State of BP
Sheehan is leaving for... (doesn't say) Cot's contracts is coming to BP, more CK (I think).
Thoughts?
over 2 years ago
Freneau
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Adding Wyers and Carleton along with Seidman
is the biggest coup for BP. Along with some others, these are the first sabermetricians hired by BP (I might be forgetting someone) since Dan Fox. Seriously good thing all around.
Not sure if it’s connected in any way, and I don’t mean this disrespectfully, but this coinciding with the departure of Sheehan (and Kahrl’s confusing “reassignment”) seems to indicate a real return to cutting-edge sabermetrics. Colin’s also adding a PBP defensive metric.
In other words, BP finally figured out that rather than ignoring their critics, they should just hire them…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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Wait, MORE CK?
Tommy Bennett is also awesome… big loss for BtBS… but by adding him, why would they possibly need more Christina Kahrl? Why, it seems like just yesterday Colin was showing how she was full of sh-t with her ignorant statements about wOBA/EqA.
Oh well, at least they won’t put themselves int he situation of having to have a guy like Steve Goldman trying to defend a crazy projection. Now that actually have people who know about this stuff.
I suggested to Sky Kalkman many months ago that they should simply hire all the StatsSpeak guys… I guess they intercepted the email.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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it seems like she's still doing TA
and is now an editor or something
I like that they’re expanding, but Sheehan leaving/being forced out is weird
Perhaps it's about money/power/direction
Sheehan’s a big name, and a decent writer, but what does he really add to BP? Seriously, in my not-so-humble opinion, the new saber-guys + Tommy Bennett pretty much make both Sheehan and Kahrl redundant at best. We all make mistakes and stuff we wish we could take back, Kahrl’s transaction analysis regularly contain embarrassing statements — this isn’t 2002, hardcore fans know better, and frankly, do better work on their small blogs all the time.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 4, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
I've probably quoted Sheehan more than anyone else
he has a good grasp of the MSM meme or the moment, and has been a tireless critic of Selig’s endless foibles
I don’t read him to find out who the best reliever on the Orioles is. I don’t mind BP expanding to a big tent, which they kinda tried to do. It looks like they’re getting cheaper, yuonger, more hardcore
Sheehan's definitey superior to Kahrl
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 4, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
from the sound of things
didn’t you get the impression the Sheehan thing was about money?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 4, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
They should be rolling in $$$ with the ESPN deal.
Maybe it was something between subscription money and ESPN’s dough
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 5, 2010 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
We need a new kinda WAR here...
Like Writing above replacement.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
For BtB, it sucks losing Tommy. He is going to be doing a Neyer like blog for BPro
I wish I could get a cc on the Wyers and Kahrl discussions. Colin hates, I mean hates stuff done wrong statically and Kahrl could care less. It was a move BPro had to make.
It’s the second person I knew before they got picked up BPro (Tim K is the other).
Right now blog writers are following what little money is out there.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
Colin is the dude
who, maybe he didn’t do it first, but early on he ran the numbers and showed that 1) VORP’s run estimator (MLV) is wrong, and moreover 2) it conflict with EqA
he also showed how the Matt Wieters projection fro PECOTA was f—ed
he also showed how not just BaseRuns, but wOBA was superior to VORP and EqA as a run estimator in general,
he also specifically called bullshit on Kahrl’s claim that EqA was “testably” better than wOBA
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 5, 2010 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
My only problem with Colin is that he never says anything positive.
We went back at BtB 40-50 comments and there was nothing positive. He is definitely aiming to clear the last 5% of statical noise, but could be better at doing it.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 5, 2010 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I hope this means BP is going to take Sabermetrics seriously again
BP once had what KG referred to as “and leading-edge statistical work” but they haven’t really had that for a few years. PECOTA, FRAA, EqA, VORP and other signature BP metrics/projections have been surpassed by superior free-to-all alternatives. They have a lot of catching up to do.
The immoderate moderator
I can barely see the bleeding edge with these damn eyes..........
What metric/projections do you prefer to PECOTA for example? This is the fox guarding the henhouse, but I thought I read a story last year on BP that showed PECOTA faring better in predicting how they’ll fare than other competitors in 2008 (Chone comes to mind…..) As someone who admittedly has less of a grasp on the current state of sabermetrics than Brian Bannister, but likely more than Dayton Moore, I’d be grateful for suggestions as to where I can go to bolster my depression and despair at 95% of GMDMs moves over the coming season. Less Karhl is a good thing. Her writing tended to grate….. a little to plummy, a little too snarky. On a purely writing level, I enjoyed reading Sheehan. I think its hard to overestimate the impact BP has had on the game over the past decade, both for front offices and fans in general. They’ve lead most sentient beings out of the cave by the hand. Hopefully these personnel moves will reassert a better way of analyzing the game.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 5, 2010 7:31 AM EST reply actions
What metric/projections do you prefer to PECOTA for example?
CHONE and ZiPS both of which have performed better than PECOTA in recent years. Although PECOTA is still good.
As someone who admittedly has less of a grasp on the current state of sabermetrics than Brian Bannister, but likely more than Dayton Moore, I’d be grateful for suggestions as to where I can go to bolster my depression and despair at 95% of GMDMs moves over the coming season
This won’t lessen your despair, but some of my favorite sabermetric websites include Fangraphs.com, Hardballtimes.com and baseballanalysts.com.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 5, 2010 7:45 AM EST up reply actions
They're all pretty close
Statistically speaking, I guess. Tango probably put it best when he said “If any projection system can claim to be the best, it’s CHONE.” Of course, BP calls PECOTA “deadly accurate” in their marketing tools, at least in the past.
Some people have suggested that CHONE is best for hitters, PECOTA for pitchers, but that’s really splitting hairs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 5, 2010 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks.......
I don’t delve much beyond BP, the Star, Royals Review, Rany, and Baseball Think Factory, (maybe MLB trade rumors as the trade deadline approaches) and during the season, I try to catch Soren Petro’s show on 810. Sadly, sickly, like a dog eating its own vomit, I watch/listen to virtually every damn game with Denny/Ryan/Splitt’s gullet/Bob/Frank/Hammering Joel Goldberg/and other radio guy, etc…during the season. I can’t help it. BP is a daily visit for me. I’ve dabbled with Fangraphs and am familiar with Zips via Baseball Think Factory.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 5, 2010 9:19 PM EST reply actions
For fucks sake, I'm just red faced with embarrasment.......
A very cursory review of Fangraphs makes me realize that I’m the equivalent of a right wing tea bagger who thinks they know the angles because they watch Glen Beck. One article analyzing Max Scherzer on Fangraphs lays bare the comparative paucity of analysis in the typical BP stuff…..thanks for the patience and the suggestions again. To continue the inane political comparisons, I feel like a school girl who just got turned on to Noam Chomsky. I need to get thru that phase, and get to Bob Somersby, Dean Baker, and Lewis Lapham. If I can return the favor by suggesting websites on stomping porn sites, information related to Nick Cave, the poetry of Richard Hell, the English Premiere League, Wendell Berry, the films of Marta Meszaros, or the art of carpet installation, please let me know.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 5, 2010 9:53 PM EST reply actions
Yeah, at this point it's not even a competition between Fangraphs and BP.
These authors may change that and hopefully do. Are the blogs going to be behind the pay wall? I just have a hard time paying when there is so much out there for free.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
My only beef with Fangraphs is the seemed word limit/min they enforce
sometimes the authors just seem to be adding in useless data and other times the toughts just aren’t finished.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 6, 2010 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
















