Can 2010 "top" 2006? Or, The Process Arc, etc

by slayor on Jan 25, 2010 10:50 PM EST

After Dayton Moore's blockbuster offseason (which I can only assume is nearing completion) - made up of the inspired signings of Brian Anderson, Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Jason Kendall, and other assorted fringe major league flotsam - I started thinking about Allard Baird.

Allard Baird loved to bring in aging veteran (past their prime) players at seemingly reasonable salaries as well. We saw this in Juan Gonzalez, Benito Santiago, Mark Redman, Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, Odalis Perez, etc. So here enters the question: Will the 2010 Royals perform better than the 2006 Royals (the team fielded in the last full year of Baird's reign)? After the jump, I've attached the top 9 in AB's for the 2006 team to give you an idea of who was hitting the field every day.

2B Grudzielanek / 548 AB / .740 OPS

LF Brown / 527 AB / .815 OPS

CF DeJesus / 491 AB / .810 OPS

SS Berroa / 474 AB / .592 OPS

3B Teahen / 393 AB / .874 OPS

C Buck / 371 AB / .702 OPS

RF Sanders / 325 AB / .729 OPS

1B Mientkiewicz / 314 AB / .770 OPS

German / 279 AB / .880 OPS

The 2006 team combined for a slash line of:

BA .271 (11/14)

OBP: .332 (11/14)

SLG: .411 (14/14)

With a .743 OPS (13/14)

The 2009 team combined for a slash line of:

BA .259 (12/14)

OBP .318 (13/14)

SLG .405 (12/14)

With a .724 OPS (13/14)

The 2006 team combined for a 5.67 ERA, 14th out of 14 in the AL.

Actual W-L: 62-100

Pythagorean W-L: 63-99

The 2009 team combined for a 4.83 ERA, 12th out of 14 in the AL.

Pythagorean W-L: 66-96

Actual W-L: 65-97

So, you tell me: Will this team lose 100 games again? Can we relive the nightmare?

Poll

Will the 2010 Royals lose at least 100 games like the 2006 Royals?

YES, they will lose at least 100 games. Change you can believe in!

93 votes

NO, they will not lose at least 100 games.

170 votes

2003!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

52 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 30 comments | 3 recs |

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Comments

I voted 2003

although I think if that happened it would be more the beginning of a decent run for us…there is a lot more depth in the “middle minors” than there was in 2003.

I kinda see two opposing extremes for the Royals, and this year could be a huge year for DM (most likely things are going to fall somewhere in the middle)

On the one hand, there is a core of Greinke, Soria, Butler, DeJesus. If you add in to that a “breakout” from Gordon, big steps forward from Hochevar, continued improvement offensively by Callaspo, Getz turns into a poor man’s Brian Roberts, maybe 75-80 wins and some of the minor leaguers really continue to improve and are on the cusp of becoming real contributors, I think things are really looking up.

However, if Meche is hurt, Getz is nothing more than a 4A player, Gordon continues to muddle along or gets hurt, Moose/Hos stagnate, one or two of our pitching prospects blows out an arm, etc. and we are 64-98, then it may be time to pull the plug on DM.

I think he’s got the overall right idea but he’s just made too many mistakes, and the bottom line is production. If we’re in the 4th/5th year of his tenure and we’re still bumbling along at 65-70 wins with no real successes from the minors to point to, then I hate to say it but I think it will be time for him to go.

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 24, 2010 1:39 PM EST reply actions

I'm curious....

I think he’s got the overall right idea…

What “idea” are you thinking of?

by kcemigre on Jan 24, 2010 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

trying to build through the draft

is what I meant. but, that doesn’t absolve him of making some really stupid FA signings; there’s no reason that we have to be terrible now to be good in the future. d_f points out that we could have signed branyan for close to nothing last year and he would have given us much better production than jacobs, just to name one example.

imagine if we had signed him and kept nunez, the team is probably at least a few wins better if not several. I like DM and I really want him to succeed, but he’s really at the “shit or get off the pot” stage. things better start improving really quickly.

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 24, 2010 2:30 PM EST up reply actions

It's unlikely the Royals lose 100 unless Greinke gets hurt

If that happens, then 120 is not out of reach.

by AxDxMx on Jan 24, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions

I like Greinke

But I’m not sure I’m ready to say he’s a 20 WAR player

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 24, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

replacement level???

how many negative war out of replacement/bullpen + wear and tear on bullpen, 20 is a stretch, 15 doesn’t sound entirely crazy

by I miss Jack Buck on Jan 25, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions

the best seasons by an individual in baseball history

babe Ruth, were around 14

Barry Bonds int he early 2000s had about three 12 WAR seasons in a row

Since the strike, only Pedro’s 1999 season comes close to 12 WAR.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions

He doesn't have to be 20 WAR when you replace him with somebody that is -10 WAR

Ok, maybe I was exaggerating just a little there.

by AxDxMx on Jan 25, 2010 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

wouldn't you have to change the replacement level though?

If a season in 1918 would have to have an adjusted replacement level, right? I mean, the average player today is better than back in the day… especially as Ruth played in the deadball era…

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Jan 25, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

yes, people do that

Rally does that… but it still pointing out that relative to any era, no one is 20 WAR

and

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 12:21 PM EST up reply actions

Greinke is +30 and don't be a hater

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 25, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions

I predict 67 wins

Or for those miserable, pessimistic people 95 losses.

