What does having the #1 farm system mean? Conclusion
by nwroyal on Oct 30, 2010 10:38 AM EDT
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintWe finish up this little series by compiling the team numbers to get a range of what we can expect from our farm system in the coming years. We will then look at a couple of case studies to see how the Royals would need to supplement their Top 10 prospects to put together a team that could make the playoffs.
First, here are the #1 ranked farm systems for each year:
| Team |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
| 2001 White Sox |
1.8 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
10.5 |
6.2 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
| 2002 Cubs |
3.7 |
13.9 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
| 2003 Indians |
3.9 |
13.0 |
20.0 |
22.8 |
22.6 |
19.9 |
19.6 |
| 2004 Brewers |
0.3 |
1.8 |
3.6 |
17.6 |
13.2 |
10.6 |
16.5 |
| 2005 Angels |
3.0 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
11.5 |
14.6 |
4.0 |
-- |
| 2006 D-Backs |
2.7 |
2.9 |
13.3 |
7.3 |
13.6 |
-- |
-- |
| 2007 Rays |
-0.1 |
4.1 |
13.3 |
12.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Rays |
4.8 |
14.1 |
15.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2009 Rangers |
6.4 |
5.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2010 Rays |
2.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Average |
2.9 |
7.0 |
10.4 |
13.0 |
12.6 |
9.2 |
12.1 |
Now here are the #1's for the last ten years and numbers 1-3 included for the last five:
| Team |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
Year 6 |
Year 7 |
| 2001 White Sox |
1.8 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
10.5 |
6.2 |
7.9 |
8.6 |
| 2002 Cubs |
3.7 |
13.9 |
9.1 |
9.0 |
5.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
| 2003 Indians |
3.9 |
13.0 |
20.0 |
22.8 |
22.6 |
19.9 |
19.6 |
| 2004 Brewers |
0.3 |
1.8 |
3.6 |
17.6 |
13.2 |
10.6 |
16.5 |
|
2005 Angels |
3.0 |
3.7 |
5.0 |
11.5 |
14.6 |
4.0 |
-- |
| 2006 D-Backs |
2.7 |
2.9 |
13.3 |
7.3 |
13.6 |
-- |
-- |
| 2006 Dodgers |
4.3 |
12.4 |
14.4 |
15.7 |
7.4 |
-- |
-- |
| 2006 Marlins |
6.6 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
8.9 |
10.7 |
-- |
-- |
| 2007 Rays |
-0.1 |
4.1 |
13.3 |
12.6 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2007 Rockies |
8.5 |
9.8 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2007 D-Backs |
4.1 |
9.5 |
21.1 |
21.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Rays |
4.8 |
14.1 |
15.0 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Red Sox |
7.7 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2008 Reds |
5.8 |
11.3 |
20.8 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2009 Rangers |
6.4 |
5.7 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2009 Marlins |
4.6 |
7.4 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2009 A's |
5.6 |
8.1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2010 Rays |
2.5 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2010 Rangers |
1.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| 2010 Indians |
1.9 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Total |
4.0 |
7.8 |
12.2 |
14.1 |
11.7 |
9.2 |
12.1 |
It's interesting that the numbers actually start to trend up a little bit in the second chart from the first. Two possible reasons come to mind. First it could be, as I mentioned in an earlier article, I think prospect evaluation has gotten better in the past several years. Second, there has been a lot of really good talent to come along.
In looking at some of the playoff teams this year, a team needs (depending on luck and how good the division is) about 45-50 WAR to make the playoffs. One thing I didn't hit on in the series is that the 2010 Reds, for example, got 20.8 WAR from their 2008 Top Ten but they also got additional WAR from players either outside the Top 10 or added to the system later. Here's a list of other players who contributed in 2010 who were in the Cincinnati farm system:
Travis Wood--2.2 WAR
Ryan Hanigan--2.2 WAR
Chris Heisey--1.3 WAR
Mike Leake--1.1 WAR
Paul Janish--1.0 WAR
Aroldis Chapman--0.7 WAR
Total: 8.5 WAR
(and their are a bunch of guys who had fractional +/- WAR but I won't got into all that)
Let's do the same thing with this year's Tampa Rays team--players not on the 2007 Top 10:
David Price--4.3 WAR
James Shields--2.2 WAR*
John Jaso--2.5 WAR
Total: 9.0 WAR
*Shields had been up for half of 2006 so he could be excluded if you want to be strict
One more, let's look at the 2010 Rockies from players outside their 2007 Top Ten (I know the Rockies didn't make the playoffs but I see them as a good example for the Royals to aim for:
Jhoulys Chacin--3.0 WAR
Seth Smith--1.7 WAR
Esmil Rogers--1.4 WAR
Jonathan Herrera--0.7 WAR
Manny Corpas--0.4 WAR
Total: 7.2 WAR
So what can Royals fans hope for from their farm system in the coming years? Get ready for a bunch of assumptions as I will try to sketch what it would need to look like for the Royals to be a playoff worthy team (45-50 WAR). The best case scenario is that by 2013 or 2014 the Royals Top 10 matches with some of the best teams listed above and they are putting out 20 WAR a year from 6 players on their Top 10 list. And let's also assume that we have 4 other players--either outside the Top 10 or perhaps from the 2011 draft who add another 7 WAR a year. That brings us to 10 players/27 WAR and we'll estimate the salary for those players at $7 million.
