Ahhh...after the Fangraphs B.S., here's some optimism to balance it out.

Chances? Slim. But not unheard of. I need stuff like this before Opening Day or I'll go crazy.

over 2 years ago Matty486 19 comments 0 recs |

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That is a feel good read

And makes a snowy Friday a bit better.

by Boots 58 on Jan 29, 2010 5:05 PM EST reply actions

I was walking my dog last night

And just to cheer myself up I did try to think of scenarios in which the Royals were competitive. It hinged mostly on Gordon become Longoria-esque, Butler developing 30 HR power, and Meche and Banny being 3.80 FIP guys. I even convinced myself Pods and Ankiel would play good defense. Ha!

Then my dog pooped on my shoe and I was brought back to reality.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 29, 2010 5:16 PM EST reply actions

the thing is

umm… we had Butler, Soria, & Greinke LAST YEAR

and the team was still bad

they got us to a non-100 loss season

by Freneau on Jan 29, 2010 5:42 PM EST reply actions

Come on...

Soria was injured for awhile. Thats the reason we lost all those games

by Boots 58 on Jan 29, 2010 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

ok

so Soria will be 10% better/valuable in 2010, Greinke will probably be 5% worse (he had a GREAT season) and Butler might be a little better, lets say 10%

what we really need is a huge comeback campaign from Gordon and Hochevar/Davies/Tejeda to step up big time/full time

by Freneau on Jan 29, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Don't forget Betancourt's dead cat bounce

by Gopherballs on Jan 29, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Rec'd for putting together the concepts of

Yuni and “dead cat bounce”

by sterlingice on Jan 31, 2010 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah I was being sarcastic

Agreed on those values, though Greinke’s value right now is off the charts so a 5% less would still be very high.

We really are counting on those other guys for any shot of improving this year

by Boots 58 on Jan 29, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions

If people expect Greinke to repeat

they are in for a shock. It’s possible… but, um, a “mere” 6 WAR season (he was about 9.5 this season) would not be a disappointment, it’s merely “regression” in the harmless sense.

Even Pedro Martinez only did “it” twice. Maybe Greinke will be another Pedro, but betting on it is, um a bad idea.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 29, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

If the defense were to improve, would it mitigate a potential regression to the mean for Greinke?

by AxDxMx on Jan 29, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions

for his ERA or RA

I’m just talking about his fielding independent stats. It would help the team overall, of course, and all the pitchers, but Greinke’s 2009 was a great, great season. It’s unlikely that any pitcher has that kind of true talent level. But who knows for 2010… Tim Lincecum has put up a couple ~8 WAR seasons in a row, maybe Greinke will “only” put up 8.5 i 2010.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 29, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

I think at Greinke's peak, this may be his true talent level

I don’t think he surprised himself at all last year. When Greinke starts impressing himself, I’ll start to think that maybe he’s outclassing his talent. I’d be surprised if he put up a season less than 6 WAR next year without some kind of serious issue bothering him.

by AxDxMx on Jan 30, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

and, ironically, we still also need

two more outifielders

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 29, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

or even outfielders

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 29, 2010 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

You prejudiced

against innifielders? What’s bellybuttons got to do with anything anyway?

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Jan 31, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

in reality

in reality, were not gonna be a contender even in this weak of a division. Or probably not even .500. However, if three guys step up to the plate (literally, gordon) we can win 75 and at least be watchable. Alex gordon, one of hochevar/davies, and rick ankiel. If gordon can hit 20 bombs, play good d, and get on base a lot it will add depth that we desperately need to the lineup. Hochevar or davies needs to get better command of their good stuff, and take the 3 spot by force in the rotation. And we saw what ankiel can do two years ago. Will all this happen? No. But if we catch a little luck, it might.

by kcfan92 on Jan 29, 2010 10:12 PM EST reply actions

We're gonna stink

Big time.

The Royals basically have eight good players: Zack, Meche, Black Jack Soria, Butler, Gordon, DeJesus, Callaspo, and Banny. I’m hopeful about Banny.

Everyone else is somewhere around replacement level. We can hold out some hope that one of Ankiel or Fields or Getz or Pods might have a decent season, that one more reliever will turn out to be reliable, and that Avilés could come back. That would give us eleven good players.

Leaving us with fourteen bad players, including several of the very worst in the majors.

Ouch.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on Jan 30, 2010 7:10 AM EST reply actions

not entirely true...

Aviles, Rosa, Farnsworth, Davies and Hooch and Tejeda (out of the pen or starting), and Cruz all have a good shot of being average or above. Others have outside chances like Getz, Fields, and Ankiel. So Its not hopeless, the Royals could compete for the division, it’s just very unlikely that enough of these players will step up enough to give us a chance.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jan 30, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions