Royal Position Players With Upside for 2010
The Royals have never quite been a young team under Dayton Moore, and may never be. That's a discussion for another day, however. Despite a rebuild still stuck in second gear, the Royals do have a handful of position players with upside or breakout potential for 2010.
1B/DH - Billy Butler: Butler raised his game offensively last season, posting a career best .301/.362/.492 line. Butler will be just 24 next season and has been viewed as one of the best young hitters in the game for years. Although Butler's defense was seen as being better than expected in '09, in reality he was still pretty bad. With some extended playing time at first under his belt for the first time, he might be headed towards his defensive prime where he's still bad but not killing you. The standards are high for no-defense/no-baserunning 1Bs in the AL, which is in part why Butler posted just a 2.4 WAR in '09. Still, if ever there was a guy who appeared to be on his way to an elite prime as a pure hitter, it's Butler.
3B - Alex Gordon: Gordon's early seasons actually look better than Butler's first two did, and like Butler,he may have already broken out, but for a variety of reasons he's a partisan figure amongst Royals fans these days. Here's how I look at Gordon's career 2007: disappointing, 2008: promising, 2009: hurt. Heading into his age 26 season, Gordon has hit .250/.331/.415 in 1360 PAs. For what it's worth, 600 of those PAs are from his rookie year, when the Royals seemingly played him out of spite. It's a bit of an old-school 3B's line overall, and that may be the type of hitter than Gordon becomes. He may not be the next Brett, but he might be the next Robin Ventura, Howard Johnson or Tim Wallach.
C - Brayan Pena: Say this about the Royals: they'll always leave you guessing. The Royals declined to bring back both John Buck and Miguel Olivo, seemingly handing a bulk of playing time to Brayan Pena, who hit well in limited duty in 2009. And Pena was even a former Brave, so we got to have a million cheap jokes about him, during the protacted process of bringing him in. Then the Royals brought in Jason Kendall. For two years. As in two years, or two years, if you want to look at it that way. Brayan got 183 PAs last season, and the target for 2010 is presumably somewhere around 300.
2B - Chris Getz: You can find people who like his game. He's hitting a nice age for 2010, 26, and that's mainly why he's here. He only hit .261/.324/.347 in pretty regular duty last year, but he's a second baseman, which helps. And Getz hit well at AAA in 2008.
CF - Brian Anderson: And now we're into the questionable zone. Anderson is heading into his age-28 season and approximately his 4th chance to win a Major League job. It wouldn't have been crazy to envision a career year at the plate and good defense for Anderson in 2010. Well, that was then. After the Royals brought in Scot Podsednik and Rick Ankiel, it's hard to imagine Anderson getting much playing time at the Major League level. Just a weird acquisition all around, as he went from being an underwhelming but sorta-interesting-option-if-you-look-hard-enough to just being superfluous and puzzling in about a month. Is a former White Sox however.
3B - Josh Fields: Classify this as the most theoretical of upsides. The Royals won't be the last organization to give Fields a shot. He was famous entering baseball because of his QB days at Boone Pickens State, and he hit 23 homers for the White Sox in his first full season. He'll be 27 next year, and if you look past the fact that he was absolutely terrible in 2009. I have no idea what the Royals are really thinking with Fields, is he just a body or do they really want to find a place for his bat? But hey: I've only written about this team every day for five years and read everything that gets written about them. All in all, Fields is more likely to have a good 2010 than is Yuni Betancourt, so he makes the list.
CF - Mitch Maier: Not noticeably different from the three guys listed above, except he's the Devil the Royals know with a Baird pedigree, not someone they feel like they've snagged from some other organization as a sign of how smart they are. Maier didn't fall on his face at the plate in 2009, and there's evidence that he'd be average to alright at a premium defensive position. It doesn't matter, it'll take a trade and two injuries for him to play much now.
OF - Rick Ankiel: Ankiel has had a weird career, so many are willing to consider his age (30) not all that it might seem. And even if wasn't a pure 30, 30 isn't 33. On the other hand, his weird career also suggests a hypothesis that the scouting report is now out on him and he's an outs and bad swings machine. His rate numbers have declined from the moment he started hitting as a Cardinal in 2007... Still weird career + injuries + maybe he just needed a change of scenery (nobody burns guys out faster than Tony LaRussa) + he's an incredible athlete and you can at least imagine a good 2010. It wouldn't stun me.
That seems to be about it. And for a team in year five of a new GM's rebuild, it's not an impressive haul. Butler and Gordon have elite upsides. Upsides in the down-ballot MVP candidate range. And the rest of the list, aside from Ankiel who is something of a true wildcard, have upsides around the "good player, gave us 2.0 WAR out of nowhere" range.
What does surprise me is that the roster does have a number of players heading into an interesting age range, only too many of them are blocked or mostly blocked by useless veterans like Guillen, Bloomquist, Podsednik or Kendall. And that's a big part of why the 2010 Royals just don't seem that interesting.
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148 comments
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Comments
although wasn't ventura awesome defensively?
as I now question my own suggestion
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
And isn't Gordon much better on the basepaths?
Okay, this comparison isn’t working out when you look at the whole player.
But offensively, they’re kinda similar. From 1993-1997, Ventura hit .279/.375/.475. I could see that from Gordon.
I could see Gordon
Getting his ass kicked by Nolan Ryan.
by Dadunca on Jan 31, 2010 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Saw that on TV
live as it was happening. Will never, ever forget it. My favorite baseball “brawl” moment ever!
yeah, Gordon has a chance at Ventura offensively
and while I think Alex can stick and be decent at 3B, Ventura had a HoF-worthy glove
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
quote
Fields is more likely to have a good 2010 than is Yuni Betancourt, so he makes the list.
setting the bar pretty low, eh Will?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Is There Even
A bar there?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
There's A Good
Chance he’d play better drunk.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
Or he could drive drunk
or piss in public and get himself released by Dayton.
(Hopefully without maiming or killing anyone except, perhaps, Kyle Farnsworth.)
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
The Royals are one of the few teams in baseball
whose fans root for most of their players to get injured.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
At least we have a new trainer now
Thanks, Rany!
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
How About A
Drunken pissing match/sword fight between Yu-Bet and Tatersworth at the Plaza on Saturday night?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Fields is kind of interesting
Plus power obviously. Some ability to work the count and take a walk. Contact will always be an issue, but even modest improvement could turn him into a productive bat.
by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2010 7:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
How Does He
Crack the lineup, or even see 250 PA’s?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
That Would Be
The smart move, so no, probably not.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
DL>DH
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 2, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
DFA>DL>DH
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 2, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
No Argument Here
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 2, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
that would require running
Baseball's that swingy stick game, right?
by royalsroyalsroyals on Feb 1, 2010 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
Not For Hoagy!
Didn’t he injure himself tying his shoelace?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
not much at first
Platoon with Gordon at first. Neither Guillen nor Pods will last as starters.
by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2010 7:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Do you think they're smart enough to cut bait on Pods even if he's bombing?
Keep in mind the 1.5 years of TPJ (granted, great defense the first year)
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
I came out of the Teahen trade thinking that sorta the Royals really wanted Fields around
I have no idea though
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
when you have a chance to sign a stud like Rick Ankiel, you take it
I mean, he DID have a good 650 PA run over 2007-2008, and you can throw 2009 out due to injuries. YOu know, like how Jose Guillen’s 2006 obvious had now predictive value for 2008.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Just like when you have a chance to obtain a stud like Yuniesly Betancourt, you take it.
Deja moo, which is that awareness that you’ve experienced that BS before.
by Steve Nelson on Jan 31, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure GMDM has learned his lesson
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
is the Gordon thing a joke or for reals?
are they really going to platoon him?
I like the Fields pickup, but he’s as bad or worse than Teahen at third statistically, and he looks worse, too
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
when has this administration cared about defense at the corners?
