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Yankee Reserves Pound Hochevar

Despite a solid start, Luke Hochevar eventually struggled against a lineup featuring a number of extremely unfamiliar faces Monday night. When the dust settled, Hochevar allowed eight runs to the Yankee B team, adding another down chapter to what had once been a promising season.

Star-divide

The Royals, as currently assembled, just do not seem like a good fit for Luke. The team is awful defensively, especially in the infield, and Hochevar has been at his best when he's getting ground balls. That being said, Hochevar was hit hard tonight, allowing three doubles and two homers, to go with seven make-of-it-what-you-will singles. A mere two strikeouts is further evidence that he was deeply hittable tonight.

So, all in all, a bummer start for Luke. We've said it before, but it continues to hold: Davies, Bannister and Hochevar remain huge question marks, as well as huge potential contributors. I thought Bannister was done last season, then he came back. I thought Davies had arrived, then he left. If two of them could just click for a full season, the Royals might be dangerous. Unfortunately, two thirds of the teams in the game have this same scenario with their own guys. The intriguing/frustrating pitcher who gets 80 starts to show something is not a rare species.

If you are bored on Tuesday, you can catch me, as well as BP's Marc Normandin on the Royals Authority Show at 9 AM and 2 PM. Info here.

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Luke Hochevar will be a quality pitcher

when he becomes a middle reliever.

He will NOT be a quality starting pitcher, especially not in this organization.

Hillman keeping Hochevar in to pitch to Cano was unbelievably stupid. Your pitcher just threw 4 straight balls to load the bases with 0 outs and you are down 2. YOU PULL THE STARTER. YOU PULL HIM. Hillman is awful at managing pitching. Flat out awful.

I put that a lot better right there than I put it on 610.

When batting Yuni 2nd isn’t the worst move of the night.. that says a lot

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 12:44 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Eh, Who cares?

Seriously. You might as well leave him in there and see if he can work it out. Good pitchers work themselves out of jams. It’s the end of September, Luke has shown numerous times this season that he can be devastatingly effective, so if he can handle it. I really don’t think it’s that big a deal.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 29, 2009 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, but we already know

that Hoch is prone to the big inning.

Wait. Sarah Palin's in Hong Kong? But who's watching Russia?

by labbadabba on Sep 29, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But there comes a point

Where he just has to sink or swim. Babying him forever isn’t going to cut it. He needs to show he can work shitty situations out, like good pitchers do, or he goes to the bullpen. Pulling him everytime he gets in a jam isn’t going to let the club make an informed decision. There really is nothing to lose right now in giving him the chance.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 29, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

a jam is

2 on, 0 outs, down 2 in the 7th.

Hoch walked a guy on 4 pitches in that situation.

Not a lot of pitchers can work their way out of bases loaded, 0 outs, without giving up at least one run. Zack Greinke did that because he’s awesome. Luke Hochevar is not on that level.

Luke has shown that he can be very effective, but that doesn’t turn off and on during a game.

If he sucks, then he will suck all day.

Anyways, it’s the Yankees, we want to beat those guys

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and the guy who puts Soria in for 6 outs up 3 shouldn’t talk about confidence

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, it doesn't matter now

in this wasted season. And I can’t argue with testing Hochevar
against some adversity (again).

But Hillman has been consistently
bad at managing pitching. And what is more important for
a manager to do?
 
I’m not saying his staff is above average, but he has been
very effective at magnifying all of their flaws by leaving
starters in there too long, starting bad pitchers when they
are proven suck (Ponson, most obviously), choosing the
wrong reliever (Wright!! Yabuta!!) for nearly every situation,
throwing up Soria on moot 9ths so he’s tired when we need
him, etc, etc, etc. The only smart move he’s made all year
in this category is allowing Soria to get six outs.

Oh – and I forgot about letting Meche throw 294 pitches that
one night. Why!!! And then he’s hurt the next game. Duh!!!

The team is largely overmanaged, and the pitching is poorly
managed. Does Hillman think he’s being creative? He failed.

by kgustaf on Sep 29, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hoch's ability to get ground balls

and the low pitch counts make him very attractive
as a starter. Once in a while he gets lucky and
throws a complete game, or gets very unlucky and
gets destroyed in the third inning. One should agree
with some earlier posts here, that getting 6 good innings
out of a starter is acceptable if you have a couple of
good guys in the bullpen, AND the bullpen is managed
well.

