Alberto Callaspo's Value
by castille on Jan 7, 2010 6:35 AM EST
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PrintTrade rumors involving Alberto Callaspo came to a head about a month ago, but I just now realized how bad these rumors were.
Callaspo's line was .300/.356/.457 last year, with an OPS+ of 114.
To Illustrate, I have compiled a list of Royal regulars last year that had an OPS+ of over 114.
1. Billy Butler, 124
***
Some were shocked or at the very least surprised at his production this year, yet in 2008 he hit .300 and his OBP was roughly the same as this year. His real improvement was hitting doubles and home runs, unsurprising considering his age.
Callaspo is 26, turning 27 in April. Over the course of his career, he has played 205 games at second base, thirty some at both shortstop and third base, and then 13 at the corner outfield positions.
Alberto's WAR was 2.8 last year, worth 12 million and change yet he was paid league minimum. For small market teams, there can be nothing more important that getting the maximum value out of players. Last year, Callaspo was the most efficient batter on the Royals roster.
Enter Chris Getz, Dayton Moore's "solution" for second base. He hit .261/.324/.347 last year with an OPS+ of 74. Getz is a few months younger and is generally considered better than Callaspo at second base. However, his fielding WAR last year was also negative. In fact, Getz only had a WAR of .3 last year.
On top of all this, Getz has a career UZR/150 at 2B of -6, less than Callaspo's, which is -2.4. Last year, Getz had an UZR/150 of -6.8, while Callaspo's was -7.5, but is 1.5 UZR/150 worth 2.5 WAR?
Full disclosure: I live in Iowa, where watching the MLB on TV is strictly prohibited. I haven't seen just how bad Callaspo is at second. However, the prevailing opinion on this board seems to be that he is a capable third baseman at the very least. With Gordon and Fields there, however, it makes little sense to move him to third base.
A while ago royalsreview did a wonderful article on how Billy Butler is actually a bad defensive first baseman. Alberto Callaspo could move to first base, allowing Butler to DH full time. Going into last year, Butler was the the best (read: better than Mike Jacobs) option at first base because Mike Jacobs is one of the worst defensive first baseman active in the MLB. In addition, many of us thought it would up his trade value down the line.
This year, Jacobs is gone, and Billy Butler is coming off a season in which he slugged .492. In my mind, that cements his value on this team. Consider the options beyond Billy Butler for the other every day 1B/DH Spot:
Josh Fields- .227/.301/.347, 68 OPS+ last year
Kila Ka'aihue .240/.353/.388 (CHONE for next year)
Jose Guillen- .242/.314/.367
Josh Fields is a few months older than Callaspo. Ka'aihue is less than a year younger than him. Guillen is going on 34 this season.
Alberto Callaspo could start at 1B, allowing Butler to DH every day. This combination is better than any other that is made up of players currently on the royals at hitting and Callaspo would almost assuredly be a defensive improvement over Butler.
Another place he could be useful is in right field. Again, I don't know exactly how up for it he is, but he has a bit of experience in the corner outfield positions and his bat will be the same in pretty much any position besides catcher.
Ultimately, his bat is most valuable at second base. Chris Getz is not much better by the numbers defensively, and Callaspo still has a year or two of improvement ahead of him. They are the same age, and it's easier to imagine Callaspo fielding like Getz than it is to imagine Getz hitting like Callaspo.
Alberto Callaspo is not a trading chip. He is a cheap, young player who gets on base and hits doubles and the Royals can certainly find a place to put him on defense. Personally, I would welcome seeing him every day at 2B, 3B, 1B, RF, or DH. He should not be traded for prospects; he is what we hope prospects will turn out being.
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Not sure what to do with Alberto
I like Callaspo a lot. However, CHONE projects him to be a below average 1.7 WAR player in 2010. If it were up to me, he’d be the starting second baseman. I don’t really mind that the Royals acquired Getz. It’s good that the Royals don’t have all of their second base eggs in one basket, so to speak. Depth is a good thing. We really don’t know how either player will pan out. Hopefully we’ll get one good (or even average) player out of the two of them.
