What does having the #1 farm system mean? Part 1
by nwroyal on Oct 14, 2010 5:05 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintOver this winter, pretty much any and every publication that ranks minor league systems will have the Royals at #1. I decided to take a look back and see what that has meant for teams. We've heard that over the last decade every team that has been ranked #1 has made the playoffs within 5 years. That's nice but it doesn't really tell you how instrumental their farm system was in that process.
What I've done is look at Baseball America's #1 farm system for the past 10 years. I look at how much WAR their top 10 prospects contributed over the 7 years after they were named the #1 system. In this first installment, you'll also see approximately how much salary those prospects were paid.
I know this system isn't perfect. Some of the players got traded and so didn't get that WAR for their original team. Players who contribute outside of the Top 10 aren't figured. But I hope this will be a rough sketch for floor, ceiling and median of what can be expected from a #1 farm system over the next several years.
Part 1 covers the first 5 years. Part 2 will look at the next 5 years (and will also look at how the #2 and #3 ranked minor league systems have done).
| 2001 White Sox | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
| 1WAR Jon Rauch | 0 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 1salary | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | |
| 2WAR Joe Borchard | 0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2salary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| 3WAR Joe Crede | -0.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| 3salary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 4.9 |
| 4WAR Matt Ginter | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4salary | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | ||
| 5WAR Danny Wright | -0.2 | 2.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5salary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||
| 6WARLorenzo Barcelo | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6salary | 0.2 | ||||||
| 7WAR Brian West | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7salary | |||||||
| 8WAR Aaron Rowand | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 5.6 |
| 8salary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.4 |
| 9WARJosh Fogg | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 9salary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 3.6 |
| 10WARJason Stumm | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10salary | |||||||
| Total WAR | 1.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 8.6 |
| Total salary | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 13.8 |
The first team we look at is one of the worst case scenarios of #1 systems. Jon Rauch was the #4 overall prospect, Joe Borchard was #23 overall, Joe Crede #36, Matt Ginter #44 and Danny Wright #61. Aaron Rowand ended up being the best player from this group and had some nice seasons. Joe Crede had a couple of OK season and beyond them the best year was from Josh Fogg. The best season from the prospects as a group was 2004 when they produced a collective 10.5 WAR. If that is the best that KC's Top Ten produces there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth. The 2005 White Sox won the World Series but only got 6.2 WAR from their Top Ten.
| 2002 Cubs | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| 1 WAR Mark Prior | 2.8 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1$ | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2WAR Juan Cruz | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 2$ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 3WAR Hee Seop Choi | -0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3$ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4WAR Dave Kelton | 0 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4$ | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5WAR Bobby Hill | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5$ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6WAR Carlos Zambrano | 1.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| 6$ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 12.4 | 16.0 |
| 7WAR Nic Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7$ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8WARBen Christensen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8$ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9WARScott Chiasson | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9$ | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10WARLuiz Montanez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10$ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Total WAR | 3.7 | 13.9 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| Total $ | 1.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 13.8 | 18.2 |
The 2002 Cubs farm system featured Mark Prior (#2 overall), Juan Cruz (#6), Hee Seop Choi (40), Dave Kelton (45), Bobby Hill (48), Carlos Zambrano (80) and Nich Jackson (68). Perhaps we envision a great farm system producing a wave that gradually grows for a few years and that by year 4 or so produces something overwhelming. For the Cubs, year 2 was the hilight. Of course, the Cubs infamously came that close to going to the World Series thanks to great season by Prior and Zambrano. But, as you can see, it was downhill after that--due to the Prior injury and the bizarre stagnation of Choi.
| 2003 Indians | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| 1WAR Brandon Phillips | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| 1$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.9 | ? |
| 2WAR Victor Martinez | 0.5 |
4.0 |
5.2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 4.1 |
| 2$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | ? |
| 3WAR Cliff Lee | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 7.2 | 6.6 |
| 3$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ? |
| 4WARJeremy Guthrie | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 4$ | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | ? |
| 5WAR Travis Hafner | 0.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 2.4 | -0.8 | 1.2 |
| 5$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 8.1 | ? |
| 6WARRicardo Rodriguez | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7WARGrady Sizemore | 0 | 1.1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 1.9 |
| 7$ | 0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 3.2 | ? |
| 8WARBilly Traber | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| 8$ | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 9WARBrian Tallet | 0.1 | 0 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| 9$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | ? |
| 10WARJason Davis | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0 |
| 10$ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 | ? |
| Total WAR | 3.9 | 13.0 | 20.0 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 19.9 | 19.6 |
| Total $ | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 25.1 | ? |
Wow. What a top 10. The Indians had Brandon Phillips (#7 overall), Victor Martinez (#16), Cliff Lee (#30), Jeremy Guthrie (70), and Travis Hafner (#46). This was, of course, after the Barolon Colon trade where the Indians got Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore. By year 2, the Indians top 10 got almost 14 WAR but then they took it to another level. What is interesting is the different players combining to post those impressive totals. Hafner has some big years and then fades but then Philips (who Cleveland dumped) re-establishes himself. Cliff Lee goes up and down. Cleveland ends up winning 93 games and missing the playoffs in 2005 and then wins 96 games in 2007 and almost makes the Series.
| 2004 Brewers |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1WAR Rickie Weeks |
0 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
6.1 |
| 1$ | 0 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
? |
? |
| 2WAR Prince Fielder |
0 |
0.1 |
1.3 |
5.3 |
2.7 |
6.9 |
4.2 |
| 2$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
? |
? |
| 3WAR JJ Hardy |
0 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
| 3$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
2.7 |
? |
? |
| 4WAR Manny Parra |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
| 4$ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 5WARBrad Nelson |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.1 |
-0.4 |
0 |
| 5$ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.3 |
? |
0 |
| 6WAR Mike Jones |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 6$ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 7WAR Corey Hart |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
4.3 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
| 7$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 8WARBen Hendrickson |
0.2 |
0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 8$ |
0.3 |
0 |
0.3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 9WARDave Krynzel |
0.1 |
-0.2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 9$ |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 10WAR Lou Palmisano |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 10$ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Total WAR |
0.3 |
1.8 |
3.6 |
17.6 |
13.2 |
10.6 |
16.5 |
| Total $ |
0.6 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
5.6 |
? |
? |
The 2004 Brewers had Rickie Weeks (#5 overall), Prince Fielder (#10), JJ Hardy (#19), Manny Parra (#69), Brad Nelson (#48), and Mike Jones (#84). The Brewers got their best production from their Top 10 (17.6 WAR) in 2007 but finished with 83 wins. In 2008, they won the Wild Card getting 13.2 WAR from their Top 10 (Remember this Top 10 was before they drafted Ryan Braun).
| 2005 Angels |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
| 1WAR Casey Kotchman |
0.4 |
-0.5 |
3.3 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
-1.1 |
| 1$ |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
? |
? |
| 2WAR Dallas McPherson |
0.9 |
0.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
0 |
0 |
| 2$ |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 3WAR Erick Aybar |
0 |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
1.7 |
3.5 |
0.8 |
| 3$ |
0 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 4WAR Jeff Mathis |
0 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
| 4$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 5WAR Kendry Morales |
0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
-0.3 |
4.5 |
1.4 |
| 5$ |
0 |
? |
? |
? |
? |
? |
| 6WAR Brandon Wood |
0 |
0 |
-0.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
-1.8 |
| 6$ |
0 |
0 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 7WAR Ervin Santana |
1.7 |
3.4 |
1.1 |
5.8 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
| 7$ |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 8WAR Howie Kendrick |
0 |
0.6 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
| 8$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 9WAR Alberto Callaspo |
0 |
-0.2 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
| 9$ |
0 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
? |
? |
| 10WAR Steven Shell |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.2 |
0 |
0 |
| 10$ |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0.4 |
0 |
0 |
| Total WAR |
3.0 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
11.5 |
14.6 |
4.0 |
| Total $ |
0.9 |
2.4 |
3.8 |
4.7 |
? |
? |
The 2005 Angels had Casey Kotchman (#6 overall), Dallas McPherson (#12), Eric Aybar (#39), Jeff Mathis (#67), Kendry Morales (#76) and Brandon Wood (#83). The Angels had lots of success in the years after their farm system was named #1 but the system didn't contribute much until 2008/9--but those were the biggest win totals for the team during this period--100 wins in 2008 and 97 in 2009. I normally favor systems that have hitters at the top but, in this instance, the top 4 for the Angels were hitters and they didn't get much from those 4.
