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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

The Kansas City Royals are reshaping their entire outfield and making Jose Guillen their full-time designated hitter.
While introducing newcomer Rick Ankiel on Monday, general manager Dayton Moore said the injury-prone Guillen would be replaced in right field by David DeJesus, last year's left fielder. The 30-year-old Ankiel will play center and Scott Podsednik, another newcomer, will be in left. Guillen is slated to make $13 million this season.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/baseball/mlb/01/25/ankiel.royals.ap/index.html

about 2 years ago Tiny JoCro 65 comments 1 recs  | 

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"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 25, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

From the same organization repping DDJ's defense in LF?

/baffled. Switch DDJ and Ankiel and Im ‘ok’ with this.

by Boots 58 on Jan 25, 2010 7:00 PM EST reply actions  

way to work that into this thread

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 25, 2010 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

that's the thing about Dayton Moore

He’s not afraid to give full-time jobs to sucky players and to play them in the wrong positions. Ya gotta respect that!

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 26, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

See... this doesn't work for me at all

Throw Ankiel into Right. He’s the only one of those who has an arm. Put Pods in CF… he’ll be average there… if it doesn’t work, bring in Anderson…. Leave DDJ in LF where he brings his value up…

DDJ has a poor arm in RF. It wasn’t good in LF… but now it’s exposed. This won’t work very well.

What do you think?

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Jan 25, 2010 8:46 PM EST reply actions  

I'd take Maier over Pods

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Same here.

But if that’s not happening, I’d definitely take him over Anderson.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 25, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Dejesus has a very weak arm.

That’s the first thing I thought of when I saw this. It’s baffling why Ankiel wouldn’t be in right with that cannon. Maybe a Dejesus trade is coming. Surely they can’t be this stupid, can they?

Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.

by royaldaddy on Jan 26, 2010 12:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I like your optimism. It's so cute!

Or was that last question just rhetorical?

by Gross(est) on Jan 26, 2010 12:48 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

He can turn the 9-6-3

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Any One Of

Us could see the best alignment for the ‘10 OF given the current roster. Why can’t Hillton do the same?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 25, 2010 9:28 PM EST reply actions  

Can't Educate

The Process/The Contest/Play Better Baseball/No Baseball Questions/I Was On The Toilet

Pick your poison.

"You know what, I mean I cried in bed for a while, moaning 'Why!? Why did this have to happen?'"

Zack Greinke on the Brad Pitt - Jennifer Aniston split

by DCRoyals on Jan 25, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure Mitch is gone

DFA’d, and Anderson will be the bench OF’er. Older (just), more expensive, worse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 25, 2010 9:49 PM EST reply actions  

Mitch over Anderson.

Are we all in agreement on that?

by Dadunca on Jan 25, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

as in Mitch> Anderson?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 25, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

It Would Have

Been a mighty platoon

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh yeah

Frankly, I’m pretty sure that MITCH > Pods is universally obvious

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 25, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Well there's the old school-new school debate there.

I’m just surprised if anyone has Mitch behind B. Nikola A.

by Dadunca on Jan 25, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions  

No one should

I fear Dayton will though, when it comes to deciding between one or other for the final spot on the roster.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 25, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, at some point (and it won't be long)...

…I predict Moore will point out that Brian N. Anderson is our only right-handed outfielder.

by kcemigre on Jan 26, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

F-me. this is totally going to happen. and the problem is, he’s not totally wrong—platoon splits can matter—but that is not a reason to give a bad player playing time. he just can’t see the forest for the trees.

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don't get this one bit.

Even the signings of Ankiel and Podsednik can make sense. The front office felt that injuries to Coco and Jose really hurt the team last year, so they sign some extra guys in case that happens. I don’t like who they signed or their reasoning but I can almost follow their thinking.

One of Ankiel’s positives is his arm and we’re going to put it in CF with DDJ’s below average arm (but better range) in right? Can anyone possibly come up with a reason to support this move?

I refuse to believe this will actually happen.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 25, 2010 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

I'll go a bit contrarian here ...

… I suspect strongly that a strong arm in RF isn’t as important as it’s often assumed to be. Or, to be more specific, I think that a good arm in center field is at least as important as in right field, and it doesn’t receive the attention (comparatively) that it deserves.