One of the key reasons Callaspo shouldn’t be traded is that he doesn’t have a lot of trade value. He’s had one good major league season and that’s about it. No one is going to give up a top prospect for that.
I guess I like the idea of putting Callaspo at first base, but Hillman would never do it. Come to think of it, I don’t know if any MLB manager would do it. How often to MLB managers put middle IFers at first base? I’m sure there must be other examples, but all I can think of is Jose Offerman, and that’s been a while. It’s very rare. While MLB GM’s are increasingly embracing new ways of thinking, MLB managers are stuck in the 1960’s. First basemen are supposed to be tall, largely immobile power hitters. You don’t put a 5’9" second baseman who doesn’t hit many HR’s at first base. It just isn’t done (or so the traditional thinking goes).
The immoderate moderator
The key for the Offerman issue was that Boone felt like he had to play his bat.
As shocking as it is, I don’t think the Royals really respect Callaspo at all. Which is sad, because we only have three legitimate position players (4 in you count Gordon, who’s a huge question mark) and AC is one of them.
Graffanino and Aurillia both logged time at first, didn’t they?
Graffino had a handful of starts at first base. I guess I was thinking of making a middle IFer a full-time starter at first base. Aurilia had more starts at first, but was never a full-time starter at the position, and was really more of a third baseman by that point in his career.
I think these examples point out how rare such a move is. What is even more rare is moving a middle IFer to first base to unseat a good, traditional first baseman. In the rare instances in which a middle IFer has been used as a starting first baseman (even on a part-time basis), such as Offerman, Aurilia and Graffy, it has been because there was essentially a void at first base. The manager in question had no legitimate, traditional first baseman-type to play there (at least not one who was any good at all).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 7, 2010 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
One of the prime examples of an middle IF going to 1B is Rod Carew.
After that, there are a number of sluggers who played a middle IF spot at the time they were drafted, but were quickly moved to 1B once their pro career started. Jim Thome, for example, was a SS when drafted.
Jackie Robinson played 1 or 2 years at first
before permanently moving to 2nd.
(No, I’m not comparing Callaspo to Robinson, and I’m sure as HELL not comparing the Royals 2b logjam to one experienced by a good organization like the Brooklyn Dodgers of the 40’s and 50’s…)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
The Dodgers moved Robinson to second
to make room for Gil Hodges, and then they moved him to third to make room for Junior Gilliam, thereby improving the team both times.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Bob Boone would.
Remember when he played Offerman there?
I just wanted to say
I absolutely love your avatar castille, and I wish it were larger for all to enjoy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Agreed
And it looks like our author just took his maiden voyage with this post, as well.
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Jan 7, 2010 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
+1
And good lord, is that actually the Naturals mascot??? How many kids have gone home and had nightmares about that crazy, sadistic looking thing? Does he jump out from dark corners of the stadium to try to scare the kids into dropping their cotton candy and peeing their pants?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 7, 2010 12:36 PM EST up reply actions
marbotty's awesome analysis
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 7, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
In addition to the traditional-manager approach to the 1B position
preventing Callaspo from being moved there full-time, I think the other huge obstacle would be releasing Guillen. Unless you think that Dayton and Trey will really roll Jose out to RF on a moving dolly at the start of each game (God, I hope not). Otherwise, the Royals would be carrying both JoGui and Billy as (essentially) full-time DH’s. And then there’s the question of squeezing Fields and/or Kila onto the roster as well (Is Fields out of options or not? I’ve heard conflicting reports.).
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
I didn’t realize this until now, but Fields CHONE OPS prediction is .747. If that’s the case, that’s a 30 point increase in his OBP bringing him into an acceptable range for this year, way more acceptable than Guillen. Parraz will not start the season in Kansas City. Brian Anderson is worse offensively than Guillen.
