals ? I know more coaching will help, but perhaps bring in some bigger guns to iron this out.
Clear the mechanism Luke!!!
Sponsor of the Will Ebner Physical Therapy Center for Players Who've Been Hit By Will Ebner and Want to Try to Stop the Ringing. Or WEPTCPWBHBWEWTSR for short.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Sep 24, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the primary reason
Callaspo has either got to be traded or made the DH. Since irrational Yuni-love (is there any other kind?) means we’re stuck with poor defense at SS for at least another season and a half (even Dayton could eventually recognize a mistake, couldn’t he?), getting a great defensive 2B on this team is essential.
If you look closely, it really says "CentralChamps2012."
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 24, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 