The first factor is that the CF simply makes more plays than the RF. More balls in play in the OF leads to more situations in which an OF’s arm is going to be a factor. Smart teams run on weak-armed OFs, and my impression is that I see more bases taken on weak-armed CFs (2nd to third on a single or taggingup on a fly) than on weak-armed RFs.

The second consideration is that it’s more important to hold runners at third base than to hold them at second base, and the CF has many more plays of that type than does the RF. Given that the CF will have more range and make more plays in the deepest part of the park, the CF is going to handle more balls that are deep in the OF (in the gaps or near the fence) and the distances to home plate are generally greater for the CF than for the RF.

To be clear; this is not an argument to put the strongest arm in CF. Range is still the most important factor for any outfielder; a noodle-arm right fielder with excellent range is more valuable on defense than a quasi-statue with an arm that could take down a starship with shields raised. But if you have two guys with similar range, it doesn’t seem at all obvious to me that the stronger arm should automatically be placed in RF.

by Steve Nelson on Jan 26, 2010 2:34 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Makes sense to me.

I also agree that I (and a lot of people) always overrate the importance of an arm. I just dread base hits to right field when there is a runner on first if DDJ is in right. Of course, he’ll at least hold the guy at 3rd because he’ll get to a ton of balls that went to the wall the last few years.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Jan 26, 2010 6:58 AM EST up reply actions  

our pitching staff is going to allow zero hits this season, so these

concerns are moot. (I just like being able to type the word moot – moot, moot, moot)

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 26, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair points

I wish Ankiel had similar range to DJ though.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 26, 2010 9:32 AM EST up reply actions  

You can't use that cannon arm until you get to the ball

Well, I guess you can, but you’ll look really stupid.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 26, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

+1

humor continues to be the lone saving grace of being a royals fan

Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd

Great points. – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

This was more or less what we all assumed was going to happen, though, right?

The real question is what happens to Callaspo if Getz takes over the 2B role full time. It would be a shame to see our second best hitter last year relegated to a part time DH role (or the bench).

It would be great if we were relegating our second best hitter to the bench because we brought in guys that could outhit him. As things stand now, we brought in four or five inferior hitters to a team that already struggled to score runs.

Thus rots respect, Manly Hitler

by marbotty on Jan 26, 2010 8:34 AM EST reply actions  

They also said at the presser

That Jose Guillen is moving to 3B, Alex Gordon to C and Billy Butler to SS

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 26, 2010 9:32 AM EST reply actions  

Remember when we originally heard that Moore was choosing between

Pods, Anderson and Ankiel.

How did we end up with all 3 again?

Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed

by Top Ramen on Jan 26, 2010 9:46 AM EST reply actions  

The new market inefficiency:

Volume

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Welcome

Randy Winn to the Kansas City Royals!!!

by higs on Jan 26, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm half-expecting Damon to come back to KC ...

… because Moore will guarantee him plenty of playing time in CF.

by Steve Nelson on Jan 26, 2010 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

if we thought DDJ's arm wouldn't play in RF

imagine the horror of seeing Damon 5 hop’n throws to 2nd

by AtTheWall on Jan 26, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I've wondered...

…the same thing as I’ve watched Damon’s free agency draw out interminably. – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

What of the notion that...

…Ankiel wouldn’t come to KC unless he received first dibs on center? You can’t underestimate, or ignore, the desires of free agents when assessing how they are used once here—-or at least what they are promised. So I say that Ankiel woundn’t have signed with KC without this assurance.

And I agree with Steve Nelson’s assessment above on arm strength and center fielders. I say this after watching a full season of Juan Pierre in CF for the Cubs a few years ago. Wow was that bad—-runners gone wild at Wrigley. – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions  

Bradley

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea, its not like Ankiel had a ton of suitors

I’m willing to bet we were one of the only teams willing to hand him a starting job. That Dayton would let Ankiel dictate the terms of him coming here is ludicrous.

But hey, maybe we should use this to our advantage? I’m only willing to attend Royals games if I can get a Dugout Suite. I have absolutely no leverage. Make it happen Dayton.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 26, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

excellent comparison, d_f

Ankiel, who is far less accomplished that Bradley in the first place, can dictate a postion to a team, all the while using said team in the hopes of getting a better team interested in him one year from now, and NOBODY in the media calls him out on it for being selfish.