It seems the best option would be to put Josh Fields in Right Field, assuming Callaspo doesn’t play there.
Pecota, watch over us.
What's His UZR/150
In RF? At his age it must be better than Hoagy’s. If it’s a choice between those two, hell yeah, put Fan Man out there.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Fields has not played RF in the majors
He has 180 innings in LF (-1.8 UZR), but that is too small of a sample size to mean anything (or mean as much as how he hit during a four game series).
nor h as he played any outfield at all in the minors, from what I can see
weird… you’d think they’d at least give him SOME time out there in CHA
I still say if he has the arm to play 3rd (if not the range), try him in RF… he’s seriously the only option on the roster at this point (other than Callaspo, I guess, if they insist on moving him off of 2B and think HE has the arm for 3B).
Side note: Fields DID play 4 games at SS in the minors… look out Yuni!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 7, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
Possibly The One
Way we could get worse defensively at SS.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
nah, Bulter at short would be worse.
Go Royals!
Probably not.
Figure that Butler’s bat will mean 5 WAR, and his fielding will mean -10 WAR, leaving you with -5 WAR. Yuni’s bat will mean -5 WAR, and his fielding will mean -2 WAR, leaving you with -7 WAR.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Callaspo to first base is a bad idea
The positional adjustment between 2B and 1B is huge — 15 runs. Even with Callaspo’s bad defense there (around minus 5 runs over a full season), the team is better off with him at 2B and finding someone who can hit as well or better than Callaspo to play 1B. For example, CHONE projects Callaspo as +3 runs as a hitter next year and Josh Fields as +1 run. To maximize value, the better configuration is to keep Callaspo at 2B and play Fields at 1B. Plus, there are still a dozen or so major and minor league free agent 1B/DH types out there who will not cost much yet still project offensively as good or better than Callaspo — Cust, Branyan, Garko, Tracy, Nady, Gomes, etc.
The only thing about the 15 runs...
If Alberto is a +7.5 defender there, then he has the same vaue, he might be that good there?
Go Royals!
I think you mean +10 runs at 1B (or +15 runs better than he was at 2B)
Callaspo at 2B projects as a 2.05 WAR player (or 20.5 runs above replacement) using CHONE: +3 batting runs +2.5 positional adjustment (2B) -5 defense +20 replacement = 20.5.
To be a 2.05 WAR player at 1B, Callaspo would need to be +10 runs defensively there: +3 batting runs -12.5 positional adjustment (1B) +10 defense +20 replacement = 20.5. But +10 runs at 1B would be +5 runs better than the best defensive 1B in baseball last year per UZR (Kendry Morales at +4.9 runs). And it is not like Callaspo’s only problem was making throws, so range and fielding balls cleanly would still be issues. That kind of improvement is just not realistic. Even if Callaspo was +5 runs at 1B, that is still leaving half a win on the table.
The other consideration is that anybody moving to 1B should get a bump on defense too. Fields is not very good at 3B, but should see a decent bump moving to 1B (just nothing like +15 runs better).
I Favor DH
With spot starts at 2B against LHPs with Hoagy or Fields, whoever is not in RF, DHing.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Only the Royals
Look, I don’t know what the solution is, and I agree with NYRoyal in that at the very least, trading for Getz certainly adds depth to the organization, but…
How can an organization so bereft of offensive talent formulate a plan that excludes it’s 2nd best offensive performer from the prior year from having a full-time role of some kind? It simply boggles the mind!
I know Teahen wasn’t all that valuable trade-wide, but why move him for (primarily) a secondbaseman, a position that was (on paper) stronger than most of the positions on the team? More importantly, if you really do like Getz enough to trade for him, fine – but you should have had a better plan for Callaspo AND/OR a better idea of Callaspo’s trade value BEFORE you make the Teahen deal.
In other words, you need an off-season PLAN (which sounds suspiciously like you need a PROCESS we can trust)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Jan 7, 2010 5:32 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Even the best laid plans...
