An injury last year? He was very effective at first IIRC.

on Pitch F/X Cruz threw way more changeups last year and less FBs than before

could be nothing, could be something

Possibly not to his ’08 level, but I have no doubt he will be a productive reliever out of our ’pen this year.

We didn’t see a great loss of “Stuff” *, as is evident by Pitch FX, which shows his average FB velocity was down .6 MPH on avg. from ’08…This was coupled with an average increase in his changeup of .8 MPH on average over the same time span…

When that data is coupled with the data provided in the post above by RR, I think you have a large piece of the puzzle…That is a One and a half MPH difference in his changup & his FB over those 2 years. ’08 – 11.6 MPH difference compared to ’09 – 10.2 difference. THat looks like small number, but it is a LARGE difference.

but if you look at his Plate Discipline numbers, one thing that stands out to me (and sorry if it’s already been mentioned) is that in 2009, no one was swinging at his pitches outside of the zone. With the Diamondbacks, his “O-Swing” percentage (pertentage of his pitches outside of the zone that he got opposing hitters to swing at) was about 25% in 2007, and 30% in 2008. Those were his two best recent seasons, FIP-wise and tRA-wise. In 2009, all those numbers were worse —tRA, FIP, and, of course, his O-Swing percentage was under 20%.

Hitters were also making better contact off of Cruz in general in 2009, all the way up to 78%, as opposed to 70% in 2007 and 66% in 2008.

I’m not Pitch f/x guru or scout, so I won’t lean too hard on it. We know that the AL is superior to the NL. The average hitter in the AL is less likely to be fooled by junk pitches. PItchers “stuff” rarely gets better with age, although the decline isn’t as steep for relievers.

Strictly from a statistical point of view, as has been discussed, Cruz is likely to “improve” next season simply because, as a reliever, we only got a small sample size of his talent. Then again, we always had those. It’s unlikely he’ll ever be as good again as he was for Arizona in 2007-2008, particuarly in the AL. CHONE sees him as about a 4.4 FIP reliever; Marcel is less forgiving — 4.57. Marcel sees him as basically replacement level, but, of coure, it’s a “baseline” system. CHONE likes him better, and like Kyle Farnsworth, while he’s not as useless as he may have seemed last season, Cruz (like Farnsworth) aren’t really guys you want to have as your “high leverage” guys — they’re middlemen. They’re worth running out there, and won’t kill you, but for a team in KC’s situation, both should be traded to the first genius GM who is willing to take on more than a pittance of their salary, and little should be demanded in return. The Royals have better (and cheaper) options already in Tejeda (if he’s in relief) and Rosa, and Davies (if he’s moved to the pen), Merkin Valdez, and Matt Herges are at least as good as either (and probably better), too.

is how much of his 2009 decline was age-related/AL-related (can’t fix), and how much was injury-related (can fix). if a shoulder strain was holding him back, then maybe he can bounce back, but if his arm is growing old, not so much.

…answer to your question? Do you think he’ll bounce back to his 09, 07, or 06 numbers? Of course it’d be safe to say 06 because that represents something hear his average.

What of coaching? The real question seems to be whether McClure can harness his talent in way that approximates his Diamondback years. Perhaps the shoulder explains everything, but just turning 30 doesn’t magically explain such a steep drop off. – TL