Negative WAR and the Royals - Results
by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2010 5:43 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintHere are the results of the survey at this point:
| Category | Bloomquist | Marte | Lerew | Chavez | May | O'Sullivan | Thompson | Meche | Gordon | Wood | Getz |
| Unknown | 5% | 3% | 5% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 9% | 7% |
| Player Under Performed (injury related) | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 90% | 24% | 3% | 8% |
| Player Under Performed (not injury related) | 4% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 1% | 25% | 17% | 1% | 59% | 17% | 18% |
| Played because of injury to someone else. | 4% | 13% | 35% | 0% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| Team incorrectly evaluated player's talent | 71% | 35% | 15% | 40% | 6% | 18% | 24% | 3% | 6% | 20% | 48% |
| Team correctly evaluates that player's talent but doesn't care | 15% | 11% | 15% | 12% | 0% | 11% | 16% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 14% |
| Player used at end of season when team was out of contention | 0% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 4% | 1% |
| Rookie called up to majors for team to evaluate | 1% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 53% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 39% | 3% |
| Cup of Joe | 0% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% |
I was going to see how the WAR was allocated to the various categories. Everyone had one category take the lead except for O'Sullivan and Thompson. I will give partial weighting to the top 2 to categories. The final WAR is allocated as follows.
| Reason | WAR | Percent |
| Player Under Performed (injury related) | -0.18 | 5% |
| Player Under Performed (not injury related) | -0.25 | 7% |
| Played because of injury to someone else. | -0.50 | 15% |
| Team incorrectly evaluated player's talent | -1.98 | 58% |
| Rookie called up to majors for team to evaluate | -0.50 | 15% |
The results imply that we think Dayton can not evaluate a player's talent correctly. The results don't surprise me, but I think the key will be looking at past years data. Sorry, but probably there are more polls to come -or- I will just make the calls myself and see if people here agree in a story.
Yesterday, I published an article on the negative WAR generated by each team. The Royals actually did fairly decent compared to past years by being in the middle of the pack at ~ -3.5 WAR. I am wanting to take this one step further and look into why these players were allowed to produce at below replacement level.
| Name | 2010 WAR |
| Willie Bloomquist | -0.71 |
| Victor Marte | -0.59 |
| Anthony Lerew | -0.50 |
| Jesse Chavez | -0.32 |
| Lucas May | -0.27 |
| Sean O'Sullivan | -0.23 |
| Brad Thompson | -0.20 |
| Gil Meche | -0.18 |
| Alex Gordon | -0.17 |
| Blake Wood | -0.15 |
| Chris Getz | -0.08 |
I plan on doing this poll for all teams to get a better idea on how team develop talent, but I am starting here with the Royals. I may go back soon and look at past season also to see how Management has changed. Could you please vote for the reason for each of the players after the jump?
I am trying to find a way with Google Docs to publish the data real time, but haven't found an easy way yet.
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Comments
I have a feeling that several candidates will end up with the
“Team incorrectly evaluated players talents” option with a few “injury” and possible some “rookie” options as well
Or everyone gets a cup of joe
Fangraphs Article
I liked it. I also think it shows that DM’s quest to have “real major leaguers” on the roster has not been entirely in vain. We’re in the middle of the pack for the negative WAR vampires. I am 100 percent certain that if you did the same analysis on the 2006 squad we would have been at the bottom.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 18, 2010 12:13 PM EST reply actions
It hasn't been pretty in the past.
2009 numbers (#2)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/11/3/1112348/negative-team-war-2009-edition
2004 to 2009 (#1)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/28/880414/accumulated-negative-team-war
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
correction
2004 to 2008 (#1)
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
What those charts say to me
or rather scream, is that the Brewers need pitching. I guess you could say DM the other GM loves old pitchers – or something like that.
Agreed. I can't help but think that it played a huge part in him being just below replacement value.
Wondering where we will get our grit in 2011.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Nov 18, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I may have missed this
but where was Luis Mendoza on this list?
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
On Bloomquist – WAR doesn’t correctly evaluate players who play multiple positions because player flexibility (which has value due to the limited number of roster spots) isn’t taken into account.
by WURoyal on Nov 18, 2010 1:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I think he has some value in that, but as a sub. We too many starts for Willie Ballgame
He should have never started on game in CF last last season.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
I'm actually ENCOURAGED by this report!
Just look at 2008 and 2009. Definitely a major improvement on the part of the organization, and Moore gets credit for that.
This has been one of my biggest complaints the last decade or so – the inability to recognize and replace players performing below replacement level. I have to admit I’m surprised – because the common perception on RR is that Moore doesn’t understand the replacement level concept well enough. This report shows that perhaps he does!
By the way – to me, this calculation has very little to do with the overall talent level of an organization, rather, it has much moore to do with the GM’s ability to understand this basic sabernomic principal. So, to me, that means Moore has improved, at least on this one aspect of his duties.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
You nerds need to watch the games with your eyeballs...
Because I’ve seen Willie Bloomquist play, and there is nothing negative about his game…
Thats like saying: "Sure you didn’t get a hummer from Jessica Alba, but at least you got anally raped from Shaquille O’neil" --- Craig in Calgary
Look at the grit fly off of him as he dives for the ball in the above image
One a side note. I am doing a 400 word writeup on Willie’s fantasy value. He has be the hardest to do so far. It is impossible to say that he sucks without repeating myself.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 18, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Just talk about he is a complimentary player
And should be used sparingly unlike the Royals in the 2009 season.
"He has no value because he sucks"
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You’re welcome.
Unless I'm wrong...
How about a
Player under performed (coaching related)
by 306008 on Nov 18, 2010 4:15 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
WAR is always negative
Just my opinion.
"Shot by my own men."
WAR, what is it good for?
Absolutely nuthin’.
by AxDxMx on Nov 19, 2010 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Suggestion
I’d combine crowdsourcing and expert judgment; I found the long list of reasons confusing.
Go through the list and determine what you think is the reason. If you think there is a case between multiple issues, identify all of them. Then have the survey with each of those reasons and “None of These” as responses.
Use the crowd to evaluate your evaluations. If they concur, go ahead. If not, either divide the WAR between reasons or have a specific thread to discuss.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 19, 2010 9:27 AM EST reply actions
Good idea.
pick may top 4 and then let other choose. I found my opinion differed from the results. Some like Meche are obvious, Thompson was a mess as seen by 14% of the people voting unknown.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 19, 2010 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Is it possible to add checkboxes rather than dropdowns?
So, say you could pick Player Under Performed (not injury related) + Team incorrectly evaluated player’s talent for someone like Getz.
Unless I'm wrong...
yes, i had it that way to begin with
Tracking it is a pain. I pretty much have to go through each record.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 19, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Conclusion
The results imply that we think Dayton can not evaluate a player’s talent correctly.
There’s a great deal of data supporting this conclusion.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 19, 2010 9:33 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
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