I’ll just keep hoping that Trey learned something, and he
can pray on it very, very thoroughly through the offseason
and find the answers through whatever revelation he
believes in.

by kgustaf on Sep 29, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, especially now with our 45 person bullpen

why have a pitcher pitch in trouble? It is more instructive to see how the kids do in these situations. I want to see Marte in a high pressure situation, not Luke or Wright or (god forbid) Yabuta. Isn’t that what September is for, if your team is out of it?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 29, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

granted, our pen shrunk slightly since

Bale went down for his annual injury, Meche and Bannister and Davies went down, Chen went down

process

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

spotted this on Robinson Tejeda's BBRef page
Something Awful sponsor(s) this page.

The Royals bullpen produces awesomeness (Soria, Tejeda) and comedy (everyone else). Something Awful demonstrates both virtues simultaneously! See you at the Sports Argument Stadium! And best of luck to Tejeda in becoming the next Boots Poffenberger!

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 2:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Trey butchered this

I am not a big Trey hater, BUT tonight made me really mad. You’ve got a starting pitcher who was not efficient all game. He was behind a lot and a lot of his first pitch strikes where up in the zone. The best one all night was the fastball down and away to Posada in the 6th (?) or 7th (?) to make it 0-1. Then he followed that by piping a fastball that Jorge doubled on. His fastball had less movement than the normal Luke, and the curve was not good at all. And put that with Olivo and his predictability, you’ve got a bad recipe for success.

Hindsight is always 20/20, but I would not have let Hoch face a batter that inning and I said that to my wife. He was not consistent in the zone and he was not crisp. He had gotten lucky to that point in my opinion and with the extended rosters, let’s give some of the young guys a shot in a tough situation in NY. I was all for bringing Rosa in there for the 7th.

The most inexcusable thing for Trey though? Not having someone up and throwing at the start of the 7th inning. We didn’t get Rosa up until 4 batters in!! Poor managing tonight.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Sep 29, 2009 7:48 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I have to agree

The Royals are really hurting the confidence of their starters by not using the extended pen. Bannister started going downhill when he was getting stretched beyond 5-6 innings. Last light, Hochevar would have had a quality start, lucky or not, if they would have pulled him after six. He can’t be on fire every night; not even ZG can do that. So, you need to say, we need 5 innings, then take what more you can get.

Sometimes your starting pitchers do not have their best stuff, period. You cannot pull them after 3 absent a shelling ,but after 4.5 to 5, anything goes to keep the game close. Luke is not looking good, but he might look like a legit back of the rotation guy IF he were managed properly and saved from being beaten to death by coaching decisions. They cannot keep doing this. Hoch will be worse off mentally for having allowed this type of stuff to happen.

by bas on Sep 29, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hochever

cannot be counted on as a starter now. It appears that tipping his pitches was not his problem. If I were GM, I would start him in bullpen next season and get me another starter, then work him in as a starter during the season if he shows progress.

by BlueBloodRoyal on Sep 29, 2009 8:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You cannot say this from this game

He had an acceptable start through 6. If a starting pitcher gets destroyed after the 6th inning, that is manager incompetence for not helping a guy that gave you 2/3 of a game of decent pitching.

I know John Bale is out right now, but Trey needs to remember that we still do have a bullpen.

by bas on Sep 29, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can he say it based on his 6.24 ERA?

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Sep 29, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well he hasn't fixed his tipping problem yet

So maybe it takes them a while to catch up to his tipped pitches? He’s going to have to tinker with his physical motions in the offseason to see if he can fix it. You can’t change something like that during the season unless it is very simple.

by AxDxMx on Sep 29, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Was at the game last night

with a friend who’s a non-Royals fan. He’s a Rangers fan so he seems to think that Hillman is a good guy and he was bummed that they didn’t can Washington to pick up Hillman. I told him about Trey’s inability to manage a bullpen which as an American League manager should be the biggest criteria. He didn’t believe my Trey stories. That is, not until the 7th inning.

I told him at the beginning of the game that Hoch was effective enough to usually get through 4 or 5 but then he just has one inning where he’ll give up like 6 runs or something. So sure enough, after he’d pitched a 3 run game with 9 hits through 6, we were both beginning to think that my assessment may have been off.

But then the 7th started, we had traded 1 run innings for the last two and the game was shaping up to be a good one. Hoch’s pitchcount was in the mid 70’s. That’s when he put two on and then walked the 3rd on 4 pitches. My buddy says wow, they should have had the pen up in the 6th when your pitcher was giving up homers to light hitting 3rd string defensive shortstops. After the bases were walked loaded, Olivo slumped up to the mound as slowly as he could. About half was to the mound we looked into the Royals dugout as if to say, ’you’d better do something quick.’ All that look got was a coaching visit. I said, well, Carlos Rosa should be ready to go here if we can delay just a bit longer. In comes Cano, out goes the ball (it was a beautiful shot BTW) 10 seconds later, Carlos Rosa is jogging in all warmed up.

