Will Greinke Get Any Down-Ballot American League Cy Young Votes?

by Freneau on Nov 18, 2010 11:32 AM EST in Kansas City Royals News

The American League Cy Young Award Winners will be announced this afternoon. Much of the drama surrounds the case of Felix Hernandez and whether someone can win with an unimpressive W-L record. The voting, however, promises to be interesting in a number of ways. For instance, I'm not really hearing much buzz about Justin Verlander from the saber community, but there he is, with the second highest WAR in the AL. Second, notably, not to Felix but to Cliff Lee.

As a Royals fan, I'll be watching to see if Zack Greinke gets any down-ballot votes. This year, the Cy Young ballot expanded. In the past, there were only 1-2-3 votes. This year, it's gone to 1-2-3-4-5. In the dying days of the 2010 season I made the case that Zack deserved some 5th place votes.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2010 - Zack Greinke	10-14	33	33	3	0	0	0	220.0	219	114	102	18	55	181	4.17	1.25

Basically, Zack, Jon Lester and Jered Weaver are all in the same range: clearly a tick behind the big four at the top of the ballot, clearly actually better than Sabathia. Of course, Jon Lester beat cancer and Jered Weaver beat being a Weaver, so who knows if there will be any juice left for Greinke.

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Greinke is perceived as having a down year

Which makes dumb people overlook the fact that he still had a very, very good season.

I’d be surprised if he gets any votes, Tim Lincecum had almost the same WAR and got tiny down ballot support and he had the advantage of a sub 3.5 ERA and 16 wins.

A number of clearly inferior pitchers will get votes though, sadly.

by kcbottom9th on Nov 18, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions

yeah, I'm not going to get my hopes up

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by AtTheWall on Nov 18, 2010 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Who would vote for him?

The only writers likely to vote for Greinke are ones with a pretty heavy saber bent, and Greinke finished 9th in xFIP behind Ricky Romero and James Shields.

Maybe if you have the perfect storm of homer and stats-minded writer like Joe Posnanski, you sneak out some kind of vote, but i just don’t see that happening. Even Sabathia, who lags behind Greinke slightly in xFIP, was actually more valuable because of innings thrown.

by sumajestad on Nov 18, 2010 11:58 AM EST reply actions

Not a chance

Losing record and an ERA over 4.00. There just aren’t many sportswriters who can overlook that.

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by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2010 12:06 PM EST reply actions

Doubtful

Not convinved he really deserves to many votes either. He still had a good season though.

by Boots 58 on Nov 18, 2010 12:15 PM EST reply actions

I can't see anyone with an ERA over 4

being voted as one of the top pitchers in the league.

Especially since the award is not limited to starters. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Joakim Soria get some votes from 3rd on down. Cy Young voters like lights-out closers, and the Mexicutioner pretty much was one all season.

And also, C’mon, Chen!!

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Nov 18, 2010 12:19 PM EST reply actions

I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Joakim Soria get some votes from 3rd on down

Very prescient!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Nov 18, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

Zack has little chance of a vote, unless a KC voter pulls a Kovacevic

Felix, Lee, Liriano, Verlander, Weaver, and Lester are most deserving of votes. Greinke had a good year, but he was a notch below Weaver and Lester due to his decrease in Ks (and much fewer groundballs than Lester).

As for actual voting, Felix (who will win), Sabathia, Price, and Lee should get the vast majority of votes, followed by Lester, Weaver, and Verlander, and then some random votes for Liriano, Buchholz’s and Cahill’s shiny ERAs, CJ Wilson, and whomever lead the league in saves and maybe a couple other closers — I suppose Mariano Rivera has to get at lest one vote every year.

Actually, with the way this works, I would guess Soria has a better chance of getting an actual vote than Greinke.

by Gopherballs on Nov 18, 2010 12:50 PM EST reply actions

I would be shocked.

His advanced stats might put him within sniffing distance of the top 5, but even those who look at those should leave him off. For one thing, his BABIP (.314) was normal.

I’d encourage people to differentiate between what WAR they are referencing, particularly when it comes to pitchers – Fangraphs has Greinke seventh in the AL with 5.2 WAR, but Rally/B-R has him 38th with 2.4 WAR.

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by KCAaron on Nov 18, 2010 1:23 PM EST reply actions