Royals 2011 ZiPS posted
Happy Real Thankgiving.
Gotta love Dan's way with words (even if MS Paint Billy is absent):
"What the Royals do have is an amazing farm system, up-and-down, there are a number of potential stars, starters, and even an impressive slate of guys who should be solid role players. The biggest question facing the Royals in the near future is how Moore will handle transitioning these players into major league roles. For example, Mike Montgomery or John Lamb are likely to force their way into the rotation, but what happens to the players that can contribute but whose impact in the majors is less than utterly and completely obvious? Butler and Greinke were treated well by the organization, but Moore's management style towards non-stars under 30 seems to be best described as hostile indifference. So in recent years, there's been a situation in which useful players like Ka'aihue, Aviles, Gordon, Maier, and others are just kind of "hanging around." Sure, they'll keep getting at-bats when they play well, but they're always bad road trip from being benched and their opportunities never seem to follow any logical train-of-thought derived from the organizations strengths or weaknesses. So you end up with situations in which Willie Bloomquist ends up being a starting corner outfielder because Moore's played Sgt. Schulz with talent, despite corner outfielders better than Bloomquist being easier to find than abandoned houses in Detroit."
After the BLF goes to sleep, I'll spend some more time looking at these and converting into wOBA/FIP/WAR/etc. and convincing myself that people care.
over 1 year ago
Matt Klaassen
41 comments
1 recs |
Email
PrintComments
i care
looking forward to seeing it…happy thanksgiving BTW…
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 25, 2010 12:19 PM EST reply actions
Man... That predicted .295 OBP for Moose is BRUTAL
Thats like saying: "Sure you didn’t get a hummer from Jessica Alba, but at least you got anally raped from Shaquille O’neil" --- Craig in Calgary
Also...
I find Kendal’s 2 closest comps of Brad Ausmus and Tony Pena HILARIOUS!
and the Tim Collins comp to John Rocker
Thats like saying: "Sure you didn’t get a hummer from Jessica Alba, but at least you got anally raped from Shaquille O’neil" --- Craig in Calgary
by averagegatsby on Nov 25, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t get too worked up one way or the other about projections of young guys who haven’t played much above AA. Interesting, but there are huge error bars there.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 25, 2010 12:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
And I get that...
But to actually see a number like that in print still sucks
Thats like saying: "Sure you didn’t get a hummer from Jessica Alba, but at least you got anally raped from Shaquille O’neil" --- Craig in Calgary
by averagegatsby on Nov 25, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Hosmer and Myers projections are encouraging considering their age
and really, Moose’s too — most of his value is going to come from his power (and hopefully sticking at 3B), not his OBP.
What’s holding his projection down a bit is:
- He’s an extremely aggressive hitter (not every guy walks a ton but 8 walks in 236 PA in AAA suggest that he’d have some initial problems in the majors).
- Even though previous years are less significant for very young players, 2009 was pretty weak .
by D.Szymborski on Nov 25, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
Vin Mazzaro with a projected ERA under 5.00!
suck it, haters
Because he is clearly a ML pitcher
And hasn’t signed anywhere since the Royals cut him. He has to go somewhere.
Because the Royals are the last MLB team he played for?
Hell, the Royals are still paying him.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 25, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions
Some wOBAs
I guess I ended up doing most (but not all) of these. Name, wOBA, then linear weights runs created above/below average per 700 PA. I assumed 2010’s run environment for league average, but I don’t have 2010’s weights yet, so I used 2009’s. Shouldn’t be too much of a difference. Usual stuff about these not being my projections, uncertainty (especially with MLEs).
Butler .368 26
Kila .342 11
Aviles .322 0
Betemit .333 6
Gordon .329 4
Hosmer .324 0
Getz .318 -3
Moose .315 -5
Myers .319 -2
Tim Smith .306 -10
Guido .310 -7
BPJ .307 -9
Fields .310 -7
MITCH .307 -9
Clint .303 -12
Lough .298 -15
Yuni .297 -15
Blanco .301 -13
Luke May .289 -19
Arias .275 -28
JaROD .276 -27
Paulo .270 -31
Drob .275 -28
Kendall .278 -26
Zawadzki .278 -26
Manny Pina .273 -29
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
A few comments, assuming these projections are on
If Kila is really a +11 hitter, he can hang in as around a league average 1B… if his defense is average.
Butler at +26 is good enough to DH full-time if he has too, even if his power doesn’t get any better than this (there’s still time).
Hosmer and Myers are scary given their ages, although it’s based stuff a ways from the majors. Moustakas power is there, but we need to hope age teaches him to walk at least somewhat better.
The Getz projection might look rosy, but if it is close, there’s no question he and Aviles should be the starting 2b/SS this season, even if Yuni might be above replacement level (Yuni at -7 defensively is a bench player, Yuni at -15 defensively shouldn’t be in the majors).
I’m glad Jason Kendall is keeping the seat warm for a worthy heir like Manny Pina.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 25, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
hos and moose
do you mean scary good (i’m hoping)
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Nov 25, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think Hos and Myers look scary good
Moose is also exciting despite his issues, I’m just higher on Hosmer and Myers. That’s just me, though
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Nov 25, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions
Depressing
3 average wOBA’s there, 1 of whom is marginal and has a reinforced concrete glove and 1 of whom may not see much playing time.
Starters
I did something a little different here given the confusion on another thread. Since “going deep into the game” depends a fair bit on the pitcher’s skill, for standardized playing time I used 30 games, then multiplied that by their IP per start. Some guys are projected to both start and relieve (e.g., Mazzaro, SOS), and I initially made adjustments for that, but it was a mess, so I just went with their listed IP to figure out IP/GS, so their projected WAR/FIP look better than they are. So you can get what WAR you think they’ll produce by multiplying the listed WAR by [your estimated # of starts]/30.
So without getting into all the details, IP given 30 starts. I list FIP (scaled to slightly earlier this season; for WAR calc I scaled it to RA rather than ERA and park-adjust), then WAR based on that. Run to win conversion is “customized” for the way each pitcher effects his run environment. Don’t blame Dan for the way I used his numbers.
Numbers are IP, FIP, WAR
Greinke, 202 , 2.98, 5.9
Monty 141, 4.39,1.5
Meche 177, 4.41, 1.8
Hochevar 176, 4.16, 2.3
Campillo 184, 4.32, 2.1
Chen 171, 4.84, 1.0
Davies 167, 4.49, 1.6
Lamb 143,4.58, 1.2
Mazzaro 179, 4.76, 1.2
Duffy 146, 4.60, 1.2
SOS 167, 4.90, 0.9
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
But starting pitchers don't get 1 WAR
Ever. Just erase those. It doesn’t happen. You should go by BabyBlues assumption that if Mazzaro pitches like that, he’ll be in the bullpen or DFA’d by midseason. So you can cut his WAR in half (or less).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 25, 2010 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
So At .9
SOS is golden, right?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 25, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
BS
Pure BS.
Team at random: Detroit.
Armando Gallaraga, 0.9 WAR
Team at random, Seattle.
Doug Fister, 0.8 WAR
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 26, 2010 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
I think you may have missed a certain sarcastic tone in NYRoyal's response
A carry over from another thread.
by kcbottom9th on Nov 26, 2010 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
I neglected to use sarcasm tags
But it was pure sarcasm nonetheless. BabyBlues has been arguing vociferously that Mazzaro won’t be a 1 WAR pitcher for the Royals because there is no such thing as a 1 WAR starting pitcher. It just doesn’t happen. A guy who pitches at that level of mediocrity gets kicked out of the rotation before he has a chance to amass 1 WAR. So sayeth BabyBlues. I pointed out that there were 10 such players last year. He maintained that it just doesn’t happen. I pointed out that the Royals have no SP depth for 2011 and would likely stick with a 5.00 FIP pitcher for the whole season and thus get about 1 WAR. He maintained that it just doesn’t happen.
So I concluded that Mazzaro was most likely to get either 1 WAR if he stuck in the rotation the whole season or less than that if he were demoted to the bullpen at some point. So BabyBlues concluded that Mazzaro was going to get either about 0 or about 2 WAR next year. Those are the only two possibilities. Then I banged my head against a wall and abandoned the thread.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 26, 2010 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
You are much more patient in your old age
and you forgot the part about a 1 WAR pitcher is really worth 2 WAR.
It’s hard to argue with someone who vociferously contends that 1=2. I’ve given up.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 26, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
WAR is a counting stat, if a starting pitcher is healthy, then his WAR
will go up if he is above replacement level for each inning pitched. Because so many starting pitchers go down, and because there are so many 1 WAR pitchers who are replaced and so forth, 1 WAR pitchers can have 2 WAR seasons fairly easilly if they get a lot of innings. Even well below average pitchers can accumulate 2 WAR if they eat a lot of innings. If you get over the amount of innings that WAR is set for, you end up with more WAR. What is so complicated that you can’t understand that?
Go Royals!
yeah, no
A 1 WAR pitcher means he would be expected to post 1 WAR over an entire season (~180 innings for starters). Even if the 1 WAR pitcher pitches 200 innings instead of 180 innings, his WAR would only go up about 0.1, not anything close to 2 WAR.
An average starting pitcher does not get 180 innings, it is way less then that.
WAR is based on what the leauge does, all pitchers are rated at 180 yes, but a lot of them will never reach that, and most of them are better then our 1 WAR pitcher, but most of the replacements for those innings are replacement level, thus our 1 WAR pitcher becomes more valuable and goes up in the rankings and gains more WAR as he becomes a more average player due to attrition.
