What does having the #1 farm system mean? part 2

by nwroyal on Oct 22, 2010 3:14 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues

Part 1 covered the #1 ranked teams from the year 2001-2005. Now we will look at the past 5 years. In some ways I find this more interesting because I think prospect evaluation has gotten somewhat better due to better minor league information and also more competition in the prospect ranking world. I dropped the salary information because most of these players are still making close to the minimum. I also have included the #2 and #3 ranked teams just to give us a little more information to draw from.

2006 D-Backs #1	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Stephen Drew	1.0	-0.4	2.2	2.1	5.1
2 Conor Jackson	0.8	1.3	3.0	-1.0	0.3
3 Carlos Quentin	1.2	0.0	4.7	-0.4	0.0
4 Carlos Gonazalez	0	0	1.0	2.1	6.0
5 Dustin Nippert	-0.3	0.3	0.3	1.0	-0.3
6 Miguel Montero	0	0.0	0.7	3.0	1.9
7 Garrett Mock	0	0	0.4	0.9	-0.2
8 Matt Tora	0	0	0	0	0
9 Micah Owings	0	1.7	1.0	-0.4	-0.1
10 Sergio Santos	0	0	0	0	1.0
Total	2.7	2.9	13.3	7.3	13.6

The 2006 D-Backs were ranked #1 with Stephen Drew (#5 overall), Conor Jackson (#17), Carlos Quentin (#20), Carlos Gonzalez (#32), and Dustin Nippert (#67). The 2007 D-Backs went to the NLCS but, as you can see, they only 2.9 WAR from their Top 10. We will see Arizona ranked highly again in 2007 with a better crop of talent.

2006 Dodgers #2	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Chad Bilingsley	0.6	2.0	4.4	3.2	4.6
2 Andy LaRoche	0	0.3	-1.0	2.6	-0.7
3 Joel Guzman	0.0	-0.2	0	0	0
4 Russell Martin	2.7	5.8	4.6	2.2	2.1
5 Jonathan Broxton	1.4	2.0	2.2	2.9	1.2
6 Scott Elbert	0	0	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1
7 Blake DeWitt	0	0	1.7	-0.2	0.8
8 Matt Kemp	-0.4	1.7	3.2	5.0	0.3
9 Tony Abreu	0	0.7	0	0.1	-0.6
10 Chin-lung Hu	0	0.1	-0.5	0.0	-0.2
Total	4.3	12.4	14.4	15.7	7.4

The 2006 Dodgers Top 10 featured Chad Billingsley (#7 Overall), Andy LaRoche (#19), Joel Guzman (#26), Russell Martin (#42), Jonathan Broxton (#63), Scott Elbert (#55), Blake Dewitt (#82), and Matt Kemp (#96). So the Dodgers had 8 Top 100 Prospects--a very deep system. Kemp, Billingsley, Martin and Broxton all have had good to very good seasons. The 06 Dodgers won the Wild Card and lost in the Divison Series. The '07 Dodgers finished 4th despite winning 82 games. The 08 Dodgers won the division by winning 84 games. And the '09 Dodgers wond the division with 95 wins. The '08 and '09 teams both lost in the NLCS.

2006 Marlins #3	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Jeremy Hermidia	-0.6	2.7	0.4	0.6	-0.6
2 Soctt Olsen	2.3	0.5	1.0	0.1	0.6
3 Josh Johnson	2.5	0.2	2.1	5.6	6.3
4 Chris Volstad	0	0	1.5	0.2	1.8
5 Aaron Thompson	0	0	0	0	0
6 Robert Andino	-0.3	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.5
7 Taylor Tankersley	0.3	0.2	-0.7	0	-0.7
8 Josh Willingham	2.4	2.2	2.9	2.5	2.8
9 Kris Harvey	0	0	0	0	0
10 Ryan Tucker	0	0	-0.4	0	0
Total	6.6	5.8	6.9	8.9	10.7

The 2006 Marlins Top 10 featured Jeremy Hermidia (#4 overall), Scott Olsen (#34), Josh Johnson (#80), and Chris Volstad (#97). The failure of Jeremy Hermidia is one of the most puzzling prospect failures in recent years-- I really thought he was going to be a complete player. Josh Johnson has turned into one the NL's top pitchers. Josh Willingham has been a steady somewhat underrated contributor (now with the Nats). The Marlins won 78, 71, 84, 87 and 80 games in the years since their #3 ranking.

2007 Rays #1	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Delmon Young	0.1	-0.7	-1.1	2.1
2 Evan Longoria	0	5.4	7.3	6.9
3 Reid Brignac	0	-0.4	0.2	1.1
4 Jeff Niemann	0	0.0	3.0	1.2
5 Jake McGee	0	0	0	0.1
6 Elijah Dukes	0	-0.2	2.9	-0.3
7 Wade Davis	0	0	1.1	0.8
8 Matt Walker	0	0	0	0
9 Jeremy Hellickson	0	0	0	0.5
10 Joel Guzman	-0.2	0	0	0
Total	-0.1	4.1	13.3	12.6

The 2007 Rays featured Delmon Young (#3 overall), Evan Longoria (#7), Reid Brignac (#17), Jeff Niemann (#35), Jake McGee (#37), Elijah Dukes (#79), and Wade Davis (#97). This was the first of what we will see as many years of a highly touted Rays farm system. Other than Longoria, these actual players haven't made a huge contribution to the Rays--but of course there was the Delmon Young trade that helped them out so much. The Rays won 66 games in 2007 but then won 97 games in 2008 and made it to the World Series, they won 84 games in 2009 and 96 games this year, losing to the Rangers in the ALDS.

2007 Rockies #2	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Troy Tulowitzki	5.4	0.9	5.7	6.4
2 Franklin Morales	0.9	0.1	0.5	-0.5
3 Jason Hirsch	0.9	-0.1	0	0
4 Dexter Fowler	0	-0.3	0.4	1.7
5 Ian Stewart	0.2	1.2	1.1	1.6
6 Ubaldo Jimenez	1.1	4.3	5.7	6.3
7Greg Reynolds	0	-0.5	0	0
8 Chris Ianetta	0.4	3.6	2.0	0.6
9Jeff Baker	-0.4	0.6	1.3	1.1
10 Chaz Roe	0	0	0	0
Total	8.5	9.8	16.6	17.2

The 2007 Rockies Top 10 featured Troy Tulowitzki (#15 overall), Franklin Morales (#30), Jason Hirsh (#42), Dexter Fowler (#48), Ian Stewart (#46), Ubaldo Jimenez (#84), Greg Reynolds (#76), Chris Ianetta (#92). Another very deep system. Tulo and Ubaldo were obviously the big producers here. The 07 Rockies got 8.5 WAR that first year and propelled them to 90 wins and to the World Series where they lost. The 08 Rox won only 74 games before bouncing back in 09 with 92 wins--getting 16.6 WAR from their Top 10. They increased that to 17.2 this year but the team won 83 games and missed the postseason.

2007 D-Backs #3	2007	2008	2009	2010
1 Justin Upton	-0.5	0.5	4.6	3.1
2 Chris Young	1.0	2.2	0.3	4.3
3 Carlos Gonzalez	0	1.0	2.1	6.0
4 Alberto Callaspo	-0.8	1.2	2.3	1.4
5 Miguel Montero	0.0	0.7	3.0	1.9
6 Micah Owings	1.7	1.0	-0.4	-0.1
7 Mark Reynolds	1.7	1.4	3.6	2.4
8 Dustin Nippert	0.3	0.3	1.0	-0.3
9 Tony Pena	0.7	1.2	0.9	0.2
10 Brett Anderson	0	0	3.7	2.6
Total	4.1	9.5	21.1	21.5

The 2007 D-Backs Top 10 had Justin Upton (#9 overall), Chris Young (#12), Carlos Gonzalez (#18), Alberto Callaspo (#82), Miguel Montero (#63), and Micah Owings (#98). When you think about the potential of what the Royals Top 3 can do (Moose, Hoz, Myers) I think the best case scenario would be what Upton, Young and Gonzalez did in 2010.

2008 Rays #1	2008	2009	2010
1 Evan Longoria	5.4	7.3	6.9
2 David Price	0.2	1.5	4.3
3 Jake McGee	0	0	0.1
4 Wade Davis	0	1.1	0.8
5 Reid Brignac	-0.4	0.2	1.2
6 Desmond Jennings	0	0	0.0
7 Jeff Niemann	0.0	3.0	1.2
8 Jeremy Hellickson	0	0	0.5
9 Ryan Royster	0	0	0
10 Chris Mason	0	0	0
Total	4.8	14.1	15.0

The 2008 Rays Top Ten featured Evan Longoria (#2 overall), David Price (#10), Jake McGee (#15), Wade Davis (#17), Reid Brignac (#39), Desmond Jennings (#59), and Jeff Niemann (#99). Jeremy Hellickson, now one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, was on the Top Ten list but didn't make the Top 100. This is one of the very best groups of prospects we've seen in recent memory and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rival Cleveland's grouping of talent from 2003. Only this time, I think almost all the players will stay their team for the first 5 or 6 years. Tampa had 4 of the top 17, 5 of the top 40, and 6 of the top 60. I actually think the Royals could come close to doing something like that this year. Tampa made their amazing turnaround in 2008--there was no slow transition--it was just 66 wins in 2007 and BOOM! 97 wins in 2008. They slid back to 84 wins in 2009 before bouncing back to 96 wins in 2010.

2008 Red Sox #2	2008	2009	2010
1 Clay Buchholz	0.9	1.2	3.7
2 Jacoby Ellsbury	3.9	2.7	-0.2
3 Lars Anderson	0	0	0
4 Justin Masterson	0.8	2.1	2.7
5 Jed Lowrie	1.9	-0.2	1.8
6 Ryan Kalish	0	0	0.6
7 Mike Bowden	0.2	0.0	0.1
8 Nick Hagadone	0	0	0
9 Oscar Tejeda	0	0	0
10 Josh Reddick	0	-0.3	0.2
Total	7.7	5.5	8.9

Boston ranked #2 in the farm system rankings in 2008. Their Top Ten featured: Clay Buchholz (#4 overall), Jacoby Ells bury (#13), Lars Anderson (#40), Justin Masterson (#64), Jed Lowrie (#73), Ryan Kalish (#96), and Mike Bowden (#94). This system had a ton of depth but hasn't (yet) had great results. Their first year was pretty fruitful. Of course, the Red Sox supplement their prospects with free agents and trades. The Sox won 95 games in 08 and 09 before winning "just" 89 games last year.

2008 Reds #3	2008	2009	2010
1 Jay Bruce	0.8	1.7	5.3
2 Homer Bailey	-0.3	1.3	1.9
3 Joey Votto	4.0	4.6	7.4
4 Johnny Cueto	1.2	1.5	2.8
5 Drew Stubbs	0	1.4	3.2
6 Devin Mesoraco	0	0	0
7Todd Frazier	0	0	0
8Juan Francisco	0	0.5	0.1
9 Josh Roenicke	0.1	0.3	0.0
10 Matt Maloney	0	0.0	0.2
Total	5.8	11.3	20.8

The 2008 Red Top Ten featured Jay Bruce (#1 overall), Homer Bailey (#9), Joey Votto (#44), Johnny Cueto (#34), and Drew Stubbs (#100). I have to be honest, before I started this, I didn't think of the Reds when I thought of great recent farm systems. But the contribution of their farm system pushed them in to the playoffs in 2010 with almost 21 WAR. The Reds had been meddling around 70-some wins for a long time (winning 94 games in 2008 and 78 in 2009). But they busted out for 91 wins this year. The top 5 on this list really produced and the Reds should be contenders for the NL Central crown for the next few years.