Perhaps the Royals can put out a $75 million payroll for this team. The Royals would have $68 million to spend on 15 players who would need to find around 18-23 WAR to think about making the playoffs. Some of that WAR could come from players on the current roster: Greinke, Butler, Soria, Gordon, Hochevar, Dejesus, Aviles, and Kaaihue (those players totaled 16.7 WAR last year--but obviously predicting what they are going to do in 3 years in impossible and many of those names would need to resigned) or some of that WAR could come from trading those players. But clearly, signing some free agents is also going to be needed to supplement the prospects.
This wraps up our little series. I'm anticipating that the Royals Top 10 will be up there with the very best of the past decade when it comes to Top 25 and Top 50 Prospects. That is a good thing--and that is before a possible Greinke trade. My hope is that, as the prospects rankings roll in, we will have a little perspective as to what it means to the Royals going forward although I'm sure people are going to see what they want to see in this little exercise. Thanks for reading and I should start my Royals prospect rankings in a couple of weeks.
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Comments
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Andrew T. Fisher on Oct 31, 2010 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
and that is before a possible Greinke trade
I think we know that Greinke will be traded, the question is when. Sure, he may decide that the young Royals are worth sticking around for, but I really think he ends up somewhere else.
We'll take Greinke off of your hands for
Holland, Ramirez, Scott Feldman. OK go.
/sarcasm
by AfterSchoolSpecial on Oct 31, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Can Moore put together 15 players for 18-23 WAR?
I sure hope so. He’s had difficulty doing that. I’m not optimistic. This organization needs a new GM.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
For the 2010 Royals, the 35 or so players acquired by Dayton Moore produced 10.1 WAR
Position Players: +5.6 WAR (most notably Betemit 1.3, Callaspo 1.2)
Pitchers: +4.5 WAR (most notably Soria 2.1, Davies 2.0, Chen 1.3)
Eyeballing the other years, they look about the same — even in 2008 when Meche posted 5.0 WAR and Soria, Bannister, Ramirez, and Davies were between 1.5 and 1.9 WAR, it looks like they only posted about +13.5 WAR.
In a little over four full years on the job, Moore has acquired well over 100 players (excluding draft picks and amateur singings) and spent something like $100 million on them (excluding talent surrendered in trades). Only six of those players have posed a 2.0 WAR or better: Meche (4.4 in 2007 and 5.0 in 2008), Soria (2.4 in 2007 and 2.1 in 2010), Bannister (2.4 in 2007 and 2.9 in 2009), Callaspo (2.3 in 2009), Olivo (2.0 in 2009), and Davies (2.0 in 2010). Meche is the only one to post 3.0+ WAR.
Moore gets the credit for building the farm system, but, good grief, he is not the guy you want building a major league roster around the prospects.
by Gopherballs on Oct 29, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
All a GM really needs to do well is draft and develop. With a great
farm system, Moore really won't need to do much with the big league club.
I hope these fallacies have been put to rest, but I fear they haven’t. Moore will need to surround our successful prospects with 20+ WAR in 15 players, when he hasn’t been able to manage 15 WAR by 25 players.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Resigning or trading Greinke and DDJ should help get us part way to 20 WAR
Same with the other players nwroyal mentioned
He does need to stop acquiring more Ankiels and start acquiring more Betemits though
It will be interesting to see
How much the negative WAR of the other players Dayton acquires eats into the positive WAR of the great players he drafted.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Bingo!
That has been one of the biggest problems with KC’s GMs over the past two decades – It’s not just that they were poor at acquiring positive WAR players at market or below rates, but also that they often acquired negative WAR players, and often overpaid them to boot. That HAS to stop, or this wonderful farm system will go for naught.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
by loyal2sdad on Oct 29, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Slight correction
That HAS to stop, orthis wonderful farm system will go for naught unless a new GM is brough in who can put together a decent major league roster.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Oct 29, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So, basically, what we're arguing is that...