Go Royals!
Your understanding of how WAR works is simply incorrect
WAR is based on what the leauge does, all pitchers are rated at 180
I have no idea what you are trying to say here. WAR does not rate all pitchers at 180 innings. Fangraphs has a nice series explaining how WAR is calculated.
When someone refers to a player as “1 WAR” starter, they are describing what they would expect the starter to produce in a full season (~180 innings), but the WAR calculation is not based on any 180 inning standard. You are confusing how WAR is cacluated and how people use WAR as short-hand for describing a player’s talent level.
our 1 WAR pitcher becomes more valuable and goes up in the rankings and gains more WAR as he becomes a more average player due to attrition.
Again, this is incorrect. WAR is not based on some “rankings.” A player’s WAR does not go up because other pitchers get hurt or benched.
by Gopherballs on Nov 26, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Huge credit for sticking with this.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Agreed
I’m not saying that BabyBlues is stupid at all, but he’s been arguing vociferously about things like FIP and WAR while showing that he doesn’t really understand them. I admire Gopherballs’s tenacity. I ran out of gas.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 27, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I never said that.
You refuse to understand what I said, so I will try once again.
People were saying that Mizarro was only worth about 2 million a year beacuse he was only going to get 1 WAR every year he pitched and that WAR was based on a curve where people at 1 WAR were not worth 4 million a year because they were so common.
My argurments were that starting pitchers who AVERAGE 1 WAR do not throw five seasons IN A ROW!!! Pitchers that have a 1 WAR average have individual seasons that approach 2 WAR and others that approach 0 WAR. Therefore you can’t say that a pitcher with a 1 WAR AVERAGE will be worth only 2 million a year because how valauble a player is with WAR is from each INDIVIDUAL season added up, not his AVERAGE WAR multipled by the number of seasons he played. I also pointed out that no starting pitcher with a lot of innings has posted a WAR near 1 in the last two CONSECUTIVE years. Therefore if Mazzaro posted 5 seasons of 1 WAR in a ROW he would be the only one in baseball. You haven’t refuted anything I have said, you just keep misunderstaning my points.
Go Royals!
Speaking of things no one said
People were saying that Mizarro was only worth about 2 million a year beacuse he was only going to get 1 WAR every year he pitched and that WAR was based on a curve where people at 1 WAR were not worth 4 million a year because they were so common.
Yeah, no one said that “Mizarro was only worth about 2 million a year beacuse he was only going to get 1 WAR every year he pitched.” So to the extent your argument is that Mazzaro is not likely to post 5 consecutive seasons of exactly 1 WAR, you are arguing with nobody.
Mazzaro does project to be ~1 WAR pitcher (~4.75-5.00 FIP) over the course of a full season. Pitchers of similar talent (i.e., 1 WAR pitchers) are not difficult to find on the open market, so a team should be able to pay less than the standard $4 million per win for 1 WAR pitcher like Mazzaro.
And contrary to your suggestion in the other thread ("D-Backs give up a prospect before Duke could be sent on waivers so that they could make sure they could keep him for the arbitration cost over around 6 million, even as they are shopping Upton and look to not be in contention this year. If Mazzaro is good enough to be a 4th starter he is worth around 30 million for the next five years"), the fact that Arizona will reportedly non-tender Zach Duke (probably a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher) unless he signs for less than the $4 million shows that teams should be able to acquire 1 WAR pitchers for less than $4 million.
Interesting
Seems like a Lough/Fields platoon, according to those projections, might be worth doing in the corner OF. And it looks like a lot of average play across the board.
We're gonna suck big-time
With one good hitter, one good starter, one good reliever, and a bunch of replacement-to-average players, it’s going to be an ugly 2011. Let’s hope they use this season mostly as tryouts and practice for the minor leaguers.
Hey, Dayton, no free agents unless you can pick up Jon Garland cheap, or guys at the minimum salary.
I must say I’m underwhelmed by the projections, which project players who are out of the league, never going to make the league, or long gone from the Röyals. They seem to be not much more than wild guesses, unless the guy is an experienced MLB player.
"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947
The Only Reason
I’ve pushed Austin Kearns is he’s not Frogger, and he’s going to be fairly cheap and amenable to a one or two year deal. I’d be content to stand pat if I thought Moore would.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 26, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Royals Review
Related FanShots on Royals Review
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Please hold: Indians’ Joe Smith jumps the gun on relief appearance
- Local radio host honors Cubs’ Tony Campana with parody song
- Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
- Will Smith shows why making your big-league debut at Yankee Stadium is less than ideal
- Steinbrenners selling the Yankees? Family denies New York Daily News report
