Royals Review Prospect Pulse: September

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2009 3:23 PM EDT in Royals Minor Leagues Comment 45 comments

The minor league season is wrapping up with some of the short season clubs already finished.

The big news with this list is the ascension of Mike Montgomery to the #1 spot. I flip-flopped him and Hosmer but eventually decided if a list that is charting performance through the year is worth anything, it needs to reward Montgomery for his incredible performance. I still like Hosmer quite a bit and think he will be very good once his hand issues/vision issues are taken care of but Montgomery is not a 'default' #1 because Hoz and Moose have struggled--he is legitimately one of the best LH pitching prospects in the game. Montgomery has the fastball with good velocity and good life plus an excellent change-up. And when he has his curve working, as he did earlier this week, we get 6+ IP with 12 Ks and 0 W. I had figured Montgomery would start next year back at Wilmington but he might just punch his ticket to AA.

This will be the last Prospect Pulse of the season and then I'll throw performance for the rest of the year, reports from Instructional League and Arizona Fall League together and then assemble my offseason prospect list.

Pitcher stats are listed: K-9ip/W-9ip/FIP. Batting stats are listed: avg/obp/slg

Rank	Name	Last Month	Age	Level	Aug. Stats	YTD	Comment
1	Mike Montgomery	2	20	High-A	7.6/1.2/2.21	Low-A 7.8/3.6/3.16 High-A 7.6/2.1/2.51	Hasn't had much trouble with High-A
2	Eric Hosmer	1	19	High-A	176/263/294	Low-A 255/352/385 High-A 196/260/272	We are left to wonder how he will do with better vision (and a healthy hand)
3	Mike Moustakas-3B	3	20	High-A	283/350/478	255/302/429	Hot month. A good AFL could restore his top prospect standing.
4	Aaron Crow-RHP	4	22	NA	NA	NA	We continue to wait...
5	Dan Duffy-LHP	5	20	High-A	9.4/3.9/3.31	8.4/2.9/3.21	Continues to be solid/very good.
6	David Lough-CF	10	23	AA	317/372/538	High-A 323/373/477 AA 330/369/531	Having a great year. Having defied expectations, its hard to know what his ceiling is.
7	Tim Melville-RHP	7	19	Low-A	9.8/4.6/5.23	8.7/4.1/4.34	Been very inconsistent
8	Jeff Bianchi-SS	6	22	AA	274/298/377	High-A 307/364/437 AA 312/352/424	Tough month.
9	J. Giavotella-2B	9	22	High-A	248/295/398	254/351/373	I know his numbers are stagnant but I'm standing by this guy
10	Dan Gutierrez-RHP	12	22	High-A	8.5/2.6/2.47	8.2/2.3/2.44	He's only allowed a run in 1 of his outings
11	Will Myers-C	13	18	SS	238/313/524	238/313/534	So far the bat looks for real
12	John Lamb-LHP	14	19	SS	9.9/2.4/3.71	9.0/2.5/4.1	Could zoom up this list next year
13	Kila Kaaihue-1B	8	25	AAA	235/354/407	254/394/447	Has been better mediocre the past two months
14	Jordan Parraz-RF	11	24	AAA	353/395/529	AA358/451/553 AAA 298/358/426	He supposedly hasn't been completely healthy for most of the year--wonder how he'll do when he is?
15	Chris Dwyer-LHP	15	21	SS	12.3/9.8/8.13	12.3/9.8/8.13	It will be interesting to see how they develop this kid-more like a HS or college arm?
16	Tyler Sample-RHP	19	20	SS	6.7/3.0/3.44	8.1/3.6/3.42	Has been putting it together--but isn't especially young for the level.
17	Kelvin Herrera-RHP	16	19	DL	NA	1.7/0.0/3.15	Here's the deal: he's had some arm issues but they think rest will take care of it (similar to what Gutierrez has had)
18	Carlos Rosa-RHP	18	24	AAA	12.1/3.5/2.96	10.1/4.1/3.83	Why isn't he in our bullpen?
19	Disco Hayes-RHP	17	26	AAA	3.9/1.5/3.98	AA 4.0/1.4/3.19 AAA 3.9/1.0/3.68	Struggled a little bit-but I hope he also gets a chance with the big club.
20	Luis Coleman-RHP	NR	23	High-A	1.83/12.1/1.9	Low-A 7.0/1.2/2.36 High-A 12.1/1.9/1.83	Has been lights out and is on the fast track
21	Derrick Robinson-CF	34	22	High-A	310/362/491	245/295/328	Zooms up with a great month.
22	Blaine Hardy-LHP	24	22	Low-A	12.4/1.5/2.31	9.0/1.7/2.47	Has clearly mastered Low-A but there isn't room on a loaded Wilmington roster.
23	Greg Holland-RHP	20	23	AAA	1.0/5.0/7.99	AA 9.5/3.7/3.10 AAA 1.0/5.0/7.99	Tough intro to AAA
24	Yowil Espinal-SS	18	27	SS	267/347/467	239/328/399	Pretty good month to close out his season--should see him with a full season club next year.
25	Salvador Perez-C	26	19	SS	353/383/459	SS 311/361/425 Low-A 189/230/236	Some catching help on the horizon?
26	Carlos Fortuna-RHP	19	25	SS	8.5/3.3/4.01	7.4/4.3/5.01	Needs to take a step forward next year.
27	Keaton Hayenga-RHP	23	21	SS	3.4/2.6/4.80	4.6/2.8/3.90	Where are the strikeouts?
28	Juan Abreu-RHP	20	24	AA	10.5/12.1/6.03	High-A 11.8/5.9/3.45 AA 12.7/10.1/4.95	Iffy control has gone from bad to worse.
29	Hilton Richardson	20	36	Low-A	SS 299/415/403 Low-A 182/250/182	SS 317/395/431 Low-A 182/250/182	Getting a shot at Low-A after Francis was suspended.
30	Barry Bowden-RHP	24	32	High-A	8.5/2.8/2.08	Low-A10.9/3.8/2.79 High-A 8.5/2.8/2.08	08 Non-drafted FA continues to produce.
31	Paulo Orlando-CF	23	23	High-A	293/321/320	266/307/358	Consistent mediocrity
32	Chris Lubanski-OF	24	28	AAA	057/154/086	275/357/456	He is a minor league FA at the end of the year-he's probably gone.
33	Sean McCauley	22	29	DL	NA	226/289/305	Been hurt
34	Jose Bonilla-C	21	31	Low-A	190/286/253	222/285/321	Wishes he was hurt
35	Jason Taylor-3B	21	33	Low-A	253/367/373	260/347/384	Power hasn't been there this year.
36	Dusty Odenback-RHP	21	40	Low-A	9.6/2.6/2.24	SS 6.3/2.7/2.94 Low-A 9.6/3.7/2.61	The Royals drafted a bullpen this past year
37	Brandon Sisk-LHP	24	37	High-A	9.7/2.8/2.27	11.4/2.5/2.22	Great numbers with iffy stuff
38	Alex Llanos-CF	18	38	SS	204/220/265	267/306/380	How big is the jump between AZ and Idaho Falls? Pretty big apparently.
39	Leondy Perez-RHP	19	39	SS	8.7/4.3/3.88	8.6/2.9/3.93	Good numbers at a low-level.
40	Malcolm Culver-3B	19	35	SS	215/337/266	226/328/339	Hopefully, one of our young but mediocre bats will step up next year.
41	Ben Theriot-C	21	42	SS	229/357/257	290/389/355	Not exactly sure why his ABs have been limited.
42	Deivy Batista-SS	21	43	SS	225/337/412	280/326/527	Curious to see where he plays next year.
43	Cole White-RHP	21	NR	Low-A	5.9/4.7/4.64	SS 9.6/5.4/4.04 Low-A 5.9/4.7/4.64	Lots of potential for this bullpen arm.
44	Jerico Blanco-OF	17	45	DSL	250/357/417	244/339/378	I can't wait to see what he is going to do stateside.
45	Mike Lehman-RHP	20	41	Low--A	5.6/7.5/6.40	4.6/5.0/5.44	Free-fallin'...
46	Ryan Wood-SS	22	NR	Low-A	247/352/403	SS 174/304/221 Low-A 247/352/403	09 draftee-he's an under the radar but worth watching.
47	Blake Wood-RHP	24	50	AA	5.4/8.1/4.92	5.7/3.1/4.35	He's baack--could be bullpen help next year.
48	Geuline Beltre-CF	18	NR	SS	233/247/400	212/256/354	Talented but needs to put it together.
49	Pedro Nivar-SS	17	NR	DSL	222/364/333	226/371/286	Gave him a big bonus last year and gets on base but no power yet.
50	Patrick Keating-RHP	22	NR	SS	14.8/1.9/1.40	12.9/2.8/2.51	More 09 draftees for the bullpen.

Player of the month: Derrick Robinson. I didn't expect that. After struggling all year and having an abysmal July, Robinson went nuts in August with 5 homers (compared to 0 the past year and a half). What does it mean? I have no idea. It could mean nothing or perhaps he figured some things out. He will go to Northwest Arkansas in 2010 where a lot of hitters improved their numbers. Robinson is supposed to have amazing defense in CF and if he couples that with a 700 OPS at the big league level--he could have value. We will have to wait until 2010 for the next indications of whether he can do that.

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Hoz & Moose, but mostly Hoz

I’ve been wondering what it means for a minor leaguer to have a fail season – even one fail season. So I’ve started looking through current MLB rosters to see how common it is for productive big league players to have had seasons as bad as Moose and Hoz have had this year. The results aren’t happy so far.

Of course there are lots of good players who had one or two bad minor league seasons, but far fewer than I was expecting. I haven’t looked at close to half the rosters yet, but so far it looks like most productive MLBers have unblemished minor league pedigrees.

I’ll keep at this unless you already have a study to point me toward, but I’d like to understand just how badly this season damages the odds of Moose and Hoz making it as productive big leaguers.

On another front, I’d like to know why you believe in Hoz’s potential. I seem to be in the minority here, but I just don’t like that looping swing and all the holes it has. I have never seen why scouts went so gaga for his power, cause he looks like a poor man’s Jake to me. Not trying to start an argument, I just want to understand why scouts like him so much.

Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?

by royalsroyalsroyals on Sep 3, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

justin upton had a very similar season to hosmer's season in A ball at the same age

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hoz

You could be right—his performance this year does not shout “future All-Star”. But he showed the ability to get on base (at least at Burlington) and I think his finger issues took away his power. (he also changed the mechanics of his swing at some point and the Royals worked with him to change that back).

I’ll be interested to see your results of players who had a bad year. I don’t know of one out there. The other way to look at this is to survey top 5 picks and working forward (who had a ‘down’ season’ and still became good players) as opposed to looking at good players and working backwards. I would contend that Hoz had a disappointing year—but not a bad/disastrous season. His OPS + for the Midwest League is north of 100 (league OPS is 702 and he was 734). Being a 1st baseman, of course, he needs to be a great hitter to justify the $ and draft position. His number in Wilmington were not good but that was a rather pointless promotion by the team.

Finally, ‘poor man’s Jake’? I’m not sure I would call my worst enemy that. I would wager a $1 that Hoz will have a higher lifetime OPS+ and higher WAR than Jake.

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take that bet.

I hope you are right and we are settling the bet in 20 years or so.

I didn’t like the pick then and I don’t like it now. Not with Smoake being nearly Royal proof (although Gordon may be the argument against that). I didn’t like his swing then either and I don’t trust the Royals minor leagues to be able to build stars.

Also..I STILL don’t like Robinson. For fun..compare his minor league numbers to Jumpin’ Joey Gathright. Until he can eclipse Joey’s numbers in the minor leagues he is a non-prospect. I realize that’s not fair since Gathright was older, but they are similar players. In 3 years of full season pro ball Robinson has yet to hit the .650 OPS mark. That SUCKS! He’s fast..so what.

by Stook on Sep 3, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a couple of things:

I wanted Smoak too. Odd that this year is when they decide they really like college players.

I’m not sure I buy the “Royals can’t develop hitters” argument—I would more readily agree that they aren’t good at drafting/signing them.