2009 Rangers #1	2009	2010
1 Neftali Feliz	1.1	1.8
2 Derek Holland	1.1	0.8
3 Justin Smoak	0	0.1
4 Elvis Andrus	3.1	1.5
5 Martin Perez	0	0
6Taylor Teagarden	0.5	0.0
7Engel Beltre	0	0
8 Michael Main	0	0
9 Julio Borbon	0.6	1.3
10 Max Ramirez	0	0.2
Total	6.4	5.7

The 2009 Rangers had the best farm system as determined by Baseball America. Their Top Ten featured: Neftali Feliz (#10), Derek Holland (#31), Justin Smoak (#23), Elvis Andrus (#37), Martin Perez (#86) ,Taylor Teagarden (#73) and Max Ramirez (#84). The Top 10 contribution looks modest until you consider that Smoak brought them Cliff Lee. They won 87 games last year before winning 90 this year and are a win away from the World Series. The Rangers have had to cut payroll but may become big spenders again. The Rangers have a strong core and should be competitive in the AL West for a long time.

2009 Marlins #2	2009	2010
1 Cameron Maybin	0.8	0.4
2 Mike Stanton	0	2.7
3 Logan Morrison	0	1.1
4 Sean West	1.0	0.0
5 Ryan Tucker	0	0
6 Matt Dominguez	0	0
7 Kyle Skipworth	0	0
8 Gaby Sanchez	0.1	2.4
9 Chris Coghlan	2.7	0.8
10 Jose Ceda	0	0
Total	4.6	7.4

The 2009 Marlins Top Ten featured Cameron Maybin (#8 overall), Mike Stanton (#16), Logan Morrison (#18), Sean West (#96), Matt Dominguez (#64), and Kyle Skipworth (#85). The Marlins had (and have) a very good collection of young hitting. This list has some interesting names but isn't overly impressive as a group (especially if Maybin continues to flounder in the big leagues). They won 87 games in 2009 and 80 games in 2010.

2009 A's #3	2009	2010
1 Brett Anderson	3.7	2.6
2 Trevor Cahill	0.6	2.2
3 Michale Ynoa	0	0
4 Aaron Cunningham	-0.5	0.7
5 Adrian Cardenas	0	0
6 Chris Carter	0	-0.6
7 Gio Gonzalez	1.1	3.2
8 Vince Mazzaro	0.7	0.0
9 Jemile Weeks	0	0
10 James Simmons	0	0
Total	5.6	8.1

adThe 2009 A's Top Ten featured Brett Anderson (#7 overall), Trevor Cahill (#11), Michael Ynoa (#54), Aaron Cunningham (#55), Adrian Cardenas (#74), Chris Carter (#76), and Gio Gonzalez (#97). The A's were headed by a lot of pitching which is always difficult to predict. Anderson, Cahill, and Gonzalez have shown some flashes. The 2009 A's won 75 games and the 2010 team won 81. They face a tough road with Texas, the Angels and the Mariners in the same division.

2010 Rays #1	2010
1 Desmond Jennings	0.0
2 Jeremy Hellickson	0.5
3 Wade Davis	0.8
4 Matt Moore	0
5 Reid Brignac	1.1
6 Tim Beckham	0
7 Alex Colome	0
8 Jake McGee	0.1
9 Alex Torres	0
10 Nick Barnese	0
Total	2.5

The 2010 Rays were back on top the rankings. Their Top Ten featured: Desmond Jennings (#6 overall), Jeremy Hellickson (#18), Wade Davis (#34), Matt Moore (#35), Reid Brignac (#54), Tim Beckham (#67) and Alex Colome (#68). There isn't much more to write about the Rays that I didn't say above--other than to point to the importance of having the system bounce back with so much talent after graduating a lot of prospect in 08/09.

2010 Rangers #2	2010
1 Neftali Feliz	1.8
2 Justin Smoak	0.1
3 Martin Perez	0
4Tanner Scheppers	0
5 Jurickson Profar	0
6 Kasey Kiker	0
7 Robbie Ross	0
8 Mitch Moreland	0
9 Danny Gutierez	0
10 WIlmer Font	0
Total	1.9

Again we have the Rangers. Their Top 10 featured Neftali Felix (#9 overall), Justin Smoak (#13), Martin Perez (#17), and Tanner Scheppers (#42). Again, I just wrote about the Rangers. They still have a lot of talent coming up the pipe. Much of it is still a couple of years away.

2010 Indians #3	2010
1 Carlos Santana	2.0
2 Lonnie Chisenhall	0
3 Nick Hagadone	0
4 Jason Knapp	0
5 Michael Brantley	-0.7
6 Nick Weglarz	0
7 Hector Rondon	0
8 Carlos Carrasco	0.6
9 Alex White	0
10 Jason Kipnis	0
Total	1.9

The 2010 Indians featured: Carlos Santana (#10 overall), Lonnie Chisenhall (#31), Nick Hagadone (#44), and Jason Knapp ((#64). I look at this top 10 and all I can think is "Carlos Santana for Casey Blake!?" To be brutally honest, to trade CC Sabbathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in the past couple of years and not have more talent at the big league and minor league levels is disappointing. The 2010 Indians won 69 games.

Well, that was a lot of information. I'll let you all chew on that for awhile and then I'll be back next week with my conclusion. I'll try to synthesize some of this and figure what we can and can't expect from our farm system in the coming years.

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Comments

good stuff

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Oct 22, 2010 9:46 PM EDT reply actions

great, epic stuff

just eyeballing the data, it appears that the teams get somewhere around 5 WAR in year 1, 5-10 in year 2, and 10-15 in year 3 on average…applying this to the royals, that means in order to get to 90 wins, we’re about 38 short this year, 33 in 2012, and around 25-30 in year 3…frankly, i find it hard to identify enough existing players to get us anywhere close to that number, which means there are going to have to be some good FA signings and/or trades in the near future.

i also think its instructive to look at the breakdown of the players: you generally see 1-2 studs (5 WAR+), a couple of league-average types, and a whole bunch of zeros…so, like i’ve been saying, there are still a whole bunch of holes that this team is going to have to fill going forward, a pretty daunting task.

i would think the scenario we would be hoping for would be the Reds’: two studs, one above-average player, and a couple of average players out of our current top 10.

one additional thing i’d like to see is the WAR received by these teams in trades for the players on the list-for example, for the rays, you take out delmon young’s WAR but add in Garza’s and Bartlett’s combined WAR for the same period…i think this would give the truest measure of what the prospects “produced” in value for the team…it might make the tables too unwieldy, i don’t know, but i would think it would be interesting.

thanks for posting this!

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 22, 2010 11:42 PM EDT reply actions

agreed....needs to be rec'd about 15 more times

That’s a lot of hard (but fun, I’m sure) work. And knowlidges.

Like a weapon labeled "very stupid weapon, do not use." - BabyBlues

by Crooow on Oct 23, 2010 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions

If you put in WAR values that trades brought back I think it will skew the tables for what we want

We’re looking at how good we can expect what we have to be in the future. We’re not predicting trades. Besides, I don’t know if I would trust DM to trade one of our top prospects. We’d probably get another Yuni.

by AxDxMx on Oct 23, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

that's a good point

we don’t know what trades (if any) will happen, but it is instructive to see what the total return on the farm system is, whether it comes from home-grown talent or trades…in fact, i think it goes to show how vital it is to leverage those assets into useful pieces for the overall roster.

as far as trusting DM, I don’t think we really have much choice…i feel pretty confident that our farm system, as currently constituted, is not going to provide us with a competitive team unless we leverage some of those pieces into other/more pieces that we need.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 23, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

looking at the trade would be interesting—but it becomes extremely complicated- a top 10 prospect may be traded with a major leaguer, etc. If somebody wants to put that together, great, but it’s not a project I can tackle.

by nwroyal on Oct 23, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Love the hard work

Very informative, was amazed to see the WAR that Cincy put up this year. Should be good for several years, like you said.

I loathe David Glass

by RoyalJHWKR on Oct 23, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions

To trade CC Sabbathia, Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez and not have more talent at the big league and minor league levels is disappointing

Unless you’re a Royals fan…

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Oct 23, 2010 4:19 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Great stuff, by the way

batter nine you sucky

by marbotty on Oct 23, 2010 4:19 AM EDT reply actions

So if we end up with 15 WAR from our guys in 3 years

And have a WAR around 1.0 from the rest of the team, we end up with 97 wins?

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Oct 23, 2010 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

in my conclusion to this miniseries

I will touch on what we can expect from our prospects and then what we need to have from the rest of the team to be competitive.

by nwroyal on Oct 23, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins had 50.5 WAR this year.

Assuming the same is needed in 2013, if we get 15-20 from our prospects, then we need 30-35 from the rest of the team. I’m hoping our top 10 is comparable to the D-backs 2007, Cincy 2008, Rockies ‘07, and Rays 2008. Here’s the thing about our prospect list though. We are sort of expecting guys outside the top 10 to be significant contributors like Johnny G for example.

In 2013, it’s pretty much only Butler that might be around, everyone else will be gone. I could see maybe Kila, but not if Hosmer is producing. So you’re looking at

C: Pina/Perez/?
1B/DH: Butler/Hosmer
2B: Johnny G (a top 10 outsider that will produce value, or Bianchi)
SS: Colon (another top 10 outsider)
3B: Moustakas
OF: Wil Myers/Dyson/DRob/Orlando/???

SP: Monty/Lamb/Dwyer/Duffy/Crow/Sample/Melville/Yambati/Ventura
RP: leftovers from failed starters and minors
CP: Soria

I see 2 players on that team that will command large money. Soria’s option for $8M, and Billy makes something like $12M(?) in his 3rd Arb year, while Arguelles is guaranteed some money too (1.4M). So we’re looking at the minimum or close for everyone else. 23*$450k = $10.4M. So total payroll looks like $30-35M in 2013 assuming DM doesn’t start signing JoGui-like free agents. That leaves roughly $40M the club should be able to spend on filling the gaps that aren’t filled by the players listed above, and bringing in stud free agents. Hell, we could keep Greinke for $20M per year on a 2-3 year contract. That still leaves a spendable $20M to fill other gaps. I think the future looks extremely bright.

by AxDxMx on Oct 23, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

You are looking at the glass half full! :)

I like it. Theriot might be the other catcher on that list. Salvador Perez and Ben Theriot. Travis Jones could be there. He’s under the radar. Kevin David or whatever the first names guy is and Cornstubble…. they all have a chance. And maybe Vance Wilson!

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Oct 23, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Glass half full? Maybe.

At this point we have a healthy farm system and within 3 years, I would hope that it would be able to fill our team with at a bare minimum, players that are slightly above replacement. And the whole point of it was that even if these prospects don’t pan out, as long as a good chunk of them do, we can buy the extra players needed. Will this team be anywhere near 50 WAR? Doubtful, but they’ll be better than what we currently have, and if not, at least this is a team I would like to watch while they lose 100.

by AxDxMx on Oct 24, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Why are you listing Wil Myers

amongst the outfielders?

Isn’t the party line that he’s staying behind the plate?

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Oct 24, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions

He started taking balls in the OF this week.

But he will start the year as a catcher.

