Will the Scouting Gurus Please Show Up?
Before jumping to larger concerns, let us get the basics of the Scott Podsednik signing out of the way. You guys have been all over this signing for two days, and there's not much for me to add, so I'll simply summarize.
- He'll be 34 next season and he's not very good. If he repeats last season, which is the best case scenario, when he hit .304/.353/.412, he'll be marginally non-terrible. Of course, the previous five years he hit a combined .260/.326/.356. But that was only when he was younger and in his athletic peak, so those 2288 plate appearances probably don't tell us much. As Simmons would say, when you have a chance to sign a guy who has two career years with a team, and that team still doesn't want him back, you have to do it.
- Not to be a jerk, but your weird uncle (or your GM, as it were) or someone is going to think he's great defensively, but there's solid evidence that he's pretty overrated afield. I think the best way to think about it, allowing for the usual defensive vagueness, is that he's not going to kill you defensively, but he's also not going to actually make you good either.
- Since we're talking about a Dayton Moore signing, we can say that the contract could have been worse: $1.75 million for one year, with a scary option for 2012. We're still just lighting money on fire here, but only about $1.2 million.
All in all, typical Dayton: older, more expensive, worse. We've seen this movie before.
But what utterly saddens me is this: why does it have to be this way? Why does Dayton make so many moves that look like they were dreamed up by a talk radio caller or (gasp) a blogger who isn't even trying hard? We've supposedly got a great scouting mind running this team... and the solution he comes up with is Scott Podsednik?
Are we sure we didn't hire Murray Chass or some other good "baseball man" who checked out of actually paying attention or following the game in detail decades ago?
At first I thought Dayton Moore was just a bad GM, now I'm worried if he's even trying.
Because when it comes to stopgap options who aren't very good, you don't have to pick a formerly famous person who was born in the 1970s. There aren't rules about these things.
Dayton Moore has J.J. Picollo on staff. He's supposed to be another great scouting mind. Dayton Moore has Mike Arbuckle on staff, he's also supposedly a great scout. Supposedly, we've got everything in place to build the kind of low-cost roster that can win here. Supposedly, nobody knows more about 15-19 year old baseball players than these guys. Supposedly, they can spot tools from space. Supposedly, they were all great great hires.
And we're left holding the Podsednik.
Centerfield is the centerfold for the tools hounds, but nobody had a better idea than Scotty Pods? Nobody knew of Player X, who was 23 and a minor league free agent? Nobody knew of Player Y, who could be snagged in the Rule 5? Nobody suggested Player Z, who could be had for whatever pitching prospect we had who smoked weed last summer?
I'm not going to jump up and down over Scotty Pods. Lame signing, but he's just a guy. He'll say all the right things and score from first once or twice and we'll all love it. Whatever.
No, what really upsets me is that we have another opportunity to learn that our front office continues to be built more on "supposedlys" than a track record of success.
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Will, I hope to have answers for you Monday
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/1/8/1241797/royals-sign-scott-posednik
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
More has 1/4 of a pretty good front office
First, there’s the statistical analysis half of a front office. He has eschewed that half. Second, there’s the scouting half of a front office. On the pitching side, I think they are pretty good. There are definite misses, but also some big hits. On the position player side, they aren’t good at all. They either can’t recognize decent hitting or they don’t know what it is. And they have no idea about defense. They think Yuni and Pods are good defenders. They just can’t scout defense well. They can’t scout position players well.
Pods has never been particularly good defensively. He’s been really fast (although he’s lost a step or two by now), so one would think he’d cover a lot of ground, but he really doesn’t. He doesn’t get good reads. He doesn’t take great routes. He gets fooled often in the field. Sometimes his speed makes up for that. Sometimes it doesn’t.
The worst part is there were better, similarly cheap OF alternatives out there. Many of them. And instead Moore chose to acquire the OFers who were clearly inferior.
Dayton Moore is bad at his job.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 9, 2010 3:49 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Do you think Dayton was in love with the .300 average?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Too bad Juan Pierre was so expensive
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
1 out of 4 ain't bad
If he were a hitter, that .250 average would get him a 3 year $36 million with the Royals.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 11, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and this is the biggest problem
but that’s okay, because after we lose 100 games this season he’s not going to have this job for much longer
-
I dunno
This is an organization that can’t figure out that Jose GUillen is a sunk cost, and Dayton’s signed through, what, 2035?
I’m not holdng my breathe, even if they do lose 100
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 9, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
what is this sunk cost you speak of?
this is baseball, not economics!
even though Moore came from George Mason, which has a pretty good rep for econ, especially the Austrian school, from what i’ve heard.
Money isn’t the key to happiness…Its a speedy centerfielder and a gritty field general behind the plate.
haha!
I’m not an economist, but I remember the Austrian stuff and George Mason connection.
Is it possible Dayton Moore doesn’t believe in marginal utility?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 9, 2010 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe he doesn't believe in the value of fiat currency
so these contracts are all worthless in his mind.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Jan 9, 2010 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm guessing Dayton also has a lot invested in precious metals
I would also makes sense that he doesn’t believe in inflation/deflation of “real” currency — if it’s valuable in 2005, it’s valuable forever!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 9, 2010 7:00 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 11, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
In case anyone was wondering, the Austrian school is wrong
Or mostly wrong. I’m amazed after being in economics for over 10 years that so many people can buy into ideas that have been empirically proven to be inferior. Oh wait, I just described the Royals’ FO!
by jsolo on Jan 10, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
was not aware it was "wrong"
i’d hesitate to believe anyone who makes a generically broad statement like that regarding the Royals or economics.
Of course I was being facetious in order to make a snarky remark about the Royals' FO
However if you want to debate the merits of Austrian economics with me, I’d be happy to oblige.
As far as the Royals are concerned, I think they’ve more than earned the right to have generically broad statements made about them.
by jsolo on Jan 10, 2010 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
haha true point
i was just doubling down on the snark. As for a debate, maybe someplace else at some other point in time, I don’t want to drag this site into some ugly, and more importantly, boring discussion.
Heh - seriously
Nothing would scare away RR members more than a debate about theoretical economics!
The masochist Royals fan in me
is actually disappointed not to find 40 back and forth replies about this.
Let The Galbraith/
Friedman Texas death match begin!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
I am backing von Mises on this one
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Jan 11, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
They'll likely win 70+ games
This team could limp through with a win total in the low 70’s for several years. Unfortunately, they might not have the catastrophe season which will get him fired. It might take a long time for Glass to finally make the move.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 9, 2010 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
That's the worst part
If you’re a fan of this team, you are basically forced to root for a 100+ loss season in the hopes that it will mean Dayton is canned. So even if you get excited about the occasional nice win, in the back of your mind you’re thinking “crap, that just means Dayton is another win closer to justifying his continued existence.” But you can’t ever really root for your favorite team to lose on a daily basis. It’s so counterintuitive. The entire situation makes my head hurt.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 9, 2010 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
i keep waiting to feel better about this organization
But it’s not happening. The sad part is I’m not surprised about the Pods signing. The most distressing part of the DM reign for me continues to be the constant Braves retread signings and imports. At least Pods isn’t a former Brave.
meaning that’s the bright side for me.
by royalspipeline on Jan 9, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
almost as good

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 9, 2010 6:53 PM EST up reply actions
While I don't get the Scotty P signing at all
…it makes me even more confused as to why the hell Moore signed Brian Anderson for seven hundred thousand clams. We have two center fielders already—DDJ and Mitch—and now we also have two more “center fielders”—Scotty P and Willie Hustle. We needed a legit RFer so that if Trey was hellbent on playing Hoagie, he could stick Hoagie’s awful defense at DH. Or, if we really needed a 4th OFer, we could have picked up some random AAA team’s starting center fielder for the minimum. Instead, we paid $2.5MM for two 4th OFs despite already having Maier for the league minimum and having Shane Costa stashed away in Omaha. WTF?