After the predictable Hillman outcome my buddy says, ‘So, it’s been a long season, huh?’

Wait. Sarah Palin's in Hong Kong? But who's watching Russia?

by labbadabba on Sep 29, 2009 10:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

In some ways, one of the more depressing games of the year

Like the Star said, to give this game some perspective: Teams get fined in ST for starting only 3 “regulars” like the Yankees did last night – and yet the Royals still got blown out.

That SHOULD be the most depressing part – but to me the very fact that KC COULDN’T FIELD A LINEUP WITH 6 MINOR LEAGUERS EVEN IF THEY WANTED TO. That speaks volumes on the current state of the organization.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Sep 29, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

but to me the very fact that KC COULDN’T FIELD A LINEUP WITH 6 MINOR LEAGUERS EVEN IF THEY WANTED TO

what about the time that we put TPJ and Hernandez in the lineup for a Greinke start?

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, I was trying to refer to the lack of prospects called up in September

rereading my post, I could have made that a bit more clear.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Sep 29, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but our minor leagues are awesome

they went to the playoffs, and that’s the #1 sign of success

never mind that the offense in Burlington and Wilmington

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember when Bannister had that great ERA in 2007 thanks to the extremely low BABIP?

Well, Hochevar is having the exact opposite of that. BABIP works both ways. Hochevar’s BABIP this year is 330, or about 30 points higher than it should be. His line drive rate (which has the greatest effect on BABIP) has been very good at 18%. He he has pitched in front of one of the worst defenses in baseball. And some of it is just bad luck (his HR/FB rate is unsustainably high and his strand rate (LOB%) is unsustainably low).

This is not to say Hochevar is awesome. He is far from it. But he has pitched like someone who should be giving up somewhere between 4.50 to 5.00 runs per nine innings (or what you would expect from a decent fourth starter).

Hochevar has the skill set to be a perfectly fine fourth starter, maybe a little better if increases his groundball rate. Bannister, again, provides a good illustration. After the shiny ERA in 2007, Bannister posted a lousy one in 2008 when his BABIP came back to earth (and then some). But in 2009, Bannister was solid again. Hochevar is a good bet to have Bannister’s 2009 season, even if he does not pitch much differently than this year.

by Gopherballs on Sep 29, 2009 1:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This points out yet again the absurdity of drafting Luke #1

When we’re talking about him, with a little more luck, as a solid fourth starter.

by awolfson on Sep 29, 2009 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

but Lincecum was never gonna make it as a starter

and i’m fine with the idea of more teams than KC firing decision-making draft people for passing on Lincecum. The groupthink in Baseball is a bit tiresome. Just because a pitcher is shorter than 6’2" doesn’t mean that he’s doomed to obscurity. Ask Pedro (who some wanted to make into a reliever without giving him a shot in the majors)

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 29, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looking at that first round is painful

Lincecum, Longoria, Kershaw, Stubbs, Scherzer, Bard… they all fit the profile (except maybe Kershaw) of guys the Royals like to draft. But no.

The Royals’ disdain for college hitters concerns me very much.

by awolfson on Sep 29, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The draft was frustating

but evaluating Hochevar and evaluating the drafting of Hochevar are two separate issues. Just to clarify, Hochevar’s current skill set suggests that there is no reason why he cannot be a solid fourth starter. There is still the possibility that he improves, which could turn him into something closer to what was expected of him when drafted. But his draft status should not be held against him in evaluating how he should be expected to perform going forward.

One definite problem with Hochevar is that he has trouble against left-handed batters (career v. LHB: 302/368/494, 862 OPS). This is not an uncommon trait among groundballers, as sinking fastballs tend to be hit well by batters of the opposite hand. But unlike the better groundballers, Hochevar does not have a good curve or change to keep lefties honest. In fact, according to Fangraphs’ pitch type values, they are his two worst pitches. His slider is very good, but he cannot really use it against lefties. If he could develop either his curve or change into a near average pitch, his performance could notably improve. Of course, that is much easier said than done.

by Gopherballs on Sep 29, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't have mattered.

The Royals could have drafted Jesus H. Christ a CF with all 5 tools including the ability to be a savior to the organization and they would have effed it up. It’s a curse… The curse of being incredibly shitty at all levels of instruction. It’s amazing they ever turn out any good players.

by AxDxMx on Sep 29, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It wasn't his size that was the main issue

Lincecum was ridden like a cheap hooker at college. Lots and lots of innings. And he has a pretty wacky delivery action. Those two combined scared teams off. No one doubted he could be effective, they doubted if he would be effective in 5 years, because his arm might fall off after 3.

They were wrong. But to portray it as just a size thing is inaccurate in the extreme.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 29, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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