Dayton and company would have no problem starting Fields once a week at 3B. Should he? No. Will he? I think so. He should be starting in LF or RF.
didn't mean to go after you
I’m just a bit worked up
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
no problem
I think I’m probably past the point with these guys to get worked up anymore. Dayton could sign Jerry Koosman tomorrow, and my repsonse would be “sounds about right.”
Just in case you did not see it, the A’s agreed to terms with the A’s for $750K. Another outfielder is just what Oakland needs, but value is value I guess, and Beane could probably flip Travis Buck for a decent prospect.
yeah, I'm just about to rant about that below
Another left-handed OF? what are they doing?
The truth is, my little Monte Carlo spreadsheet has the As winning the West, but they really need to ease up.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
The Ms really need to add another pitcher
yes, their offense looks pretty bad, but I’m not sure they can get their money’s worth given the upgrade options on the market — Josh Willingham’s defense gives up most of his advantage over Langerhans.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
I bet the M's sign one of the injured or old pitchers (Wang, Bedard, or Smoltz)
If none of those work, I would not be surprised if they brought back Washburn either, even though he is not much of an upgrade over their other 5th starter candidates like Vargas, Petit, or French. Of course, this means they will pull off a deal for Francisco Liriano, who then becomes the third member of that staff to make the All-Star game.
As much as I'm taken with Jack "Rock Star" Z. like every other nerd
I would love to see the As win the West for Billy Beane and his eight Endys+Dunn(Cust), with Beane flipping dual birds to the critics.
(Did you notice that I borrowed your “eight Endy Chavezes and Jack Cust” line from last year in one of my recent posts? I mean, I know you check your RSS reader every five minutes on MWF…)
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
me too
and this might be the year it happens
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
don't do it on the basis of my thing
I’m not sure I’m using it correctly, but PECOTA likes them
I have their defense and Seattle’s pretty much deadlocked overall. SEA has the better rotation, but not as much as you’d thing. I only have Sheets at 110 IP in my CHONE-based projection (I use Jeff Z’s UZR projections for defense). I know that sounds weird given Lee and King Felix, and a lot of it depends on playing time, but Anderson and Outman et. al. are much better than Snell, Rowland0Smith, etc. We’ll see.
The As bullpen is slightly superior, too, as is their hitting (CHONE has Jack Cust as the best hitter in the AL West!).
I wouldn’t bet anything on the AL West. repeating myself for the nth time— no order of finish would surprise me.
As for offense, the As are better
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Is Outman going to pitch before the second half?
Didn’t he have TJ surgery?
The one thing about the A’s is that they have so many players with short MLB track records, their projections are going to be a bit more volatile.
crap
I really have a hard time keeping up with pitchers… Time to redo the spreadsheet.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
okay, redid my "odds"
with Dana Freaking Eveland in place of Outman, and the As still win most of the time, but just barely
Avg. projected records (with a tablespoon of salt, please):
OAK 83-79
TEX 82-80
SEA 82-80
LAA 78-84
Yikes…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
i won't believe the angels are dead until I see it
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
I hear you
that’sn ot “dead” it’s more like a dead heat between all four teams.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Cy Young winner Rich Harden
and Justin Smoak’s 3.0 WAR 2nd half lead the Rangers to a narrow win.
by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2010 11:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I did not know that
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
On a side note:
How come I fully understand how to utilize Monte Carlo simulations yet I can’t get a freakin’ job to save my life?
Probably the same reason I gave up a long time ago
There’s always someone with a better connection that will get the job even if you are more qualified or would be better for them long term. I came to realize that my fruitless search just confirmed why I didn’t really want to work in the corporate world anyways, though the money would be nice.
I was interviewing for an actuarial position with a consulting firm once, and everyone there loved me. I went there for an interview and ended up getting shown around and introduced to everyone, ate lunch with the staff, spent about an extra 3 hours more there than had been anticipated and everything seemed great, they basically did everything but offer me the job on the spot. The guy vacating the position had a buddy at another consulting firm who was interested in the job and it ended up going to him. They called me about 6 months later to see if I was still looking for a job because he hadn’t worked out. I had already taken a job teaching high school math and coaching the freshmen baseball team. It was a good thing my wife took the call because I don’t think I could have contained my anger.
I don't really know how to use them
ironic, isn’t it?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
the A’s agreed to terms with the A’s for $750K
Huh?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
the masterplan is to destroy gordon's value
lets just move him to first as a part time player now
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
DFA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111
Fields has earned the chance, and Gordon needs a change of scenery
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
That Would Upset
Me mightily. The only place I want to see Fan Man on the field in LF, possibly RF. As in:
DDJ LF
Callaspo DH
Butler 1B
A-Gor 3B
Aviles SS
Ankiel CF
Fields RF
Getz 2B
Kendall C
Bench; Pena, Bloomers, Betancourt, Maier
DL: Hoagy, Poddy, Farnsworth
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
Thoughts whlie procrastinating on a Contract Retrospective (tomorrow at 4 pm at Fangraphs! Feel the excitement!)
Butler: While the Royals should be playing him at first most of the time for lack of better options and because they aren’t exactly risking a playoff, the statistical hopes for his defense took a hit last season and he is probably best suited to DH long-term. Having said that, without looking right at the numbers again when I think of Butler I’ve often thought he might become as a right-handed-hitting Travis Hafner (the good version: big DH type who looks like a three true outcomes guy, but actually hits for average, and somehow, although a lack of speed, maintains a decent BABIP despite hitting a lot of grounders. Even if Butler never reaches the heights of Hafner’s 2005 and 2006 (and the Miguel Cabrera comparisons are premature), I still think he’s likely to become at least a very good (albeit quite overrated) “run producing” 3-4 WAR1B/DH a la Justin Morneau (if with a different battted ball profile).
Gordon: I’m still high on him for some reason, but Pass.
Brayan Pena: What is there to say? An underrated pickup by Moore at the time, and now that Olivo and Buck are gone along with an obvious rebuilding time… well, straight up, playing Kendall over Pena hurts the team’s immediate chances as much as the Ankiel-in-CF idea.
Getz: Not as good as Callaspo overall as a player, but if the team is intent on getting rid of Bert, not a bad choice to hold over 2B and see what he’s got to offer. It’s not crazy to see im becoming a league-average player overall.
Brian Anderson: He probably sucks, but he never really got a chance in Chicago, either. Probably worse than Pods overall, and at 28, he’s not really young (unless you’re Dayton Moore). Supposedly has good tools… If only the Royals had a better option in center field. Oh, yeah. 4th OF at best.
Josh Fields: Not a 3B. Still, if he’s a former QB, I don’t see why he isn’t being tried in RF, or LF. CHONE actually sees him as almost a win better as Ankiel with the bat (more later). What Gopherballs said above. Might end up being sort of right-handed Jack Cust. A 1B/DH platoon with Kila (and Fields could also be a Teahen-esque 4 corners utility guy) alongside full-timer Butler would be a good idea. Thus, it will never happen.
MITCH: RR said it well on Twitter — only Dayton Moore could turn Mitch Freaking Maier into a Conan-esque martyr. Seriously, even if you don’t buy him being equal or better than Ankiel, at worst he’s Pods’ equal, and so why not play the younger, cheaper guy? Moreover, I do think he’s better. Even if his bat is a few runs worse, I’d bet he’s 10 runs better with the glove. Pods is an average LF defensively; MITCH is about an average CF… I’ve beaten this into the ground, though, so whatever.