I think he’ll probably be moved before too long. The Royals actually have some decent catching prospects, and Myers isn’t that good back there.

by AxDxMx on Oct 24, 2010 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, so for 2012, this is what I figure

I’m going to take my best WAG at what the Royals, with no other moves, would have as far as WAR…if there are clear open spots, i’m going to leave them open, so we can see what we are going to need. I am also going to take my best guess at what I think will happen with our minor leaguers that make it, based on the history of #1 farm systems as presented above:

C Pena 1.0
1B Butler 4.0
2B Aviles 2.0
SS Betancourt 1.0
3B Moustakas 2.0
LF Gordon 0.5
CF TBD
RF TBD
DH Hosmer 4.0
Bench TBD
Bench TBD
Bench TBD
Bench TBD

SP Hochevar 2.0
SP Montgomery 3.0
SP Duffy 2.0
SP TBD
SP TBD

CL Soria 2.0
SU Tejeda 1.0
RP Collins 1.0
RP Hughes 0.5
RP Coleman 0.5
RP TBD 0.0
RP TBD 0.0

I have assumed that Greinke has been traded for purposes of this exercise. That’s 26.5 WAR and 6 spots to fill (excluding the last two relievers, who would probably be replacement-level in any case). To fill those spots, you would need two starting OF and two SP…assuming the bench guys combine for 2 WAR, you’re looking at 28.5 WAR. To get to 42 WAR (90 wins, assuming that 48 WAR is replacement level), you are going to need a combined 13.5 WAR from those four positions, or an average of about 3.4 WAR per player…you figure that maybe two of those spots are provided in return from the Greinke trade, and we pick up the other two as FA…it’s definitely doable, but a tall order in any case.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 23, 2010 11:00 PM EDT reply actions

If we're looking 2012

Wil Myers in the OF somewhere. Colon maybe already at SS or come up halfway through the year. Hosmer will be at 1B and Butler at DH. Does that change values any? You forgot Chen. He’s now a Royal for life.

Scouting the Royals
Royals Prospects

by 306008 on Oct 23, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

yes, but

the nature of prospects is such that many of them will not be successful…myers and colon are in A ball and i don’t think there’s any way we can count on them for 2012 (or at all, for that matter)…in my scenario, i have put 4 of our top 10 prospects on the team, all with at least league average WAR. i think that’s a pretty fair assessment of what will/could happen.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 23, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Either way, Yuni should be gone.

And Colon is supposed to be the sure thing. No one expects a star, but everyone expects a useful major leaguer. Sadly, it will probably be the future stars who fail.

by BrRoyal on Oct 24, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions

my bad

i thought Yuni’s contract went thru 2012, but it only goes through 2011 with a club option…still, the larger point is that not all of our guys are going to come up and be studs…maybe colon comes up and gives us 1 WAR, then we’re still in the same place as with Yuni.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Oct 24, 2010 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Indeed.

I get stuck on the details sometimes.

by BrRoyal on Oct 24, 2010 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course they won't all succeed.

In my look at 2013 above, it was meant to see what we could be possible, but at the same time anyone that doesn’t pan out can be easily replaced with the spare $40M DM will have laying around. That’s one of the advantages to taking this route with prospects. Throw a bunch at the wall, see who sticks, use your extra payroll money to buy players to fill the holes that weren’t filled by prospects.

And I think Gordon has to get it in gear by the ASB in 2011 or he may be traded to someone willing to give us a lottery ticket.

by AxDxMx on Oct 24, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

don't worry

he will dominate in 2011

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Oct 24, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Is it just me

Or do our prospects seem a lot younger than those prospects? I don’t know if I’d expect our guys to be providing value as soon as those prospects.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 25, 2010 9:58 AM EDT reply actions

The tables confirm what I’ve always kinda sensed—that prospects really begin to pay off in Year 3+. That’s why delaying arb until their fifth year in the majors is such a big deal.

So, while they may be here in in 2012 that’s likely not a competitive year.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Oct 25, 2010 12:03 PM EDT reply actions