ERA and Defense

by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 29, 2010 2:30 PM EST

I have been doing 2011 fantasy profiles for the Royals for Fangraphs and the Hardball Times. I kept seeing a pattern of Royals pitcher's ERAs being higher than their true talent suggests (FIP and xFIPS). Here are the lifetime numbers for 4 starters that spent most of their major league careers in KC:

Name	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Hochevar	5.60	4.47	4.46
Davies	5.49	4.93	5.04
Greinke	3.82	3.59	3.91
Bannister	5.08	4.77	4.86

Besides Zack' s xFIP, all four of the pitcher's ERA were higher than their FIP and xFIPS. It wasn't just limited to these pitchers, here are the team numbers for the past 3 years:

Year	ERA	FIP	xFIP
2010	4.97	4.48	4.59
2009	4.83	4.36	4.44
2008	4.50	4.21	4.42

In 2008 there was not much difference in the values, but in 2009 and 2010 the team's ERA was close to a half run higher than FIP or xFIP. Part of this discrepancy can be blamed on the team's defense.

The years with the largest decrepancies are the same years the Royals have the worst defense according to their UZR numbers. Here on the team UZR totals over the past three years:

Year	Team UZR
2010	-44.5
2009	-49.1
2008	-10.2

I expanded study and did the UZR-ERA relationship for all teams and the relationship holds (I will post the results on Fangraphs in a few days).

Using the 2010 value of -44.5 runs, divided into 162 games equals -0.27 runs per game. According to UZR, the Royals defense gives up about a quarter point per game.

What does all the previous rambling mean: The Royals defense has been so bad the past couple of seasons, that they have helped to inflate their pitchers ERA's from 0.25 to 0.50 points. With the team's defense probably not being much better in 2011, remember that the defense needs to be also blamed for the pitcher's struggles as the season goes on.

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The defense will improve in 2011

Infield Improvements:
Kila will play at first occasionally instead of Butler
Getz will be our starting 2b, a position at which Aviles was horrible last year
Aviles will be our starting 3B, improving on Betemit, who will be limited to Utility/DH status.
Jason Kendall can not catch while he’s on the DL, so we improve there for half a season

Outfield:
Dyson is really, really fast
Gordon is Ok considering his above average arm
The leading options to replace DDJ in RF are probably Maier, Blanco and Lough, all with great D.

by moregritplease on Nov 29, 2010 2:50 PM EST reply actions

Add in yunie with -50 UZR and the Royals should be below average.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Nov 29, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions

Add in some massive exageration...

by Boots 58 on Nov 29, 2010 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

A Getz/Yuni/Aviles 2B/SS/3B

…I guess we can add this to reasons KC might “screw it up.”

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by Matt Klaassen on Nov 29, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

don't forget Dyson

by TJ92 on Nov 29, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

I'm Hoping He

At least starts in Omaha next year. Gordon, Blanco and Maier are above average defense, and Gordon has a good shot at being above average offensively, whils Blanco and Maier won’t kill us at the plate. Unfortunately, Moore thinks he has to have a RHB in the mix.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 29, 2010 8:41 PM EST up reply actions

i'd like to see Blanco in CF (and Dyson in Omaha)

and Lough in RF, with, and i said this on twitter earlier today, Andruw Jones on the bench as a guy who gets 250 AB’s between LF, RF, and DH. he crushes LHP and is a somewhat solid defender still. would be cheap i’d think, former brave!, and might be somewhat valuable at the deadline.

of all the stop gap COF’s, I like Jones the most.

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by doublestix on Nov 30, 2010 3:03 AM EST up reply actions

I Didn't Realize

Jones was a FA and his price had dropped that much. It’s hard to believe he’s only going to be 34.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Nov 30, 2010 8:18 AM EST up reply actions

Pretty cool to see this laid out.

It has been said many times around here but I don’t remember anyone showing the actual proof.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Nov 29, 2010 9:17 PM EST reply actions

I sure as hell wouldn't use the word "proof"

by Salty on Nov 29, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions

That the pitchers look worse when using a stat that includes the defense?

I think this does a pretty good job of that.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Nov 30, 2010 9:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

How could this be?

I mean, our shortstop has plus plus hands

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Nov 30, 2010 12:01 AM EST reply actions

Want more evidence?

Well, Bill James is on record that baseball is 50% scoring runs and 50% preventing runs. He further divides the run scoring into 42% hitting and 8% baserunning, while attributing 37% to pitcher performance and 13% to defense.

If that is close to accurate (and who are we to dispute James’ numbers? They have to at the very least be close to the truth), that means run prevention is about three-fourths the responsibility of the pitcher, and one-fourth the responsibility of the defenders. Intuitively, that sounds about right to me. If you accept that premise, there is no reason in the world that the arguably worst defensive team in the AL could cost it’s pitchers between a quarter and half of a run on their collective team ERA.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Nov 30, 2010 12:06 AM EST reply actions

Thirteen percent defense is pretty hard to attribute a rather large change in team ERA. The difference between the best and worst, and those teams are unknown, would be a small fraction of that 13 percent.

by Salty on Nov 30, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions