Luke Hochevar Blasted As the Royals Lose Yet Again

by royalsreview on Sep 6, 2009 5:49 PM EDT in News Comment 30 comments

Remember when we all thought that Luke Hochevar and Kyle Davies would be key members of the Royal rotation? We should have remembered the rule: out of Hochevar, Davies, and Bannister, only one can be good at any given time.

What he hell happened to the Luke Hochevar who looked unstoppable for three starts in August? Hochevar now has a 2009 ERA of 6.10. I know ERA has a number of problems, especially when you pitch in front of a terrible defense, but the list of starting pitchers who post an ERA over 6.00 for a season, then turned out to be useful later on, has to be fairly small.

I guess it is time for Dayton to switch his story again: remember everyone, he didn't draft Hochevar. Nope. Had nothing to do with it.

51-85.

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luke has such good stuff, but... yeah

maybe it’s time to move him to the bullpen, see if he can get his fastball up to 95-96, and be useful

by slayor on Sep 6, 2009 5:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Move Davies to the pen first

Unlike Davies, Hochevar has an ability to induce grounders that gives him more margin for error. His K rates and walk rates are fine, but he has been very unlucky on fly balls leaving the yard (HR/FB rate around 14%, which should regress to 10-11%). With a little fine tuning and a better luck, there is no reason Hochevar cannot be a useful 4.75 ERA/FIP back of the rotation starter.

At age 24 (one year younger than Hochevar), Derek Lowe posted very similar numbers, incluing an ERA over 6.00, solid K and BB rates, and a lousy HR rate. Hochevar does not have the same magical sinker as Lowe, but it is not unusual for groundballers to have wider swings in performance as they rely on their defense so much.

by Gopherballs on Sep 6, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

remember how Lincecum wasn't going to make it as a starter and he would be hurt?

yeeeeah, about that..

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 6, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it is easy to know what has happened to Hochevar. Same thing

as the rest of them. Too many pitches, zero appropriate conditioning, ridiculous
usage by the manager to 72 pitches in 3 innings today, obviously no help from the pitching coach. this is what happens to all but the most exceptional players.
disfunctional situation. they keep trying, they know something is missing regards the way they are being handled, but most of them don’t know what. you ask yourself, how would you like to be on a pitching staff where the GM directs the manager to “stretch you out”? or throw 72 pitches with 6 runs in 3 innings or completely disregard any rational analysis of your prior pitch count where you have to pace yourself instead of firing away just to make it through the game, much less keep from blowing out your arm? it will be interesting how this plays out? can things really keep on like this?

by Coach Feb on Sep 6, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Its great that GMDM has gotten glass to put more money into drafts but people keep acting like their all going to pan out. The player development/usage seems to suck

My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!

by AvilesRotY on Sep 6, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there can be only ONE

pitcher to actually not suck at any given time. banny its your turn for the week

My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!

by AvilesRotY on Sep 6, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wrong, they all suck but Greinke and spot-start Tejeda

by AxDxMx on Sep 7, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gamescores

Hoch starts with a GS over 70: 3 (79, 71)
GS from 60 to 69: 2 (66, 60)
GS from 50 to 59: 3 (50, 58, 59)
GS from 40 to 49: 4 (42, 42, 43, 47)
GS from 30 to 39: 3 (39, 38, 31)
GS under 30: 5 (25, 19, 18, 15, 9)

You start with 50 points on GameScores, and in 12 of 20 starts, Hoch’s GS is below 50

Zack Greinke’s split was 24 of 28 starts above 50, 5 starts better or tied with Hoch’s best start, 11 starts at 70 or better.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Sep 6, 2009 6:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I read today where Leyland has held Porcello's pitch count under a hundred all but once this season. Seems like Dayton's going the other way , once again.........

by Steve Hovley on Sep 6, 2009 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's only because Porcello is 20

Verlander leads the majors in pitcher abuse points and Jackson (who threw 126 pitches today) is not far behind at #4 (and sure to advance up the list after today’s stats are added). Gil and Zack are “only” 8th and 10th on that list.

by swing and a miss on Sep 6, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so we’ll send gordon down but keep hoch up? I know its too late now and he did show promise a month ago, but didn’t we see this coming?

by WhenWillDavidGlassDie? on Sep 6, 2009 11:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

Is service clock is already rigged

So what’s the point? That’s the only reason he went down in April, and the only reason Gordon is down there now.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 7, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's an absolute lie

aka “bunk”

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 7, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

didn't see the game

and obviously hochevar didn’t exactly rock… but I’m also guessing that Hochevar and this infield defense are not a great match

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 6, 2009 11:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for your consideration

Player A: 235 PA, -1.3 WAR

Player B: 171 PA, -1.2 WAR

….

…..

Player A: Tony Pena, Jr. 2008

Player B: Yuniesky Betancourt, 2009 (Royals stats only)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 6, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You know the scariest part of this...

Yuni runs into a few balls at the plate and Dayton/Trey buy into it.

I used to work with an old man that told me. Son, every workplace has a dumbass, if you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

by Warden11 on Sep 7, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep....

I’ve found myself thinking that same thing. When he hits a homer, a double, whatever, once or twice a week. Maybe he isn’t as bad as we think. Oh wait, he is………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Time to drink more beer and forget the pain. Then I look at my daughter’s picture and remember why I’m actually happy right now.

And then while I’m looking at those pics, I remember what I made for 4th of July and I get hungry:

Italian sausage with cheese, red peppers, portabella mushrooms, my special rub, bacon wrapped, smoke it for 4 hours…. It was glorious! Yes, I’m drunk right now, and feeling very hungry after that pic.

Screw the Royals, I’ve got more important things to do.

by AxDxMx on Sep 7, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Nice pics. Your daughter looks like an angel. And the wrapped sausage, I’d kill a man for a plate of that on the right day.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 7, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d kill a man for a plate of that on the right day.

Of course, the man killed would be you!

(So would I!)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 7, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pena pitched 3 scoreless in Omaha last night too

Don’t think Yuni could do that.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 7, 2009 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

crap

It’s reincarnation. Nefi Perez is Angle Berroa is Tony Pena Jr. is Yuniesky Betancourt.

It’s a curse.

Serously, I would be glad to see Kila play shortstop the rest of the season. Seriously. That might break the curse. Hell, I’d be glad to see the Royals trade for Huber and play him at shortstop the rest of the season.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 7, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, Huber is actually 6 months younger

than Yuni’s totally reliable Cuban birth certificate

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Sep 7, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not quite 6...

I know ERA has a number of problems, especially when you pitch in front of a terrible defense, but the list of starting pitchers who post an ERA over 6.00 for a season, then turned out to be useful later on, has to be fairly small.

Greinke’s ERA was 5.80 in ’05, his 2nd year, and he turned out to be slightly useful.

In fact, in a lot of ways Hochevar has been better this year, than ZG was that year.

Zack ‘05 – WHIP 1.563 – K/BB 2.15 – K/9I 5.6 – LD Pct 23.4
Luke’09 – WHIP 1.452 – K/BB 2.53 – K/9I 6.7 – LD Pct 18.4

I know that it isn’t really an accurate comparison, due mostly to age, but…

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Sep 7, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

There is another factor at play

2005 was the season just before Zack’s breakdown. His poor performance was probably more due to his mental state than it was due to anything physical going on.

Zack was a great pitcher with a messed-up mind. Luke might just be a fairly good pitcher who has no clue how to navagate a season in the major leagues.

I blame a fair amount of Luke’s problems on the Royals (perhaps mostly Hillman) falling down on the job. I credit a fair amount of Zack’s recovery on the Royals rising to the occassion in 2006 and handling him in a supportive manner.

If I am reight than how this comparisson plays out next year will say more about the Royals organization than it will about either of those two pitchers.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Sep 7, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point JQ

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Sep 7, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good find...

this should be a full post by someone…

by royalsreview on Sep 7, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unbeknownst to GMDM

Age is almost certainly the biggest factor in evaluating whether a player is going to get better. Most good pitchers with ML experience break out by age 25 or earlier. There are a few exceptions though, Cliff Lee’s age 25-26 season (third partial season, 1st full year in the majors): ERA: 5.43, WHIP: 1.53 HR/9: 1.51, K/BB: 1.99.

by swing and a miss on Sep 7, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

soooo....this means that people should support the drafting of HS players?

that’s where i’ve always been on the debate..the royals dont win by hitting on ‘good’ college players..the royals win based on hitting on superstars

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Sep 8, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But you are much better able to project a superstar

With a couple of years of high level college ball behind him…

I don’t know. I prefer college players, there seems less guesswork to me. But I can fully see the reasoning behind going the other way.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 8, 2009 5:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The thing about drafting HS players is that it takes a while to reach MLB

while a college player probably won’t take as long. I think the draft should be done according to Best Player Available, be that a HS or college kid. I just think a team like the Royals should be looking a little more at the colllege kids that are already semi-developed to help start the upward trend out of the cellar. I’m not against drafting HS players though, as they often have more upside because they are more raw. The problem with the Royals however, is that they seem to not be able to mold that talent.

by AxDxMx on Sep 8, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs