Could 2011 Be Yuniesky Betancourt's Last Year With the Royals?
Yuniesky Betancourt's "breakout" year in 2010 took some heat off of the embattled Royals shortstop. I mean, anytime you get a .288 OBP out of a guy over 588 PAs, with horrible defense, you take it. No questions asked. And with a monstrous .400 slugging percentage fueled by a career spike in HR/FB %, you've got a true cornerstone.
Nevertheless, might 2011 be the final year Yuni-bomb spends with the Royals?
Betancourt is set to earn $4 million in 2011, which the Royals will no doubt happily pay. However, for 2012, the Royals hold a club option. They can either let Betancourt go, and pay a $2 million buyout, or bring him back in the doomsday/mythical year of contention for $6 million. In the past few seasons the Royals have been relatively stingy when it comes to bringing back players (more money for Farnsworths, Kendalls, Ankiels, etc.) so it might not be a lock that they bring back Yuni for $6 million. On the other hand, they'll have to pay him $2 million to part ways, so it's hard to say in what direction the cheapness might cut.
The other issue is whether or not the Royals can replace Yuni by 2012. Now, in reality, no-hit/all-field shortstops aren't hard to find, as evidenced by the Tony Pena Jr./Berroa trade. So that is certainly an option. However, the big question is whether or not Christian Colon, the 4th pick in the 2010 Draft, will be ready by 2012. Colon will be 23 in '12, which places him right on the cusp of being ready, on a generally optimistic timeframe. Quite obviously, Colon's performance in '11 will say much about whether the Royals might be ready to part ways with Yuni "he's done everything we've asked of him" Betancourt.
Aside from Colon, it's difficult to see a clear Yuni-heir. Omaha (the boring, non-hyped, generally non-interesting Royal farm team) primarily featured Irving Falu at SS. Falu is already 27 and has a 0.1 on the 10 point Royals prospects drool scale. At AA NWA, the shortstop of most use, was Chris McConnell. McConnell posted a .670 OPS, in his second year at AA, at the age of 24. So, there's really not more to say about him. (Actually there is. He's not even in the org anymore.) There's also Jeff Bianchi in the discussion, I guess, maybe Johnny Giavotella too, though both those guys are seemingly already 2Bs. After that, we're generally talking about players that are probably too young to be ready for 2012.
I began this post trying to talk myself into a Yuni-free 2012, but I'm not sure that's going to happen. That being said, Dayton Moore is one of the toughest GMs to predict in the game. Just look at the way shortstop has played out. We all thought Moore was an idiot for sticking with Berroa, until he traded for TPJ prior to the 2007 season. Then, Moore seemingly rode TPJ for a season past his expiration date, with no end in sight, before the Royals finally went in an Aviles-direction. When injuries took Aviles out of the equation, after experiencing a number of awesome alternatives, we began the Betancourt era. So who knows.
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for havnig the best system in the history of ever
the royals dont have a huge number of true position prospects right now that actually have a position other than 1b/dh/whatever Willlllllllll myers is
admitting that could change after we see what Colon does in 2011
but right now he’s just a draft pick and a name
Acquiring (by trade or claim) or drafting, DM has yet to prove he can evaluate or develop position players.
Moose, Hosmer, and Myers may change that evaluation if they succeed at the ML level. Moore clearly (I think) undervalues or misvalues defense, regardless of what he says: Yuni, Betemit, Ankiel, Pods, Kendall, etc. have all earned raves from the FO and yet have been mediocre at best, and disastrous at worst.
by Steve Hovley on Nov 28, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Why is Bianchi a 2B?
Giovatella is certainly a 2B, but I would think Bianchi would return to SS, if possible.
McConnel is gone. Reports from instructionals were that Alex McClure was really impressive with the glove and the bat. As far as other help, it’s a long way off.
But year, Colon or bust 2012!
Giavotella is hardly "certainly" a 2B
unless you mean that he “certainly” plays there a lot. Maybe he will be a 2B, but despite a decent bat, every report I’ve read mentions his problems in the field.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
Love the "breakout" reference
(acknowledging that it’s a sarcastic reference to the use of the term in reference to Betancourt by others) to a guy who was 0.6 WAR in 2010 according to FanGraphs. But maybe that’s unfair, and he “really” was the awesome 1.3 according to baseball-reference.
The funniest part about B-R is that it’s based Sean Smith’s implemention of the WAR frameowork, In August, Sean’s projection system say Betancourt as a -1.2 WAR player. I guess he can’t really be a -1.2 WAR player, or even replacement level player, because then the Royals would never have given him 588 PA….
Good thing, too, because if he really is the replacement level player all those wacky numbers indicate, then the Royals got screwed on the trade if they had send a box of pens to the Mariners rather than two iffy minor leaguers.
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I like the amount of position prospects they have. Add in the controllable players they have I think they are in solid shape.
1b- Butler, Hosmer, Kila, CRobinson
2b- Aviles, Giavotella, Getz
SS- Colon, Bianchi
3B- Moustakas
C- May, Pina, Pena, Perez
COF- Myers, Lough, Maier, Eibner
CF – Dyson, DRob
Add in a prospect or two from Greinke plus available cash and KC is looking good positionally. I think CF and C are the weakest as they probably have backups at both positions but Catcher a team can get away with playing a low level talent there and CF at least the prospects are plus defensively.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
That looks really thin up the middle
Colon and Giavotella both look like below average defenders at their positions, which is a problem. Bianchi is a fringe prospect all around. If you take Myers out of catcher consideration (as you did), then there are no good prospects for that position. The CF guys appear to be all-defense, no-hit players and certainly not top prospects.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 28, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions
As a combo yes that is weak defensively but many believe
Colon will convert over to 2b where he could be strong defensively.
Maybe Colon handles SS in his prime years and KC makes a move after that.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Colon and Bianchi are the future at SS for the Royals
If one of these two don’t work out, then it will be filling the holes with a trade or FA. SS might be one of the positions to trade the surplus minor league talent for an established player with past performance of success. IF the top shelf guys like Hosmer, Moustakas and Myers become All Star types, SS could be a position where league average is workable. Based on KC’s record of SS, I’d take league average in a heartbeat.
Are there any current SS's who will be FA's and 35-years-old in 2012?
If so, I could see Dayton going that way and replacing Yuni with a once good, but old and declining SS who is worth 1/6 but who Moore signs for 3/20. If no such player is out there, I could see Moore renegotiating Yuni’s contract so that he gets about $5M in 2012 with a mutual option for another $5M in 2013.
The immoderate moderator
I see Yuni back for 2012 unless Bianchi is an obvious choice over him after this year.
I don’t think Colon can handle shortstop defensively, but then again, still would be an defensive upgrade over the worst rated postion player, in major leauge baseball, for two seasons in a row.
Go Royals!
There will be SS who are non-tendered instead of FA
A player like JJ Hardy or Orlando Cabrera seem to be on the market frequently. 2012 is down the road – who knows might be available. Just don’t see KC holding onto Yuni past this season. He is a guy I’d like to see KC make a move and try to trade down the stretch. Yes, I know – who would want Yuni if you are a contender but someone might be desperate.
Who knows?
Maybe the Royals get desperate and try somebody else. I hear there’s this guy Aviles hanging around who used to play a little shortstop.
Feh.
by The Ol' Perfesser on Nov 28, 2010 10:58 PM EST reply actions
He's Not Quite
Old enough
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 28, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
The only baseball things you can really point to
that Aviles clearly does better than Betancourt are hitting, fielding, and baserunning.
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 28, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Too bad Aviles was born without hands
and hands
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
He Just Needs
To be told to react quicker to ground balls to his left and stop swinging at hot dog wrappers, flying insects and pickoff attempts.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 29, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
the way its lookin
might as well shop what we have left at the Major league level. i mean before you know Omaha wil explode into a good team with all of these great prospects
Several options (none of which involve picking up Yuni's option)
1) Aviles is the stopgap between Yuni and Colon in 2012, giving Colon the extra half-season or full season of additional develop time he may need
2) Get a ML ready shortstop when (if?) Greinke is moved (Too bad we didn’t target the kid from ATL and he ended up in Toronto)
3) Bite the bullet and trade one of the top pitching prospects for a young, GOOD shortstop
Unfortunately, the monkey in my wrench remains:
THE ROYALS ACTUALLY THINK YUNI IS GOOD.
Here’s where Glass’ cheapskate ways may actually be GOOD for a change – it forces Moore to dump Yuni.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Bianchi
I thought that Bianchi was a good hitting prospect- some pop in the bat (doubles and 10-15 homers) and some stolen bases, but an average foelder at SS. I think the potential is there, he just can’t stay healthy. No?
Really? No, not really.
Yeah, the injuries make it hard to take him seriously as a prospect
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 29, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
To be fair
He was (arguably) a fringe Top 10 prospect as recent as last year
I guess
But his performance on the field has been good but not great, and on top of that he’s usually injured. And, of course, since last year he’s had Tommy John surgery which has lost him one full season and will cut into next season. By the time he gets back to playing next year, he’ll be 24 in A-ball and rehabbing a reconstructed elbow. I have no optimism about him.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Nov 29, 2010 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
He'll only be in A ball because of Colon
Otherwise I think he’d be in AA ball like he was before his injury. The only knock on him (since being ranked that high), is his injury, so it’s not a certain decline in his baseball skills such as a drop in power, etc.
Agreed that he’s often injured, and that the injury will bite into this year. I have some optimism, as there is clearly some level of talent there, but he has been injured so often that it’s hard to think of him as a real prospect.
He had the surgery before spring training last year,
two months before Aviles had his, so there is a good chance he is ready to start the season right?
Go Royals!
Uribe
Would you rather have, say, a 31 year old Uribe on a 3/21 contract like he just signed?
by BlueEyes_Austin on Nov 29, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions
That almost as relevant to this discussion as A-Rod's 2007 contract with the Yankees is to Jeter's current situation
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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 29, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Touche
However, I thought we were talking long term solution
We're Probably Looking
At a lot of short term solutions; it’s Royal tradition.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2010 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
My First Thought
Was similar to yours, but after a little research it’s not nearly as obvious a choice as I thought. Apparently he may be available via FA, but he’s not exactly cheap. I’d take him over Yu-Bet just on principle (and UZR and wOBA), but it’s not as obvious as I thought.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dodgers-give-juan-uribe-three-years/
Ryan Theriot’s career wOBA is higher than Juan Uribe’s.
It’s not by much — a mere .007 — but it’s there. Theriot obviously carries most of his offensive value in OBP, where he has produced a career mark nearly 50 points higher than Uribe. This evens out when we weigh them on the same scale, wOBA, rather than OPS, which weighs power more heavily. If we look only at the last three seasons we can see that Uribe is only slightly better than Theriot, by a measure of 0.8 WAR. If they show a similar discrepancy during the next three seasons, it’s tough to argue that Uribe is worth that $7 million per season when compared to Theriot.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2010 8:05 AM EST up reply actions
Too late for Theroit, Cards nabbed him.
Go Royals!
betancourt
he has his flashes of brilliance in the field at times, he makes the outstanding plays, but sometimes misses the routine plays, his bat is decent at times, he never takes a walk, BUT he’s the best option we have right now, he’ll be decent for 2011, its gonna be a wasted year anyway, just waiting for colon to come up
Why don't the Royals move Yunie to third unitl Moose is ready?
He does have a strong arm and his lack of range will hurt less there, put Aviles at shortstop and Yuni at thrid if the Royals insist on playing YuBet.
Go Royals!
Don't Forget Fields
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t change horses in mid-stream!
It’s an interesting option the Royals have with the buy-out, but as you state who’s ready to step up and take his place? Like my daddy always used to say, ‘don’t change horses in mid-stream. Especially if you don’t have another horse.’
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