FanPost

Dayton Moore's Worst Mistake

Saying that Dayton Moore has made some mistakes is sorta like saying that Paris Hilton is a little promiscuous.

short answer: yes, long answer: yyyyyyeeeeesssssss

Less Mistake Prone than Dayton Moore?

 

You get the feeling that the whole story is never quite explained and that whoever is telling you this is trying to downplay the incredibly horrendous truth.

But, and this is not a happy but, not the type of but that should inspire hope or optimism, for the most part Dayton's mistakes have been relatively small. While there have been many of them, way to many to count, most have been minor involving small contracts, few years, or stopgap solutions. The biggest damage has been done, not to the performance of the team on the field, but to a theoretical future, to the development of players and the acquisition of pieces that could, in time, blossom.

 

Of course however there are always exceptions. Glaring, incriminating exceptions. In this case there is a large one, practically covered in neon and flashing lights. If you havn't figured it out yet, well you'll find out after the bump.

"If the worse thing I do as GM is to bring in a guy who hits 20 HR's and knocks in 97 RBI's, then I think I'm in pretty good shape."

Moore_235x275_medium

via mlb.mlb.com

Now thats a fun quote, I paraphrased a little I admit, but the gist is there.

For me, at least, this was the first turning point of my eventual gargantuan dislike of Dayton Moore. Theres so very much tied up into this one little sentence. The utter disregard for new statistics, the arrogance that he could be wrong, the focus on one tool, in this case power, to the exclusion of all else, the disregard for even the most basic ideas of aging or regression, the horrible contracts handed out to aging veterans. Really I consider this in many ways to be Moore's opening salvo in his vendetta against Omar Minaya.

We all know now that Jose is bad, hell he said it himself last season. He sucks. His defense is historically bad, his offense is subpar, he forgot the meaning of running years ago, and now has injury problems. In no uncertain terms Jose has been monumentally worthless.

But really, how bad has Jose been? Surely his numbers, though bad, havn't been franchise destroying. I mean he did manage a 95 OPS+ his first year as a Royal, and he only played in 81 games last season. Surely these things keep him from being the harbinger of the Royals apocalypse right? Unfortuneatly...no.

Through two years Jose has been putrid. But suckiness is much better to describe in terms of numbers, so lets go to WAR and some simple value calculations to find out just how much damage the Guillen Iceberg has done to the Royals ocean liner.

In 2008, when Jose was signed, the relative value of a win was about $4.5 million. While that number has fluctuated (rather dramatically downward), Jose was signed with the intent of that value being the measure of his contract, so thats the number we are going to use.

Year

wOBA

Hitting RAR

Fielding RAR

Replacement

Positional

WAR

2008

0.318

-6.6

-4.2

21.1

-9.7

.1

2009

.304

-6.9

-18.7

10.4

-4.4

-2.0

2010(Chone)

.312

-6.5

-4.0

15.2

-5.2

0

2010(+)

.320

-9.1

0

20

-20

-.8

2010(-)

.300

-21.3

0

20

-20

-1.8

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Ouch, thats kind of a sucker punch to the gut isn't it? The first thing you might notice is that outside the "replacement" category every single number is negative. His history with the Royals isn't great...and next year isn't looking too promising. The Chone projection only gives Jose 422 AB's which explains while he doesn't look too bad in the final WAR calculation. It also seems to think he can still play a passible right field, which is why he isn't incredibly awful. The next two projections are slightly positive(+) and negative(-) ones. They give Jose a more robust 600 AB's as a DH, which removes the very damaging fielding stats, but hurts him a bit in his positional adjustment.

So Jose plays poorly. How much is this poor play actually impacting the team?

Well we know that his contract is for $36 million, so lets start there. Then lets subtract the league minimum to account for a replacement player, $400,000 a year, giving us $34.8 million. Now lets add in how much value hes added on the field. In his first year he provided a whoping $450,000 in value bringing our cost to $34.3 million. The next year he provided a delicious bad -$9 million in value, adjusting our total to $43.3 million. Now we get to our projections. Chone has him providing no value at all, leaving us with $43.3 million as the final price tag. My positive projection has him providing -$3.6 million in value to the team, leaving a check of $46.9 million. Last but not least my negative projection puts him at -$8.1 Million, running out on a bill of $51.4 million.

So to summise:

Chone: -$43.3 million for 3 years

Positive: -$46.9 million for 3 years

Negative: $51.4 million for 3 years

Keep in mind this is assuming three things: First that Jose will play next season. Second that he will be a DH. Third is that hes relatively healthy. If he's released, plays in the OF(heaven forbid, he'd push nearly -4 WAR in a full season in right) or gets injured this could change.

BUT to put this mistake in perspective, I'd like to leave you with one final thought. The entire team payroll of the Royals in 2008, just 2 years ago, the year Jose was signed, was only $58 million. Jose Guillen will likely cost the Royals nearly 1/3 of their value for the time he was under contract. Single handedly wiping out a years worth of salary paid by the Royals.

I cannot think of any other contract in baseball (including Vernon Wells') that was/is more damaging to a team than Jose Guillen's.

Dear Mr. Moore:

The worst thing you have ever done is to sign a guy who hit 20HRs and 97 RBIs.

The sad thing is? Its not even close.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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