[Gets pretty negative now… you might want to skip this]
Ankiel: Again, the more I think about this signing, the less its “averageness” satisfies me. Yes, Moore managed to pay about market price. But if we accept that teams on the high side of the win curve should be willing to go above market, should logic tell us that teams like the Royals should to the opposite? Moreover, I love the “sure, he projects as a 1 WAR player, but he’s got upside!” Um, yes, but that’s the thing about a 50th percentile projection… for all the “upside potential” (an idiotic ex-jock announcer-ism), there’s just as much “suck potential.” He might bust a 2 WAR season, but he’s got just as much a chance of being replacement level. As I’ve written before, you can’t use injuries as an excuse to dismiss one season’s and then pretend it won’t effect him the next. He’s never played more than about 120 games in one season in the major leagues. And really, he’s only got about one full season (if you add in the 190 PAs of 2007 to 2008) of actually being good, and most recently, he’s sucked. I mean, if he was healthy enough to play ~120 games in 2009, how bad was the injury effecting him. Some, probably, yes. But how much of it was his Olivo-esque strike zone judgment? I mean, he’s healthy enough to play 120 games, but we’re supposed to pretend like a guys who had a lower 2009 wOBA than Willie Freaking Bloomquist has upside at 30? Oh, and he sucks in CF. The hilarious assertion by the Royals that Pods LF, Ankiel CF, DDJ RF is the "best defensive outfield in the division) is hilarious. Sure, it might be better than Detroit if they idiotically play Guillen and Ordonez on the corners and ignore the superior Raburn, but Jim Leyland isn’t Trey Hillman. And sure, it’s probably better than Moore’s heroes in Minnesota, who are starting DHs on the corners… and maybe if Carlos Quentin gets hurt… did Grady Sizemore get traded when I wasn’t looking? I could go on, but whatever… Ankiel’s a 1 WAR player. All things considered, I’d say he has a about a 5% chance of staying healthy and performing well enough to be a 3.1 WAR player… then, of course, with that Emil Brown in 2006 performance in hand, he’ll bolt for the Mets.
Sorry… wanted to be more positive to round things out…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:33 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I forgot to add
something important, as I got going too much. This is more positive about Ankiel: while CHONE has never liked Ankiel all that much as a hitter, PECOTA does see Ankiel as as .344 wOBA guy this season. That’s enough to make him about average as a corner OF with average defense. So there is that possibility — I have my doubts, but PECOTA did pick up on Branyan’s explosion prior to last season, so that’s good news.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Ozzie Guillen is the new TLR
he gets strong opinions about guys and many times it is counterproductive
as I remember it, he basically hated Anderson and Fields for whatever reasons, and the white sox seem to have punted on Gtez quickly as well
so maybe there is something with one or two of them
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
At age 28, he's one year away from one of his Mooreian primes.
Probably worse than Pods overall, and at 28, he’s not really young (unless you’re Dayton Moore).
by Steve Nelson on Jan 31, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Er
Is Butler probably due for some regression to the mean this season? Not dissing on his upside, but this could be a year when his overall offensive production slips a smidge. The scary part of that thought is imagining Dayton using it as a reason to deal him for, I dunno, Wily Mo Pena or Jose Molina or some such.
Murphy was an optimist.
by The Ol' Perfesser on Jan 31, 2010 8:44 PM EST reply actions
a bit
but he’s really young, too, and has been young, so the aging adjustment also helps
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
that wouldn't stun me either
I’m not sure butler is gonna hit .300 all that often, but I guess pujols is doing it
by Will McDonald on Jan 31, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Batting average will always fluctuate
(as will OBP and SLG to the extent BA is a component). The contact skills and walk rate should be stable. Power should improve, but speed will only get worse.
by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
one more thing
Rick Ankiel — 1 WAR player, $3.25M guaranteed
Gabe Gross 2 WAR player, $750K guaranteed
Ryan Church, 1.5-2 WAR player, $1.5M guaranteed
Ryan Langerhans, 1.5 WAR player (low), $525K guaranteed (if in the majors, he’s on a split deal)
Gross + Church + Langerhans salary = $3M guaranteed. So, for less than the price of Rick Ankiel, the Royals could have had three superior players who would make up an outfield that’s as good or better than Pods (0.5 WAR) DDJ (2.5 WAR) and Ankiel (1.0 WAR).
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he was a good pickup
i’d take that signing 500 times out of 500 over the other three listed.
baseball rules.
interesting
why?
