Top Five Reasons to Love the Rick Ankiel Signing
- Ankiel combines the outfield defense of Scott Podsednik with the plate approach of Mike Jacobs.
- He's the best free agent pitcher Dayton Moore has signed in two years.
- Kansas City now holds the record for most free agent outfielders acquired in one offseason without improving on Mitch Maier,.
- A 30-something right fielder who has been connected with HGH and is a bit of a headcase? What could possibly go wrong?
- Since Rany Jazayerli really wanted the Royals to sign Ankiel, this obviously paves the way for a tearful, on-air reconciliation with Dayton on the first "Rany on the Radio" of the 2010 season.
about 2 years ago
Matt Klaassen
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Cf.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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Is this signing truly worthy of ridicule?
It was not a particularly good signing. Nor was it a particularly bad signing. There were other OFers that Moore could and should have acquired on the cheap instead of Ankiel (and Pods and Anderson). But this was not a stupid choice, right? He projects to be an approximately 1 WAR player and is guaranteed $3.25M (I believe). That means he actually projects to earn his money.
So it doesn’t seem like this was a poor acquisition. Is the ridicule just piling on because we all recognize that Moore sucks? Or am I missing something about Ankiel?
The immoderate moderator
1) Jokes need no reason, especially when
2) whatever his “earning power,” Ankiel certainly fits many of the Moore-acquisition stereotypes (terrible plate approach, not able to field the position he’ll likely want to play, Boras client, in his 30s)
3) will likely to totally awesome, under contract and/or affordable when the Royals are ready to make their run in 2017
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 23, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
So the ridicule has almost nothing to do with Ankiel then?
That’s appropriate.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
they do a bit
he really does approximate Pods defense + Jacobs offense
he really he a 30-something OF connected with HGH who is a bit of a headcase
Rany really did want him to get signed
He really isn’t projected to be better than Mitch Maier
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 23, 2010 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
he really does approximate Pods defense + Jacobs offense
He’s a 1 WAR player. Does it really matter how much of that 1 WAR comes from drawing walks or defense? He’s a 1 WAR player who will be getting paid less than what 1 WAR is worth.
he really he a 30-something OF connected with HGH who is a bit of a headcase
Objection: relevance. I don’t mind that a one-year signing is 30 years old. Should I? Should I care that he’s been connected with HGH? Should I fear a loss of innocence? And should I care that he’s a bit of a headcase? I really don’t know how these are relevant.
Rany really did want him to get signed
Ok
He really isn’t projected to be better than Mitch Maier
Fair point. But 1) I don’t think we can be particularly confident in projections which include that little MLB data (although the information is useful), and 2) I don’t think Ankiel blocks Maier. Pods and Anderson do that much more, which was one of many valid reasons to dislike those signings.
So again, I don’t think this move is worthy of ridicule. Dave Cameron at Fangraphs liked it (but doesn’t like Moore). Josh Fisher at HBT recognized that Ankiel is a decent value for the money.
Dayton Moore is worthy of ridicule. This signing is not. There are many good things to ridicule Moore about.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Again, these are all Dayton Moore-appropriate jokes here
moreover, it’s pretty clear that all these shitty outfielders (and, yes, a 1 WAR player is not a good one) are brought in precisely because the organization doesn’t believe in Maier. I would actually be okay if the organization figured out that the best alignment in the OF is DDJ/LF Maier CF/Ankiel RF. If that happens intentionally (and not because their hand is forced by injury as with Callaspo last sesaon), I’ll be shocked.
The fact that we’re talking about Dayton Moore’s struggle to replace Mitch Freaking Maier shows how ridiculous the situation has become.
While it’s an average signing, i guess I sort of disagree with Dave and others — the only point of signing Ankiel is if he magically returns to the apparently lucky years of 2007-2008 and can be traded at the deadline — and not much will be coming back. And if that’s not the point, then, just like with Pods, there are clearly equal or superior players to Ankiel who have and will signed for less. I won’t run through the usual suspects now, you know who they are.
Ankiel would make more sense of the Mets than for the Royals.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 23, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
because despite Omar, the Mets still have a shot at the playoffs this season
so paying market value for a 1 WAR player to replace a replacement level scrub like Guillen or whomever makes sense for them.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 23, 2010 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
While it’s an average signing, i guess I sort of disagree with Dave and others — the only point of signing Ankiel is if he magically returns to the apparently lucky years of 2007-2008 and can be traded at the deadline — and not much will be coming back. And if that’s not the point, then, just like with Pods, there are clearly equal or superior players to Ankiel who have and will signed for less. I won’t run through the usual suspects now, you know who they are.
He could and should have gotten better for the same or less money. That is a valid criticism. But it is equally valid to point out that the Royals got decent value for the money in Ankiel. That all adds up to a decent signing by a poor GM who has put together a poor roster overall with no minor league depth in position players.
Ankiel would make more sense of the Mets than for the Royals
Perhaps. But I don’t see a one-year signing for this kind of money as being something keeps the Royals from contending in the future. They didn’t lock up money in future, possibly contending seasons in Ankiel. He’s a decent, short-term space filler. Moore could have done better. Instead, he did ok.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
Can we say this yet?
But it is equally valid to point out that the Royals got decent value for the money in Ankiel.