I think this is...
…exactly what’s about to happen. Well, let me qualify “about”—-sometime before the end of spring training. I think this is why we’re stockpiling outfielders.
Oh, and by the way: I’m no internet troll. This Wikipedia definition of troll pretty much hits the mark. If disagreeing with Royals Review posters’ negativity is being a troll, well, things are topsy turvy here. In fact, I’m the Pollyannaish optimist around here. But let’s just cease and desist with the name calling all together. – TL
No, not...
…blind. But I’m definitely over-optimistic. It’s the only way to sustain being a fan of the Royals—-i.e. to obtain to some level of blinders-on Cubs-like optimism. – TL
It isn't the only way. I'm a huge fan of the Royals.
Doesn’t mean I have to justify everything the organization does though.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
I'm with you though TL.
I’m overly optimistic with this team as well.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
So you don't even attempt serious, honest analysis of moves that the Royals make?
You just argue that they are good moves so you can pretend that the Royals have a shot. I guess your empty arguments make sense then.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 10, 2010 7:57 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm...
In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into an emotional response1 or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.
Tim, I’m not calling anyone names. You may not intend to be a troll, but to me you fit the whole defintion except for the off-topic part. You know exactly how we will react when you post. You’ll get an emotional response that disrupts the flow of conversation because you’re either convinced that DM is always right (you’ve been proven wrong how many times now?), or you’re doing it on purpose to provoke the reaction. At some point, I think you need to seriously reevaluate your outlook on this team. You keep believing in “the process” and where has it gotten you and this team? I used to be a lot like you with blind optimism, but after being educated in the ways of WAR, wOBA, etc. it gets really hard to ignore just how painfully bad this team is and will continue to be. Ignorance may be bliss to you, but at some point willful ignorance gets to be intolerable to me.
Doesn’t it bother you in the least that DM talked specifically about getting more 0-3 years of service players, so he can aquire cheap, young talent? And then he goes out and gets guys like Jason Kendall and Scott Podsednik?
It doesn’t bother you that the Scotty Pods move has been called out as horrible at least as early as Dec 22nd? TWO WEEKS before it even happened? http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/12/22/1213052/royals-sign-brian-anderson-to-one
At some point this just gets ridiculous, and for anyone to be able to defend these moves shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how to win baseball games. Can Podsednik outperform our expectations? Sure he can. But 3 years of sub-par performance and a “big” 2009 has me betting on a return to pre-2009 form (Scott has 1 season of being over 100 OPS+, that was 2003). And what’s the point anyways? Why not let Mitch play? He’s 1.3M cheaper, and will do about the same job. It’s not like Scott is young and can develop, so why? There’s just no defense for this move. If the Royals are going to lose around 90 games this year, they could do it a lot cheaper and find out more about their young players, but instead DM makes his patented young player blocking move. Last year, he tried to block Billy Butler and Kila from playing 1B. Jacobs turned out to be so bad that only Kila got blocked. This year MITCH has been blocked by Pods, Brian Anderson, and Fields. Not to mention Kila at DH is probably out, and that Parraz and Lough will probably be AA/AAA material that possibly gets blocked by the logjam of suck in the OF. What possible reason could there be for an option next year on Pods? DM is so hellbent on not playing young players it’s ridiculous.
To sum up, you may not be a troll, but the only reason you aren’t would hinge on whether or not you do this to purposefully provoke the response. You’re walking a very fine line.
by AxDxMx on Jan 9, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
back from troll to the original question
I guess you could say that he’s setting up depth for a trade… who knows
Way to bend over backwards...
…justifying your lousy troll point. Go see the Crasnick post I just put up. – TL
Yes, Crasnick is an idiot
timlacy is a great left-fielder! Just because I said it doesn’t make it true.
But everything ESPN employees say is true!
Their analysis is rock solid 100% of the time.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 10, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
You have to respect an ex-jock's opinion
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
I really think you're walking the fine line ADM
Seriously, you aren’t doing exactly what you claim he is? I must not see the world through what you do …
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
not me.
I think you should just look in the mirror.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I Tried That
It was ugly.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
Also, apparently Anderson has an option remaining
Or so says the Star.
Who the hell cares?
Shelling out $700K for some guy you’re going to stash in your AAA team is no way to build a pennant-caliber team. Unless that way is The Process.
Agreed.
Given the Pods signing, the Anderson deal seems silly. Because Maier has no options remaining and Anderson does it makes it more likely that Anderson starts the season in Omaha – which, to your point, makes no sense given the 700k contract. Unless the point is to release or trade Maier, which would be exceedingly short sighted given his contract and skills.
The 400 Meter
Relay team should be ready for 2012.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
I hope they trade DDJ now. See what they can wrangle
away from the Yankees or anyone else who needs a good outfielder. Play Maier or Pods in Left it will be a downgrade for the Royals but they definitely need to start thinking about 2012-2020
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Good Idea In
Theory, but it’s scary to imagine the deal GMDM would concoct.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 9, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Aroldis Chapman
With all the alleged super pro scouts within the KC Royals front office, which is lead by super baseball genius Dayton Moore, why has the front office not given thought to having KC’s recently signed LHP Noel Arguelles help work the back door in landing another Cuban defector pitcher Aroldis Chapman?
If two guys defect together, does it not make sense that they have a powerful bond which goes far beyond most personal friendships? Each has a thirst for freedom and a thirst to play in the big leagues. They played together as teammates in Cuba, they planed to defect together and seek what this Country has to offer; freedom to earn a living beyond their wildest dreams, become someone that the whole world will take note of, should they succeed in MLB.
Since the Royals has signed the lesser known pitcher, does it not make sense for the Royals to try and leverage their success by having their employee make direct contact with his buddy. Have the newly signed employee say and do all the things that might entice a fellow defector into joining him as a member of a team that jumped at the chance to make him an instant millionaire. Cuba is not NY and KC is far more attuned to the lifestyle these youngesters have lived in Cuba, a carefree life away from the glare of the major market media but one that offers riches that they have only dreamed about for most of their short lives.
by Aguylooking09 on Jan 10, 2010 3:16 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
work the back door
TWSS
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 10, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
it didn't sound like dayton moore had the money to offer chapman
i got the impression that he’d be able to spend in the ten million dollar range if he thought chapman was worthwhile. there’s no way dayton’s going to ask for an extra $15MM or chapman will take that much less to be near a buddy.
Chapman signed for 30M according to Passan
that’s too much for the Royals
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
If you think about it though
Its only $6 million average per year, or what we paid Coco Crisp last season. And its only $1 million for 2010.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Very disappointing to me
DM will make some good moves and then follow it up with head-scratchers like Kendall. What bothers me about Podzilla is not necessarily the signing or the terms (he could at least have a little surplus value) but it’s the subsequent sub-optimal choices that could be made as a result.
A question: how good defensively would an OF of Podzilla, DDJ, and MITCH be? If that’s what happened, with Guillen either DHing or (gasp) off the team, how would that look?
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 10, 2010 9:38 AM EST reply actions
depends on the configuration
Pods and DDJ are both best at the same position at this point
I’m not sure about Mitch’s arm, but RF would be an issue
I really like "Podzilla"
it might even be a better nickname than “The Podsednik” (which, let’s be honest, sounds like something Kenan Thompson’s Grady Wilson character would come up with on Saturday Night Live)
I'd rather have Callaspo DHing than JoGui and have Getz's defense in... but that won't happen either.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
This Won't Happen
Pena C
Butler 1B
Getz 2B
Aviles SS
Gordon 3B
DDJ LF
Podzilla CF
Fields RF
Callaspo DH
Bench- Kendall,Bloomers, Maier, Kila
I’m convinced this would be better than any configuration that includes Hoagy and Yu-Bet, but sunk costs are sinking this team.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know about Fields in the OF on the right side... how much has he played there?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Salient Point Is
Both his bat and glove have to be better than Hoagy at this point. Maier could be the defensive replacement; you know Trey has to have one.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
I guess anyone is better in RF,
even Bloomy.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
His Dives Are
Entertaining at least.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
This entire conversation is depressing
Like Dayton Moore has been constructing this roster like someone who does not know the rules of baseball and is unaware of how many positions there are on the field.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The Damon Hollins
Signing makes it all come together.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
the process
I BELIEVE in the process. i really hope the process is to fill the roster with expendable guys for this season while hopefully some of the kids in the minors make giant leaps this year and are ready to contribute the next or in the middle of next. The core of the team for the next five or more years is kinda there already Zack, Billy, Joakim and Alex. Apart from those the rest of the team can be replaced along with Gordon if his breakout year doesnt happen this season and DeJesus will probably be traded for another prospect that will hopefully help in two or so years. Not to say the players we have are bad players but there are some guys who are there to compete for the same job so give the Royals options and raising the level of play to have the best candidate rise to the occasion. I dont have as high hopes about this year as I did last year this time of year but think the royals can leave last place and have meaningful games late in the year. Its still very close in the central and if those players who need to have a above average season, do, it could be a fun year.
While I appreciate your optimism
It is misguided. I see the ceiling for this team as 70 wins, and if a couple of things go wrong, or there is disaster (A Greinke injury) it could be the worst ever.
Is it safe?
I agree with you from the standpoint
that this could be really, really ugly if Greinke and/or Meche and/or Bannister are hurt. However, I do think that a lot of the moves have been made to create depth. In the abstract, I believe it is correct to do. This team is/was still woefully short on quality options in a number of spots.
While I don’t agree with the Podzilla signing, I will point out two things. First, this does give us some depth/options in the OF and maybe (although I doubt it) it allows us to release Guillen. Last year we were running Ryan Freel and Josh Gathwhite out there. Second, at least we did attempt to trade for Pie before making this move.
The Kendall signing is plainly indefensible. What is so maddening about it is the 2nd year tacked on (the gift that keeps on giving!). All that being said, I think we’re set up better depth-wise and expect a low-mid 70s win total in 2010. If that happens and some guys start taking some real steps forward in the minor leagues, then maybe there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon. Another year like 2009, and Moose/Hosmer continue to struggle, DM’s on the hot seat. No more excuses.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 10, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
tend to agree
don’t see 100+ losses
with a healthy greinke, its going to be damn difficult to lose 100
not that they can’t
don't forget
Greinke can’t win games without runs
(….or can he?)
Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 11, 2010 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
he'll manufacture is own runs
in the opposite side of an inning he’ll convince Hillman he’s ScottyP and hit for a cycle, all while pitching a shut out.
Will Ebners Hit Parade, Pain TV; Channel 32; All the time! (PDT)
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jan 11, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Making sense of Anderson and Podsednik signings is challenging
When KC signed Brian Anderson, I thought they were going with a Maier/Anderson look in CF. Signing Podsednik making signing Anderson an odd move. He does have an option left but Dyson and Lough should be at Omaha. Could see Lough beginning in AA with Dyson, Parraz, Coats, Costa and Anderson at Omaha.
I am still looking for the logic but might be searching for a while. Feel like Maier is really getting screwed. He hasn’t gotten a chance to prove (or disprove) that he can be an everyday player. After his 2009 second half, thought the Royals would give him a shot to win the position. Signing a FA veteran kills that idea.
the good news is we outbid no one
to sign Anderson to 700K and a big league contract so he can be in omaha
We couldn't take chances with an opportunity like that
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Oh Dayton...
I am trying to hold out hope, but it’s getting harder. I, like many others, was expecting Dayton Moore to be the second coming of John Scherholtz, but am about ready to concede that pipe dream. I feel like the only real change between his regime and Allard Baird’s is that he’s been more successful getting the Glass family to spend money.
Rather than pickup Scott Posednik and Jason Kendall I’d rather give the youth (Mitch Maier, Brayan Pena) a chance; it’s not like we’re close to a title anyway. At least it’s more interesting to see whether or not they can cut it rather than watching over-the-hill retreads. His trades (with the possible exception of Tyler Lumsden) have been abysmal as well. Can we get someone on his team to preach the merits of sabermetrics to him?
CC, what do you think the difference in wins this year will be
with Kendall and Podsednik vs. Maier and Pena…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Kendall+Poddy= -Wins
Compared to the in house alternative.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
The Net Effect
Honestly, I think the potential difference in wins is nominal at best with those 2 veterans, and could make an argument—and believe to be true—that we would be better off with Maier and Pena; Maier has demonstrated a good-to-great glove in CF and his bat warmed up toward the end of the year; Pena is still unknown given the limited sample size, but has shown flashes offensively.
My guess is Kendall is a decent clubhouse influence and has a marginal year. I bet Podsednik gets hurt and is around the .260 year that is his norm. If the Royals weren’t going to go with Maier from the outset, I’d have preferred they try to re-sign Crisp to an incentive-laden deal. I live in Chicago and there has not been a single tear shed about not resigning Scotty Pods; more has been made of Getz and Fields being shipped out.
I Like Kendall
On the bench. He’s just not a starter at this point. Poddy will run through a wall for you so yes, he likely will log time on the DL, possibly a lot of it. That might be the only good reason to have Anderson in Omaha. I think they could have skipped the FA signings altogether and played Mitch, but Anderson kind of made sense in a platoon CF/4th OF sense. I’ve yet to see why signing SP makes any sense for this team.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
he might make sense
if we drop guilen. that might have a chance to be a decent defensive OF.
kendall makes no sense whatsoever
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 10, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'd Rather Have
Buck, and I have to believe he’d have signed Kendall’s contract in a heartbeat. All that aside, I wouldn’t mind Kendall as a backup from a pure baseball perspective. Without the everyday grind of being a MLB starting catcher he might be able to perform better in a limited role, and he could be a good influence in the clubhouse. I don’t know enough about him to know if the latter is true. Yes, he’s too expensive.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 10, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't understand
there has to be some rationale for the signing, doesn’t there? Something we don’t know about? Put the tools vs. stats argument aside, how can anyone look at Kendall and say that he is going to be productive?
I mean really, did DM try with the other guys and they all said no? Is there something to the “the Royals can’t sign any free agents so they have to overpay” line of thinking? I just don’t understand how somebody who has spent their entire career in baseball and has made some really great moves can make some that are just so bad.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 11, 2010 7:49 AM EST up reply actions
This is the biggest argument that we don't know anything about
I read on arrowheadpride.com that there are a few agents who encourage their players not to go to KC (football) because of the success/disorganization in the last few years. I’d imagine that the same thing is true in baseball..
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I would be curious to see
what it was like for the Twins when they were trying to get better in the late 90s. did they have to take bargain-basement types as FA?
of course, this doesn’t explain/excuse the jacobs/nunez trade.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 11, 2010 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
and even if every other CFer better than The Podseiden
rejected the Royals, it doesn’t mean it’s OK to waste money
Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 11, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
And that is the crux of the problem
I think the potential difference in wins is nominal at best with those 2 veterans
No – the moves probably don’t make a big difference in the immediate W-L record, but they are not advancing the team in any discernible direction. At the same, time there are alternate decisions that could have been made, that wouldn’t have resulted in a significant difference in 2010, but that would have put the team in better position in 2011 and beyond.
by Steve Nelson on Jan 11, 2010 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
which is truly damning
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2010 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
But DM was prepared to go 2/$12M with a lucrative option year for Slick Rick
But Ankiel thought he could squeeze more money out of DM, and somehow DM called his bluff.
did you see that somewhere?
just curious
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jan 11, 2010 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Like the new headline: Older, Worse, More Expensive
Kind of describes myself
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
I'll Bet I'm
Older, worser and expensiver than you two combined.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions
Moore and "old school" roster construction
In another thread a week or so ago, somebody offered the argument that Moore was trying to solve his CF and C positions using “old school” values as his criteria.