That's all for now. My next installment will have a lot more teams to look at as we will look at the #1, #2 and #3 ranked teams for the last 5 years.
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Comments
Tremendous
I have been waiting for something like this for awhile. Well done.
Seems like we can kinda expect 2-3 of the top five guys to be productive Major League starters, and another in the bottom five to be pretty solid as well, with one of the ten (maybe even two) being an All-Star caliber player, and the rest being filler.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Very Interesting, but I see one major difference
We’ll have to wait and see where everyone ends up but I see one major difference between our farm system this year and the years you are comparing it to.
From reading the various Baseball America chats and posts, the odds look good that the Royals will have four or five players in the top 25 overall (Moose, Hosmer, Myers, Monty and Lamb). Even if not all of them end up in the top 25, then they’ll surely be in the top 50. None of the teams above have more then 2 prospects in the top 25 overall, except for the 2004 Brewers system which has 3.
Add to this we have several other players who have good to outside shots at the top 100. (Duffy, Colon, Crow, Dwyer and Eibner)
Im not saying that makes the Royals system better but i’d say the royals system this year is a tad different then your normal #1 farm system.
by TheHouseFrankBuiltLiterally on Oct 14, 2010 5:32 PM EDT reply actions
I keep trying to tell myself this
But I’m starting to believe it’s not as big of a difference as we may think. I know NYRoyal is doing a piece of this, so I’ll wait for the results.
For a lot fo these teams, it seems like the lower ranked players end up doing just as good or better than the top ranked. I’m hoping it’s different with the Royals, but we’ll see.
One other point that the BA guys make from time to time
is that not all Top 100 lists are created equal. For example, the 2010 list headed by Strasbourg, Heyward, and Stanton has been cited as one of the best classes in recent history (I think 2006 gets mentioned a lot too), but 8 of the 2010 Top 10 (plus 13 of the Top 20) will have “graduated” this year (plus 13 of the Top 20), so next year is not expected to be, relatively speaking, as strong of list.
And one unusual aspect of the Royals’ system is that it has been several years since the system has “graduated” a Top 100 prospect (Gordon, Butler, Hochevar), so the Royals’ group of top prospects have effectively bunched up together. Some systems like Baltimore have had about the same number of and similar quality of top prospects in recent years (Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Tillman, Bell, Britton, Arrieta) but because their graduations have been staggered, the O’s have never ranked as the top system.
by Gopherballs on Oct 14, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
True
It’s also worth considering how many of the Royals players will graduate next year, not just how many will graduate overall. I don’t think we’ll see anyone from the top 10 in 2011 other than Moose (maybe a pitcher or two, but probably not enough to ‘graduate’).
Our farm system is quite a bit different in another aspect as well.
I think that our top guys are going to have an extra season playing in the minors rather then bringing them up as fast as possible to create Dayton’s “wave”. This could very well have the effect of producting higher WAR values at faster pace when this group hits the majors, beacuse they will have played with eachother and will be a little more seasoned then other top prospects when they get to the majors. I would not be surprised to see none of our top prospects come up until June or so of 2012.
Go Royals!
We will see Moose in June 2011
book it. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Duffy, Monty, and Hosmer also get the call in 2011. I think they want to have the new faces show up in 2011 and then sell the ‘new youthful Royals’ for 2012.
Good points
I would only take issue with the graduation point. 2010’s prospect list was historic but I don’t think graduating 8 out of 10 is out of normal—looking at 08/09 I think they graduated 7/10. The top of the 2011 list is going to have Harper/Trout/Montero/Myers/Teheran/Hellickson/Hosmer/Moose—I don’t see that as a down year—not as good as 2010 though.
I don't know
Because we didn’t have many top prospects before GMDM took over the draft in 2007….. we drafted HS kids and supplimented with NCAA guys or indy guys to keep the group together. I don’t think it’s bunching.
partially right
the Royals probably will have a Top 5 that is going to rank really, really high but can we expect them to be better than: Cliff Lee, V. Mart, Hafner, Sizemore and Philips? That’s asking a lot.
Sizemore wasn't top 5!
Plus Kila=Hafner, right???
You’re probably right, but I really really like our top 5 and think they will have a good amount of success.
Kila=Hafner now.
Not at the time. Of course, we also don’t have to worry about giving Kila a huge contract and having it blow up on our faces.
who will be our system's Phillips?
b/c you know GMDM’s got one “this guy has a bad attitude we’re trading him for 40 cents on the dollar” trade in him
hopefully we covered that with gutz and cortez
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 14, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe if...
we can get the same value for Zach the Indians got for Colon.
by I_Bleed_Red. on Oct 23, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Seriously great post
I’ll wait for your conclusion – but other than that Cleveland group, perhaps this shows that Greinke may be correct when (I’m parphrasing here) he said he would be gone before the current crop could continue. It does appear, for the other teams, that WAR production curve sorta takes a steep turn up around the 4th year.
Of course, housefrankbuilt makes a good point that perhaps our system is even better than these top systems listed. Another good point is that this should theoretically free up enough funds to resign/afford some of the current core players, such as Greinke, Soria, and Butler – so maybe there is time enough to convince Greinke to stay, if they win, say 80 or 85 games in 2012 and he can see that the corner has definitely been turned.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
that should read
“current crop could mature”
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Gross(est)
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Oct 19, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
From the 2001 Sox, this seems like an important note
The 2005 White Sox won the World Series but only got 6.2 WAR from their Top Ten.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions
2003 Indians - the expected boom occurred, but then what?
so much WAR from their Top 10 in 2008 and 2009, but a failure in the W/L column.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 5:48 PM EDT reply actions
Traded away their best players
Or they got hurt
They paid sizemore
and he got hurt. And Hafner. Sorry for mentioning that..?
I don't want to put words in 306008's mouth, but
I think he is being sarcastic. Perhaps, playing off of Dayton and Trey’s excuse of injuries being the reason we were so bad last year.
Where does the talent of Royals prospects go? I imagine a man in Germany shouting "Why can I play baseball so well? WHY?" - Joe Posnanski
"I really hate the Cardinals. All they do is bitch and moan about everything. They're little bitches" - Brandon Phillips
by RoyalsFanStuckInCardsLand on Oct 15, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I just thought it was odd that they had more WAR from their Top 10 in 2008 and 2009 but fewer wins.
Maybe those players were traded away or there were some other circumstances. What worries me is that the small-market-ness of Cleveland meant they couldn’t sustain success despite the sustained WAR from their Top 10.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yea
it fell apart pretty quickly
which can happen
there’s also a difference between having a brief peak as a farm system, versus having a sustained run (not necessarily saying that happened in CLE)
as NYRoyal has also said a million times, the farm system is just part of it, you also have to hit on your FAs (if you are spending enough to have any) and make good trades
Yes to FAs and good trades,
I just have no recollection, really, of what CLE has done over the past three years in that regard. Can the FO (be it GMDM himself or just a general lack of resources) negate the benefits of a farm system that produces? – Is that what happened to CLE, I mean. (I guess not having Cliff Lee anymore doesn’t help.)
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Cleveland had to trade Sabathia and Lee and the returns have been slow to contribute
Cleveland also had something like a five or more year stretch when it missed on its top draft picks. And then the two guys to whom the team committed 99% of the budget — Sizemore and Hafner — have been rendered ineffective by injuries.
So a little from each category
some bad luck, some bad player evals, and some small-market-ness.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
If they don't GMDM is taking his Process and he's going home
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 14, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, I think it's a given.
BA has already said the Royals will be #1, Goldstein has hinted as much. And then there will be smaller outlets that I"m guessing will follow suit—unless someone just wants to be different.
fair enough
I’m not really trying to be negative, just kinda thinking, more cyncially, if I’m BP or Sickels or whomever, I might look a little harder at being slightly different from BA
then again, maybe there’s a true consensus out there. i’ve legitimately been out of it the last two months
Are you suggesting that someone will come to their senses and say
Wait a second, it’s the Royals…
However, I didnt think about it until I saw this article:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2010/2610782.html
I think it may be possible that the Royals DONT make #1
Read carefully
Right now, Kansas City is the favorite to occupy the top spot when we unveil our next talent rankings in the 2011 Prospect Handbook.
Doesn’t meant that they ARE #1. I did read that article too, and I think they will be #1, but I did have thoughts that they might not be.
Honestly
if you follow BA and prospects intently, it’s abundantly clear that KC will be ranked #1. They have hinted at, or outright said, in numerous subscriber chats that KC’s farm system is the best in the majors.
and it wont be even close....
anyone who doesnt have them #1 is just doing it to be different and draw attention
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 14, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Pencil the Royals in for number one farm system next season as well.
Also you can pencil them in to spend a lot in the draft and to have another bad year in th emajors and thus and another good draft position in 2012, while still maintaining a lot of talent in thier system, and could very well have the top farm system for three or four years running.
Go Royals!
I could see us ranking highly next year
with a high pick in a loaded draft and then the loot we’re gonna get when trade Greinke in July. As for 3 or 4 years, who knows?
This is amazing.
Well done.
Dr. Ausgiano schools me in the classroom and on the field of battle
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Oct 14, 2010 7:36 PM EDT reply actions
Great work.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 14, 2010 11:48 PM EDT reply actions
There are very different types of systems getting #1s -- Are we younger than usual?
The 2001 Sox graduated 6 players from their system the next year; the 2002 Cubs graduated 7, and the 2003 Indians graduated 8. In contrast, the 2004 Brewers and 2005 Angels each only graduated 3.
The Royals definitely have more in common with the latter system. I don’t think we expect to see more than 3 or 4 from our top 10 next year (i.e. Moose, a couple of the SPs, and Collins if he’s ranked top 10). I certainly don’t take any comfort from the comparison to the Brewers and Angels experience, but I don’t know enough about what happened there to know how similar our situations are. Were those players still in the low- and mid-minors like ours, or did they get injured, or did they get blocked or what? Which of the past number 1s have had a group as young as the 2011 Royals system?
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
by KSinDC on Oct 15, 2010 1:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Cliff Lee = One of Lamb, Montgomery, Teaford, Dwyer, Duffy
V. Mart = Salvador Perez
Hafner = Kila
Sizemore = Myers or Eibner
Philips = Giavotella
What about Moustakas or Hosmer!!??
Perez as Martinez
Is a crazy comp. While Perez started a lot younger, he’s only had 1 minor league season where his OPS was over .800, and that was his injury-shortened 2008. Martinez, on the other hand, had only one season where his OPS was under .800, and that was his first year. I know that power is usually the last thing to develop for Dominican kids and he’s played in some pitcher-friendly parks/leagues, but Perez hasn’t shown anything close to Martinez’s level of play. For the Royals to get that level of catcher, Myers has to stick there.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Oct 19, 2010 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting how all those teams peaked
in the 3rd and 4th year and then fell off. I guess there’s something to this statistics thing…
Is that seat getting a little worm, Mr. Gill?
Having the number 1 farm system means nothing in our case...because they
over manage them at the wrong level. When they do finally decide to bring a prospect up, they wind up going back down, because of a lame FA signing. The ones who are hyped and advertised while in the minors, not surprisingly, turn out to be flashes in the pan, at the major league level. I don’t believe anything they try to feed us anymore.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
What's the risk of just bringing up all the best ones at once and starting them all.....
are they afraid they’ll blow another 100 loss season?
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
The typical answer to why not bring them up early would be "Alex Gordon"
I mean, why even have minor leagues? Why not just move your top 3 draft picks straight to the major leagues every year and see who sticks?
Seriously though K-man, I know you mostly from AP, but sthis is some super cynical stuff here. You’re just dismissing this research because it’s the Royals, so it won’t affect us.
The major point here is, it’s not the Royals they are the ones doing the hyping and advertising. It’s the national scouts and stat heads who know a lot about baseball that are saying these guys have a good shot at making the big leagues.
Of course it's cynical Boots.
I’m just so damn frustrated with their management right now. Why not gamble by bringing up guys after they’ve performed in the minors. It’s not like they can do any worse than last place again.
But you’re right.
I’m an angry man, when it comes to the Royals.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
I mean seriously, the NWA Naturals have a much better starting rotation than
the the Royals. I mean keep Greinke, send Hoch to the bullpen, and put the best three of these in the rotation, and let the chips fall where they may. At least we’d find out what we have in the pipeline against Major League hitting.
What’s the risk. We’re gonna lose 100 games if we don’t do something radical, that much I can guaranteee.
John Lamb
Michael Montgomery
Chris Dwyer
Danny Duffy
Aaron Crow
And all LEFTY’s.
If we just traded pitching staffs with them it would add twenty wins.
When do they give guys a chance?
Chris Lubanski was a top 10 pick….and they never let him wear a Royals uniform at the big league level….not even for 1 game, to see how he’d respond.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
While they're bringing up the Naturals entire staff, go ahead and bring up,
Myers to catch, Hosmer at first, Moustakis at 3rd, Colon at short, and Giovatella at 2nd base. Send Aviles down to learn how to field, and put Kila at 1st base depth behind Hosmer, then DH butler.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
Then we'd find out a few things.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
In short, I want to see some radical and dramatic moves.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
Why are we being so cautious with all these guys? They're already
millionaires playing in the minors….bring them up! The worse thing that could possibly happen, is that we’ll lose 95 games again…..and they can send the ones that don’t impress right back down again. So what.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
and btw, they waited way tooo long to bring up Gordon, and he still sucks.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
Gordon's potential and ability, has been one big, misdiagnosis by the scouts
and by Royals management.
"You sons of bitches. Give my love to Mother."
Francis "Two Gun" Crowley, (1900-1931) (American bank robber and murderer, before his execution in the electric chair)
uh huh, that's what I said.
"We're becoming a team that's going to have success, and it's going to be sooner rather than later, and at that time, I'll make an announcement as to when I think we're a good team". ~Todd Haley~
I blame the short kick.
Rec'd.....My broad conclusions
- It will take more than the farm to produce a winner. The window of opportunity otherwise is extremely small…perhaps no greater than a year.
- Most of these systems actually relied heavily on FA and trades to produce winners.
- Using these teams as a rubric, it means (and I’ll basically re-iterate what Retro said): of the top ten, 5 will bust, 1 or 2 will become a ML backup, 1 or 2 will become average, 1 will become above average, and 1 will become an All-Star. That could be considered a ‘successful’ production of a farm system, based on these past systems.
I don’t believe the notion of a team becoming a playoff contender four years correlates much with being ranked by B.A. as having the #1 system. Given our front office’s consistent inability to find talent and find value on the open market in recent years, I think one of two things will need to happen to yield any kind of a winner: (a) we’ll simply have to try to defy the odds by adding even more talent on the farm, some way, some how….or (b) ML will need to introduce serious revenue sharing in the next CBA (99.999% chance it won’t happen)
by Royals Nation on Oct 15, 2010 6:21 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
(b) ML will need to introduce serious revenue sharing in the next CBA (99.999% chance it won’t happen)
Should read “revenue sharing and salary cap.”
And this is speculation but even if it does happen…there’s no guarantee that will translate to success.
by Royals Nation on Oct 15, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Arguably
A restrictive salary cap would place even more of a premium on identifyng talent that is avaliable cheaper than it should be. The ultimate moneyball. I wouldn’t like Dayton’s chances of doing that. Good drafting also of course, but as always that is not enough on it’s own.
Mark this post down becuase you guys can pull it out and use it against me in the future
This is a special farm system that has the chance to be an outlier and outperform all the previous #1 systems. I think we can all at least agree that outperform is a possiblity with so much talent. With so many more highly regarded players, it becomes less likely that the Royals end up on the low side of this. So if you want to assign their possible performance to a Bell Curve, the Royals curve is shifted to the right about 10-15% I think. Still likely to be average to above average, but has a larger area of concentration on the above average side.
My expectations are 1 super stud perennial All-Star, 2-3 other All-Stars at some career point (Mark Redman career point?) and 4+ above average everyday players.
Laugh away.
This makes sense to me, they should be above average
However, if I wanted to be cynical:
2-3 other All-Stars at some career point
The Royals have to send someone every year, according to the odds this sounds about right.
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