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
heh
That’ll be true until Microsoft buys the naming rights to a stadium/field, and names it Excel Spreadsheet Field at Microsoft Stadium.
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 1, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If I was a game designer for one of the MLB video games
I’d make a secret field that was made out of a giant Excel spreadsheet.
I don't think you mind my nit-picking
But Gross was heavily platooned in Tampa Bay… just saying
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
And he would still be better
than everyone in the Royals’ current outfield (or potential OF bench), with the exception of DeJesus.
Did you like your little taste of the Hell of Being a Royals Fan?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 2, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, they had someone to platoon him with
but still, another great thing bout WAR is that is accounts for the playing time discrepancy. Let’s compare:L
Gross:
2008: 2.4 WAR
2009: 0.8 WAR
Rick Ankiel:
2008: 2.0
2009: 0.1
And that doesn’t account Gross facing far superior pitching…
But hey, who am I to doubt Dayton and his expert scouts! I mean, as good as this team has been, I can’t believe how snarky and mean we’re being!
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just saying that I don't think Gross's TTL is 2 WAR
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
maybe not
he’s still a better player than Ankiel
and is getting paid a fraction of the money
he’s the same age, and yet we don’t talk about Gross’s “upside”
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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 2, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Just out of curiosity
Can we drop the “Butler is a butcher with the glove” meme? Yes he ranked last in like every statistical evaluation, but in this case its a lot like saying that 1 nanometer is shorter than 5 nanometers. Sure its true, but does it really matter?
Just looking at the raw numbers Butler was worth about -7 Runs last year. The leader at 1B, Kendry Morales, was worth… 5 Runs. Little more than a Win difference. And Butler was within 5 Runs of 10 other first basemen.
That’s TINY compared to positions like 3B (30 Run difference), SS (30 Run difference) and CF (40 Run difference).
Now I’m not completely up to snuff, but I know the defensive numbers are not 100% accurate, so its even possible that the gap between Butler and other 1B’s is even smaller.
In non-Butler related stuff, I’d have to say Aviles, if he gets meaningful playtime, is probably going to be the breakout player.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
there's something to that about Butler
of course, a 10 run gap is abpout the difference betweeen a .370 wOBA hitter and .390 wOBA hitter over a full season, so it’s not nothing… that difference costs ~$3.5M on the FA market.
As for projections, also keep in mind that this is consonant with what scouts have been saying for a long time about Butler.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but I don't think its worth all the flak we give him.
And besides, he’s still young, he should come into his defensive prime over the next year or two.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
I don't think we give him that much flack
compared to the organzation and the scouts, we’re just trying to be realistic. I do think they don’t have any better options but to keep him as the primary 1B at this point. And it’s also worth noting that most of his problems according to UZR weren’t “concentration” issues with errors (-1.9 runs), but with Range (-4.9). So it’s a raw athletic ability thing more than a “learning the position thing.” I don’t think the problem is that Butler doesn’t try or whatever, he’s just plain not cut out for it…
But dude can hit…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 31, 2010 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Really we don't have better options then a -.7 WAR Billy at 1B?
mmm, let me think, is there any player the Royals have that does not have a position that would be average or better at first base? Then the Royals DH option (Guillen Who I will value at replacement level which is too high) could be changed to Butler who would be a 2.5 WAR player or so there. So there is a pickup of 2.5 WAR so we would need to have a first baseman that would project to at least a 0 WAR player that we have at DH in Guillen. Oh, I know, we could play Fields, Callaspo, or Kila at first base instead and improve the team by dropping Guillen. Oh, and have an extra roster spot.
If the Royals were smart and dropped Guillen, then we would have Callaspo at DH (1 WAR) or we could play Callaspo at first base, (most likely better then -.7 WAR) and the difference would be added value for the Royals.
No, we don't have any choice but to play Butler at first.
Go Royals!
Kila is just as bad or worse with the glove at 1B as Billy
And his bat is substantially less. Billy is a better option at 1B. Kila deserves a shot at DH, but I think that ship sailed long ago.
A win is pretty significant
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Not for the Royals it isn't
Unless it’s the difference between 99 and 100 losses.
That distinction is so important!
Truthfully, Yuni should be first on the list
He is horrible, but he should regress upward to not as horrible.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jan 31, 2010 9:28 PM EST reply actions
Look Out For
The “dead cat splat”; Yu-Bet is an excellent candidate.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
But don't the Royals have the fiery Guillen in the clubhouse ...
… to kick Yuni’s butt and set him straight when Yuni jakes??
Isn’t that what Guillen does? Or maybe the Royals should bring back Sweeney to be a clubhouse presence? Hey, it worked for the Mariners last season!!! And it’s non-quantifiable! Why, you might even say it’s Daytonian!!!!
by Steve Nelson on Jan 31, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Reply Fail
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Guillén and Ankiel
can teach the rest of the guys how to use PEDs, thereby doubling their WAR. Ankiel can get prescriptions for HGH from a horse doctor or a retired dentist or wherever he got the last batch.
Just imagine Zack on roids. His ERA would be like 0.46.
Which Royals player do you think would benefit most from taking PEDs? I think it’d probably be Butler, whose home run numbers would jump, and Gordon, who’d finally be able to stay healthy for a whole season and possibly break out. Some of Callaspo’s doubles might be turned into home runs.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Just imagine Zack on roids. His ERA would be like 0.46.
Or he might mow like the wind.
stay healthy for a whole season and possibly break out
That would be DDJ and his hives.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
We need to find a replacement level player at SS to replace him.
We actually are short of short stops right now, so we would have to get another one if we dropped him.
Go Royals!
That's not a reason to hold back ...
If the Royals dropped Yuni in favor of a replacement level SS wouldn’t that actually be an improvement?
Is TPJJ Available?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Intangibles are all that matter at Daytona

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 31, 2010 11:17 PM EST reply actions
Seems like Callaspo should be on the list, too
Of course, he’s been marginalized. (And there’s a good chance he peaked in 2009, so there wouldn’t be much upside left, right?)
We May Never
Find out.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
I sure hope
you all are right about Getz and Fields becoming reasonably good players.
What are the chances of Avilés being able to come back next year?
Guys who have absolutely no upside whatever: Podsednik, Kendall, Guillén, Betancourt, Bloomquist, Anderson, Farnsworth. That’s nearly one-third of the team who are either has-beens or never-wases.
Any information about who’s going to be in the bullpen besides Black Jack, Cruz, Farnsy, and the loser(s) of the Texas death match between Tejeda, Hochevar, and Davies for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs?
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
I'm guessing Rosa gets in
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
i have no idea on Aviles
I think his injury situation is pretty serious, and now there’s no place for him on the roster, now that we have our building block at SS
by Will McDonald on Feb 1, 2010 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, there is a roster crunch coming
Assuming a 12-man pitching staff, that leaves 13 spots for position players. I would also assume that Aviles starts the year on the DL.
Starters:
C Kendall
1B Butler
2B Callaspo
3B Gordon
SS Betancourt
LF Podsednik
CF Ankiel
RF DeJesus
DH Guillen
Bench:
C Pena
IF/OF Bloomquist
3B/OF Fields
That leaves Getz (who has an option left and would take Callaspo’s spot if traded), Anderson (who also may have an option left), and Maier fighting for one last spot.
Under this scenario, I see Dayton keeping Anderson as a right-handed backup outfielder to complement the three left-handed starters and trading Maier to the Padres for a player to be named later.
Makes sense to me
Unfortunately.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
nice touch
trading Maier to the Padres for a player to be named later
by Will McDonald on Feb 1, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Boone Pickens State?
Which state? Are they accredited? Do they have a competitive coon-hunting team? Is their nickname the Aggies? Wasn’t Boone Pickens the bomber pilot in Dr. Strangelove?