Well at least we don’t have to worry about that with DM, Royals fans are happy if it’s just a move that does not look too bad in isolation.
Go Royals!
the Royals just need to accumulate value where they can find it
Fields is probably about as bad as Teahen at 3B, but projects to have a slightly better bat, is youjnger, and pre-arb. Straight up, that’s a good deal for the Royals/
Getz might have more upside — again, younger, pre-arb, decent glove, bad bat… Even if you have Getz and Fields slightly worse than Teahen (not unreasonable), either one is much cheaper and has more “upside” at this point.
The Royals aren’t at a point where they need to worry abou where these guys fit on the team. They just need value. There isn’t much here, but there’s more than with Teahen.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 7, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't going to go back to the Getz deal but ...
… as I mentioned previously 2nd base is an area of surplus this offseason. It’s a good time to make an upgrade, but make the best upgrade you can.
Moore does get some credit for turning Teahen into something with value. But there’s also the associated opportunity cost. Having acquired Getz, you’re not going to pay much attention to other options. So when Kelly Johnson is non-tendered you’re not in a position to act. So the Royals could have had Johnson, whom I believe would favor much more htan Getz. And that’s also neglecting the issue of where to put Callaspo if Getz plays.
A good GM doesn’t just make a deal because it makes an upgrade; he’s also got to assess whether this is the best option. In this case, it wouldn’t be hard to see that there were going to be a lot of options available if for adding value by bringing in a 2B. Moore selected one of the lesser options.
Here's the question...
Is there ANY way Guillen adds value to this team?
The only places you would consider playing him are RF and DH. Neither his bat nor his glove are good enough to carry the outfield position and it appears using him at DH keeps Callaspo out of the lineup.
What’s the best team the Royals could put on the field, based on the players they now have? Let me take a stab.
C- Kendall
1B- Butler
2B- Getz
3B- Gordon
SS- Betancourt (hopefully Aviles soon)
LF- DeJesus
CF- Maier
RF- Fields?
DH- Callaspo
Are their other combinations that project better?
Guillen has negative value everywhere
I think the optimum lineup by the CHONE projections is something like the following:
C Pena
1B Butler
2B Callaspo
3B Gordon
SS Aviles
LF DeJesus
CF Maier
RF Costa
DH Ka’aihue/Fields platoon (or maybe flip them with Butler at 1B).
This Would Be
A good year to give Shane his last shot at the bigs. Unfortunately, they’re not ready to cut their losses on Hoagy, so that won’t happen. Once Hoagy’s hammies pop he’ll DH, Fields will go to RF and Callaspo will be traded for a no hit C who can’t throw.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2010 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
Costa
Straight up, pound for pound, is a better player than Guillen. The problem is that he is already 28 and projects to be essentially the same batter as Fields this year (maybe a touch more power).
But you’re exactly right, it won’t happen. Us big Royals fans will probably remember him as someone who could’ve contributed quite a bit to this team for a number of years now but never got a real shot. It’s the same story with Ryan Shealy.
Pecota, watch over us.
It's As Sad
As “Old Yeller”.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 7, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
The difference between Costa and Fields is defense
Costa projects as a plus glove in a corner outfield, while Fields is unknown. CHONE has Costa as +4 runs (which is also about his career UZR in the majors in only relatively insignificant sample size of ~700 innings).
I don’t think anybody is really advocating for Costa to be the regular RF, just acknowledging that when limited to players currently in the organization, he projects as the most productive option for RF.
i'll advocate it
and i actually kind of like that lineup. while not that good, it seems sort of scrappy—at least fun to watch.
Well, um, actually a pretty nice little Saturday, we're going to go to Home Depot...buy some wallpaper, maybe get some flooring, stuff like that. Maybe Bed, Bath & Beyond, I don't know...I don't know if we'll have enough time.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 8, 2010 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Not Enough Mariners
Or cowbell. Seriously, Yu-Bet and Hoagy are millstones, and they will play.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 8, 2010 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
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