Meanwhile, Bradley is called selfish for practically anything he does.

It’s a double standard, and I dare say it’s not too hard to argue that it smacks of being, at least in part, racially motivated, whether consciously or unconsciously.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jan 26, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, there's another explanation:...

Bradley = world-class @$$hole.
Ankiel = gets good clubhouse reviews, no bad reports roundabout.

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

i may be misremembering....

but isnt Ankiel supposed to be a huge asshole?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 26, 2010 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

We need a...

…Cards guy here to settle this. In other words, I concede that I may be misremembering.

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

a google search for rick ankiel + asshole....

yielded nothing, so a Cards fan might be necessary

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 27, 2010 11:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Aside: woundn't = wouldn't

But more importantly, I think maybe KC signs Ankiel under the auspices of playing center but then moves him as needed—-as the outfield defense reveals itself in games.

I don’t KNOW that Ankiel demanded this. But perhaps he asked, and GMDM agreed thinking that it’s a wash between Ankiel and DDJ on the center/left situation.

On Milton Bradley, well, he WAS a good player. I don’t know if he’s become such a head case as to have lost most of his effectiveness. I mean his skills are high OBP and decent RF defense. That’s pretty much it at this point—-no real speed, no power, and didn’t hit for avg. last season. – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Jan 26, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

the point wasn't about Bradley

although he’s clearly the superior player to Ankiel if you look at their careers — and if you really think 2009 is the litmus test for a players’ value, well, then if Bradley was bad, then Ankiel was utterly worthless a la Bloomquist.

The point is that the Royals shouldn’t be putting up with demands for a certain position from a mediocre, overhyped, 30-something outfielder like Rick Ankiel who’s upside is probably Milton Bradley’s 2007. .Of course, that assumes Ankiel plays the whole season (which he’s never done in the majors as a position player). Bradley put up those numbers in 96 games.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

i'm going to reserve judgment for opening day

it doesn’t matter much to me what hillman and moore say now, but rather what they do when they realize they’ve put a right fielder’s arm in center and watch their right fielder get run on all throughout spring training all while gaining no range in center.

by 9il on Jan 26, 2010 1:19 PM EST reply actions  

I'm hoping their promise of letting Ankiel play CF

Will be broken as quickly as the promise to Olivo that he is the everyday catcher.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 26, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Or HoRam In

The rotation.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

this is mostly positive news

the royals are making the painfully obvious but extremely important move by removing Guillen from the outfield. sure, everyone knew that they needed to do exactly that, but until now, we didn’t know that ‘everyone’ included royals management.

re: ddj vs ankiel in cf, it’s probably about a wash. ankiel’s probably a bit more athletic; ddj probably has better instincts. i haven’t seen either of them play much cf lately, so we’ll see how it plays out in spring training.

by kcdc1 on Jan 26, 2010 1:30 PM EST reply actions  

That's a good observation, kcdc1

Looking at the big picture, at least the organization’s stubborn adherence to a “scouting only” approach, rather than an approach that incorporates as much input as possible, hasn’t stopped them from FINALLY doing something about the statue playing RF the last two seasons. If the cost is a relatively minor use of the available defensive assets, it is still worth it.

Here’s hoping Guillen is as pissed off about this as he initially seems, and here’s hoping he goes ballistic enough about it in spring training to give Moore the excuse he needs (although none of us on this blog would wait for a suitable excuse in the first place) to simply DUMP Guillen as a SUNK COST and give the DH job to Callaspo. Alternatively, we can all root for a season ending injury, or maybe even a faked injury by Guillen, which he could blame on not playing the outfield caused his hamstring to balk or something.

We can hope – it’s all we have, even if it is irrational hope all too often.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jan 26, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

that should read

“relatively minor misuse”

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jan 26, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

It troubles me

How much Ankiel sounds like Teahan. Great athlete, monster arm, has some power but strikes out a ton. I’m not looking forward to more of that rally killing frustration. Assuming we have rallies.

by LaFLamme on Jan 26, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions  

Sure

He can entertain the fans by bringing back his pitching at the backstop routine.

by LaFLamme on Jan 26, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

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