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
the nickname is the cowboys
if that helps put the reference together. maybe you already had, considering their NCAA-record 24 Coonskin National Championships.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 1, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
God, I Hope
You probably heard a few years ago that T. Boone Pickens, who chairs the hedge fund BP Capital Management, gave Oklahoma State a $165 million donation to be used all for helping the school’s athletic program. And the largest portion of it was going to be used to beef up the school’s football stadium and football facilities.
Officials were told that actually, the entire $ 165 million donation, and the earnings, which once inflated the gift to over $300 million, had recently been eliminated by margin calls due to drastically falling oil prices.
As of Monday OSU’s gift had flat-lined completely and was declared ‘gone.’
He should bail them out.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
here's some corroboration
this part is very ouchy
Those funds, along with $37 million from other donors, were invested in BP Capital Management, a hedge fund controlled by Pickens. At the time, it looked like a windfall that would keep on giving. Instead, Pickens recently acknowledged that his investments had lost $1 billion this year amid the financial crisis.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/21/sports/21boosters.html?_r=1&em
http://blogs.suntimes.com/sportsprose/2008/10/whats_the_deal_with_t_boone_pi.html
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 1, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
He's laughing all the way to the bank.
He gave away all the money and avoided paying taxes on those unrealized gains. Instead he got to deduct those gains as donations, and the school ends up with nothing because the investment tanked.
Notice He Talked
Them into letting it ride and not taking the profit at the peak. T-Bone has no insider information at all………..really.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
So how many players are we hoping get injured?
My list goes like this:
Guillen
Farnsworth
Kendall
Yuni
Pods
Am I missing anyone?
hmmm...
Ankiel might be on that list by mid april
by Will McDonald on Feb 1, 2010 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure who has to get injured for Kila to have a spot...
but it’d probably take a DDJ trade/injury.
The entire team plane...
would have to fly into a black hole (or crash and the survivors end up on the Lost island).
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 1, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Shouldn't the question be
“How many players are we hoping don’t get injured?”
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Sporqie?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Injury preference list:
1) Guillen (ensures Hillman doesn’t cave and use him in RF too often)
2) Yuni (ensures Aviles gets the job he never should have lost in the first place)
3) Kendall (ensures Brayan gets the 350+ PA he deserves)
To me, those are the big 3. Any injuries past that are simply bonuses.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Technically, Getz would help since blocking a superior player from playing.
I’m not sure what the Royals bullpen and rotation is going to be yet, have to get back to you on those.
Go Royals!
willie taveras DFAed
3… 2… 1…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2010 2:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions
lucky for him
can be the 4th OFer for TB, SEA, or OAK
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 1, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
maybe not OAK
forgot they have, like, 6 good OFers already. how about Marlins?
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 1, 2010 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
And Ryan Garko to the M's for less than $1 million
Even at only +8 batting runs, CHONE projects that he would have been the Royals’ third best hitter
if you wanna crown 'em...
helluva year, but I can’t go all the way to best run yet
by Will McDonald on Feb 1, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Did Tampa Bay get contracted?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2010 4:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Gordo
Please don’t insult Robin Ventura with this major league imitator. Please trade him now before it is too late. He is spoiled goods. Ask the scouts.
The Royal Sox
To tell you all the truth I have not really been following the Royals off season moves too closely. After reading this story I realized that the Royals have too gave into the managements thinking of acquisitions. Much like the Chicago, Kansas City seems to have a lot of the not wanted garbage players from the other city. I know that Williams (sox GM) took a lot of chances on pitchers especially from the Royals. Now it seems like KC is starting to take the left over position players. I just wonder why some of these guys keep getting chances. OH, I am sorry Getz, this does not pertain to you good luck in ’10.
I'm sure Callaspo rolled out the red carpet for him
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 2, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Is Gordon a bust?
I was happy to find this article. I think Gordon might have quite a bit of upside. He may never be the player he was projected to be, but the Royals (as they have shown) could have done much worse. I also wrote about Gordon’s possible future in my blog. Read it if you must:
http://www.realdirtyblue.blogspot.com






