1. Aren’t free agent salaries down again and getting lower as we get closer to the season? I doubt the value of 1 WAR gets below what he signed for but there are other players that can provide equal benefit for a cheaper contract.
2. We don’t know if they have acquired decent value for the money in Ankiel. We wont’ know that until after the season, correct?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Yah, this move does nothing to Mitch, it does move Guillen from right field, which are good, but...
What this move does is put a 1 WAR player into right instead of Costa who would also project to be about 1 WAR player, or not allow the Royals to play Parraz and see what he could do in the majors a non contetending year, oh, and also spend another 3 million for no reason that we could have spent in the draft. It’s not a average signing when you light 3 million dollars and toss it into the wind, it’s a bad signing.
Go Royals!
don't like the post
None of the analysts think this is a bad signing. Spite for the sake of spite does not a joke make.
This may not be a bad signing, but in retrospect
it makes the Pods and Brian Anderson signings look even worse.
I'll definitely delete it then
After all, we didn’t heed your warnings bout Mike Jacobs decent OBP after 6 weeks, and boy, we sure ended up with egg on our faces then
I don’t mind the signing — but again, it’s average, to call it “good” would be to grade on a Dayton curve. And the jokes are mostly about Dayton in general. I mean, no one thinks Dayton Moore a remotely competent GM at this point just becaues he manages a non-horrible signing every once in a while, right?
And, by the way, there are analysts who think this is a bad signing — Neyer, Posnanski
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
re: jacobs
i don’t usually respond to the jacobs comments, but just this once….he was expected to have a poor obp, but he started the year well. at the time, people were ridiculing a league-average obp. you continue to bring this up every few weeks when i post a comment, but my original comment was reasonable.
nyr’s right on this one. there are plenty of moves to take shots at, but this one is a positive. at the cost of 3 mil, the team got a little better.
i enjoy the analysis on this site. some of the jokes are funny when they aren’t just the same sarcastic references to moore/hillman’s now well-documented shortcomings.
I bring up the Jacobs OBP thing
because it was a classic example of where you ’put us in our place" based on six weeks of performance which radically deviated from his career norms and, what do you know, he regressed like crazy. Why should we think this is any different?
You don’t have to find the jokes funny, and feel free to say do. And i’ll feel free to say why I think it’s a joke.
I’m more amazed that you are able to now admit that moore has shortcomings…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
i'm not a moore booster
most of my comments here will tend to be pro-moore, but it’s not because i think he’s a great gm. i don’t comment a whole lot, and i typically won’t comment if people have already voiced my opinion on a subject. not surprisingly, when moore makes a move that i think is stupid, by the time i make it to the thread, there are already dozens to hundreds of posts calling it out as stupid.
fwiw, jacobs was projected to have a good offensive year if he’d been used correctly and benched against LHP. as a platoon player and with reasonable luck, he might have posted a .320 OBP for the year.
fair enough
agree to disagree, I don’t want this to get snippier than it needs to be, and I know I tend to do that
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
but, yeah
jacobs was projected to suck, even if platooned properly
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Two questions:
1) Who are the analysts that like this signing?
2) Is JoePo an analyst? If he is, this signing was “baffling”. Rany? He described the current roster as “radioactive”.
Yep, GREAT signing.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
Dave Cameron liked it
I agree with him generally — I’m not as bullish (or is it bearish? I can never keep it straight) on Ankiel’s alleged upside, given that his only good perpipheral is really his power — he doesn’t know the strike zone, he’s 30, he hasn’t played more than about 120 game in either 2008 or 2009, etc. He’s not a center fielder. He’s a 1 WAR player, but he’s at least as likely to be replacement level as he is to be the 3.0 WAR player he’s never been but people imagine as his upside, and so on.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
he's also the royal's second best outfielder
and for $3 mil, he’s a decent addition.
Did the Royals trade DeJesus or Maier?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
if given a choice between a 1-year deal
where either Maier or Ankiel plays for free in 2010, would you really take Maier?
for free?
I dunno… maybe. I’m not a pro scout. Statiscally, no, there’s little to go on to show that Ankiel is better than Maier. Maier is probalby 10 runs better defensively, and Ankiel’s offensive prowess is greatly exaggerated, especially when you take into account his league and his horrific plate discipline. He’s got power, that’s it.
The irony of people citing Ankiel being hurt all last season as if that’s supposed to give him more upside is rich as well.
I can maybe but him being slightly better than Maier, but improving on a bad player… well, that’s the logic that lead to the Betancourt trade (of course, Maier is much better than TPJ, and Ankiel is much better than Betancourt).
One thing that isn’t addressed is that there were players who are better than Ankiel who signed for much less. I’d be willing to bet that Ryan Church, Ryan Langerhans, and Gabe Gross alltogether make less money than Ankiel is guaraanteed from KC. And I would take any of those guys straight up over Ankiel.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
and when a GM is topping out at "decent"
then, yeah, we’re gong to mock him
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
Then why didn't they sign him before they signed Podsednik?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
DO NOT QUESTION
Dayton's brilliance or his tactics. I'm sure there's a very good reason that he just doesn't have time to educate us about.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 25, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's bullish
Bullish is when you are expecting the market, or a business, or an industry, or an athlete to go up in value or performance. Bearish is when you’re pessimistic.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 25, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
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