It’s not an arc. It’s like a pebble skipping on the water. It skips up, bounces down, skips up again. But every little skip is a little bit lower.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 24, 2010 6:46 PM EST reply actions

And eventually it just sinks

Which Dayton is working hard on speeding up.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 24, 2010 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

What should the goal be for this season?

I mean, we have a long way to go…

…is the goal .500 and 82?

…75?

..70?

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Jan 25, 2010 11:50 AM EST reply actions

I'm all for setting ambitious targets

So 70 wins is a noble goal. Tough, but just about possible.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 25, 2010 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

2010 Goal:

The unstated 2010 goal is for Glass to pocket just enough revenue sharing to make a good profit, while still spending enough to keep Bud off his ass.

Marketing plan is to overhype the mediocre veterans to the naive fanbase just enough to keep attendance at above-Florida levels, without actually promising a 500 season or anything.

Toss in some GM-speak, like “Trust the Process”, and “Fans need to subdue their instant gratification mindset”, mix, and there you have it.

Another year, another undeserved profit for Glass – and another year removed from a once-proud legacy for this formerly great organization.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jan 25, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

The quote is actually

“Fans need to subdue their gratification mindset”

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on Jan 25, 2010 12:45 PM EST up reply actions

"We need to play better baseball"

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 25, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

Czxaqk is working on his slap shot

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 25, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

I just don't understand these new fangled slash lines. I really don't.

Air Cassel - approved for takeoff

Always in motion is the future.
-- Yoda

by kabrink on Jan 25, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

you know

that really does seem to be Glass’ goal (pocket a profit, keep Selig off his ass) and why I probably won’t be going to the K in 2010.

by KC Gunner on Jan 25, 2010 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

Barring some miracle of stunningly awesome play

I doubt I make it for much more than a possible Opening Day or a handful of Zack starts. i used to go 15-20 times a year.

by AxDxMx on Jan 26, 2010 3:02 AM EST up reply actions

fair enough

I might go see a Zack start. After going around 6 to 10 times in 2008 (when I only got into town in August), I made just one trip in 2009 (with an out of town colleague to see the BoSox). But the moves for Yuni, Jacobs, Kendall, etc etc just are killing me.

by KC Gunner on Jan 26, 2010 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

+1

by jbrocato on Jan 26, 2010 7:48 AM EST up reply actions

Moore's been fighting a two-front war

as Rany has pointed out. I think he’s fighting one of them—rebuilding the farm—rather well. In the other he has obviously failed. But will ultimately be judged on how many quality big leaguers the farm produces…the key to ‘the process’ is following waves of prospects who graduate with continued waves behind them. If Moore and Co. keep signing an Arguelles every year, I think we’re going to be fine in the long run. There will be a continuous stream of players feeding the big league team. I never expected to build the big league team by Horse trading our mediocre big league talent or signing whatever desperate free agents who are willing to come to a last-place team. Not saying he couldn’t be fighting the second war better (or less retardedly), but I’m not returning with a verdict until I’ve seen the first crop of prospects graduate which should happen in September of this year/April of 2011.

by jackie ballgame on Jan 26, 2010 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Oh, I agree with you, Jackie

The other war, assuming Moore is doing as well as it appears he is, is FAR more important, and we can’t judge for sure for a couple more years minimum.

What I was implying by slamming Glass is that there would NOT have been this 2nd war to fight had Glass not been such a SHITTY owner for the first 12 years or so of his tenure. I’m willing to give Glass credit for changing his thought process and allowing Moore to spend more money on player development, but I’m sure as hell not ready to simply forgive or forget Glass’ NEGLIGENCE in the past – the organization needs to earn my forgiveness by having the stomach to stick with the new process long enough to become a relavant contender, at least their fair share of the time.

That being said, I would APPRECIATE more CANDOR from the organization about why we should not seek instant gratification. Tell me you understand WHY they may be perceiving their fanbase as impatient; i.e., 15 years of horrible baseball that is PRIMARILY the fault of ownership.

Sadly, the organization still does not get this. Just today, there is a VERY DEFENSIVE post by Dick Kaegel on the team’s website, defending this offseason’s acquisitions! Basically, Kaegel is taunting the critics by saying, look, we signed Ankiel! Criticize that! Regardless of how Ankiel does, in other words, even if the Royals prove correct and Ankiel regains his 08 form, WHAT THE HELL IS GAINED BY THE TONE OF THAT ARTICLE? It is simply stunning to see that. Do they not have anybody in PR look over these things before posting? If so, can they be so naive as to think it is good business to intentionally ALIENATE a segment of their fanbase? I’m just flabbergasted by it. I highly recommend everybody read (or reread) that with my thoughts in mind. Unbelievable.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jan 26, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

I really think Moore is failing in both wars

If you look at the Top 15 prospects in the Royals organization, how many of them are position players? Moustakas, Hosmer, ….? And those 2 may be tanking. I don’t trust him to trade the talent we have, as he’s already wasted 2 good young arms and gotten nothing but crap in return.

I really think this is a make or break year for DM and he’s panicking. If the Royals don’t approach .500 or at least show more than a marginal improvement, I think Glass will fire him.

by AxDxMx on Jan 26, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions