Do You Remember How Much Optimism There Was Last Off-Season?
by Freneau on Jan 26, 2010 1:45 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintMost of us are pessimists now, but it's important to remember that it hasn't always been that way. The truth is, Dayton Moore had posted an iffy record for at least two years heading into last season. Yet, even after the winter of Farnsworth & Bloomquist, there was still a lot of residual belief that the Royals were turning it around and that a mid-division finish was highly possible.
About this time last year, we went through the AL Central one by one, asking if you felt the Royals were better than each team. As we head into the 2010 season, we'll be doing the same thing. Before we get into that, let's take another look back at whatwe thought last year.
RR Readers Asked "Are the Royals Better than the ___"
| Yes % | No% | Wins Difference Over Royals | |
| Twins | 23 | 77 | +21 |
| Tigers | 63 | 37 | +21 |
| White Sox | 42 | 58 | +14 |
| Indians | 18 | 81 | 0 |
I don't know what looks worse: 63% of us thinking the Royals were better than the Tigers (who were coming off of a bad season) or 23% thinking the Royals would be better than the Twins. Heck, 42% saw the Royals as better than the White Sox, who finished with 14 more wins.
And weirdly, we we're most pessimistic about the Royals being better than the Tribe, and they ended up with the same record.
I'll be interested to see how we vote this year.
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because they were all dead to start with?
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I was certainly optimistic
I really believed that Jacobs would hold his own, and even provide protection for AG and Butler in the middle of the lineup. Although, maybe if he’d been used against righties more and lefties less, it would have worked out a little differently (or if they hadn’t tried to make him a more patient hitter, then bench him because he hadn’t come around yet).
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 2:22 PM EST reply actions
the crazy thing is
nobody really could predict “Greinke will be the best pitcher in the AL” and we still ended up having a down season
pretty incredible if you think about it
I think you mean, "Greinke will be THE BEST PLAYER IN THE HISTORY OF ANY SPORT EVER"
we could have predicted Zack would go 16-8, though. we just couldn’t have predicted that the 8 losses wouldn’t be his fault
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
(granted, he did only hit 94 OPS+(AL) vs RHP, in 367 PAs; 44 vs LHP, 111 PAs)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=jacobmi02&year=2009&t=b
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
im to the point where i cheer for individual performances
Zack last year kept me in it as did Billy Butler and his doubles. This year i have no clue, maybe a Zack repeat, Gordon breaking out? DDJ getting thrown out 100 times?
Warriors come out and play
I'd be interested
In seeing our win prediction thread.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
On days I'm feeling optimistic
I’d be willing to go as high as 73
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
one underplayed concern
is the possible decline/injury/absence due to trade of meche
we could have the long awaited Davies or Hochevar breakout, and it would just get the royals back what they used to have from Gil
well Hochevar has shown at times he can be good
i would like to see Tejada in the rotation, but Master Trey will continue to do some crazy rotation consisting of Chen, bringing back Ponson to pitch every home game, etc etc. A breakout from the bullpen “actually doing their jobs” would go alot farther than anyone one single players contribution.
Warriors come out and play
I meant for last year
This year is too depressing.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I was one of the optomistic guys
But this year I’m not so much. I’m going to go with lower expectations and if we win, we blow my expectations out of the water! Is this being a realist? A pessimist?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
i don't think it's pessimism
if what’s (probably) going to happen is bad news, then expecting bad news is just being realistic
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
We're gonna stink
Big time.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
This Is Now
Officially a recurring theme for you.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for posting this
Its seems all the “experts” are never held accountable for their predictions good or bad.
2010 Royals have one chance at being "not godawful".
And it revolves on the pitching staff all putting it together at the same time. IE:
200+ innings of <3 ERA ball from Greinke
200+ innings of 3.5-4 ERA ball from Meche
200 innings of 4.0 ERA ball from Bannister
180 innings of 4.5 ERA ball from Davies
A #5 starter who doesn’t piss down his leg every 5th day.
And a bullpen that is not horrible – I think a lot of people are already forgetting how badly the bullpen hamstrung this team last year. Having Soria healthy, Farnsworth in the mopup role from the get-go, Cruz with a bounceback and Trey-sama without some of his favorite tools of doom (jamey wright, bale, etc) should also help.
Basically, we know the offensive is going to be piss poor, barring some form of bizarre circumstance where things actually swing to the 99th percentile of awesome and we get lucky. However, I think there is enough talent / proven talent in our starting rotation that they could bail this team out from being the 100 loss clusterfuck a lot of people are already predicting.
All of this beautiful speculation being said, it is most likely our rotation will slip into some form of injured/mediocre and this team will be hemorrhaging self-respect by the ASB.
-
Where are all the great bullpen guys we're signing?
The bullpen is going to be about the same as last year I think.
Why do you need to sign anymore bullpen arms
when you've already got Kyle Farnsworth in there?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 26, 2010 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
He's a breakout candidate<code/>
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
But He Sucks
At HTML.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 27, 2010 6:57 PM EST up reply actions
i'd add that, along with the pitching, improved defense could help make up for the dismal offense
not that there’s any guarantee the defense has actually improved, but it should, especially if JoGui is really only the DH.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 26, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
maybe
Guillen was about -19 runs in RF. Even aasuming DDJ is average there (and that would hurt his value), if Podsednik is average in LF (and that’s a bit optimistic), that’s still about 10 runs worse than DDJ was last season. And at best, Ankiel is -5 in CF, whic his a few runs worse than the Royals were in CF last season… so all in all, not that much of an improvement.
A lot of this would be solved, of course, if they would simply realize that 1) Maier should definitely be starting over Pods, and 2) that Maier should play CF, and DDJ LF.
The personell isn’t great, but they could at least deploy them optimally.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
wow I was really optomistic about the new guys
That didn’t work out… Jacobs/CoCo/Farnsworth/Cruz…. all sucked. Sigh. I’ll be more guarded in my picks this year.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
i wonder who won?
my irrational jacobs love may have cost me the victory
Thus rots respect, Manly Hitler
two gems hidden in there
NYRoyal calls you out for “snarky sarcasm” for chosing the royals to win 90 games…and then he picks them to pick 86. Haha
I picked 73 wins, and was chastised that "the only way we would win that few games is if the team died in a place crash.
PWND
See: Ignoring Omaha
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
by tcon125 on Jan 26, 2010 5:02 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Aviles' injury was a killer...
I know we laugh at Moore, et al’s insistence that injuries killed this team, but this could have been a .500 bunch with Aviles at 80% of his ‘08 self, and with Crisp, Meche, and Gordon staying healthy. Of course, it’s his job to plan for those injuries and to make sure that the team doesn’t implode when they occur, but most of the optimism revolved around Aviles following up his rookie year with like production and defense, Coco’s defense and Gordon’s improvement. All of those things came up craps.
yes and no
Aviles was really a huge loss, but CRisp was avaialble because he had injury concerns to begin with, and the Meche problems may have been largely self inflicted
and the Guillen injury helped the team
don't forget TPJ's injured hand
that, if nothing else, provided entertainment
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Crisp...
I could have sworn that I typed “Crisp’s injury was very predictable” or something to that effect…
by billexgordler on Jan 26, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
you're right it was a killer (him and gordon)
with him and a splash of luck we would have won 73 like i predicted. The team was never close to great, but had an outside shot of being average.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
Aviles hurt
But I have a hard time believing a shortstop is the difference between 81 wins and 68 wins or whatever we won.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm a big Aviles fan
But even I don’t think that he’s worth 13 WAR. Or 14-15 WAR, considering Yuni was his replacement.
Hey d_f, has Fangraphs developed a special WAR scale for Yuni? Something like WAB (Wins Above Betancourt)?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 26, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully Yuni plays around 4 WAB this year
that would put him close to 0 WAR, right?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Although injuries aren't ever good
keep in mind that injuries were why Alberto Callaspo ended up getting playing time last season — Gordon’s injury moved Teahen off of 2B, and put Callaspo there, and he had a excellent season with the bat (which outweighted his butchery with the glove).
Naturally, the teams responds by trying to bury him even further this off-season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 26, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Of course...
To be clear, in my “Blame injuries” post above, I’m simply reminding myself and others whence last year’s optimism. In retrospect, it was simply a bad team, but I do remember why I thought they could be decent.
I don’t think Teahen would have lasted long at 2B, and without Gordon’s injury, Teahen would have been used precisely as he should be: a supersub at the corners. Callaspo would likely have been installed at 2B by June at the latest, and the difference between him and Teahen, offensively and defensively, isn’t so great that it would have cost the team more than a game.
by billexgordler on Jan 26, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
Also Cruz was TERRIBLE...
…not to mention the rest of the guys in the bullpen, which reminds me: there’s nothing easier to use hindsight on than shitty bullpens. Even if a bullpen is constructed beautifully, if it blows up, you can always say, well, you could tell that they were going to blow up because either, A) they were never that good in the first place or B) the half-life of a successful middle reliever is very short. Most relievers are relievers because they’re not good enough to be starters, so there’s always evidence available to show why they’re not all that good.
All that said, the Royals bullpen last year was shitty in foresight and hindsight, but Cruz was a tough one to predict.
by billexgordler on Jan 26, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
ok i'll never say my predicted total again
When is this season’s prediction happening?
I bet if we took a poll now it would come in at about 70, but if we did another in march it would be 77. A lot of optimism will show up in March.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
I think there was reason for optimism last year, even with the crap signings and bad trades
Aviles at SS was coming off a huge year, Gordon was expected to take the next step as was Billy Butler. Crisp got hurt, and obviously our bullpen was terrible as was our 5th starter for the start of the season. Without the injuries this team would have won about 10 more games I think. Though I think we were all obviously a little too optimistic to start the year. My 86 win prediction seems laughable, but now I’ve swung back the other direction and think they’ll struggle to win 70 if Trey plays the lineup I think he’s gonna play.
it'll be real easy this year
No, no, no, no, no.
by sfeldkamp on Jan 26, 2010 8:58 PM EST via mobile reply actions
The injury bug really did hurt us.
I mean, not as bad as the Mets, so they win that phase of the contest.
Aviles was coming off a GREAT season. I was so excited for him to reach 75% of his numbers. Then I figured Crisp’s injuries would be something like a pulled hammi… that’d only put him out a few weeks… not 100+ games. So I was counting on more from him. Gordon was supposed to be a break out… now we are saying the same thing later….
If Aviles would have had the season he did two years ago last year, coupled with Billy’s breakout, and if Gordon would have “broken” out…. you’ve got 3 above average bats in the lineup. Then you take Meche (Hillman inflicted or not) and he’s more effective coupled with Grienkes season…
I predict Grienke would have won 4 more games by himself with those bats hitting. …
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I am optimistic about this year.
I think they’ll hang around .500 and end up with 77 or 78 wins.
Turning Kool-Aid to Jesus Juice since 2009.
Alex Gordon is a bust
He will never be even an above-average batter.
Never.
How much proof do we need?
Not sure what "proof" you're looking at
He’s already been an above average hitter. His OPS+ in 2008 was 109 (100 is average).
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 27, 2010 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
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