I share your skepticism about Robinson but he had a heck of a month. I’m not penciling him into the KC lineup but I am curious to see what happens next year.

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i dont get why everyone is so excited about fucking justin smoak....

he’s 3 years older than hosmer and OPSing a whopping 723 in a hitters league. Sure, he’s a lock to be a major league player, but i dont see much else there. Even his AA numbers were just good not great. I can understand being disappointed in hosmer thus far, but to bitch about not having Smoak? This isnt exactly Lincecum or Longoria here.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's coming from the perception that Hosmer is a bust

Anyone would be better than Hos if he is a bust, and I have to admit, I wanted Smoak too at the time. Right now, it’s easy to say that though. We’ll see who’s better in 5 years, as Hosmer is much younger as you point out.

Also, Robinson’s power spike may be a complete aberration, but I really don’t think it is. Somebody that shows absolutely no power, not even an occasional homer, suddenly goes power crazy? That looks like a new skill to me. I’m not going to crown his ass yet, but maybe he isn’t what we thought he was. Very interested to see next year from him (or more hopefully winter ball).

by AxDxMx on Sep 3, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kinda like Willie B.'s new power stroke this season!

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by devil_fingers on Sep 3, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey...bert looks like he's developed a little bit of an XBH stroke....

after being strictly a singles hitter in the past…so its possible

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Willie never got enough playing to show it off in the past

Now he swings for the fences. :)

There’s something different about developing power. I know it’s small sample size, but when your overall sample has 3 homers in around 1700 PAs, and then you go off for 5 in probably 100 or less PAs, that’s nuts. His expected homers for the month was something like .1, and he gets 5. The further something gets outside the standard deviation, the more interesting it becomes. It’s either a complete fluke outlier, or something has changed. I’m hoping something has changed.

by AxDxMx on Sep 3, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i can only hold out hope for a little bit longer that Drob turns into Kenny Lofton

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

I don’t think Hosmer’s a bust…YET. I didn’t like the pick because we need close to MLB ready talent now not 5-6 years from now. Smoak is not doing great in AAA but had a .930 OPS in AA. My guess is he is up by July next year after spending another 6 months in AAA. Hosmer’s at best 3 years away. In 5 years when Hos is hitting 40 hrs a year and Smoak is hitting 25 you can bring this up and we can all laugh.

by Stook on Sep 3, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well...i suggest you wait until smoak does something....

a 930 OPS in AA isnt anything to write home about either….and an ops in the 700s as a 23 year old is definitely not…so lets not crown smoaks ass yet….and lets not give up on hosmer, but to bitch about that pick with smoak as your reasoning is just plain retarded.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"so lets not crown smoaks ass yet"

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Sep 4, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is he who we thought he was?

by AxDxMx on Sep 4, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's hard to say

but maybe you should consider guys who spent time in a league similar to Hoz… very pitcher friendly leagues. It’s not an excuse but of course his numbers will be down compared to guys in very hitter friendly leagues.

As for Moose, he’s having a “down” year but still has decent counting stats… I’m actually very excited to see what he does at Double-A NW Arkansas.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Sep 3, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm also willing go give Hosmer a break if his eyesight was really that bad

hopefully the Lasik surgery works and he has Ted Williams eyes not.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 3, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

D-robs August really excites me.

hope he can continue to improve and we have a legit leadoff hitter and centerfielder

by rockchalks7 on Sep 3, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope he can continue to improve

so that he might become a decent 4th outfielder

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by devil_fingers on Sep 3, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also ben Tschepikow or however you spell it

was promoted all the way to AAA even after struggling. GMDM think that highly of him or just a filler for now? He did have a hit last night

by rockchalks7 on Sep 3, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Omaha

Omaha need some middle infielders with Falu and Hulett off playing World Cup—per A Royal Pain over at RoyalsCorner

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The age and last months rating columns got flipped-flopped half way down

by RoyallyJeff on Sep 3, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know

I was wondering why we had 45 year olds playing in the short season…

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 3, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that happened around #20-24

where the ages and the ranks overlap—tough to keep those straight.