I assume this means that the catcher should be a great game caller, and a great defender who controls the running game, and you simply “accept” what he can do with the bat, one way or the other. Also assume this means the CF should be an excellent defender with great speed, the ability to steal bases, and you simply “accept” some (presumably) of his hitting limitations.
I would be more inclined to cut DM some slack, IF HE ACTUALLY TRIED TO OBTAIN THESE TYPE OF PLAYERS as “old school” convention dictates.
In other words, you want an old school catcher? Then go out and find a way to trade for Yadier Molina, not 34 year old Jason Kendall. At least that way, your catcher can be well above average AT SOMETHING.
Same goes for the CF situation. You want an “old school” centerfielder? Then find a way to trade for Brett Gardner or Franklin Guittierez, not an over-the-hill guy like PODSEDNIK or BRIAN ANDERSON. At least that way, your CF can be well above average AT SOMETHING.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Jan 11, 2010 1:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
indeed!
Will Ebners Hit Parade, Pain TV; Channel 32; All the time! (PDT)
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jan 11, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I Tried To
Make this point, but not nearly as well as you just did. Nothing wrong with defense up the middle and power on the corners if you actually get good players to fill these traditional roles.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Ultimately it's about how you get the best value ...
… recognizing runs created on offense and runs saved on defense.
You can make tradeoffs between the two, and that also fits into the context of building a team to match the park and blend with the rest of the roster.
For example, let’s say that the home park for a club favors left handed hitters, Meanwhile the pitching staff is generally flyball oriented.
In that scenario, a left-handed hitting second baseman will have more value for that club than he would for some other club. You can live with less defensive prowess because the offensive fit is better.
Similarly, despite his NY media fanned reputation, Derek Jeter has been a pretty bad defensive shortstop for quite a few years. But he’s still a tremendous player because he provides such outstanding offense.
by Steve Nelson on Jan 11, 2010 11:58 PM EST up reply actions
A comment for timlacy
I sure hope you are correct in saying you think the Royals will release Guillen before spring training.
Rest assured, most RR readers would not hesitate to cite that as a positive sign about GMDM, as it would indicate an abilty to recognize a sunk cost, and at least partially explain what appears on the surface to be superfluous signings of not 1, but 2 marginal outfielders this offseason.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Look at Hoagy's
Contract as 2/36 instead of 3/36; any way you look at it, he’s done as a MLB player, and nothing will change that. I suppose he could go all Gaetti and have a great year out of the blue, but I’m willing to take that chance. Let him do it in Texas for the minimum. I’d be happy for him.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be happy to bet you anything or any amount of money that the Royals don't release Guillen before opening day
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 11, 2010 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
the sliver of hope, for me, is that (FIRE) GMDM NOW!!!! has some shiny new toys
and he can’t play all of them if Guillen is taking a lineup spot. he said he sees Callaspo as an important piece (although that may be just trying to inflate Callaspo’s trade value). that leaves Getz, Fields, Callaspo, The Podseidon, The Other Brian Anderson, DeJesus, Gordon, and don’t forget Bloomy for 5 spots + DH. And maybe MITCH is in there too.
Releasing him outright is a bit far-fetched, but some sort of salary-dump trade doesn’t seem out of the question.
Conversation b/t Special baseball operations consultant Zapp Brannigan and GM Dayton Moore: "...but paper covers rock and rock crushes scissors...we have a conundrum. Get me some paper, a rock, and some scissors."
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 11, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, An Outright
Release would be admitting a mistake, and that won’t happen. A total salary dump with a C- low A ball relief pitcher in return would save face at least.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 11, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Meant to write that...
…I would take a bag of peanuts for the guy. The guy is so completely worthless to us, and everyone knows it, that he’ll be impossible to trade. So we’ll have to rely on The CheapSkate Owner to sign off on an outright release. – TL



