…Dayton Moore will need to be canned no later than, say, 2013, in order for our organization to effectively buy a reasonable window for success. I’m assuming a couple things:
- All of our current farmhands arrive no later than 2012
- It usually takes a new (good) G.M. no later than 2 years to really turn things around (and this is ambitious…I’m thinking Friedman territory here)
David Glass has been notoriously defiant when it comes to making necessary changes…and often when he does begrudgingly make those changes, they come too later.
So, basically, somebody needs to start a rumor of a scandal involving our G.M. to ensure Glass might act sooner. Any ideas?
Seriously, though, I think DM is a goner no earlier than mid-2014. By then, it could be too late.
by Royals Nation on Oct 29, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Jacobs objects to this comment.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 29, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Really good series nwroyal
I’ve been occupied with other stuff, so I haven’t been so involved with the discussions around this, but these have all been well-done. I’ve been meaning for a while to do a less “formal” discussion of how far good drafting/development can go on its own, and probably stil will (although more generally, not just about #1 farms systems or the Royals). Everyone agrees that a good farm system is necessary for most teams (and no teams are good without some significant contributions from their system), but obviously the question is how far it can take you. The Royals have a lot of hope in their system, but clearly they’re going to have to figure out how/when to trade veterans for a Carlos Gonzalez, or find their own Andres Torres/Aubrey Huff types. There been precious few signs of that so far (Wilson Betemit was nice, but he isn’t even close), but hey, Dan O’Dowd eventually figured it out (sort of), or failing that, we can always hope for get a couple Yahtzees in a row a la Sabean.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Thanks
And I agree about finding the right other players. Going into the series my biggest question for the future was “what can we expect from the minors?” Now my biggest question is: “who is going to supplement the kids?” The teams I mentioned above (the Reds, Rockies and Rays) all had some very good players in addition to their own prospects (Reds had Rolen and Phillips, Rockies picked up CarGo, and the Rays had Crawford and Zobrist among others.
the rays drafted crawford....
maybe you’re thinking pena, or garza, etc
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 30, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
They did draft Crawford
I was just referring to the fact that he was already established by 2007 when the Rays farm system was ranked #1
The Royals have Butler, Soria, Greinke, and DDj, and maybe Gordon (if he dominates) already established. Is that not a good enough? Add Moustakas, Hosmer, Myers, Montgomery, Lamb, Collins, and Coleman and I think you have a pretty good team.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Nov 1, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
If we are aiming for 2013-14
Soria is signed through 2014, Butler and Gordon will be free agents after ’13, Greinke after ’12 and DDJ after ’11. Some of those players will be gone and others will be getting old. As you mentioned, we have some talent—but we may need to convert some of it into younger players.
Great series NW.
Perhaps this info will temper some the optimism about this farm system’s ability to make the MLB team great. It is only a piece of the puzzle in building a competitive franchise. I am far from being one of the ‘rose colored glasses’ fans but, perhaps because of the team PR this year or the utter lack of anything worthwhile happening at the ML level, I have found myself being unrealistically enthusiastic about the impact that these players may have on the fortunes of the Royals. I guess, in short, I’m saying I agree with Zack.
I'll keep my optimism; it was already tempered.
If I temper it anymore, I’ll shrivel into a depressed sports shell.
Good job, NW.
Just want to echo what others have said
Excellent set!
Great series.
I would also suggest another way to look at the team WAR numbers…
Assuming it takes 45 WAR to make the post-season (the four AL postseason teams averaged 46.025 in 2010), the Royals fell about 20 WAR short this year (i.e. 2010 Royals WAR was at 25.8). So that’s what we need to add to our current roster.
Looking at the recent past, you could generate that much WAR within a couple of years by graduating a few monster-good prospects. Mauer, Fielder and Longoria would have combined for that kind of value if they have come up together on the same team.
So, assuming that “Myers, Hosmer and Moustakas = Mauer, Fielder and Longoria,” it’s time to start planning the Plaza Parade.
I am sorry nwroyal
I linked up the article at few places, Neyer linked it up, but gave me credit. Let me see if I can get it changed.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/6109/monday-mendozas-73
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I just think it's cool Neyer linked to it
no worries
I still feel bad, I know he has been emailed directly to his personal account, so we will see.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 2, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Dyson, 160 lbs, 5'9", great arm, track star...
shortstop?
Go Royals!
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