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course, one never knows what the Process is

it might involved middle aged players.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 3, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Players over 35 could be the new market inefficiency cornered by the Royals

Bill James and Poz would be proud, or something like that.

by swing and a miss on Sep 3, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some fun with DT's

the Davenport Translations are Baseball Prospectus’ version of MLEs. Here are some “”http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/pageCRLpeak.php" target="new">peak translations" for the players that are what they sound like — projections of what these players would hit in the majors (in a “neutral” environment) at their peak according to their stats. Remember, these aren’t “projections,” but “translations” adjusted for age, etc. So take t hem with many grains of salt. It’s just for fun, here.

I’ll give the translated “three-slash,” then the EqA — a total value stat that is on a batting average scale. It’s not as good as wOBA, but there aren’t peak translations for wOBA available anywhere, either. .260 is always league average. For perspective, in “real-time” major league EqA this season, Billy Butler has a .272 EqA, Yuniesky Betancourt has a .200.

Moustakas: .266/.323/.468 .268 EqA
Lough (WIL): .287/.328/.448 .265 EqA
Lough (NWA): .294/.328/.516 .281 EqA
Bianchi (WIL): .277/.337/.415 .264 EqA
Bianchi (NWA): .274/.319/.417 .255 EqA
Giavotella: .256/.347/.390 .262 EqA
D-Rob: .245/.299/.345 .234 EqA
Paulo Orlando: .246/.281/.344 .221 EqA
Hos (WIL): .215/.298/.323 .219 EqA
Hos (BUR): .256/.371/.439 .282 EqA
Kila: .243/.374/.421 .281 EqA
TUG: .256/.344/.423 .268 EqA
Lubanski: .226/.307/.338 .235 EqA

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 3, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What would it be like to have a team full of league average hitters?

I bet it would be refreshing.

by BrRoyal on Sep 3, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a miracle

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 3, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

different

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 3, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again...

Thanks for doing this nwroyal – I think I look forward to the prospect pulse more than anything else now in the Royals blogosphere.

by XBic on Sep 3, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i still have a weird interest in Alex Llanos

don’t know why

by royalsreview on Sep 3, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the name

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Sep 3, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great list as always nwroyal

I realize Rowdy Hardy does not project at the MLB level, but is he really not top 50 material at this point? He does have very solid numbers in a hitter friendly environment in NW Arkansas. He’s almost 27 but you have to figure he’ll get a shot at the big club at some point in the next year or so at least in middle relief.

by jsolo on Sep 3, 2009 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Royals have some OLD prospects lower down on the list..

But really, thanks for the updates I always look forward to it.

This post was part of The Process

by ksuroyals on Sep 3, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A few things

Keating has got to be higher! And I think Mous is still above Hosmer especially after their season comparison’s at Burlington.

I think Disco is a little high and Coleman a little low.

But good list, not to much arguing. I’m still trying to decide what I think on Dwyer.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Sep 4, 2009 2:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

too bad about the D-Gut trade

totally have to redo the top of this to accomodate Smith and Pina

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Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 4, 2009 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

:)

Just pencil them in at 5 and 6. lol. (I have no idea.)

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Sep 4, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish I had to redo the top of the list

More like I have to redo the middle of the list to accommodate those guys

by nwroyal on Sep 4, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

22 for Smith behind DRob?

34 for Pina replacing Jose Bonilla?

by AxDxMx on Sep 4, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love forgetting to hit reply at the bottom of a thread....

by AxDxMx on Sep 4, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smith would go about #18 on this list for me

Pina…right around where Bonilla is.

baseball rules.

by doublestix on Sep 5, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve nothing to add here nw, other than a thank you for putting these reports together throughout the season. I always read them and learn more than a little bit about what is going on deep in the organization. I’m impressed in particular with your digging all the way down to the DSL. So, let this note serve as a long distance pat on the back.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 5, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Clint Robinson

How is this guy not getting noticed? (not just referring to this blog… nobody seems to know who he is) .800+ OPS… .300(ish) BA (good enough to be only one point behind the league leader). Able to hit for power (likely good for 25 +/- homers in the big leagues). He finds gaps for extra bases and seems to get done what Moustakas can’t.

by Jason K on Sep 5, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs