Greinke trade overflow thread
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:06 PM EST
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PrintRight now it looks like Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt + $2M for Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi and something. That something might be Jeremy Jeffress or a PTBNL. UPDATE: newest reports say that it was a PTBNL, and that Jeffress is that player.
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Stolen from Brew Crew Ball who stole it from "a guy at Brewerfan"
“The Brewers get the most valuable and least valuable players in the majors over the past 2 seasons. 14 for Greinke, -1.1 for Betancourt.”
is that accurate?
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
I'm not sold on designing "Fire DM" t-shirts yet
I might start with “Fire Dayton Moore” bandanas, truck nuts, and baseball caps
Also worth noting that not every Royals fan bashing Greinke today is stupid, but every stupid Royals fan seems to be out in force to bash Greinke and act like this team didn’t just get significantly worse in 2011.
This deal does strengthen my suspicion that Dayton Moore is a gambling addict or a Craigslist addict, trying to turn the junk he gets into treasure. Now we get to hear about “how signing (x) wasn’t so bad because we got Escobar for Betancourt” along with the mythology about Ankiel landing Tim Collins.
Can we get an intervention on DM? Because there’s not an elite prospect on this team that I have any confidence is going to be in KC in their 7th ML year.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
I GUARANTEE they will be in KC for their 7th year. That’s why Moose isn’t breaking camp with the ML team this year.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
would you guarantee they'll sign an extension to KC?
the future has Moneygrabber Scott Boras as an agent.
So when you combine an agent who wants his clients to get paid more with a team that has no willingness to pay young players, you’ll get Moustakas and Hosmer added to the wall with Damon and Beltran if they succeed.
(Hosmer is a better bet than Moustakas, because Moustakas is flawwwwed)
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
If you don't call the prospect up until about June, then you get an extra year of service time
So that’s not 7 full seasons, but most of 7 sesons.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I guarantee that the Royals are going to work their service clocks so that we get another year of control.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
that's not what i'm asking
I’m sure that once you modulate the hypothetical money involved, and carry the 6, the deal doesn’t look like a guy in a skimask robbed Dayton’s house..
but Hosmer and Moustakas are not getting extensions here. Because Boras don’t work that way and this organization is still as cheap as ever
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Right, they likely aren't getting extensions
And the Royals will get 6.75 seasons out of them. And we’ll enjoy them.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
that’ll make 540ish losses more enjoyable!
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Wow, you're off the deep end
Get back to me when you’re ready to come back to rationality.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
I also enjoyed Zack Greinke for about
682 losses in 7 years.
But I enjoy winning more, and Moore isn’t gonna field a winning team
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
That's fair
Although concluding that Moore is a bad GM has nothing to do with an honest evaluation of this trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
you don't think one might have something to do
with the other?
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
The trade is as good as the trade is
Past bad moves by DM don’t make this trade any better or worse. It should be judged on its merits, not on the merits of past DM moves.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
so it doesn't make it more likely than not
that he got fleeced based on previous fleecings?
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Are you talking about previous trades?
His track record on previous trades is mixed. Some good ones, some bad ones, a lot of meh. Certianly his track record on his many awful prior FA signings should affect one’s analysis of this trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
We could call A&E and tell them we have an Intervention that is needed, I will volunteer to write a letter a.nd read it to DM. I will even cry and tell him how is "problem" is destroying our city
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
( runs to eBay to post his authentic Royals Yuni jersey for sale )
.
"We had opportunities when we smoked balls," manager Ned Yost said.
racist
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
Yuni-ist.
"We had opportunities when we smoked balls," manager Ned Yost said.
by Diggity Dawg on Dec 19, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
only plus of the deal
trading Yuni with Greinke reduces the number of dumdum babies complaining about the Royals trading our HR leader
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
What did you think the Royals could reasonably get for Greinke?
Clearly you think Moore could have gotten a lot more, or perhaps should have just not traded him at all?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
there’s nothing saying DM had to trade him now. But then he tinkered with Pandora’s box for weeks and stunningly Greinke got tired of the uncertainty. Good thing only Greinke is held to a standard of loyalty here.
DM’s price plummeted here. And essentially showed once again how bad a GM he really is.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
There is signficant risk that some of the good offers (like this one) dry up when the teams opt to go for FA SP’s rather than risk that they’ll be the ones to get Greinke. And I don’t think DM’s price plummeted. The price he mentioned publicly was public posturing. It wasn’t realistic and I assumed everyone new that. It was the start of a negotiating process.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
So he never asked for ML-ready players?
because he didn’t really get any here.
Cain would have been good for Bannister or DeJesus.
Escobar fits the mold of “shitty player whose best attribute is overblown”
And we got a guy who had the 5th most strikeouts in the Midwest League. Which means he’s due for stardom..
I don’t understand how so many people are willing to vote DM as incompetent but they aren’t willing to see this trade for what it is.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
I don't know who he asked for. I don't think you do either.
Both Escobar and Cain are MLB ready. No question. Arguing otherwise is beyond foolish.
Escobar fits the mold of "shitty player whose best attribute is overblown"
Unsupported and unsupportable. Even more foolish that your above statement.
And we got a guy who had the 5th most strikeouts in the Midwest League. Which means he’s due for stardom..
A good pitching prospect, according to just about any prospect analyst.
I don’t understand how so many people are willing to vote DM as incompetent but they aren’t willing to see this trade for what it is.
I don’t think you have a realistic idea of what 2 years of an ace pitcher can get in trade. I keep asking you what you expected, or think would have been reasonable. Apparently you want cheap, established MLB stars. that’s not realistic.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
just because you play in the majors doesn't impact your MLB-readyness
although maybe MLB-ready is too low a bar, because Escobar isn’t MLB-quality and Cain isn’t enough.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
So Escobar is just crap now?
He was the #12 prospect in baseball going into last season. Then he had a bad season. Does a bad MLB season at age 23 prove that a player just isn’t MLB-quality at all? Do you really believe something as silly as that?
I’m going to give you enough credit that you are just posting off emotion now and not really thinking.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I don't have blind faith in scouts
And let’s face it, the scouts are the ones who are dominating this organization’s quests for ML talent, and they’ve kept failing repeatedly, going for the Upside guys (which aren’t reclamation projects post-Baird!)
Getting rid of Yuni makes me think “Be Careful What You Wish For”… Escobar’s fielding value has to be high if his OPS+ won’t get over 80
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
So all you pay attention to is stats?
You don’t care what any scouts or prospect analysts say, ever, and you don’t think tools have any meaning? Is that about right?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
Performance is almost everything
There’s good stuff that should be known about how a player acts and all that. Dayton’s plan to build this team is a Ponzi Scheme. His way of doing things is like buying lots of stocks and thinking they’re all going to be successful without taking into account history.
This team has a 20th century way of doing things and is still behind the times right now
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Is minor league performance relevant?
I would direct your attention to the minor league stats (hitting and defense) of Cabrera, Cain and Odorizzi.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
the more you poke at the Royals system
the thinner it looks.
I don’t particularly put players on the radar until they get some time in AA anyways.
Cain could be useful, although he’ll probably be useful in Omaha for most of 2011 because the turkey thermometer that indicates his readiness hasn’t popped out yet.
But in the scheme of things, this was not what this team needed to get for Greinke.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
You are standing on an island
the more you poke at the Royals system the thinner it looks.
I don’t know if anyone on the planet agrees with this. Even those who think DM is incompetent agree that he’s built a great minor league system. I’m sorry but your statement is nonsensical.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
If lots of people say it
it must be true
They don’t fly pennants for having the best Minor League System. And having the best minor league system is irrelevant if it doesn’t lead to major league success.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
If almost everybody says one thing and a random baseball fan says something else, I’m going to go with almost everybody.
And having the best minor league system is irrelevant if it doesn’t lead to major league success.
Correct. And I don’t think Moore will get us there. What does that have to do with the quality of this trade?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
are the Royals better today than they were yesterday?
are they better in 2012 than they were on 12/18/2010?
I don’t think so.
And with a trade like this, DM has to win it. And I don’t think that’s going to happen unless Zack Greinke becomes a Tibetan Monk and quits the Western World
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
They are better in 2013 than they were yesterday
You trade Greinke so you can bring in pieces that will be there for a hopefully contending future when prospects have arrived and they aren’t all on their rookie seasons.
This team shouldn’t be ready to contend in 2012. Any prospects arriving (with the possible exception of Moustakas) will likely be in their rookie seaosns. Greinke needed to be traded for the best package Moore could get.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think they are better NEXT YEAR when you sub Escobar for Yuni and Cain for Maier.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty low babip no? I think his numbers will rebound some.
And people love the defense.
Since yuni is a negative value player we got this group for Greinke, plus we got them to take Betancourt. We asked for 5 premium pieces and we got 4 plus they took the worst player in baseball.
Cain’s health is a concern, as is Escobar’s bat but both are above average defenders at premium positions with line drive swings that will play well in the K.
by WURoyal on Dec 19, 2010 4:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He could've gotten more upside if he hadn't insisted upon ML-ready, up-the-middle players.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I don't know that he insisted on those things
And please don’t refer to his public comments about him wanting those things. He also publicly said that he wanted a massive haul that included a bunch of things he didn’t get in this trade. He was just posturing.
And, we dont’ know that the Brewers were willing to give up more than this.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
It's hard to imagine he didn't insist on those things given the mid- to low-level talent on
teams that were rumored to be involved. It seems he really wanted ML-ready, so they would be in sync with the glut of prospects soon to come up from AA.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Your speculation is possibly true
Or not true. It’s guesswork based on rumors of what may or may not have been offered by other teams.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
If we aren't going to base our opinions on what is true or possibly true in the media, what is that you would base it on?
We’ll never know the factual stories.
However, I agree with KLaw. You’ve got to get as close to a Greinke in return as possible. The Royals did not do that.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I don't assume that rumors = truth
We don’t know what else Moore could have gotten. We really don’t. Kscoliny posted a few of the most recent reported offers in the original thread. This trade is as good or better than any of them.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
We know he didn't get a player that has the capacity to impact the Royals at the level of Greinke.
Why fill multiple holes with ‘meh’ when you’re trading Greinke.
Of the four things he said that he wanted at the Baseball Meetings, the most important should’ve been a Greinke-like player in return. Even if nothing else was in the deal.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Why fill multiple holes with ‘meh’ when you’re trading Greinke.
That’s hard to find. Who offered the Royals that, and in what package?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
How do you define "Greinke-like player"?
If we’re just trading the same thing for the same thing, what’s the purpose of that? By which I mean, why would another team want to do that? What would be the incentive?
But if your definition of “Greinke-like” is different than the picture I’ve got in my head, then I could see your point
Their incentive is that they get Greinke now and the Royals get the next Greinke, but later.
If they’re in position to compete now, Greinke-now is much more valuable to them than Greinke-like later.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
That is why we save the money from this and get
Grienke back in 2013. We are just letting the Brewers rent him for a couple of years.
Go Royals!
I get that.
I just wasn’t sure of what you meant by “Greinke-like.” I was just trying to follow you here.
I guess I meant does a potential (i.e. prospect) “Greinke-like” player count, and if so, how close to ML are you talking? Or were you talking a ML Greinke-level-impact for Greinke? Or an ace- starting-pitcher for an ace-starting-pitcher. Just wasn’t sure which of Greinke’s qualities you were thinking of in that comment.
If I have a fantasy team this season -
I’m totally naming them the Dumdum Babies.
"We had opportunities when we smoked balls," manager Ned Yost said.
by Diggity Dawg on Dec 19, 2010 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
who knows, DM might know more about the prospects than we do, he built DA BEST FARM SYSTEM after all
by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Dec 19, 2010 1:23 PM EST reply actions
I actually like this trade
couple nice cost controlled pieces on the defensive side,
Odorizzi is a beast
Jeffress could be a great reliever, or we could try him in the rotation.
We HAVE to trade Soria now don’t we??
a beast!
damn that must have been a great one full year in the midwest league.
There is this cottage industry that hypes prospects out there and really, it gets ridiculous when they act like a guy who just finished Low A is going to be in the majors in 2013.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
So you don't think there are highly ranked prospects in A-ball?
Hell, most of them are. Did you want Moore to trade Greinke for a bunch of vets? Or did you want him to trade for guys with good upside who have multiple years of team control? I think you’re being unrealistic in the extreme.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
being a high-ranked prospect in A-Ball doesn't mean much
Tim Melville looked awesome after 2009.. but neither him or Odorizzi is a smart return for Zack Greinke.
It’s like trading stuff for lottery tickets.
I would tell you about the best of the 2007 Midwest League… if BBRef didn’t go down as I was getting there
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
All prospects are lottery tickets
Those in A-ball are more risky than those more advanced. That’s why he was the #3 piece in this deal. You are asking like good pitching prospects in A-ball are worthless. That’s ridiculous.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
the best of the 2007 Midwest League!
ranked on strikeouts
Duane Below
Zach Phillips
Jim Heuser
Nate Starner
Clayton Kershaw
Tyler Herron
Kyle Ginley
Sean O’Sullivan
Tyler Robertson
Omar Poveda
2 major leaguers on that list. Every player outside of Below, Heuser, and Starner is 19 or 20.
Kershaw skipped AAA, Ginley was last seen in High A in 2009, Herron was in the Frontier League in 2010, Robertson was in AA in 2010, and Poveda was last seen in AA in 2009.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Do you have a point?
If your point is most prospects fail, then you didn’t even need to try to support it. It’s obvious to anyone that follows baseball. If you’re saying Moore shouldn’t have traded for any prospects, you’re likely insane.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
and it’s a bit ridiculous for you to 180 on Dayton Moore and ridiculous for people to act like Odorizzi is some strong bet to be in the majors in 2013
Odorizzi being in the deal does not change my POV of the deal. And a lot of these Odorizzi advocates have seen as much of him as I have
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Is it doing a 180 on Moore to conclude that this trade is somewhere between bad and good? Of course not. Or maybe you are one of these people who believe that if you think Dayton Moore sucks as a GM, then you must conclude that every move he ever makes is awful. I’m not one of those people. And I completely reject the assertions that this trade is awful and that Escobar isn’t a MLB-quality player. They are without merit or support. That’s just knee-jerk negativity or ignorance.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
escobar was ranked#12 by BA this past year….
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2010/269546.html
DM has made good moves
but it’s sorta like complimenting someone’s attention to using turn signals and acknowledging yield signs before he runs his car into a ditch
What is the end game and how does this trade get us closer to that end game better than keeping Greinke for even a half of 2011?
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
DM is a bad GM who made an ok trade. That’s all. The “end game” is contending (at least). This trade gives us a guy who might be a long-term good SS for us. Cain might be a long-term good CFer for us. Nothing is ever definite. And the Royals weren’t going to get a bunch of great established major leaguers in this trade. Adn the haul likely would have been worse if we traded 1 1/3 seasons of Greinke in July.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Where's the end game for the pitching
it seems that the starting pitching depends on having 3 prospects succeed at the exact same time. It’s voodoo.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Two possibilities
1. Multiple prospects succeed.
2. Money saved by having a young, cheap team in near future years allows us to sign FA’s.
Now lots of prospects will fail (don’t know how many) and I don’t trust Moore to sign good FA’s. That’s why I don’t see Moore getting this team into the playoffs. But that doesn’t have anything to do with how good this trade is.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
free agents won't come here
if the prospects don’t succeed. They don’t now, They won’t then
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
by sm7600 on Dec 19, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The guy had a lot of fanfare coming out of HS
went in the first couple of rounds. He’s probably a year below where you’d like to have your main piece in terms of closeness to the majors and relation to the injury nexus but its not like he came from nowhere.
Certainly has ace potential.
I've got to give this a D
For 2 YEARS of Grienke? This is underwhelming. I am glad to get rid of Yuni, and Escobar will be a + at least in the field, but where is the blue chip? To me, the closest is Odirizzi and he is pretty far away. Cain’s upside is limited, and if Jeffress is the last player, he is a head case with a history of drug problems. AND we gave them cash?!?
Lost in any analysis of the players potential etc. will be the PR and 2011 record repercussions. The Royals will take an unprecedented tumble in attendance this year and were bordering on irrelevance with all but the hard core fans prior to this off season. They will lose over 100 games. Some fans who are just short of hard core are already planning to boycott.
If we ever reach the mythical year when all these guys come up and save the world, will there be anyone left to watch it?
Stay Thirsty, My friends!
Could someone with Insider access
paraphrase Law’s post when it’s up? Really curious what he thinks.
He doesn't like it
Basically says the Royals didn’t get any impact guys, and the move reminds him of the Beltran trade.
He likes Odorizzi the most of the group. Really doesn’t like Escobar, or Cains plate discipline
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
by averagegatsby on Dec 19, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the snip posted over at lonestarball....
What Kansas City got back is bulk, and fit, but not impact. There’s no single anchor prospect in this deal, a player who’d be a top-15 pick in a draft or who’d be a top-5 prospect in the Royals’ stacked system. And three of the four guys the Royals got back (assuming for now that Jeremy Jeffress is the fourth piece) have some major concern around them that impacts their projected long-term value. When you’re trading a once-a-decade franchise player with two years left on a reasonable contract, you have a rare opportunity to add one top-shelf, impact prospect to your system, and the Royals employed a different philosophy entirely.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
by rooster on Dec 19, 2010 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Unforunately, that kindof is my gut reaction
But I’m hoping I’m wrong
Haha. Escobar is a gold glove caliber SS with a compact swing who has projection and was an above replacement level player last year. He would have gone 4 in last years draft if not ahead of machado
by WURoyal on Dec 19, 2010 5:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
exactly what I said in the last thread
and this is exactly what the smart teams do when they trade a top of the line guy. The Royals didnt adhere to that imo… the guys they got all look like solid prospects, but I dont see any real top of the line guys in the bunch, none of them have the potential to be top 5 or so guys at their position in the ML. If you’re gonna buy lotto tickets (which is what getting prospects is like essentially) you wanna get tickets that can really win big if they hit.
The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013
You all do overflow threads at only 500 comments?
If this is deemed a good trade because the defense is solid, I would have to say defense is being way overrated.
Not enough high upside players in this deal.
I like Cain the best, actually, of all the players. He has skills that look like he could be DeJesus. Escobar has glove, which isn’t exactly the sort of thing that is the reason an Cy Young caliber #1 is traded for.
Jeffres looks more like the next Farnsworth.
The other pitcher will be fortunate to be a #4 starter someday.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I do overflow threads at 500 comments because the thread can get slow for a lot of peoples computers
You don’t like Escobar’s upside. Why? Because he had a bad rookie season? He sure had a ton of upside before that. Does one season erase most of his upside?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
His rookie season clearly revealed he could be pitched to, and his history is that he swings a lot.
He has a lot of work to do to become a more patient hitter. I certainly haven’t read any offseason stories saying that is something he plans to work on.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
So unless you see an offseason article which says he plans to work on his plate discipline, then there’s no reason to believe that a 23-year-old player’s hitting won’t improve? You are putting way too much stock in what a player did in his rookie season. Too many fans look at one season of play and that’s all they really pay attention to.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Winter ball stats!
Please don’t bother.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not projection his ML performance, but they certainly do not indicate he's working on the weakest part of his game.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I’m sorry but winter ball stats don’t reliably indicate anything. They tell even less than ST stats, which tell you almost nothing reliably.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
It's a data point
But one rookie season does not make a player. Do you think a player should be expected to improve after his age 23 MLB season?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
sure, but improving on .288 OBP season is really
easy and doesn’t mean alot… there is alot of improving to be done to just be below average at hitting.
The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013
And players his age often improve a lot
You can’t assume a guy is a crappy hitter just because of a crappy hitting rookie season. It is one season and one season only. Let’s not pretend that we now know how good of a hitter he is.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
So Moore signs Greinke to an extension after 2008,
saves money during his arbitration years (especially in 2010 after he won the Cy Young), and then trades him for several prospects, very probably adding significantly more value than he could have added with a single draft pick, had Greinke not signed the extension and left as a free agent after 2010.
Not incompetent, from that point of view. Maybe even worth suffering through 478 PAs of Mike Jacobs, if that’s what it took to convince Greinke to sign the extension.
by 2X2L on Dec 19, 2010 1:31 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
I like
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
Maybe Xczaaqq Is
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Dec 19, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
Lorenzo Cain
Looks a lot like a young, cheap David DeJesus with stolen bases and better defense. Cain’s offensive projection for his age 25 season looks almost exactly like DDJ’s stats at the same age. That’s a really nice piece.
Escobar seems like he’ll be a useful player at SS whether or not he lives up to his prospect billing. If he does live up to his projections from a year ago, he’ll be a star. Another good piece.
I think that’s exactly right—-DDJ quality offense and a plus CF (as opposed to a decent CF).
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm totally on board with the idea that Cain is the guy to have the best ML career in this deal.
This is why it is a bad deal for the Royals. It doesn’t do all that much good to field a team full of ‘meh’, when that team was obtained by trading a Cy Young winner.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
DDJ with better defense and baserunning is far from 'meh'
It’s a really good player—somewhere between MLB average and All-Star. And the Royals will have him cheap for many years. Hell, if the Royals are good in 2012, they might be able to sign Greinke in free agency. If they don’t add anyone big next offseason, they’ll have a lot of money available.
I love the idea of signing ZG in free agency in 2012.
It’s a dream, but that would be so awesome.
If Lorenzo Cain turns into another DDJ
And that includes the plate discipline(!) that I’m a bit worried Cain will never have, then I’ll be pretty happy.
DeJesus is not a great comp for Cain
Cain does not make anywhere near the contact that DDJ does — DDJ strikes out at a rate well below average (his minor league K:BB rate of 122:120 was nearly 1:1, while Cain has had issues making contact throughout his career (career minor league K:BB of 473:232). Cain (.125 ISO in the minors) has not shown the same power as DDJ (.163 ISO in the minors) either.
Yeah, there are big differences in strikeouts and ISO power
Can will have to maintain a high BABIP to overcome those. Good speed and high strikeouts both correlate with high BABIP tho. (Speed to beat throws, strikeouts suggesting you’re swinging harder, and that when you do make contact, it’s better contact.) The Bill James projection on Fangraphs has him at .347 next year tho. That’s a really high number considering that the limited data would suggest a heavy regression to the mean. I wonder how they came to that.
You never really want to count on sustaining a really high BABIP as your main offensive component
Bill James projections are notoriously unreliable. ZIPS has Cain at 254/317/355.
Someone please tell me
that escobar is not TPJ revisited
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
If minor league stats, prospect rankings, scouts and prospect analysts’ opinions have any meaning, then Escobar is only 1,000 better than TPJ
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
and mean it
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Question?
Just want to see what peoples thoughts are about Colon’s def. at 2b. I know he was considered to project as an average MLB SS. But, if Escobar is the SS and Colon moves to 2b does that upgrade his defense rating? I would assume his bat would still be plus there.
Colon definitely fits in at 2B. I think the common thought was that he’ll be a below average SS defensively. His bat would be above average.
Switching to 2B changes that to average defensively and average offensively (maybe still above average because of the power potential).
by WURoyal on Dec 19, 2010 5:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, below average range at SS can easily translate into above average range at 2B. I like how his defense and bat project at that position, assuming his bat continues to develop.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Keith Law just tweeted that Jeffress is the guy
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
Keith Law is confirming that Jeffress is back in the deal
in the scheme of things, ragging him for the pot thing is close to those people who think Greinke is going to relapse into an anxiety breakdown because it happened in 2006.
And anyways, Jeffress was only doing stuff that is dumb for his career, not stuff that should be illegal. But that’s another topic.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
yeah but ...
we don't need one of those Lincicum kinda guys
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
by who am i? on Dec 19, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
next question
We just added another OF. Is Gordon gone?
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
We don't know
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I assume that we have Cain in Center Gordon in Left and Melky / Frenchy in RF / DH roles
Chiefs go 7-9 this year and 3-3 in the division.
We have a top 5 rushing attack and a bottom 10 pass attack. Charles and Bowe in the Pro Bowl.
We have a top 5 pass defense and a bottom 10 rush defense. Hali, Flowers, and Berry to the Pro Bowl.
by ChiefsfanJon on Dec 19, 2010 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
that would the best case scenario
after the abortion of an outfield he put out there last year I wouldn’t be so sure
My guess
Is its Gordon and Melky platooning in LF. But that’s probably just cynicism talking.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Please no Frenchy in DH roles.
Even this organization isn’t that dumb.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
should have thrown Melky in the package
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
well, we can hope
that frenchy & melky are showcase until the trade deadline guys…
on those signings…. WTF? If you sign a “coming off an off year”, or “hoping for upside” guy.. you are a friggen idiot if you don’t do a 1-year with a CLUB option, even if it’s an expensive one. I don’t mind taking a risk on someone, but if he succeeds you should be able keep him, not let him thumb his nose & go get a payday elsewhere.
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Don’t need a club option for Melky; we control him for two years. I agree with you about Frenchy, however I think he and DM have a gentleman’s agreement on a long term contract if he performs this year.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
His presser comments
sounded like it, and I’m sure Moore will pony up too much money if Frenchie shows some “upside” this year (I have no idea what that would actually look like and deem it too unlikely to matter).
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
My question is that Moore went on the offensive to purge those who where considered
“not Royals worthy” in makeup, action, attitude and demeanor then just turned right around and acquired 2 guys with huge red flags in regards to their personalties and history…
For those who don’t know there are some major makeup questions regarding Escobar and his coach-ability and his estranged wife/child… Everyone at this point should be well versed in the Jefferies drug problems story..
DM is so maddeningly inconsistent….
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Myth
It is a myth that Moore only acquires guys who he thinks has good makeup. He tried to trade for Milton Bradly. He acquired Jose Guillen. He traded for Callaspo after he was arrested for kicking his wife. Etc.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
Does it make me a bad person that I laughed at this line
arrested for kicking his wife
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
by averagegatsby on Dec 19, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
Yes it does.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 3:49 PM EST up reply actions
I laughed too,
and I’m virtually positive she didn’t deserve it…
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Dec 19, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
weirdest recent stuff with Escobar's estranged wife
involved her sending tweets to a Royals fan I know last night.
I’m guessing she’s estranged, partly off of past history, and her posting a pic of her dad with her daughter saying “I Thank God everyday for the amazing father figure my princess has. Thanks Daddy 4 being the Best Dad in the world”..
Escobar’s father in law is Royals legend Omar Moreno and I guess Omar wears his 70s Pirates cap around socially.
Escobar wouldn’t be the first Royal to abandon his offspring. And NY Royal is right when it comes to DM and character guys.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
I don't like Escobar because of his lack of knowledge of the strike zone. Hackers just don't last long in the majors
Here are some minor league walk rates from some known hackers:
Yuni – 3.3%
Escobar – 5.0%
Berroa – 5.5%
Frenchy – 5.7%
Moustakas – 6.8%
Vlad – 8.0%
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
Is it relevant that Escobar's above stat comes from his rookie season?
Are the above all rookie season numbers or career numbers? Should we expect such a stat to remain static?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Escobar in the minors - 140 walks in 2822 PA
Career minor league numbers. Normally they get worse.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I hate seeing stuff like this.
I know it’s kind of hit and miss but is there any research that shows walk rates/OBP improving significantly during a career? I know power and walk rates trend up through a player’s peak for the most part but what about for guys like this?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
you get a little movement after the first year
but VERY VERY VERY few players dramatically improve their plate discipline in the upper minors/MLB.
It is possible, just very improbable
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
That's what I figured.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
walk rate remains much more static than SO rate...
most have a +/- of 2% in career walk rate vs. the first full season..
Out of the top 10 SS on fangraphs only 1 had a wider range…\
So a BB% of about 7-8% is the best case. Depends on his BS but he in not likely to be a legit lead off guy
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Those were Escobar's career minor league numbers
He actually walked 6.5% of the time last year which would be pretty decent. If Escobar’s BABIP winds up around .300, he’ll be a below average MLB hitter, but with good defense at SS. In other words, he’ll be a good player. If his BABIP stays at .264 where it was last year, he’ll be unplayable.
Yeah, I dont' see star upside
But he could be good. Or he could be not so good.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
And walked 6.5% with 20 of his 36 BB's coming from the 8th spot in the lineup.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
God, next season is going to suck
I think I’m going to be watching some Brewers games
agreed
let’s just start making up some drinking games now
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
Royals Error = Slam a Beer
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'm gonna guess Escobar had more errors than Yuni last season.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
because he will actually try for balls hit to his left?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Most likely.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Royals lose on baserunning error = Shot of patron
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
our rotation is going to be atrocious
and man, Zack was my favorite royal ever. at least he went to the NL, and a likable team at that
Royals game scheduled for today:
take 10 shots
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
I already have a drinking game.
For every Royals game I watch I have to drink 8 beers.
DM Extends Kendall = We all Smoke crack for a week
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
If none of our prospects develop = Develop heroin problem to cope
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, let's play this game
Player: Best Case / Middle Case / Worst Case
Alcides Escobar: Jimmy Rollins / Orlando Cabrera / Tony Pena Jr
Lorenzo Cain: David DeJesus / Joey Gathright / Joey Gathright 2008
Jake Odorizzi: Chad Billingsley* / Jorge De La Rosa / Colt Griffin
Jeremy Jeffress: Kyle Farnsworth 2010 KC / Kyle Farnsworth / Kyle Farnsworth, Opening Day 2009
What combination of these player comps would you need to make this a win of a deal?
*(sorry, just pulling a name out of a hat)
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 2:15 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
rec'd
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
can't be done
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Don't know if any of it is confirmed yet
But every report has the same names, except for Jeffress.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
From mlbtraderumors
12:59pm: Jeffress has been told that he will be the PTBNL in the trade, tweets Goldstein.
Escobar had a .264 BABIP last year, despite a 21.5% LD percentage (both according to fangraphs)
Given his speed, isn’t that insanely unlucky? What would his line look like if we adjusted it to a normal BABIP, anyone know how to do that?
Killing time until time kills me
I can not remember the formula for xBABIP
Let me look
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I thought it was a normal BABIP was supposed to be .120 above the LD%, so he should've hada .335 BABIP
..but that is just going off of memory and I think that is kind of an old method…so no idea if anything has changed.
Killing time until time kills me
That's a quick shorthand method
But there are more complicated and more accurate methods of calculating xBABIP
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I'd be curious
What does his triple slash for last year look like if adjusted for “average luck”?
Here we go
using this:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/11/10/1124792/a-new-xbabip-calculator
I get 0.315
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Not a terrible deal by any means, but not a big win either
As mentioned in the original thread, it is disappointing that Moore stuck to his “up the middle” edict instead of pursing the best players regardless of position and that the deal is more quanity than quality. A deal for a better second piece would have been preferable to three lesser pieces.
That said, Escobar is not a bad guy to anchor this type of deal — his outlook is not the same as it was before his terrible season, but a bad rookie year does not wipe out all of the promise. The defense is legitimately plus (his main problem has been with errors, which, unlike range, can be fixed). His 2011 ZIPS projection of .269/.315/.368 is encouraging only because of how bad his 2010 was.
The rest are a bit underwhelming. Odorizzi is a decent prospect, but pretty far away, and stats from the low A ball Midwest League need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. He sounds like he should be from the Twins system’s never ending pipeline of number three starter types.
Cain should be an upgrade on Gregor Blanco as the best CF on the roster, but not by a whole lot. He strikeouts too much for a guy without much power. Minor league defensive stats are not great, but Total Zone has him as -11 runs in CF for his minor league career. He is interesting, but might be more of a project.
Jeffress is fine as a relief prospect, but a team should be able to find relievers in places other than trades in which it gives up its best player.
At least we do not have to watch Yuni anymore.
Agreed, not a big win or a big loss
It’s an ok haul for two years of Greinke
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
We needed a big win though
Our rotation is now shot
It was shot with Greinke. This deal is about trying to win in 2013 and beyond.
Killing time until time kills me
Lol sounds like what we heard when we dealt Beltran
Only then it was 2010
We didn't have the consensus best farm system then.
The deal has risk, no doubt, but this is a different situation.
Killing time until time kills me
We'll see
But I’m guessing this ends up looking like a bad deal in 2-3 years
Perhaps
Keeping Greinke and losing him and getting just a draft pick would have been worse.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Just seems pretty weak return for Zack Greinke
Another outfielder, Tony Pena Jr part 2, a relief pitcher and an A-ball starter? For 2 years of one of the best and only available stud SP’s in baseball? blech
TPJ part 2?
That nonsensical. And the Royals have had some good prospects in A-ball. Are they worthless, no matter how well thought of just because they are in A-ball?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
A-ball pitchers are a lottery ticket if anything in baseball is
And in TPJ’s only s eason with over 500 AB’s, he put up a 30 point higher OPS than Escobar did last season
You're evaluating a 23-year-old solely by what he did in his rookie season
If you don’t see how bad that analysis is, then I won’t try to explain it to you. And the good pitching prospect in A-ball is the #3 guy in the deal. And he’s a good pitching prospect. It’s nice to have him in the deal. I don’t know what you wanted in this trade, but I’m pretty sure it was entirely unrealisitic.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
You think Escobar is ever going to be a star?
I would have liked to have gotten higher upside players. That is all.
I think he’s more likely to be a 2-3 WAR player (most of his value coming from defense). Now he could do better than that, or worse. So I doubt he’ll be a star. I’m sure you wanted a star in exchange for Greinke. I don’t think anyone offered one. This is better than not trading Greinke. And I think the haul would have been worse in July.
I would have liked trading him for a bunch of future HOFers. But no other team was willing to go along with it, I don’t think.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
honestly
two draft picks would have been better
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
whoa
maybe to you. But as far as “value” goes, not even close. Soooo much uncertainty.
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
Agree, this is better than the picks
and
Hopefully Dayton can turn the saved money into a couple decent free agents.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
And 2 top picks cost a lot
This saves the Royals $30M in salary to Greinke and Yuni and gets us 4 players that don’t require signing bonuses. This is a million times better than holding onto Greinke for draft picks.
They really wouldn't have been
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Right, and we needed to trade Beltran anyway
It was a bad trade. And a bad GM wasn’t enough to get the team into contention ever. A bad GM might keep the Royals out of contention in 2013 and beyond also. But that doesn’t mean it wouuld have made more sense to keep Beltran so that a horrible Royals team wins 3 more games in those years, or that the Royals keep Greinke and have the same thing happen in 2011 and 2012.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying keep Greinke
Just don’t like what we got
Feel like we should have gotten more, I don’t see an impact ML player in this deal
Doesn't seem like we were offered more
Kscoliny broke down the reported offers and this one was as good or better than any of them. Reportedly there was a Nats offer which some would have liked, but Greinke wouldn’t waive his NTC to go there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry but until I get some proof that there weren't
I will automatically assume that Moore screwed the pooch and that there were better offers out there. And you can’t tell me anything to dissuade me. The only thing that will dissuade me is performance on the field.
I’m not holding my breath
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Then you’re just not willing to objectively evaluate the trade, which has been pretty obvious from your first post in the original Greinke trade thread. You’re so pissed at DM for being a bad GM overall (which is understandable) that it is impossible for you to even attempt to objectively or fairly evaluate anything he does. That makes your analysis (if one can call it that) worthless.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
gee, that's
a shame
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
beltran was a 2 month rental
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Funny how "the year" keeps moving back every year.
Cuz I don’t think it’ll ever get here.
To be fair, our rotation really was
“Zack and, uh, pray for lots of rain”
Next year it's gonna be
Kyle and Luke and I gotta puke.
"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947
by Juancho on Dec 19, 2010 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
How's about Luke and I gotta puke?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Doesn't fit syllabically
"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947
We shouldn't be thinking about contending in 2011 or 2012
We won’t likely be contending in those seasons, even with a happy Greinke on the team. We needed to get the best post-2012 haul for Greinke that we could.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care
What I care is about building a winner, now how bad some rebuilding years might be.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously.
I’ve been a Royals fan for 30+ years and plan to be for 30+ more. I don’t mind if the next 2 years suck as bad as the last 15 (or 25) IF the payoff for these particular 2 years of suckage is that for multiple years after that we will not only be a .500+ team but also a contending one from time to time. Or at least not completely out of the race until August instead of May. I am willing to make this trade-off. Hopefully this time it will really happen, and there is something fundamentally different about our chances this time. The plan on the moment is built on an actual (I can’t believe I’m going to say this) process, rather than fairy dust and wishes. It can still all go to hell, but I’ll take this over the crap we’ve put up with in the past decade and a half. And maybe DM isn’t the guy to get us to the finish line of contention, but I don’t think you can deny that under his tenure as GM, an important, vital part of the necessary steps of reforming this organization was undertaken pretty successfully, i.e. rebuilding the farm system. Maybe we’ll need a different GM to get our ML team together (and given most of his ML moves, I kind of think so), but I don’t think we would ever be in contention again if we didn’t get the farm system together.
by Gross(est) on Dec 20, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
To me, it's just a bit sad that
The upside is “well, we did the best we could given the circumstances” rather than “that’s a good haul!” and the downside is “conceivably not a single above average MLBer” but that’s a little higher than “none of them will even make it because they’re high ceiling”
Oh, I think the upside is considerably higher than that.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think the realistic upside is
Orlando Cabrera, Joey Gathright, and a pair of lottery ticket arms, one of which has already been converted to RP as he can’t hang as an SP. That’s a little depressing for 2 year of Zack.
I mean, prospects are prospects but I think of the last 4 “ace”-caliber deals, Gomez, LaPorta, Smoak, and Drabek all had significantly higher upside than Escobar, in my mind.
We've got to stop this "lottery ticket" meme
It implies that prospects really aren’t very valuable. All prospects are lottery tickets. None are sure things. Not even top 10 prospects. Good prospects are valuable, even though they may fail.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry, but there's really a reason why TNSTAAPP was coined
The pitchers really are a lot more of a lottery than hitters. There’s a reason why teams are much more reticent to give up good young hitters in trades.
I understand that, but do you write off all Royals pitching prospects as mere lottery tickets
…and therefore of little value?
Oh, and there’s no reason to think Cain’s upside is Joey Gathright. Compare what they had both done by the same age in the minors. It’s not close. Cain has been better. To say that his realistic upside is a well below average CFer is unsupportable.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
Also, the projections for next year (so far) have Escobar at a .305 wOBA.
Cliff Pennington his .250/.319/.368 for a .315 wOBA and had a 8.8 UZR/150. All of this came out to a 3.7 WAR last year. If Escobar can get a little better luck next year and his defensive reputation holds true..I think the possiblity of Escobar having a few nice seasons is still significant. Not a lock, but I think he can still be an above-average SS in this league while he’s young.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Dec 19, 2010 2:29 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Five seasons of 3 WAR performance out of SS would be a very nice return indeed.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
but that wouldn't make him a superstar!
The Royals needed a superstar in this deal!!!
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well I'm not predicting it or anything.....
….but I think that judging him entirely on his rookie year is pretty weak. It’s obvious he’s never going to be a great hitter, but if his D is really good, he only needs to be a mediocre hitter to have value. Pennington was a really, really good player last year with a below average OBP and little power…so it’s possible to be good without an above average bat.
Killing time until time kills me
and ZIPS projections have Escobar at .269/.315/.368.
I’ll take that line from an above-average D SS.
Killing time until time kills me
To be clear too. BA’s take on Escobar’s defense going into 2010 was gold glove caliber, not just above avg
by WURoyal on Dec 19, 2010 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Possible future Escobar math
-10 batting
+8 fielding
20 replacement
7 positional adj.
total is 25 RAR or 2.5 WAR
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Those numbers now jogged memory. He is a Rey Sanchez clone.
I will take that at SS for a few years. Now, if we only could get some real OFers.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
Woo! I don't remember if I was the first one to bring it up
But I believe I did drop a “Rey Sanchez” reference in the other thread :D
Sorry man.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm awful at knowing prospects, comps, and projections
If I came to the same conclusion as you, someone much better, than I’m happy that it’s one of the two times today my broke clock is right :D
Omar Vizquel during his prime?
That’s the Escobar comp that came to mind for me
I loathe David Glass
Rey was weird
With the Royals his batting was much worse than that, and his fielding was much better. He was more of a -20/+20 guy
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
A more upside potential-ly future possibility
-5 batting
+12 fielding
20 replacement
7 positional adj.
total is 34 RAR or 3.4 WAR
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
He's at least our #3 now
if we can sign him
Haters gonna hate!
Go Royals, Chiefs and Blues!
by theroyalblues on Dec 19, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I thought we already did
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
by averagegatsby on Dec 19, 2010 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Nope
Last thing according to MLBTR was that he was seeking a multi-year deal
What about the "Can't be traded to same Yuni is"
clause in Greinke’s contract?
Spanish Club President, Park Hill High, 1991-92
by jackie ballgame on Dec 19, 2010 2:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
why do you think he fired his agent?
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
We are all missing the real point of the deal
All this Greinke trade talk and “demand” to be traded was all a conspiracy to get some other team to take Yuni off our hands
Mission successful… Enjoy YuBet Brewers fans… suckers!
by billski8 on Dec 19, 2010 2:56 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
this, we just set their franchise back a good decade
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I am starting to think one of DM parameters
was that to make sure that he was trading Greinke to a NL team…
Rumors have it that they were close to a deal with the Nats and he ended up in Mil…
Just something to think about.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
There was a tweet to that effect a couple of hours ago. We know that Greinke likes to bat.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
I am curious who the LAD where trying to acquire to bolster their trade package
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
he has more value in the NL
He can legitimately hold a bat. Even if he’s not a “hitter”, he will see plenty of PH opportunities through the season, hitting for relief pitchers when they don’t want to burn a player.
Just that prospect alone should help his pitching, by giving him a distraction.
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
wouldn't want him to come back to Kauffman Stadium to face the 2011 Royals
because that would be a total asswhipping. Motivated Greinke v. the 2011 Royals would probably mean a 1 hitter
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Hmm
I think the Royals won this trade, however no one will really know how much the Royals won until Odorizzi makes progress.
The Royals now feature a more youthful and balanced lineup with a real centerfielder and a young, rising SS in Escobar.
Cain
Aviles
Butler
Kila
Francoeur
Gordon
Betemit
May
Escobar
I also think the Royals will sign a free agent pitcher, perhaps Jeff Francis if his contract demands land on earth.
I was just putting together the lineup in my head and came up with basically the same top 6,
But replace Betemit with Pena, May w/ Getz and flip him and Escobar.
Uhm did you forget Kendall?
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Dec 19, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
Man, does that line up suck.
Moose can’t get here quick enough.
other factors....
1. What does this drop payroll to? It certainly gives us the payroll flexibilty to lock up some guys long term!….now…who do we want to lock up.. besides kendall?
Does Cain, Escobar, Getz, give us a legitimate up the middle defense? How does that bode for hard luck Luke, and the rest of the staff?
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
So Moore has dealt away
four top-100 Royals (by Win Shares) this year alone (DeJesus, Greinke, Callaspo, and a former major-league outfielder). If he wasn’t in full-on rebuilding mode in his first 4+ years on the job, trying to shore up the major league roster at the same time he was rebuilding the farm system, he is now.
At least the Royals are maximizing the coverage of this deal
by holding the press conference at 4pm today
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Oh here go hell come...
Royals just posted on Facebook… Hilarity ensues
Kaleb Unger This trade sucks. Not only did we trade our Cy Young winner, but we traded one of our best clutch-hitters. And for what? Another outfielder, a suspect shortstop, and a pitcher with only about as much talent as Zack has in his left pinky-toe. I’m really getting tired of this. When are we going to build a team and keep the players here? KC is never going to get any better if we keep trading away talent for crap. Someone needs to slap Dayton and kick David Glass in his nuts. You can’t run a team like Wal-Mart!!!
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
let's be accurate
This team is not run like WalMart. WalMart has been successful.
It’s run like Dirty Don’s Discount Center. We take freight-damaged players, random junk we find at the goodwill, an occasional prospect, and we offer them at low prices just off of Raytown Road
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
by BHWick on Dec 19, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
at least he had this right:
Someone needs to slap Dayton and kick David Glass in his nuts
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 19, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
yes
another soup watcher
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
Crow might make the team.
Hochevar
Mazzaro
Davies
Crow
Chen
…and the Royals have 9 OFers on the 40 man
Dyson, Gordon, Cabrera, Francouer, Maier, Blanco, Cain, Lough and Robinson
should Gordon go back to third?
lol
I don't think we've resigned Chen yet
so really, the rotation is Hochevar, Davies, O’Sullivan, Mazzaro, and Jerry Mathers as the Beaver right now
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
by BHWick on Dec 19, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Forget about Crow in 2011
Hochevar
Mazzaro
Davies
O’Sullivan
Cheap FA/Teaford/Duffy
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
good god
unless Hoch and Mazzaro have really good years, the Royals are going to be lucky to win 50 games lol
The 2011 season was a punt from the beginning
With or without greinke
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
it didn't have to be historically bad
now with a team with no hitting or pitching or defense….this is 1962 Mets territory
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
actually
this may be the best defensive team we’ve had in years. that in turn may help a few borderline pitchers look decent, but all this will be overshadowed by the stream of monkeys flying out dayton’s butt.
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
that really isn't saying much
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
yeah, we could have kept Greinke and had him go down with a sinking, awful ship
And gotten nothing for him than draft picks, which would ahve been worth less than what we have.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
I thought Moore knew how to draft
I could be wrong
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Draft picks are worth less (on average) than minor leaguers who have performed well and established themselves as good prospects
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And in this particular situation
If you compare the projected production of the young players/prospects we got in this deal two the two draft picks we would get (and the average production from picks at that level), this trade comes out well ahead. It’s not particularly close.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
my headline was cut off
it was meant to say:
“and draft picks cost more, generally.”
unless you're Billy Beane?
just sayin
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Crow is just 3 levels away!
I wish MinorLeagueSplits didn’t go on vacation so that we can check Teaford’s splits between relieving and starting from Springdale. But he does have one start in Omaha.
Wonder how much the Royals have to give up for Kenshin Kurakami
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Let's spend a lot of money to get the Royals to 70 wins in 2011
Woohoo!
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
What do you think Melky and Francoeur are here for?
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
multiculturalism
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
by who am i? on Dec 19, 2010 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
So Moore should triple down on his already bad moves?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't suggest Kurakami
at the same time, there is a giant freaking hole in the rotation now, and really only 2 major league quality guys in the rotation out of the 4 we know of.
All this “service time!” “youth!” “upside!” chanting doesn’t change the facts of life with this rotation
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Right, the 2011 team is going to suck
And we shouldn’t let impatience screw up the rebuilding process. Building a contender is the only thing that matters. I’m not going to whine about a losing season in a rebuilding process.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
In the scheme of things
2011 being historically bad might be beneficial if there’s a new GM in 2012.
But I’m suspecting this team is really an experiment put together by Dr. Forrester and TV’s Frank to test Mike Nelson’s mind right now
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Let's commission the guys to do
A Rifftrax for the entire 2011 and 2012 seasons!
by Soria's Unibrow on Dec 19, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
whaddya think he did today?
The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.
Why do you bother with these worthless posts?
You haven’t even attempted to analyze this trade. You’ve just said it sucks and everyone in it sucks and Moore sucks and the team sucks. Your posts aren’t worth the energy you’ve taken to make them. Go whine on Facebook with the others of your kind.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Ho, now, that was a low-blow, NYRoyal.
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
I crossed the line
And suspeneded myself for an hour.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
I've been a big fan...
ever since I saw him play in the minors at Metzger Field.
"We had opportunities when we smoked balls," manager Ned Yost said.
by Diggity Dawg on Dec 19, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
These are all viewable on Netflix. I think the first 5 or 6 seasons.
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
I was about to do my Metzger's Field research
but found that they’re not streaming these at present, alas.
maybe
they can invest some $$$ in upgrading Tim & his cheerleaders? Maybe get Garth to come sing live during our pitching changes?
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
they should do something fucked up along these lines
But like…hire Harmony Korine or David Lynch or some weirdo like that to be the Master of Ceremonies for something like a 2-week home stand. Give them free reign, lay out the boundaries for them, and just let them have at it. They can pick the songs, create contests, short films, lights, fountains……everything pre-game and between innings that doesn’t interfere with the game. They pick the singer of the national anthem, too.
Or, you have a contest where the winner gets to curate one game in the same way described above. Yes.
"Hey, maybe he really does like everyone. But if you like everyone, do you actually like anyone?" - big matt
Payroll update
Including my arbitration estimates, the Royals are going to be on the hook for $47.29M to 19 players plus Arguelles, Crow and Cruz. Add in league minimum to six players and you’ve got a total of $49.77M. Earlier in the offseason, Moore said the payroll would end up being in the low 60’s. That means the Royals have about $10-14M to work with.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:43 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
No, it makes you a smart fan who is wiling to accept some more crap in exchange for genuine help for the future
but there would be many (including many in this thread) who will whine about the Royals not putting a legitimate MLB team on the field. And it is these geniuses who must enjoy Moore going out and spending millions on place fillers like Farnsy, HoRam, Pods, Ankiel, Kendall, Francoeur and Melky.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
That's not entirely fair
given that we’ve all agreed he could have done better for less than he spent on those guys.
Most, but not all have agreed with that
Some really like the “upside” of Francoeur and Melky.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
Still, you don't have to like those moves, individually or as a type,
if you’re unhappy about the level of talent on the major league roster.
To be fair, the stupid MLB spending hasn't exactly gotten in the way
It shows he’s a horrible judge of MLB talent. But he’s spent a ton in the draft and Latin America over the past 5 years, increased the scouting and minor league budget, etc. I’m not sure what else he could have wisely done. Yes, he could have sat on his hands, signed some fliers for major league minimum or close, and not blown that money- that’s what I would have done. But what he stupidly spent money on at the major league level so far hasn’t affected the minors except for blocking a couple of players (Kila most notably, but who else, really?)
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll enjoy watching the team next year
Escobar and Cain are worth rooting for. Once Moustakas and Hosmer are called up, the everyday line-up will primarily consist of players considered to be part of the future. Compare that to last year when it was….Butler and a splash of Gordon.
We'll see
I’m guessing July/August, although Butler/Kila might mean there’s no playing time.
My bet is June 2012
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 7:27 PM EST up reply actions
i agree
although, if he’s up at any point this year, thats a great sign for how things went for him from april to june
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
My bet is Hosmer Sept callup this season
back to Omaha next season with a June callup
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
But that Sept. callup time is on his service clock
If he spends a Sept. 2011 in KC, then in order to get an extra year of service time out of him, they’d have to wait to call him up until July 2012.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't sure if it was June or July
I’m guessing he’s going to push his way to a couple months short of Moose
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
no i don't think so
arbitration clock, yes, but not service time.
but i don’t think a sept. call up because they won’t want to add him to the 40-man if it’s not necessary.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
umm...im pretty sure it counts towards service time as well
it seems like the only thing it doesnt count for is rookie of the year stuff
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, days on a MLB roster (or MLB DL) are MLB service time
Regardless of the month it occurs.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
And arbitration clock comes from days of service time too
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
maybe i'm not being clear
i mean if Hosmer is called up in September, we wouldn’t have to wait until July to call him up to push back the service clock. it’d be like mid or end of May. it would be July for the arbitration clock.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
whatever the dates are....
it will push his arrival for good in kc back a month….i’d prefer an extra month in 2012 than september of 2011
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:28 PM EST up reply actions
this i agree with and it's part of the reason i don't think he'll be up in 2011
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Next year'r 40 man roster construction is going to
be pretty tough.
Go Royals!
Wow- no kidding.
Just looked at the roster:
http://mlb.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=kc
Greinke and B9YS are already gone
Escobar and Cain replaced them
Jeffress added resulted in Joaquin Arias being DFAd
Leaving next year:
Ol Man Kendall
Gil Meche
Melky Cabrera
Frenchy
How many guys are about to hit the point where they need to be protected?
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
I'd have zero problems
with dumping Kendall. The 3.75 is already shot.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
there's still a ton of dead wood
barerra, pucetas, chavez, pina a couple of mitch, blanco, dyson, and clint
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, just noticed
How is Jesse Chavez still there, for instance
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
2007 HS draftees and 2008 college guys
So, among others, Moose, Duffy, Giavotella, and Hayenga. But many of those types who will actually contribute are going to be in KC by that point—Hayenga is the only one of those who won’t be ready, and he’d need to become very advanced this year for another team to take a chance on him. Otherwise, it’s a lot of organizational filler (eg Carlo Testa, J.D. Alfaro, Ivor Hodgson) or injury slowed guys (such as Matt Mitchell) who won’t need protecting.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 20, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Yes, I doubt that anyone not currently on the 40 man makes
it to the majors this year. Yes it counts toward service time, but you have three option years to mess with that anyway.
Go Royals!
moustakas?
are collins and coleman on the 40 man?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
they'll all be up this season
that might be it though…of guys that are of any consequence at least
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Is it so bad to want a couple of MLB fliers too?
I get that we shouldn’t go out and sink 3 yrs and 40 mill into Carl Pavano, but would 1 or 2 years thrown at Jeff Francis tear this franchise apart? As sterling points out below, MLB spending hasn’t done much to curb amateur talent acquisition.
Time to load up
on the “second wave.” There needs to be a bunch of rich Dominican 16 year olds wearing Royals jerseys by the end of the 2011.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
No point spending that money now
2011 is beyond punted. Nobody’s on the market that would be worth signing now to improve the team in 2012 and beyond. Too bad it just turns into extra profit for Glass. I hope they can bump up the international/draft budgets by $10M, but I doubt it’ll happen.
All right,
it seems like there are about five people commenting in here. It’s mostly sm7600 spewing mostly baseless vitriol and NYRoyal acting as the voice of reason with BHWick jumping in to get sm7600’s back.
Fun…
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 19, 2010 3:49 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
might want to read some posts
let’s just say i’m mostly using actual words and analysis. And this herd mentality just doesn’t cut it here.
I’ll be happy when Dayton Moore gets fired, because of days like this. I’m not invested in a ponzi scheme
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
You keep on using that word.
I do not think it means what you think it means.
by kcdc1 on Dec 19, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
"Analysis"?
Yeah, I agree.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors, rather than from any actual profit earned.
A Dayton scheme is a baseball investment operation that gets more prospects in return for former talent and an occasional good players while continually promising the big profit is just around the corner.
So it might be more like the Movementarians and the magic barn
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Oh, I get it!
You don’t like rebuilding at all? You want your playoff team right now! And if you don’t get it you’re going to throw fits until Dayton Moore stops trading players and starts spending big money on FA’s. Wow, you’re worse than DM.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
wasn't Dayton Moore incompetent a few days ago?
the defense for Dayton essentially is a “future upside” defense.
Well, when it’s not a logical fallacy-ridden “You hate rebuilding” load of browbeating.
There has to be an endgame here, and Dayton Moore does not have an endgame and he does not have a process.
Major League GMs who note their focus on the farm system and sustainability are as plentiful as politicians who run on platforms of reducing crime and increasing prosperity. No Major League GMs openly say that they don’t care about the farm system. No politicians openly say they don’t care about crime rates.
For the sake of perspective, I got into the baseball world in 1993ish, and was born days after the Royals WS victory. So 1994 was our year. Then the entire operation has went to hell for the last 16 years. So Dayton Moore’s promises are the same stuff, higher budget.
I outlasted Bob Boone, Tony Muser, Allard Baird, Tony Pena, Buddy Bell, and Trey Hillman. I suspect I will outlast Dayton Moore as long as I stay away from ten-ton trucks, Hawaiian residency, or an interest in the underworld Numbers Game.
The big difference between now and then is the volume of the hype. And that will be right until either a perfect storm happens, or Dayton Moore somehow turns into a good egg.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Yeah, he's incompetent. And he's been making a half-assed attempt at rebuilding
What he’s done right is draft well, develop fairly well and not trade prospects, except for Cortes and Gutierrez. In short, he’s been building a future without mortgaging the future. He could have done a better job at this. He could have spent less on mediocre FA’s and more on the draft and L.A.. He could have wisely signed cheap, decent, good value FA’s as stopgaps. He could have gotten more for DDJ (and a lot more if he’d wisely traded him 2 or more years ago). He could be shopping Soria for the better future of the MLB team.
If you don’t think that DM is actually trying to rebuild for the future, you’re nuts. The only serious questions are 1) how good of a job is he doing? and 2) once the prospects arrive, will Moore be able to effectively put the rest of a team around those players?
Basically you just sound like an impatient fan who rejects the concept of rebuilding because you want to win now. Unfortunately, that’s just not realistic. But it’s clear that you don’t care about reality. You want what you want. I suggest you hold your breath until you get it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not doubting that he's trying
but he doesn’t get a smiley face sticker on his paper for trying hard. It’s about results and he has his own variety of flaws that cast doubt on his long-term abilities.
I’ve been patient for 16 years. I’ve heard of a constant rumor of a Youth Movement for 16 years. And yet it keeps falling short. And unless the reality of a major league roster changes, there’ll be two things you can take to the bank
1) That the prospects should not be expected to save this team. But they will be. And the pressure on them is going to inflict a lot of damage. I would be pleasantly surprised if the pressure placed on Alex Gordon is not put on Mike Moustakas, for one.
2) That the non-prospect part of the team is going to be just as important as the prospects. Factors of who is brought in to compliment what we have, make up for what we don’t have, and who blocks who will occur. I’m not particularly confident that DM is going to downgrade the short-time starters to their rightful place of part-time players. This organization hasn’t platooned in a long time, going back to Baird and beyond.
Mike Moustakas is not going to save the Royals. No one player is saving the Royals. No group of 5 prospects is saving the Royals. The only way for the Royals to turn things around are to get the talent here, and allow it the opportunity to blossom fully. Not to rush the people involved, put them in unreasonable situations of pressure, or block them when they’ve topped a level in the minor leagues.
I don’t see this organization as a 21st century organization. It seems to be clinging to the idea that what worked in the past in a bigger market is going to work in a smaller market with less talent. And we’ve already seen two Schuerholz GMs get fired in similar situations to what DM is doing. Although if you want to use the Moore Achievement Scale, he’s better than Chuck LaMar, Which is to say that someone is a better a cook than someone who set his house on fire cooking a turkey a few years in a row.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
You're all over the place
If you’re arguing that the Royals have a great minor league system, but not all prospects will succeed and Moore will need to augment them with a lot of other talent and he’s likely not good enough to do that well and therefore the team ultimately will not succeed, then I agree with you and I’ve been saying that for quite a while.
But that analysis has nothing to do with the Greinke trade, and it doesn’t affect the quality of this trade. Moore has added pieces which should help the Royals future. It probably won’t matter because he’ll make enough mistake to keep the team out of the playoffs, despite some successful prospects.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
the system has good players
but the “greatest system ever” stuff isn’t warranted right now.
Moore will need to augment the 25 man roster with players from outside the system even if the blue chip prospects are successful. We’re not getting 9 guys in the minors right now in the batting order in 2013. We’re not getting 5 guys in the minors right now in the pitching rotation in 2013. And if we did, the other 11 players on the team might be surprisingly important.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
He's entitled to his opinion, but that's only one data point
Callis at BA says it is the best of the last 10 years. Others at BA are fawning over it as not only clearly #1 in MLB, but also a particularly great #1 due to depth and the number of truly high ceiling guys at the top.
And of course you’re right that the minor league system isn’t going to be near enough to get the Royals into the playoffs. That doesn’t mean that this is a bad trade. That doesn’t mean Moore shouldn’t have traded for young, cost-controlled players. It seems like you’re conflating “Moore is bad” with “this trade is bad” and “anythying Moore does is bad.”
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Goldstein said in his podcast that he doesn't know if it is the best system ever
but it is ridiculously rich with talent at the top and depth throughout. Its hard to say what system is the best of alltime because they flow thru different years. It is definitely one of the best groups of talent in the minors and results in the bigs are all that is left to decide if it is the greatest ever.
No publication has it not rated #1 from what I’ve heard and that matters.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
by kcscoliny on Dec 19, 2010 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The thing to do with Soria now
isn’t to trade him. It is to convert him to a starter. What time like the present?
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
Son, I watched the great teams of the 70s on TV in my elementary school classroom…and I’m hear to tell you I have more hope for this team now than any time since Mr. K passed away.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
"It's all just meaningless hype"
Apparently all of the prospect analysts are just nuts in saying the Royals have a bunch of great prospects. Prospects are worthless.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
that's like being the smartest of the 3 stooges
this team has had 2 winning seasons since July 1993, one full winning season since 2003, and maybe we can count the end of 1993 to feel better about ourselves. It’s one hell of a curve to compare Moore to the worst of what we’ve seen.
But it’s not some mighty competition considering that for almost 10 years post-strike, the minor league system wasn’t good.
Don’t be surprised when I’m skeptical when prospect-fanatics like Goldstein start the “Royals farm system is the best i’ve ever seen” talk. if it happens, it’ll happen.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Don’t be surprised when I’m skeptical when prospect-fanatics like Goldstein start the "Royals farm system is the best i’ve ever seen" talk. if it happens, it’ll happen.
All of the prospect analysts are saying things like that. Are they all full of shit? BTW, your fan heartbreak doesn’t make their analysis any less accurate.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
for the people not on Twitter, Goldstein said “Couple of days ago I was wondering if the #Royals system was the best I’ve seen since doing what I do. It certainly is now.”
But that’s not a prelude to disappointment or anything.
If I wanted to be meaner on the topic, I’d say 10,000 lemmings can’t be wrong. Baseball prospect analysis is heavily influenced by word of mouth and other people’s point of view. And in a field where it can all fall apart, that makes the proclamations even less reliable.
But in the scheme of things, having the best farm system in the major leagues is hardly a ticket to having one of the 3 best teams in baseball (or even AL Central contention). It’s gonna take more than some prospects to contend.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
It’s gonna take more than some prospects to contend.
How many times do I have to agree with this? I’ve been saying this for a long time. Moore has done a great job with the minors, but he’s eventually going to have to do good work at the MLB level.
You keep focusing on KG at BP. Every prospect analyst I’ve read has been raving over the Royals system. If you want to argue that a great system isn’t enough, that’s fine. I agree. But if you are trying to argue that the system really isn’t that great, you’re all alone. Everyone recognizes it is a great system full of good prospects. Is everyone else a lemming and you’re right? The people at BA (and many other places) know more about prospects than you or I. I don’t know why you reject the analysis of all of those people and replace it with your own.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
You are using your unstoppable "I hate Dayton Moore!!!!!!!!!!111" energy to bash this trade
It has nothing to do with trade analysis, which you really haven’t attempted at all. It’s all about how “these guys suck” with no support and “Dayton Moore is an idiot!” which may be true but does not analyze this trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
I try to be fair in my analysis of the Royals and Dayton Moore
When Moore does something good, bad or ok, I try to recognize it as such.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Let's be fair- most people here try to do just that
I realize it’s not everyone. But sometimes we’re going to reach different conclusions and there is a huge difference between two people looking at the same thing and drawing two different conclusions and two people just stick with their entrenched viewpoints.
I think it’s perfectly reasonable to look at GMDM’s major league record and see that he’s not very good at trading his major league players or judging major league talent. It’s also perfectly reasonable to look at GMDM’s track record and say he’s good at judging prospects.
This trade, viewed through each lens, which are both arguably right, is going to end up with diametrically opposed viewpoints for this particular trade and, frankly, it’s gong to take us 5 years to know which is going to be right. But we can all speculate. It’s what we do :D
But should any trade be viewed through a "lens" of how one of the GM's has performed in trades in the past?
Shouldn’t trades be evaluated based on the talent, performance, money and team control years involved? One shouldn’t assume a trade is good because a GM has had good trades in the past, nor should one assume the negative version of that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Usually, you irritate me with what I view has hyper cynism, However today you seem very on point, I am falling in love with you today.
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
It won't last
Moore is going to spend some of the $10+M he has in the MLB payroll budget. I doubt he’ll spend it well. I won’t react positively.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I don't expect you to defend stupid moves. I just like objective people.
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Dec 19, 2010 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
I always attempt objectivity
It’s just than an objective analysis of Dayton Moore and his moves has led to my cynicism. I hope my analysis is way off.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
He's generally a dick, but he's an objective one.
/no offense NY
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Dec 19, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yikes!
Ok, that’s fair. :)
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
While past performance is not perfectly indicative of future results
There is some correlation. As none of us are experts in MLB scouting, it’s just another data point in our overall analysis
And has Dayton Moore's overall track record in trades been bad?
There have been good and bad trades, but overall has been meh.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
if you wanna be even more technical
I haven’t replied to any threads after sm7600. Or in support of him.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Just similar quality "analysis"
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not writing essays to debunk falsehoods
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Yeah, you're providing no support for your nonsensical statements
Keep up the good work, kid.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
So all the analysis I have read
Says this is “Quantity over Quality” which tallies with my own reaction.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing if it secures multiple positions with average or slightly above production for a number of years.
I guess it feels right now like a push, which means its probably a fair deal.
Assuming that 'the process' is rebuilding through homegrown and acquiring young cost controlled players,
this trade actually fits DM’s ‘Process’. (Unlike many of his other acquisitions in recent years.)
Things I'd like to see...
Zack’s expression when he learned Yuni was still his SS.
"I've seen the future and it's much like the present only longer." - Dan Quisenberry
by Safe@First on Dec 19, 2010 3:52 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
I'm not reading all of these posts
So some of this may repeat. It’s an okay deal. We probably/certainly overanticipated what could reasonably be achieved in the deal. They probably couldn’t get Profar or Perez from Texas, probably couldn’t get Montero from the Yanks, couldn’t get both Snider and Drabek from Toronto, and certainly couldn’t get more than one top prospect in any deal. They got some value, will have cost-controlled upside at two premium positions, get a RH starting prospect. Not a top-shelf prospect, but there’s good stuff there.
My favorite part is really the Yuni and $2 Million throw in. DM:“Okay, but you gotta take Yuni.” Brewers: “Well, if we have to, but you’re paying for him.” DM: “Deal” Getting rid of Yuni is the best thing Moore’s done in well over a year.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 3:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And the $2M really only pays for Yuni's buyout when the Brewers don't pick up his option
They are still on the hook for his $4M salary.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
Are the Mariners done kicking in?
I thought they were still paying $2M or so (although that could have just been for last year).
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
$1M per year through 2011
His salary is $4M. He would have only cost the Royals $3M due to money from the M’s. The Royals are sending $2M, presumably to pay for the buyout.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
wowzers, i fuckin wake up late and all hell has frozen over
wtf just happened
Do these effectively hide my thunder?
You didn't hear?
Our clutchiest hitter has gone to Beertown, and we are all sad.
by 2X2L on Dec 19, 2010 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
i'm sad there will no longer be a haters gonna hate picture of Yuni
that is the real tragedy of this transaction
Do these effectively hide my thunder?
Plus plus hands!
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Odorizzi report if anyone hasn't seen it yet sorry if posted already
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
While he was the top starting pitching prospect in the Brewers system, and will be in the Top 101 prospects, he’s suddenly the fifth-best pitching prospect in a loaded Royals system. I’d slot him as the eighth-best prospect in an updated Royals Top 11, which is amazing considering that he’d be an easy top-three selection in most organizations.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So he's not Perez from the Rangers, but he's the "Greinke Replacement" in the trade
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 19, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
NYRoyal...
I would love to see a post/thread by you debunking (or at least slowing down) the “problem is that Glass is cheap” mentality. Basically an analysis of what it would take to BUY a contending team via free agency.
Specifically a thoretical team that we could have if they had gone all in the last couple years and outbid everybody for whatever FAs were available.
-What would the roster look like?
-How many are total busts?
-What is our record?
- What is the payroll? (and of course how does that translate to beer & parking prices at the K)
My gut is that without having a well stocked farm to trade up, we would have to have Yankee’esque payrolls to even get 90 wins… if it’s even possible (see Orioles, Baltimore)
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
I would rather you write it ;)
It would kind of depend on what the payroll budget is with this hypothetical “all-in” effort. You could build a great, but extremely expensive team with a lot of FA signings. And then would one only include the best possible value FA signings with no clunkers in the bunch? While interesting, that is unrealistic. Every GM is going to blow some FA signings.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
in my theoretical world
it would be essentially unlimited budget. Whoever the top free agents are, say 2008 & 2009….. with their actual outcomes for 2010. Basically an EVEN IF scenario.
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of course building by position
you wouldnt go, gobble up every SS or C, just the best one you thought was available… if they get hurt, or just plain suck, you are SOL at that position.
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whatd the brewers give up for C.C.
and how does this compare to that
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
This has a pretty good list of recent deals
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove10/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5935920
• In February 2008, Minnesota sent Johan Santana to the New York Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra. That package looks good only if Santana’s recent shoulder problems obliterate what’s left of his career.
• In July 2008, the Cleveland Indians sent CC Sabathia to Milwaukee and got Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson in return. LaPorta, who was supposed to be a monster bat, has a .694 OPS in 162 games with Cleveland.
• Between July of 2009 and 2010, Cliff Lee was the centerpiece of three trades that brought a total of 11 prospects to the Indians, Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners. If anyone out there knows for sure that big things are in store for Justin Smoak, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Phillippe Aumont, Josh Lueke or Blake Beavan, feel free to raise your hand.
*The best recent haul for an elite starting pitcher was garnered by the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent Roy Halladay to Philadelphia last December in exchange for catcher Travis D’Arnaud, pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Michael Taylor, who turned into outfield prospect Anthony Gose after two subsequent spin-off trades.
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
k
thanks
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
The centerpiece of the CC deal has certainly worked out well
Two MLB seaons, and a total of -0.1 WAR.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
The Santana one is more damning to me
Still, we’re talking about young players with limited MLB experience. What happened to the NYRoyal who was asking for patience ;)
I have patience
I just don’t understand peole like the CC deal more. Are a bunch of guys in that trade great talents who are about to break through in the majors? Maybe, but it hasn’t worked too well so far.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Not great comps because Greinke had two years left
Santana only had one year left, Sabathia was about three months, Lee I was one and half, Lee II was one year, Lee III was a little over two months, and Halladay was one year.
Trades for top line starters with two years left that come to mind are Dan Haren (for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, etc.) and Eric Bedard (Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, etc.).
my biggest fear
is that Choptle’s will fold in the KC market
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by who am i? on Dec 19, 2010 4:37 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This is a bad trade for the Royals
As in the poll option “bad.” I think it avoids the “horrible” option by default, as trading Greinke for young players was absolutely the right thing to do. I have to believe that anyone who scores this as a positive for the Royals is a little bit delusional.
-——
This is a scout valuing tools over stats, make no mistake about that. But it’s also a GM shitting the bed over the roster construction of a hypothetical team. For those of you who were dreading the thought of GMDM trying to assemble a major league roster with our farm system… well, welcome to your Nightmare, because the onslaught has already begun. The most likely scenario is that none of these players become core assets to build around, which is unforgivable when you’re trading away one of the top building blocks in the game.
It’s not that some of these players won’t be useful. Odorizzi is a good prospect; Alcides Escobar could reasonably expect to see his .264 BABIP improve by 50 to 60 points; Jefress could quickly become a dirt-cheap Robinson Tejeda; Lorenzo Cain… has a pretty sweet name? But what this move does show is that Moore is completely uncreative. When you’re trading a player like Greinke, you trade for the absolute most upside you can get. If you are going to sacrifice some talent for the sake of roster construction, you do it in smaller trades, not the one that may define your career.
And for those who are quoting Goldstein, keep in mind that Goldstein is basing his opinion as much or more on the notion that Greinke is good rather than spectacular asset. Like NYRoyal, I have to opine that this is absolutely bat-shit crazy. Not only is he wrong about that, he’s so wrong that it makes me question his opinion in general.
by sumajestad on Dec 19, 2010 4:44 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I don't follow
If you are going to sacrifice some talent for the sake of roster construction, you do it in smaller trades, not the one that may define your career.
Are you saying that Moore should have traded control of Greinke in 2011 separately from 2012? Or are you saying that he should have traded his services as a hitter, pitcher, and fielder separately?
I assume he’s saying that when you want to fill a hole, you do it in a small trade. But when you trade a massive talent like Greinke, you need to trade him for the most elite talent you can get in return. And apparently he believes this trade was more about filling holes with decent young players and not about maximizing the talent return.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
There’s a lot of that kind of assuming being done. Who knows. I do know that there aren’t any reports of offers better than that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
And in this regard, he is quite possibly on point.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
Cain is a sweet name
My 9-month-old laughs every time I’ve said “Lorenzo Cain” today, so I guess he’s gonna be her favorite player until she hits 7 or so.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Well said
and exactly what i’ve been thinking… This is the opposite of what the Ranger’s did when they dealt Mark Texiera in 2007.
The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013
seems like an incredibly similar haul to me
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
Not really. The Rangers got a couple of guys with off the chart potential but who were at a very low level.
Escobar/Cain might compare similarly in the prospect ranking community to Salty/Harrison.
But, in Andrus and Feliz, the Rangers each had at least one tool that had tools, but much less polish, that rated better than the best tool the Royals just got.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Before he was traded to the Rangers
Feliz was ranked #93. Odorozzi will be in the top-100 towards the bottom end.
Andrus was ranked in the top-20 once before his promotion, like Escobar [though I think most would agree that Escobar’s glove > Andrus glove while Andrus bat >> Escobar’s bat.
Cain and Harrison might be a fair comparison
Salty was the big name in the deal. In this case, the big name is Escobar. Jeffress might be the second coming of Feliz [a plus-plus pitch and some other marginal offerings].
Except Jeffress has two plus plus pitches when his curve is working, and Feliz’s repetoire is a little beyond marginal. His curveball and changeup both look to be above average.
Feliz’s change is really inconsistent. When he started throwing it in the Majors upon his call-up in 2009, everyone was kind of shocked that it was working given his struggles with his change in the minors. It would appear that it wasn’t working for him in 2010, as his usage dropped from 10.1% to 3.2%, and that isn’t a weird disparity on pitch identification. His change was -0.1 runs below average in 2009 and dropped to -0.5.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
I completely disagree with trading for fit with small trades in this situation.
For everyone saying that looking for up the middle players was dumb, answer me this: Who are the last 5 elite SS prospects that have been traded after killing AA or above? I don’t know, maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like these types of players are almost exclusively off trade lists. If this is true, trading someone like Greinke is the only way you have a chance at an impact player of this type.
That being said, I would have preferred one great player (SS or CF) over two pretty good ones. And if you can get way better prospects that aren’t at those positions, you have to take it. But if they are relatively equal, I have no problem trying to get these positions. Overall, I don’t disagree with DMs strategy, if real offers were roughly as reported. I not jumping for joy over the trade, but I slightly like it.
yep
That being said, I would have preferred one great player (SS or CF) over two pretty good ones
This to me is either Dayton’s biggest flaw….. or a dumb PR game he pulls (maybe both).
If we need a “right handed hitting left fielder with power, speed, good OBP & great defense” He will go on a signing spree and we get:
1. A right handed hitter (with no power, speed, defense, or OBP)
2. A left fielder ((that’s left handed, with no power, speed, defense, or OBP)
3. A hitter with power (that’s left handed, with no speed, defense, or OBP)
4. A speedy guy (that’s left handed, with no power, defense, or OBP)
5. A plus defender ( (that’s left handed, with no speed, power, or OBP)
6. A super utility guy that can play (poorly) anywhere on the field
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I love how
None of those rhetorical signings have good OBP even though he had gone on the rhetorical record as saying he was looking for good OBP. It shows a clear understanding of how Dayton works, even in thought exercises.
by Soria's Unibrow on Dec 19, 2010 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
he only said he wanted to understand the importance of OBP
not actually use it to his advantage
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
There's only one way this trade works out for me
And that’s if the idea is that somehow Hochevar will turn into a slightly lesser version of Greinke with a decent infield defense behind him, and said idea pans out.
Escobar… NYRoyal has a point in that you can’t read too much into what he did last season. But looking at his overall numbers, I’m not entirely convinced that last season isn’t a fair representation of his actual MLB ability. I don’t really see Cain as being any improvement over our battalion of “serviceable but not actually good” outfielders. Jefress is probably mildly useful, and Odorizzi will ultimately tip the scales on whether this trade is a win or not. He’s capable making it a win if he ends up being anywhere between Hochevar and Greinke; he’s capable of making it a loss all on his own if he completely flames out. Either is entirely possible.
We got four players who at best will add up to a star, a good player, and a couple of complementary pieces. That’s not bad. I think the consternation here is inextricably tied up in the Beltran trade, and I think it’s important to note that if Mark Teahen doesn’t get jerked around all over the place and the Royals make the stunningly-obvious-in-retrospect decision to just settle on John Buck as the guy behind the plate, we win the Beltran trade rather than feeling like we lost it.
But, then, that’s ultimately the problem in a nutshell. We can’t trust this organization to handle these new guys properly, can we?
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
This is more or less my feelings on the trade as well, after having slept on it
Odorizzi is a wild card, simply because he’s a pitcher who has never played above A-ball—he could easily make it and he easily could not. I remember when everyone here was drooling over NWA’s rotation of Rosa, Cortes, and Pimentel—how has that been working out? I want to be optimistic about him, as Sickels and Goldstein both have good things to say about him, but the reality is we just don’t know.
I forget who said it, but I feel like that if Jeffress remains in the pen (which he will likely have to do unless he suddenly receives an epiphany on how to not walk every other batter he faces), he’s going to be another version of Robinson Tejeda. Which is nice, but nothing to get worked up over.
My thoughts on Escobar can pretty much be cut and pasted from jon’s above post. Escobar’s lack of plate discipline really worries me, and I do have concerns of how his bat will be moving away from the inferior league.
Mostly, though, I think the “we got four players who might add up to a star” hits the nail on the head. With a trading chip link Greinke, I think quality needed to be valued over quantity. I would have rather seen Greinke traded for only two prospects if both of those prospects had legitimate star potential.
At least
the MLB “experienced” guys who might have upside still actually have a chance to improve. These aren’t 27-29 year olds with 1000+ PA’s, these are young guys who have just gotten their feet wet in the majors.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
you really cant compare this to the beltan trade
Beltran was a 2 month rental player that we were losing anyway.
Zack is under contract at a pretty good value for 2 YEARS.
In that perspective Allard kicked ass in getting 2 major league players (one of which has been an all-star.. . and not just the honorable every team has to have one guy) for 2 months.
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I wasn't comparing the trades at all.
I was asserting that our fanbase’s delusional feelings regarding what we got for Beltran are coloring this (and, ultimately, every) trade.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
understood
the beltran trade worked out quite well (and should have worked out much better)
my point that this isnt comparable is that we should have gotten 4x what we got for beltran.
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It was a different era
Teams seem to value their prospects a lot more than they did 5 years ago, so it’s harder to get a huge haul in prospects for anyone.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 20, 2010 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
We basically got 4 top 100 prospects.
Go Royals!
Cain can actually get on base
There’s really no reason to think Dyson or Robinson will ever do that at the MLB level. If his speed and defense are comparable, and my understanding is that they are, he is the best CF in the organization and thus is an improvement over everyone else.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 20, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
One of my biggest complaints about GMDM and the farm system before this last offseason
was that almost the entire farm system was nothing but drafted guys. Now it does look like Moore’s adding pieces around them through the trades of MLB players and that’s something I’m definitely a fan of.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Meanwhile on Facebook
the headline was “KC parts with Greinke, picks up heap of talent”
“We trained Zack Greinke, he became famous in KC and they made him a great player, now he is leaving to become another all star player on the Brewers. So now we have more rookies coming in so that we can train them and make 2011 the best year they have had, so just like with Greinke how he had a great year in 2009 our rookies will have an amazing year in 2011. So all Kansas City Royals fans think possitive or just leave the team because all they need right now is some good fans to cheer on a good team.”
“The Royals are never gonna win with this owner. It’s a business and as long as he turns a profit, we will never see a change in his mentality. If you want a change, stop giving him your money.”
“Some of you fans know nothing, we aren’t going to win next year. That is plain and simple. Why keep a player that is owed $27 million over the next two years and let him leave in free agency with nothing in return? Have you not been listening to the reports? The talent in our farm system is being called some of the best EVER.”
“Me and a few friends would occasionally go to a Royals game the past few years, but this is the last straw. The management has no intention of building a good team. Say goodbye to your already dwindling fan base you fucking morons.”
“This is the best move I’ve seen the Royals make in years. Goodbye Wacko Zacko.”
“Well I can pretty much say goodbye to my season tickets. Royals don’t appreciate 21 games season ticket holders and now once again they can’t keep their best players.”
“All part of the plan. Can’t judge DM until the prospects get here. He’s built the best farm system in baseball. He inherited a mess. It’s about to get interesting again.”
“To those that say that Zack didn’t want to stay in KC do you remember why?Because he saw it coming that the Glass family and Moore weren’t committed to build a winning team.Of course it’s frustrating!Back in 2003 last winning season,what did the administration do to improve and try to get in the playoffs….NOTHING!Might as well speak out and demand some action which is what unfortunately happens for us loyal fans!”
“He’s really only had one good season… So I say if he wanted to leave then I’m glad he’s gone, KC got good talent in return, it’s not like he was gonna be there for the long haul anyway.”
“I never thought I would turn my back on the Royals after being a fan since the 70’s but until we get an owner that cares like Mr. Kaufman did I am officially done with Royals. No games, no merchandise, no money.”
“Anyone who can’t see this for the good that it is isn’t a true Royals fan. The biggest loss here is Betancourt, and they’ll recover from that. Greinke has always been a mental case, cy young or not. I’ll take the handful of young talent and see how well it develops.”
""Heaps of talent" is an over-statement. Not one high-impact prospect in this deal. I don’t mind trading Greinke, but the timing of the deal and, more importantly, the lack of at least one truly high-end guy coming back is disappointing."
“Well, he was a good pitcher. He didn’t pitch all that well this year. Plus, he has to many mental issues. The only thing that I hate about this trade is that they gave the brewers CA$H when we don’t have any to give, 2nd I think they reacted to quickly to the deal. But, thats just me.”
“Another center fielded, so, Melky Cbrera will be traded, after just teasing the fans about how great Cabrera is, now werre told how great these players, how good of a trade this was for the Royals.
Until the Royals find a owner that cares a…nd a general manger I will not spend anoother penny going any Royals games”
“He was never going to resign. Stop bitching about the Royals not wanting to win. They are doing the only thing they could. Would it have been better to lose him to free agency in 2 years when we still wouldn’t be any good and get 2 extra draft picks? I hate to see my favorite player since Beltran leave, but for once I actually believe in the Royals farm system to take us back to the playoffs. Good luck to Zack”
“IT IS HIGH TIME THAT THE GLASS FAMILY AND DAYTON MOORE IS OUSTED FROM KANSAS CITY!!!! I could do a better job than he does and at half of his salary.”
“Hope all theses haters will cheer for Yankees when the #1 farm system produces, Do you people realize how bad the Royals were ??”
“Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. Royals part with All Star caliber player, get “heap of talent” in return."
“Greinke wanted out, we had to trade him. We got some decent prospects at positions we desperately need. This is not a bad trade. Zack was never going to resign in 2013 anyways and it’s not like we’re going to compete for the playoffs the next 2 years.”
“I’m so tired of hearing “The talent in our farm system is being called some of the best EVER.” So what? What good does that do for the team we put out on the field day in and day out in the majors? So, they’ll come up and win a few games… and the few individuals that really are good will start making some money. Then, management will be looking for trades because they don’t want to pay them the money they deserve and we’ll be having this same conversation in a couple of years! If you believe this was a great move for the Royals, you need to pass that shit around so the rest of us can take a hit. Hey, here’s an idea. Instead of looking to trade players that are good when their contracts are getting close to an end, how about we SIGN them and add more good players! I’m tired of living in the future, because this future that management is dreaming of never comes!"
“weather its this year or next, we have a lot of talent on the verge, its just a matter of time
If greinke didn’t want to be here, well then so be it we don’t want him here"
“This trade is not good! We get an OF that will be 25 the 2nd week of the season that spent most of last year in double A. Thats fairly old for AA. Escobar was supposed to be great last year, but of course he was a rookie so there is still …upside, but he has never been a guy who has gotten on base at any level and rookie or not .288 is not good at all. Odorizzi was dominant in A ball, but again, a long way from the majors. Jeffress, yea 100MPH but 13 walks in 12.2 innings in AZL, which is fairly consistant and pitches as only a reliever last year I believe coming back from injury. This deal is a dissappointment to say the least. We already have Cain on our roster, twice, in Dyson and Blanco. The only positive right off the bat I see is the defensive upgrade at short. Taking Betancourt off this team was a good move.”
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Oh, the vicissitudes of irony.
Back in 2003 last winning season,what did the administration do to improve and try to get in the playoffs….NOTHING!
The hilarious thing about this comment is that it’s both true and ineptly inaccurate.
Allard Baird made a whole slew of moves in the off-season before 2004. Glass opened up the wallet and let him. That it actually really did amount to nothing was one of the saddest and most frustrating things about that season.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
replacing Ibanez with Juan Gonzalez has been proven to be stupid
and looking back on the 2003 team, it’s more baffling that they won a majority of their games, considering they were the couch held together by duct tape.
Facebook.com/Royals is our farm system, guys
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
How crazy was 2003, really?
Crazy start to the season, Chris George and his 9 wins with a 7.11 ERA, picking up Lima Time off the scrap heap and having him go 6-0, Darrell May in his second year after Allard grabbed him from Japan being really good, trade deadline deals for Brian Anderson and that guy from Milwaukee who pitched well down the stretch (Leskanic- that was it), Angel Berroa ROY, Mac the 9th All Star, the list just goes on.
Did you know we had 8 players with 13+ home runs that year?? Crazy.
I remember going to a Jimmy Gobble game that year where he was called up and it was just electric at The K. Jimmy Gobble?!?
2003 screwed the Royals, actually. Because of the fast start, Baird couldn’t deal Beltran at the deadline and because of the seemingly good record he couldn’t deal him at the 2003 winter meetings either.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
nothing like having multiple prospects with season-ending injuries too
an introduction to the theme of Runelvys being too fat and hurt to pitch
Lima trying to pitch with a torn groin
Miguel Asencio disappearing
also, the part of time where Angel Berroa started having his name pronounced correctly and “changed” his foot stance.
And Desi Relaford.
Rondell White was also kinda useful.
But you forgot the deal that tied into the end of the year. Kevin Appier. Whose second to last start ended in 2 innings, then Tony Pena brought in Graeme Lloyd to start an inning in Minnesota. Which went as you’d expect.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Ah! Those were the days!
I had forgotten the Rondell White trade
yeeah boy, we got Rondell White for some reason!
I think Juan Gonzalez was a possibility for mid-season 2003 too.
but really the thing just kinda fell apart when they couldn’t find more rabbits to pull out.
Although Jamey Wright was inexplicably good as a starter late in the year.
And it was the first year of RSTN, which was amusingly amateurish in it’s production and very well timed.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Yup - it was like watching Public Access Baseball
It was on Channel 6 for us in Lawrence, which basically was the public access station where they had stuff like city council meetings and KU replays the day after.
yeah
nothing like the recorded RSTN intros by players who barely speak English..
But getting the Royals on TV consistently, as opposed to having a few games on KSMO or KCWB or wherever was very helpful to sustaining the fanbase more than it would have been sustained in a period of one hundred losses in 4 of 5 years.
Although they did put the Royals on KMCI-38 for “bad television reception baseball” on Sundays for a few years until RSTN was dissolved and the Royals got a baseball TV deal that didn’t require them hijacking another stations signal.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Curtis “Can’t Miss” Leskanic
or
Curtis “Don’t Panic” Leskanic
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 1:54 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed :(
I was fooled into thinking that 2004 could have been good. Opening Day 2004 was amazing and then it was a sled ride into crap after that :(
It would be awesome
if this was about 25 lines longer
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
by averagegatsby on Dec 19, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Dodger GM Tweet
I had extensive talks w/ #Royals about Greinke. No deal could be reached because they wanted Padilla
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 5:21 PM EST reply actions
I don't know.
I mean I wanted Jeffress at first, but now it’s a PTBNL who might be Jeffress? If that’s true it’ll kill the deal. I want Jeffress not Jeffress.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
meanwhile at the press conference
“by 2012-13 we expect the majority of our team to be home grown talent and expect to be competitive next year” – DM
Competitive in 2012?
Oh good lord.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
“Moore on 2011 rotation: Hochavar, Davies are in the rotation. Vin Mazarro is liked a lot, O’Sullivan competing and Duffy and Teaford a look”
We’re gonna kick some ass in 2012 with that foundation
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
In the next 2-4 years we'll have a lot of home grown talent giving us a chance to win consistantly.
It was the right time to go and get these players.
stop plagiarizing Dayton
But “we’ll be competitive in 2012” is not going to be accurate.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
so
who is our token all-star for our all-star game in 2012?
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
No token about it.
I’d have to assume it’s Butler for the next two seasons at least.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
Don't you have to have save opportunities
for your closer to go to the ASG?
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
All of the Royals' wins will be save opportunities
…cuz God knows with Frenchy in the heart of the lineup, we won’t be generating enough offense for any victory to not be a save situation.
All of the Royals' wins
I trust you see the issue here now.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
Yes, all 45 of them
…the Royals will go 45-117 with all 45 wins being by 3 runs or less. And Soria can even afford to blow one of those victories and still set a career record for saves in a season. And get named to another AS game cuz, you know, saves are such a meaningful statistic.
You heard it here first.
SOS
certain to surrender the “Pitcher’s Balboni” w/ at least 37 HR given up. Good times.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Dec 19, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
The lede from Motor City Bengals:
KC sent Yuniesky Betancourt, some starting pitcher and cash to the Milwaukee Brewers for prospects.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
The Royals have $0 committed in 2012 says Moore.
Now they are going after guys that make the most sense for us.
We aren’t just trying to get guys to keep us competitive and give our fanbase hope.
There is a serious chance at every position besides catcher to have a league minimum guy at at least league average production at every fielding position save catcher and one outfield slot in 2012.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
At which point
we go pay someone $70M for a one-year contract, and FLAGS FLY FOREVER
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
Well, you gotta figure not all of your guys are going to hit—but the Royals will have complete payroll flexibility to deal with that situation.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Mostly true, but not entirely true
Argueless and Crow are both due guaranteed millions for 2012. But not a lot. And of course there are all of the pre-arb and arb-eligible guys. The vast majority of them will be kept and paid.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Greinke out of KC a good thing
I look at how the Hayneworth deal worked in Washington. Not well. The second half of last year Slack Grienke was not interested in pitching. At least Shannahan had the guts to put him on the bench for the remainer of the year. At least they are only out 100 million dollars. I think we scored on this deal only for the reason Slack Greinke had no reason to be a real pitcher in 2011 for the royals.
looks like you should meet my friend:
Facebook Royals Page. I think you two will get along
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 19, 2010 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
I guess we couldn't get Josh Hamilton out of Texas
It seems most people expected some block buster deal for a great-when-he-chooses pitcher. I do not think teams are willing to give up that kind of talent for 2 years service for a pitcher who’s last 5 year track record is not consistent.
Dust settled.
The Yankees, Rangers and Nationals were not offering more and Greinke did not want to go to any of those places.
The Royals landed two MLB talents in Cain and Escobar and have improved up the middle big time. Aviles can hold 2B with Getz until Colon is ready.
My only concern is Betemit is trrrrbllllle at 3rd.
I like the deal now, and I expect the Royals win this thing long term. Greinke may never return to his 2009 form, but he will likely end up being a very solid starter for at least 5 more years.
The Royals simply cannot afford to pay 20 million to one player, until the Royals win, and the fans are dropping currency like empty popcorn boxes.
The Royals will be bad in 2011, but the best part of the “bad” is that many young players will get a look, and hopefully at least two of them (Moustakas, Crow) stick with the big club.
an infield of Butler/Kila, Aviles, Escobar and Moustakas is pretty exciting, long term.
Now to trade Soria to the Yankees for Montero and a pitcher.
:)
uh
hasn’t Chairman Ned already spoken of Aviles at 3B and Getz at 2B? (provided that Getz can handle bright lights and all, seriously, KC star article)..
Betemit is terrible at 3rd, but it’ll be a competition between him and Kila for the DH spot when Moustakas is called up
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
If only we had another 3B on the roster somewhere
Maybe we can force one of our OFers to switch? I think Gordon might be a good fit at the hot corner.
by Soria's Unibrow on Dec 19, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
Cain and Escobar remind me a little too much of
Buck and Teahen. They were also “MLB talents”.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 19, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
we shall see...i was against taking lesser players at positions of need
but both of these guys are quality and there are two great pitching prospects as well…..that, and the fact that this is the best group of players, regardless of position that were offered
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Damn it. Don't ruin Cain for me.
I’m already skeptical of Escobar.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
i thnk cain is much less of a certainty
escobar by all accounts is spectacular defensively at the most important position on the field…he doesnt have to hit any better than he did this year to be a valuable player
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Neither Buck nor Teahen
had the prospect pedigree of Escobar. It really isn’t close in terms of tools. In terms of production, the insta-judge 4000 crowd may well have their day.
Fun that the deal went down entirely during the time that Will and DF were incommunicado
someone call Jesse Ventura to investigate the trade of Zack Greinke and the “trip across Texas”…
/snark
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
I knew it.
They’ve been secretly running things for years, and I have sussed out their plan: to make so many bone-headed moves that traffic to the site can’t help but keep flowing.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
how else did the Carl Crawford story spread
Julian Assange runs the CIA and the CIA’s sports journalism division runs SBNation with the help of the reverse vampires
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Completely off-topic
I’ve been doing some research for the last… well, decade, but this phase of it has been the last couple of months. It’s been requiring me to go hit every newspaper available in Google News Archive for the 20 or so days surrounding March 1 of every year.
Occasionally, I’ll get sidetracked reading bits that have nothing to do with what I’m after, like this gem from the March 2 1988 Spokane Spokesman-Review which shows that George Brett really is sort of a dumbass sometimes:
“What really hurt Bo more than anything was when he announced he was going to play football,” Brett said, “the fans of Kansas City, for some ungodly reason, turned on him. For what reason, I don’t understand, and I’ll never understand it until I die.”
That’s right; George Brett was so clueless that “he signed to play for the Raiders” didn’t register.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
damned Chiefs
not only would Bo have a statue if he played for the Chiefs, he probably wouldn’t have gotten hurt at that exact moment.
Then again, Arrowhead had turf then, so Bo would have torched himself quicker.
But there is some good range of GNA stuff for the Royals if you want to trust the Lawrence Journal-World.
Newsbank’s KC Star collection is good, since Herk & Co tried to sell the haul for David Cone in 1995 as not being a total ripoff.
When is Chris Stynes going into the Hall?
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
I'm not doing Royals research.
The LJW has, however, provided me with a wealth of information regarding the NAIA District 10 basketball playoffs.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
more Facebook
this won’t be 10,000 words long
“I wish there was a dislike button…especially for our owners. KC Royals fans are NOT happy and we are sick of the same old waiting game. When will things change? ♥ my Royals, but would love to see them win, too!”
“Goodbye Yuni, I will miss you =[”
“stupidest mother fucking trade ever first pods now zack wtf”
“He won’t do that well up in Brewtown. It’s too big of a city. We didn’t get what we deserve for his leaving the team. Why should we dish out money?”
“Worked real hard for that deal, did ya? 3 nobodies for 2 All Stars. Reminder: Your 10 year plan in down to 7.”
“This is a great trade. Our bullpen is awesome now with Jeffers and Escobar is the best defensive shortstop that we have seen here in years. He was easily a top 10 prospect 10 months ago. We didn’t win with Greinke and now we have more young talent and we have some great young arms that should come up this year. We have made our D considerably better. "
“I remember when Sabes was traded. I hated the Royals. I was furious. As it turned out, injuries and firecrackers took their toll on Sabes and he didn’t amount to squat. Overall the trade was a wash.”
Firecrackers? What the fuck?
also love the idea that Zack Greinke couldn’t handle Milwaukee. He’s not fucking Forrest Gump, you dummies.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
So, fun with the anagram generator: Jake Odorizzi only has 2
Jazz Id Rookie
Jazz Die I Rook
Jeffrey Jermess
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
my thoughts
Overall, in my mind, this is a good but not great trade by DM…B+ maybe? While everyone wouldve preferred crazy high upside talent in return, I dont mind the way this went down.
Cain—I see him as a Dejesus type with less power but he’ll be a plus defensive CF rather than a slightly below average CF. I see him as anywhere from a 2-3.5 WAR player year in and year out.
Jeffress-Probably the least impactful piece of the trade…however, he has a blazing fastball and by all accounts a very good hard curveball. If his control remains where it’s been since the move to the pen, he might be a legitimate replacement for Soria come the trade deadline next year. If not, he’s Oganda for the Texas Rangers….not a terrible thing to have.
Alcides Escobar-He’s a great defensive shortstop with spectacular speed and good contact skills. He’s likely to hit for next to no power. Does this sound like Elvis Andrus to anyone else? League average BABIP is around 300….Escobar had a good LD rate and has great speed. A 325-330 BABIP is more likely to happen next year than 260 again. Put him close to average in that regard and he’s already a valuable player. I think there’s a good chance that he’s a 3-4 WAR player year in and year out.
Jake Odorizzi-I dont know a ton about him. But here’s what I see about him to like. He’s a 1st round pick, so he’s got that pedigree. He put up great numbers last year including almost a 5:1 K/BB. Also, I like that he’s right handed. He immediately becomes our best right handed pitching prospect and I think I’d probably slot him somewhere after Lamb, Monty and Duffy but before Dwyer and I think he’ll be around 70 or so on most prospect lists that come out this offseason.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 6:43 PM EST reply actions
i would also like to add....
that Moore has likely filled two starting positions for the next 5 years and I love that those positions are those where he has proven to be woefully incompetent at even knowing what to look for….it is a very good thing that we dont have to watch Moore shop for a SS/CF for the next 5 years.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
this...
If they each become about 3 WAR players year in year out, that is 5 years of Moore not looking for no-hit toolsy CFs and such. Although he also isn’t good at acquiring RH powerbats. :(
Right now, that seems like a huge IF
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
If they each become about 3 WAR players
for five years we win the trade big-time, since that’d be 30 WAR in exchange for the 10-12 WAR the Brewers are likely to get out of Zack and the -1 WAR they’ll get from Yuni. And that’s not considering the two pitching prospects.
How likely is that to happen, though?
"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947
You forgot the 6-8 WAR in cash we freed up as well.
Looks like almost sure win as far as the numbers go.
Go Royals!
Wait, wait, wait
What about Francoeur?
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:05 AM EST up reply actions
The thing I worry about is that we can't say "we have filled two starting positions for the next 5 years" with any sort of certainty
If Escobar hits like he does last year for the next 2, have we even filled the position for 2 years? That’s the really scary thing to me: both are too close to the cliff to make me feel comfortable.
if he hits like he did last year
and has an even average BABIP he’s a valuable player. His entire minor league career he was well above average and with his speed its likely that it’ll be above average in the MLB as well.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
above average hitter? I've yet to see anything that points to that.
An above average SS thanks to defense I’ll buy.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
above average with regards to babip
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
another possible plus
is, now we have a load of OF “talent”, at the AA-AAAA levels. Any of which could be dealt or packaged as sweeteners in another deal.
I really wonder if this is the trade that breaks the dam? do we start dealing Gordon, Blanco, mitch, Aviles, Kila/Billy, for a starter or bullpen? or maybe, even… dare i say it….a catcher to take over for Grit when he retires in 2024?
I get the feeling that now Dayton knows what pieces he gets out of Zack, the flurry will begin.
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Most likely that will not happen until next year, just some other minor pieces
this year until we know if we will have enough starting pitchign from our 15 or so projectable top of the rotation pitchers should all be ready by 2013. Even if a lot of them fail or becoem relievers all we need is average luck to basically have the entire roster we need to make a run from 2013-2017 or so.
Go Royals!
BTW
I think they pulled the second Greinke post on Facebook, which is good because I can see this happening
“I was gonna hire you to man the deepfryer, but I found on Facebook that you thought MIlwaukee was too large for Zack Greinke to handle, and you’re too fucking dumb for fast food”
Although maybe they hid how massive Milwaukee was when they made Laverne and Shirley.
“First pods now [x] wtf?” has potential for a joke response to roster moves
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
ha ha.....from melvin
“Melvin said Yuniesky Betancourt, who came with Greinke in the trade, will be the starting shortstop and likes his offense and says his defense is underrated.”
i wonder what it is about yuni that continues to trick GMs
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 8:00 PM EST reply actions
Where has this picture been the last two years?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
All I did was Google Image Search
“Yuni plus hands” and viola!
*voila
Viola would be instrumentally different
and a pretty decent pitcher
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
I'm really disappointed that I'm not sick of that picture by now.
I’m blaming gatsby.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
4 one-hundred loss seasons in the last 10 years
3 Cy Young Award winners traded in the last 20 years
2 winning seasons since Ewing Kauffman passed
1 viable starter in our rotation
that’s probably not gonna make the “countdown” montage that they play before games in 2011, eh?
Not sure there’s a good 5 example though
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
You're sure carrying a lot of resentment
No wonder you have a knee-jerk negative reaction to everything the Royals do. It’s very telling that you’d bring up this list of things that have happened over the last 10-20 years in this thread. It is irrelevant to the Royals present and future. And do you know how tired and boring the posts are that are whining about how the Royals have been bad for so long? Do you think your fellow Royals fans don’t know that? Many of us have been Royals fans for longer than you’ve been alive. We know.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
16 years of losing should make me happier
but Dayton Moore said we’re gonna be competitive in 2012…
So obviously the perfect storm is coming soon.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
No, dude
Didn’t you see the movie? The world ends in 2012, when the Royals will be competitive. It isn’t covered in the film, but it’s actually the fact that the Royals are truly competitive that sets off the end of days.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:09 AM EST up reply actions
Does any one know if Cain has options left?
If so, I can see him starting the year in AAA.
one dude I'm following is anticipating Melky v. Gordon for LF
didn’t DM create a weird logjam last year at some other position? because the outfield is shaping out like that, especially when you have Blanco. So it might be possible that Melky is the 6th best OFer on our team, and starting every day in Center
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Not me..
I anticipate a Gordon trade with Toronto for JP Arencibia.
That gives us a power hitting catcher, and gives Dayton a way to keep his beloved Brave, Gregor Blanco..
So it would be:
LF – Melky
CF – Cain
RF – Frenchy
4th – Blanco
5th – Maeir (although I suspect they get rid of him)
by KennyPowers_from_Scout on Dec 19, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't mind that deal
Anything to get rid of Kendall is a good move
I'd make that deal
Now, would the Blue Jays?
I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.
-- Source Unknown
by royaldaddy on Dec 19, 2010 10:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
ditto
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
Who was the Elite Player that everyone wanted from what has been rumored and that is all you can go off
there was no great player to be had. Holland or Profar(17 years old), Drabek or Snider, Nats Greinke wouldn’t go, Yanks not interested. Who were the Royals supposed to get?
Its nice to say that Montero or insert name here would be a better haul but you don’t know what they could’ve really got.
Odorizzi has #2 type ceiling
Escobar has possible All Star ceiling
Cain DDJ type CF
Jeffress has closer type stuff.
Yes there are alot of negatives in this deal but compared to what was available this looks like the best possible deal. Dodgers were trying to pull in a 3rd team but one can’t count on that.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
by kcscoliny on Dec 19, 2010 8:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Odorizzi does not have #2 ceiling.
Escobar has a lot to learn about hitting to even sniff the All Star game.
Cain, yeah, maybe DDJ.
Jeffress…. not if he continues to walk folks like he always has.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Per Goldstein
Odorizzi has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Brewers system, and could turn into a borderline second starter if everything works out.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Isn't this what I said? A borderline #2 is a pitcher who on a bad team is a #2 but on a good team is a #3.
Odorizzi has #3 potential.
I’m summarizing all the links below…. He has a decent fastball speed. He has better than average movement. He doesn’t have consistent secondary offerings. Even when he does become consistent with his secondary offerings, he isn’t going to overpower anyone. That’s the makings of a #3.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
No, you didn't say that
You said:
The other minor league pitcher… he profiles as a back-end rotation guy.
And you said it because you knew nothing about him, but you wanted to go on a rant about how awful the trade was, so you either exaggerated or fabricated everything you said about every player the Royals got.
BA says #3 potential. BP says borderline #2 potential.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't want to go on a rant. I discounted. Yes. I discounted.
Very few pitchers live up to their ceiling. I read all of the links posted here, before they were posted here.
Most #3 ceiling guys actually end up as back-end rotation guys or bullpen arms, if they make it at all.
He profiles as a back-end guy is not the same as saying his ceiling is #3. I was careful with my words.
I am not here to rant that the Rangers didn’t get Greinke.
I am here to rant that the best opportunity Moore had to add additional high-end talent to the AA slug that will bring them back to relevance was just wasted on average players.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Most #3 ceiling guys actually end up as back-end rotation guys or bullpen arms, if they make it at all.
He profiles as a back-end guy is not the same as saying his ceiling is #3. I was careful with my words.
So did you read any prospect analyst who said that he profiles as a likely backend rotation starter? Any at all? No, you just assumed that if the ceiling is mid-rotation, then he’ll likely end up at back of the rotation. Well, most top pitching prospects fail too. So if Drabek’s ceiling is top of the rotation, would you say that he actually profiles as mid-rotation? Of course you wouldn’t because it doesn’t fit your “elite talent” rant.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Dude. Why are you angry with me? It's true that Drabek's final landing spot is likely below his ceiling.
Attrition, lower-than-hoped performance, are the main reasons to trade for high-end talent.
The other is that elite talent can be traded. It’s great if someone considered with the talent to be in the front half of a rotation actually does that. But, the potential of a front-end guy can always be traded.
Odorizzi isn’t going to headline a trade for an impact player. He’s a good prospect but not a top-tier guy.
I don’t understand why everyone thinks that by finding some sort of internal inconsistency in my terminology they will have debunked my argument.
My argument is this:
At this stage of development, the best path forward is to have as many high-end guys as possible. They are tradeable; they sometimes develop faster than expected.
Drabek is considered a higher end prospect. He’s closer to reaching his ceiling, which was higher than either Odorizzi or Jeffress.
That’s the guy they should’ve tried hardest to get. It in the long run is more valuable to them to have a high-end talent than a collection of average, but cost-controlled, talent, at least until the Royals are good enough to be considered an outside shot at the Division or Wild Card.
The only reports were that the Blue Jays would not trade BOTH Drabek and Snyder. If that were the case and I were the Royals, I would’ve taken Drabek as the main piece and would’ve been happy.
I also think, without doing the research billybeingbilly, this approach is more likely to provide the most value for the Royals.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
escobar was more highly regarded last year than drabek is this year
one year of unlucky performance didnt change that
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
BABIP was unlucky
Don’t think his BB rate was unlucky. He seems to be a back of the order guy.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
And another problem with rooster's Drabek plan is that pitching prospects fail at a much higher rate than position player prospects
Even top 25 prospects.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
WHAT?!?!?!?!
have you never heard of Brian Bullington
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
That's why you need more of them.
There is no such thing as too many pitching prospects.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
yes...and we got two who are a step lower than drabek
2>1
is this fun for you?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think you guys are just arguing for the sake of arguing.
I’ve been pretty clear that my perspective is one high-end guy is better than multiple lower-end guys. That’s my main argument. It has been from the start.
The Royals didn’t get a high-end guy in this trade.
The Royals have a great thing in all the LHP at AA. It’s much more valuable to add more of that type than to add lower ceiling prospects. At least it is until their ML team is filled out enough that they can judge the holes it has.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Keep repeating that
You’ve posted it like five times now. I’d like to see you post it at least a few more times. Your argument has been read, understood and disagreed with multiple times. We get it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
your argument keeps changing
your facts keep changing
your opinions keep changing
the only thing they have in common is that theyre all wrong
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:07 PM EST up reply actions
Uh...isn't he arguing with both of you?
NYRoyal:
Keep repeating that, You’ve posted it like five times now. I’d like to see you post it at least a few more times.
BillybeingBilly:
your argument keeps changing, your facts keep changing, your opinions keep changing
At least you agree on:
theyre all wrong
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
He's repeated his trade philosophy multiple times
The sub arguments and facts he’s used to “support” his theory and how Drabek was the one guy to get are constantly changing. As are the various exaggerated and fabricated ways he’s bashing every player the Royals got.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
he's never gonna walk a ton
but i think a line of 280/330/380 would be more than enough to make him a good player….and there’s nothing outrageous in that projection…keeps his current walk rate
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
I really hope so.
Just have a tough time seeing the .330 OBP
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I kind of think .270/.315/.375 is more likely
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
300 is average
his LD rate was above average…his expected BABIP was 315 based on his ld rate from last year….and this doesnt even take into account his elite speed
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just not sold the LD rate.
What I’m seeing from his numbers is a guy that swings early and doesn’t make solid contact.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
we shall see....
but he had extremely high babip rates in the minors as well….at every stop…so, thats another point in favor of him being a high babip guy
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Tons of guys have high babips in the minors.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
consistently?
369, 330, 369, 343, 346
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Cliff Penningto was a 3.7 WAR player this year with a .319 OBP and very little power.
Shortstops don’t need to hit well, they just need to play good D and not be an offensive sinkhole.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Dec 19, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
But again,
look at his 3 year UZR. Does his high number this season seem real?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I don't think he's saying Pennington is going to be perrenial 3.7 WAR player
He’s pointing out that a SS can be a negative-runs hitter with good defense and be a valuable, above average player. I’ve shown that in a few hypothetical WAR examples in this thread.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm not disagreeing.
Just saying that I do think some guys get an inflated WAR from a fluky season. Using one of those guys to justify Escobar is a little weak.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
how about ozzie smith?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
So Escobar is Ozzie Smith w/ the glove now?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
BA graded his defense as a 70 last year
ozzie was probably closer to an 80…but 70 is elite defense
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe so, but at this moment, which of those two is regarded higher?
Drabek looks like he’s adapting his game and refining it to the point it that he will be successful.
Escobar has a great glove, but he hasn’t adapted his hitting approach at all. Greinke is a high price to pay to get a good glove.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Thankfully the Royals got more than a good glove for Greinke
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
he doesnt need to adapt his hitting too much to be valuable
he just needs to stop hitting it at the fielders
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
"Drabek is adapting his game and refining it"
Based on what? Winter ball stats?
I wouldn't mind getting a big piece of elite minor league talent in such a trade
But I don’t love Drabek that much. He has issues. And I think some of his ranking comes from his bloodlines. I don’t buy into that particular hype. I don’t think either Drabek or Snider would have been enough. You act like either is spectacular talent. I disagree. And Escobar is a #12 prospect who had a poor age 23 rookie season. That’s a lot of talent, isn’t it? Does one rookie seaosn wash away all of his upside and make him no more than average?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
do you know how to estimate what his WAR wouldve been
had his babip been the 320 or so it shouldve been as opposed to 264?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
where's matt?
i bet he does
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
I think Matt is on vaca
Jeff probably can.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:02 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but not now.
i am trying to get a post ready for tomorrow.
I did get an email from Will:
I JUST GOT THIS. Been driving across Texas all day. Wondefully horrible timing as usual.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
much appreciated if you can get around to it....
no hurry, im just curious
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'd hesitate on the "should have been"
320
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
should have been based on the LD%+.12
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
Again, quality of contact counts.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
line drive is the best kind of contact
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
and has been covered multiple times,
line drives are subjective.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
yeah...we'll see....id put money on him being
much closer to 320 from here on out than 264
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't think you can assume that his recorded LD's weren't really LD's
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
Are there a lot of cases of guys with high LD rates
that had low BABIPs and showed a rebound? I don’t know. I do know that guys who are free swingers (which Escobar seems to be) tend to make weaker contact.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
So we basically disagree on the separation between Drabek and Escobar.
Well, Escobar hasn’t really addressed the things that could keep him from reaching his ceiling.
Drabek has refined his fastball command and improved his changeup.
They appear to be prospects trending in very different directions to me. I didn’t pull that out of thin air. You can read KLaw to get a sense of that being the case. Beat writers for the Jays are also very high on what they’ve seen, as in he’s looked better than expected. You can discount the beat writers as poor evaluators if you want.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Ok great
Your position has been thoroughly laid out and responded to. I appreciate your input.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
"You can discount the beat writers as poor evaluators"
Done and done.
Just read this after posting my Drabek comment below. Weird.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:22 AM EST up reply actions
It's kind of weird
and I’m no prospect expert, but I’m not that high on Drabek. It feels to me that so much of his value is tied into who his dad was. His K/9 at every stop in the minors but High-A was pedestrian. His K/BB was almost always right around 2.00, if not lower. I just don’t get why everyone is crazy about him, as his performance thus far doesn’t seem to support the amount of praise that he gets.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:17 AM EST up reply actions
Bull fucking shit
You came here to point out what a bunch of tards the Royals are for not taking Profar or Beltre, Holland [who was just sterling in his debut], and Perez for Greinke.
No you said he doesn't have #2 ceiling
Odorizzi does not have #2 ceiling.
Exact quote
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Fine. I said he doesn't have #2 ceiling. I meant he doesn't have #2 ceiling on a good team.
The Rangers had Rick Helling as their #1 for a number of years. He had neither a #1 ceiling nor the performance of a #1 pitcher on those Ranger teams.
Just because Ordizzi, if all goes perfectly well for him, could be the #2 pitcher on a majority of teams doesn’t mean he’s a #2 pitcher.
But, I don’t think it makes sense to argue about the semantics of that statement.
Everyone agrees, the Royals got a breadth of pretty good, but not great prospects.
I’m arguing at this stage of development they are better off getting one great prospect rather than a few pretty good ones.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
fucking hamels sucks....
- starter…
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
that should say #4 starter
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
“Just because Ordizzi, if all goes perfectly well for him, could be the #2 pitcher on a majority of teams doesn’t mean he’s a #2 pitcher.”
that’s precisely what it means
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
by your definition one of them has to be
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I was arguing the opposite.
A #2 isn’t necessarily a #2 is what I meant to say earlier.
A #2 on a playoff team is quite a bit different from Kyle Davies.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
after years of study
I am positve Davies is #2
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Now you're just desperately spinning to make your exaggerated comments look reasonable
You don’t have enough spin to make that work. When prospect analysts (or anyone but you, apparentl) talk about a #1 starter or a #2 or mid-rotation or backend starter, they are talking about an overall quality of the pitcher. Not whether the pitcher would be a #1 on one team but a #3 on a different kind of team. You didn’t know his ceiling. Hell you knew nothing about him, but you just starting spouting off about how he has a low ceiling. Dont back away from it now. Embrace your rant.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not backing away.
It’s not uncommon for people to rate prospects with qualifiers like top-end on a good team. I’ve seen it posted by guys who post scouting reports.
i did my research before I ranted. What I found is what made me rant. I googled Odorizzi and read that his fastball has boring action and that it sits 88-93. That’s pretty much the type of fastball that a back-end guy has.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Kind of like this guy
fastball has been clocked as high as 96 mph, though it’s more usually in the 90-93 mph range
ESPN Sickels 2003.
Who is that pitcher?
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Oh ya its Zack Greinke
Your statement about Fastball is exceedingly stupid
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
ummmmmmmm
that nutcase chipotle eater guy we unloaded for some no-names?
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
i did my research before I ranted. What I found is what made me rant. I googled Odorizzi and read that his fastball has boring action and that it sits 88-93. That’s pretty much the type of fastball that a back-end guy has.
Crappy research. Both BA and BP said today that his fastball sits in the low 90’s and hits the mid 90’s. BA says it ranges from 89-95. Maybe your research is old. Do you realize that pitching prospects often gain velocity as they age? Do you really think that backed SP’s have fastballs in the low-90’s and mid-rotation and front-end guys have fastballs in the mid-to-upper 90’s? You don’t really believe that, do you?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
There is no trend one way or the other with SP prospects gaining or losing speed on their fastball.
Some gain, some lose. The only rule of thumb might be that a teenager who is lanky seems to have a better chance at adding velocity, but it is far from a guarantee that it will happen.
Apparently, as posted above, Greinke has gained some velocity.
But, what is your point here? Do you just want to say I’m stupid? ill-informed?
I posted my research, which shows a range only 2 mph different from what BA/BP posted. I got that from the fangraphs report, and it indicated he touched 93 but could add more velocity as he grows. It concludes he has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. I’m willing to take that as a decent estimate. He’s not a #2 starter ceiling. Like every pitcher, he’s unlikely to hit his ceiling. What the Royals most likely got was a back-end guy.
Are you going to accuse me of backpedaling on my research?
Godspeed Mike Olt.
There is no trend one way or the other with SP prospects gaining or losing speed on their fastball.
Are you kidding? You don’t think that 18 year-old draftees as they go through the minors don’t usually add velocity? Are you new to this game?
But, what is your point here? Do you just want to say I’m stupid? ill-informed?
Well I don’t just want to point out that you are ill-informed. I pointed out that your numbers are wrong. And your assertion that a 91-93 mph fastball is the velocity of a backend starter is laughably false.
. It concludes he has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. I’m willing to take that as a decent estimate. He’s not a #2 starter ceiling
Do you see how you contradicted yourself here. You accept that he has a #2 or #3 starter ceiling. And then you say he’s not a #2 starter ceiling. Huh?
Are you going to accuse me of backpedaling on my research?
Certainly not. I’m saying you did shoddy research and very little of it at that. No wonder your conclusions are all wrong.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Do you give grades to everyone who posts on here?
Or do you just like shaking down someone who has posted on here infrequently?
Or is it that I disagree with your opinion and that’s why you think it necessary to grade my homework?
Godspeed Mike Olt.
NYRoyal might actually keep logs of posts.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Dec 20, 2010 12:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
It's OK. I'm just trying to make him feel a small bit like he's taking this all too seriously.
We’re all fans of the same team, even if I haven’t had the time to post over here. I didn’t even had time to post much on lonestarball while the Rangers were making their great run.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I don't t hink I gave you a grade
AS I said elsewhere, I got into it with you when you broke down each prospect and explained through exaggeration and fabrication how each of them was pretty much crap. It seemed like you weren’t even interested in the truth. You were just going to write them all off as bad players so you could make your point. When you post crap on this site, you’re going to get some critical responses.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:30 AM EST up reply actions
"It's not uncommon for people to rate prospects with qualifiers"
We know that. You were the one who was making blanket assertions with no qualifiers.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12605
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/fanblogs/83956047.html
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/2010/05/milb-prospect-statistical-scouting-jake.html
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2010/2611088.html
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/kansas-city-nabs-four-young-players-for-greinke/
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He doesn't know anything about Odorizzi and he doesn't care
He wants to bash this trade because he wishes the Royals had traded him to his favorite team, the Rangers. He’s not interested in seriously analyzing the trade. He’s just being cranky.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
Why do you care?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Because I'm a fan of the Royals. As I said above.
I’m a diehard Ranger fan, but also a Royals fan.
I would love it if every year the entire postseason were played in the central US, far away from the coasts.
I thought the Jays might be willing to overpay for Greinke. Their GM is on record saying they are one piece away from being truly competitive.
I didn’t want the Rangers to overpay, which, BTW, I felt would’ve been a trade headed by the combo of Holland+Perez or Holland+Scheppers. That is just too much pitching for the Rangers to give away when that pitching pool is the one they would need to have the good fortune of being able to dip into and get a #2 or better to sustain success beyond 2012.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Unfortunately neither was willing to do that and Greinke wasn't willing to
go to Washington so KC took the best deal available to them which is better than trying to wait it out.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I thought the Jays might be willing to overpay for Greinke.
That would have been nice. Every report says they were not willing to do so.
I didn’t want the Rangers to overpay,
And they didn’t want to either.
So which offer better than this one should the Royals have taken? If your answer is “Well I don’t know but there must have been one!” then don’t even bother answering.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
NYRoyal....
what grade do you give the trade?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
C+
The question of what else he could have gotten remains. I don’t love the haul, but it’s ok. This may have been the most he could have possibly gotten from anyone. If so, the grade goes up. If not, it goes down. There’s a lot we’ll never know, as with any trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, we've got to work on our grading scales.
I think I’m more down on the trade than you and I’m thinking a B.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I think its a B
if you include that DM’s free agent signing history and this makes two less players to sign.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Dec 19, 2010 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
thats a very underrated part of this trade
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
And it shows the guy might have had a plan
all along. It was a shitty one with some of the FA signings but he is stocking up the minor leagues.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
For Drabek or Sniker no thanks.
A combo then yes I’d be a go for that but they weren’t willing to give both.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
But DM should have MADE them give up both Drabek and Snider
…through the sheer force of his will. Or Montero and Gardner from the Yankees. The fact that neither team wanted to give up those packages means DM screwed up.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly after reading the reports I don't understand how people can be upset
the offers weren’t getting any better. He had to be released prior to the season just in case his stock would’ve dropped more. Good deal if you believe Goldstein phenomenal deal.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I'm not at all saying DM did a bad thing by not getting Montero.
He did a bad thing by not getting at least one off-the-charts prospect.
He didn’t have to get two. He should’ve gotten one. He could’ve gotten one from Toronto.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
You are really hanging your hat on Drabek or Snider
I’m not so sure I’d do that. Both of them have issues and Snider hasn’t exactly been lights out unstoppable in the majors.
All right, apparently I’m the only person who feels this way in the universe, but I hate Brett Gardner on a molecular level. Maybe he’s a fine player, but there is something about him that absolutely rubs me the wrong way, and it probably has to do with the fact that his penchant for post-season head-first slides into first base was then followed by undeserved praise.
In short, screw Brett Gardner.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:42 AM EST up reply actions
good. personally, would not have wanted him for the same reasons that I would never have been able to deal with having Elway in a Chiefs’ uniform.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 3:24 AM EST up reply actions
For one or the other, yes, that would've been a better deal.
At the level of building the Royals are in, it’s better to get one very high end guy than multiple average guys, especially for the best trade chip they may ever trade.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
thats not true at all
we have tons of elite talent…getting multiple very good talents at positions of weakness and adding two great prospects to the huge stable of pitching prospects is good
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure about "tons"
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
well...how about the most since goldstein started ranking prospects....
5 5 star guys
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
No, it really wouldn't have been a better deal
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Tell me why not. Here is why I think it is a better deal.
There is no substitute for high-end talent. It’s the most expensive thing to buy on the market.
The Royals are nowhere near fielding a team that only has a hole or two to fill in order to be competitive. How do they know the holes they will have to fill in 2012-2014 are SS and CF?
Get as big of a ball of high-end talent as possible. Trade it when holes are more clearly determined.
That’s my thinking for why getting fewer players but high-end talent is better than a bunch of cost-controlled average players.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
SS and CF were very clearly huge holes....
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Yah, could be a grand total of zero holes now.
Everything could come from the minors now, wow.
Go Royals!
First, because Drabek isn’t the super high end talent you pretend he is. Second, because Snider has some significant defense and OBP issues (and his OF defense is really horrible). And so far for all of his power potential, in three MLB seasons he hasn’t had a SLG over .466. And I think he already he only has 4 seasons of team control left.
Your theory isn’t horrible. But these guys don’t match the kind of talent you want out of one player in such a trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
agree
id put montero even without a position in a different class than either drabek or snider
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
True but from all reports the Yanks weren't really interested.
I would like the Cardinals to part with Pujols but I didn’t hear any rumors of them being interested either.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
compare drabek in A ball to Odorizzi
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa326480&position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa454394&position=P
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Odorizzi could add a couple MPH to his fastball, but he doesn't yet have that.
Drabek will always have a higher ceiling based on being able to control a blazing fastball. It’s hard to beat a blazing fastball that can be well-placed.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
he's also been injured and had attitude problems
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
its funny....being too stupid to quit smoking weed is fine....
getting drunk and pissing on a fence is not fine…i’d love to pick dayton moores mind sometime
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention the whole Escobar deal.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Drabeks avg FB in his ML starts was 93.8 not a whole lot different
his best pitch is his Curve. I’m not saying Odorizzi is better than Drabek but to say he can’t become what he is, is somewhat offbase. Drabek prior to this season was a 2/3 ceiling and the Blue Jays don’t really have the combo of talent besides him.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Yeah. Since when is a 93.8 mph fastball a "blazing fastball"
Sounds like rooster is overhyping Drabek a ton.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
He throws it after lighting it on fire.
From his hair.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Dec 19, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He is everyone knows his best pitch is his curveball
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
The reports on Odorizzi are that he tops out at 93.
That’s quite a bit different from Drabek’s average of 93.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Again, you've clearly read nothing about Odorizzi
Both BA and BP say his fastball sits in the low 90’s (usually 91-93). And both BA and BP say that he hits 95. And both of those were from the two sites’ analysis of the trade today. You couldn’t even be bothered to read that before you started writing inaccurate crap about the players in this trade?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
You're right. I didn't read any of the material I actually read.
So, what is you’re beef with my argument.
My argument: The Royals should’ve taken fewer players to get one top-tier player. Instead, the took a number of second-tier players that filled perceived positions of need.
I am not arguing the Royals could’ve gotten Drabek AND Snyder.
I’m saying they should’ve gotten one player with Drabek’s ceiling, and it appears from media reports they had at least one team willing to do that.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
#12 prospect is 2nd tier
but #20 or so is first tier?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
I've responded to your argument at least twice. Do I have to respond a third time?
I like getting top tier talent too. But I don’t think that every top 25 prospect is necessarily that guy. And I don’t like Drabek as that single piece of elite talent. Montero, yes. Drabek, no. And you ignore Escobar’s talent which was BA #12 last year. You apparently assume that a bad rookie season washes all of that talent and potential away.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Drabek is over-hyped
Due to his father… the infamous Doug Drabek
Its a value interpretation Escobar had a very high value
just last year and a poor BABIP has lowered his value. He can rebound. Sniders value isn’t all that different from Escobar’s when you think about it. Snider has little to no defensive value and his hitting has yet to take off and you want to trade for that?
According to BA as of 2010 Drabeks ceiling isn’t any different from where Odorizzi is according to KG.
And that is a one or the other scenario with some fill ins that we don’t know about
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Yeah Drabek isn't a guy with off the charts talent or potential
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
if his name was kyle johnson....
people would be much less excited about him
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
Bloodlines!
The worst possible source for hype.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
i played baseball with john mayberry jr
and it was amazing, he wasnt even the best player on our hs team, yet he was drafted in the first round whereas the best players best offer was to kstate
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
In fairness
He was BA’s #25 last year.
You can’t use high rankings to support Escobar but discount them for Drabek.
It’s moot anyway, Toronto wouldn’t give him in a package that made sense.
by kcbottom9th on Dec 19, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
nobody's saying he's not a great prospect....
but i think his name definitely makes a difference…..its much easier for fans to dream his future successes when they can point to his dad
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
Jeremy Jeffress
Scouting report according to Goldstein
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I have read he’s had trouble developing offspeed and breaking stuff because of the suspensions.
Do we think there’s any merit to that? A change-up would put him in the rotation, IMO.
Not if his BB/9 goes back to where it was.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
its more likely to stay where it was since he started relieving
than to go back to the levels it was when he was starting
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 20, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
If moves back to the rotation?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
So, I had really hoped to see a Rangers-Royals postseason in 2012 or 2013.
Trading Greinke for a bunch of league-average just isn’t going to do it, though.
Sure, Escobar has gold glove potential. Fine. If trading an Ace is the cost of obtaining truly GG potential, then defense has become waaaayyy overrated.
Jeffres… Looks like a better bet to be Farnsworth than anything else.
The other minor league pitcher… he profiles as a back-end rotation guy.
Cain… I like this one, and he appears to me to be the most likely to have a productive ML career, but his upside is still nothing to be excited about.
So, instead, get ONE really high-upside player…. say, Drabek…. and sign Cabrera for defense the next couple of years. High-upside players can be traded to fill holes when the team is competitive. Average players can only lift the team to an average level.
I really don’t see how this trade significantly improved the Royals chances of being competitive in 2012.
NYRoyal…. I’m sure you’re going to question me about what offers were really out there. We will never know, of course, so what point is it to say we can’t judge the trade without knowing the exact offers. However, all of the rumored offers were of the near ML-ready type (Nats had Zimmerman, Espinosa. Rangers had Hunter, Holland), and I think we can safely conclude that the lack of rumored high-end, lower-level prospect deals means Moore specifically looked for near ML-ready players.
NYRoyal…. Yes, Escobar was he #12 prospect. No one has accused him of having Vlad-like capability to make contact. That’s truly the type of talent that’s needed to have a very low walk rate and still be a productive hitter. Another one… Pudge… I don’t think anyone thinks Escobar has the hand-eye coordination of Pudge.
So, way to trade a star for an average team. If that was Moore’s goal, he succeeded, and he should commend himself.
In the meantime, I’m still going to hope against hope the Rangers and Royals will face off in 2012 or 2013.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
find me one person who thinks ordorizzi's ceiling is back end of the rotation
and filling two huge holes with highly regarded young players is a good thing…and possibly finding sorias replacement is a good thing
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry but the last thing I need is a jilted, cranky Rangers fan pontificating on a KC-Mil trade
The Rangers didn’t get Greinke because they weren’t willing to offer Perez (according to sources in the Rangers organization). Without Perez, the Rangers didn’t have enough to offer. The reported offer the Rangers made was no better than this deal. If you’re upset that the Rangers didn’t get Greinke, then be upset with your GM.
Sure, Escobar has gold glove potential. Fine. If trading an Ace is the cost of obtaining truly GG potential, then defense has become waaaayyy overrated.
First, the trade wasn’t just Greinke for Escobar, so saying that the cost of GG defense is an ace is just hyperbolic nonsense. Second, a player’s value includes defense. Let’s not ignore it.
Yes, Escobar was he #12 prospect. No one has accused him of having Vlad-like capability to make contact. That’s truly the type of talent that’s needed to have a very low walk rate and still be a productive hitter
More nonsense. No facts. No math, just wild exaggeration. Here’s some numbers for you. I don’t think he’s going to be a star, but here are some reasonably attainable numbers for him:
-9 batting
+10 fielding
20 replacement
7 positional adj.
total is 28 RAR or 2.8 WAR
And he has upside for better than that.
Looks like a better bet to be Farnsworth than anything else.
Based on what? Sounds like you thought to yourself “I need to say something bad about this guy. Hey, I’ll compare him to Farnsworth!”
The other minor league pitcher… he profiles as a back-end rotation guy.
Now you’re not even trying. Both BP and BA project him as a mid-rotation starter. You don’t even know his name so you didn’t even try to find out anything about him. You just vomitted out something that you fabricated.
and I think we can safely conclude that the lack of rumored high-end, lower-level prospect deals means Moore specifically looked for near ML-ready players.
You’re guessing. It isn’t safe to assume anything based on the rumors we’ve heard. But if you want to play that game, no rumored offer included any elite minor league talent. Should Moore have just waited and assumed the offers would get better? That would have risked that some teams went another direction to get a SP, and then took offers off the table. And if you wait until July, the offers likely get worse.
I really don’t see how this trade significantly improved the Royals chances of being competitive in 2012.
First, this trade wasn’t even primarily about being competitive in 2012. It was about being competitive for the next several years once multiple prospects have arrived and some of them have succeeded. Greinke wouldn’t have helped with that because he’d have left for free agency. Second, this helps the Royals long-term by filling the SS and CF positions with long-term options who may well turn out to be average or above average players. And the Royals had little in the way of OF prospects and only one good SS prospect and his defense profiles better at 2B.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Reality of what the Rangers were proposing
Beltre- A light hitting Cain
or
Profar-17 yo nice ceiling but years away
Holland- Backend rotation guy
Hunter- Way overrated AAA type
Some unknown piece
Sorry Ranger fan that you got left out of the mix for Lee and Greinke.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Look, I'm not arguing the Rangers put the better package on the table.
I fully admit that to beat this offer the Rangers would’ve had to put Elvis in the deal.
And, I could even be persuaded the Rangers should’ve put Elvis in the deal.
I’m saying Moore took an approach that does little to build the Royals into a contending team.
The Royals are already on a good path to becoming a contending team when their AA team arrives in the majors, but the players they got today are not going to add much. Moore would’ve had more grist to play with if he had simply looked for high-end talent rather than talent that fit a particular position.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
getting two starters
who project to be above average players at positions of dire need along with a potential stud closer and a potential middle of the rotation pitcher does little to help build the royals into contenders?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
All that matters is superstars!
Look at any playoff team. All they have in their lineup is superstars. All they have in their rotation is aces.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
just the phillies
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Who's the stud closer?
Jeffress hasn’t shown the ability to throw strikes. What makes you think he can harness his fastball enough to be a stud closer?
Godspeed Mike Olt.
umm...potential was the word i used....
do a little research…look at his stats when he moved to the bullpen
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
K/9 up around 10 BB/9 down to around 3
Does that look good rooster?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't he have like a 102 mph fastball?
Go Royals!
thats been reported....
its safe to say that he sits in the upper 90s though….neftali feliz velo…not chapman velo
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Hit 101 in some kind of futures game
Usually it is more like 95-98.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
You are forgetting the gun at the K.
Go Royals!
107....fuck you chapman
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm
Throws 102 mph, has trouble with command, gets in trouble…..
Get this kid some glasses!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
but the players they got today are not going to add much
It is reasonable to think that both could easily be average players at their positions. They have upside for more, but average is more realistic. If Moore added two average players at positions of deed for the Royals, does that really “not add much”? It’s not like league average players grow on trees. As adding two cheap, multi-year team control league average players really “not much”?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
I'm saying it's too early to settle for that.
If you trade for average players, you have an average team.
If their stars come up and they are stars, then get some league average veterans to fill the holes or make a trade with some of that high-end talent not yet at the majors.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
greinke becomes less and less valuable every single day....
and thats without taking into account how he’ll pitch when he clearly doesnt want to be here and knows the royals dont want him here
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
Unlike the 25 Gloads or 25 Bloomquist quotes,
25 of these type of guys does win you divisions.
Go Royals!
If you trade for average players, you have an average team.
Could you explain this to me. He traded for two or three average (or better) players. How does the acquisition of two or three maybe average players make the whole team average?
If their stars come up and they are stars, then get some league average veterans to fill the holes or make a trade with some of that high-end talent not yet at the majors.
Do you know how much league average veterans cost? Here’s a hint: 1 WAR is likely to equal about $5M in 2011. Average players (2 WAR) will go for $10M. Think it will be easy for Moore to bring in a bunch of league average vets (and vet means declining) to fill all of our holes. And do you trust Dayton Moore to acquire the right guys?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
his track record for signing SS and CF
is less than stellar
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yes I know how much league average veterans cost, and it's a lot less than superstar veterans.
How do you know what superstar players the Royals will have in 2012?
Godspeed Mike Olt.
I know the guys are beating up on you pretty hard
and it’s probably a little over-done, but welcome to NYRoyal’s Barbecue and Rotisserie. Don’t take it personally, he’s a lawyer. And yes, he likes to argue. But he’s a good guy.
The problem with the theory you’re espousing here regarding filling holes with average players is this: the Royals do not have ANY solid prospects on the way to fill the two holes in question. None. Yes, they have “shortstops”; all the ones that are any good won’t be playing shortstop in Kansas City. There is no true prospect in the organization with the chops to play center field.
Now, when you take it from that angle: if Escobar and Cain can be worked with by this team to fit what this team wants to do with them to serve as adequate placeholders in the event better options do not come along by the time Hosmer and Moustakas and Myers and Colon are ready to join the party, then getting already-functional players is actually a good move. Not a great move, but in the absence of better offers, it’s an excellent decision under the circumstances.
My new blog: Those Other Guys. Critiques welcome.
But he’s a good guy.
I wouldn’t go that far.
And, for the record, what got me going with this guy is his long post where he broke down each of the players the Royals got and explained through exaggerated and fabricated facts and poor analysis that each of them was crap. They were all pretty worthless. Then he goes on to say that they are average. I don’t know what the point was of dishonestly describing all of the players as shit and then arguing that they are average and that this just isn’t good enough.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Is this the post I did this in?
I like Cain the best, actually, of all the players. He has skills that look like he could be DeJesus. Escobar has glove, which isn’t exactly the sort of thing that is the reason an Cy Young caliber #1 is traded for.
Jeffres looks more like the next Farnsworth.
The other pitcher will be fortunate to be a #4 starter someday.
That’s still my perspective. I haven’t heard anything to strongly argue against it. We’ve talked ceilings, but we all know the number of players who hit their ceilings is very low.
I don’t think I’ve posted anything internally contradictory. I think we disagree on the separation between Escobar and Drabek, and I referenced KLaw on the new thinking that is emerging on Drabek.
Anyways. We’re off to a good start.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
Haven't heard anything to strongly argue against it?
You’re not paying attention then. But that was clear from the start.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:33 AM EST up reply actions
odorizzi and jeffress are both in KGs top 101
that gives us what?…10 top 101 prospects?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 8:58 PM EST reply actions
i'll be shocked if we win that many games
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
The only disappointment I had today was
No overflow girl…
Reality is a crutch for people who can’t handle drugs
by where o' where has my underdog gone? on Dec 19, 2010 9:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Here you go
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I met her once. Nice lady.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Dec 20, 2010 2:52 AM EST up reply actions
KG has Jeffress ranked higher than Odorizzi can't really agree with that.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
And I think KG said that Odorizzi was going to be in his top 101
So that would mean Jeffress is in his top 101 as well.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
he said at some point
‘if jeffress is the PTBNL, the brewers have no top 101 prospects’
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, it just made me think of the Bill James quote
It was something to the effect of “You could cut Ricky Henderson in half and you’d have 2 Hall of Famers”
With the fail rate of prospects and our bad luck
I’d love to see us just keep them all and see what happens :D
And just to point out again, Escobar was a five star prospect last year.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Looks like at least 9 Royals in KGs Top 101
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
List?
Hosmer, Moose Tacos, Monty, Lamb, Myers, Duffy, …?
dwyer, colon, odorizzi and jeffress
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
He said Odorizzi and Jeffress are both Top 101 so include Dwyer in your list also
He’s got Moose, Lamb, Hosmer, Myers, Monty, Dwyer, Duffy, Jeffress and Odorizzi in Top 9 followed by Colon for 10 which I would say he has a good chance to make the 101
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
normally around 15 players make these lists
the year after theyre drafted and while you can argue that colon was an overdraft, its tough to argue that he wasnt a top 15 guy
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
I doubt it he was ranked 8th in BAs Brewers list. I don't know about KG
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
No, he was a lower end top 10 for Milwaukee 3 star type for three or four years.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
in summary
the only team with the quality of prospects we needed, and a GM foolish enough to part with them … is us?
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Two of Colon, Giavotella, D. Robinson and Orlando
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
In reality Monty and Lamb is too high. Probably Dwyer or Duffy and Crow
plus Colon and DRob or Dyson (little light on CF talent)
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I'm thinking it's more like Greinke for
Colon, Blanco, Duffy, and Dwyer
No one in this deal is Montgomery or Lamb. Ortorizzi has upside, but KG said he’s maybe 9th in the Royals system
Scary we are putting players who are not in the top 20 on the 40 man
just so no one takes them in the rule 5 draft.
Go Royals!
well..
i did say quality,… not positional
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
I'm sorry- I'm usually one of the optimists around here. I think I'm just a bit sad that Zack is gone
But I’ve found another little cloud for our silver lining :(
So, we have all agreed 2011 is a lost year. How does trading for MLB-ready, mid-level talent really help with the goal long term? Those thinking primarily long term were writing off pretty much anything Greinke was going to give this year. He could have a magical 12 WAR season and it would be just the same as in 2009 where he was the only thing to really cheer about so we were going to chalk that 12 WAR up to wasted.
Isn’t that pretty much also true for whatever we get from the 2nd of 6 years of both of our new guys is pretty much wasted, too? So, by that token, we’re already down to trading 2 years of watching Zack on a sucky team to, at the very most, 4 “useful” years each of Escobar and Cain. And that assumes 2012 arrives on time, which seems a pretty short timeline for a bunch of players who are only in AA right now.
when you trade for major league ready talent....
you take away alot of the risk…these guys have already conquered AAA whereas most of our prospects have not.
also, you dont want a team comprised entirely of rookies. having guys in their 2nd, 3rd, 4th years to go along with the rookies is not a bad thing.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
It's always interesting to get the view from the other side
None of the players Dayton Moore got are sure things in any sense of the word. Alcides Escobar hasn’t shown that he can come close to hitting ML pitching, Jeremy Jeffress has talent but seems more likely to end up in the bullpen, Jake Odorizzi has big potential, but hasn’t pitched above A ball and young pitchers are always very risky, and Lorenzo Cain probably won’t be a star player.
I’m going to assume they know a little more than most of us looking at these guys numbers for the first time today.
That said, I keep coming back to the idea that if you can lock up CF, SS and a back end bullpen spot for 5 years with average production or a little above than this can work. Plus the wildcard in Odorizzi.
None of the guys who will be immediately on the team are stars, or likely to be. But they don’t have to be if the WAVE is all it’s cracked up to be, and it removes the compulsion for Dayton to fill the holes with shit vets in a couple of years.
You could be looking at a team in 2/3 years of:
C: Myers/ Someone else
1B: Hosmer
2B: Colon
SS: Escobar
3B: Moustakas
RF: Myers/ Someone else
CF: Cain
LF: Blanco?/ Someone else
The Rotation will be filled with upside and the bullpen will have Soria, Jeffress, Collins, Coleman and random fluff.
That team could win games if these guys are who we think they are.,…
I still think trading for positional need is a bad idea, but if you are going to I think Dayton has done a pretty good job here (and he may have had no choice in partner)
I'd love to see some more power in that OF
That’s still a pretty light hitting lineup beyond Butler, Hosmer, and Moose Tacos. Myers has a nice stick but there are a lot of guys there without much upside (Colon, Escobar, Cain, C)
True
I didn’t mention any FA signings though (because the thought scares me), though that line up there is very cheap so there would be money to spare.
I'm sorry, GMDM, but you're not allowed to sign any players
I mean, can you just see that talent wave and then he goes all Jason Werth on the payroll? That said, I’d rather have that problem than the “say, 110 or 100 losses this year?” one we have now
I think Myers should count as one of the good hitters
Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Myers. And then some good defense and decent hitters. All that really counts is the total value of the various players. It’s not really important whether they get their value from hitting (contact, plate discipline or power) or defense.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yah got Salvadore Peraz in the system, defensive whiz
that should be able to take over the everyday catcher duties.
Go Royals!
So, this is my problem, the Royals traded for an average team.
That’s my only claim. I believe Moore messed up because he traded for an average team.
The folks who disagree with me must feel the same as you, that an average up-the-middle team can win championships if surrounded with talent elsewhere.
However, how do you know what that AA talent will actually become. It might be necessary to be above average up the middle to compete in 2012-2014. That’s why I think it’s too early for Moore to trade for average players.
Godspeed Mike Olt.
What do you mean by saying he traded for an average TEAM?
He traded for some players. They pay pan out to be average. Maybe better. But the future TEAM is going to be made up of many players. Many of them project to be way above average. Moore got some good elements which could help those future teams. The Royals weren’t offered a lot of elite players. Drabek or Snider alone (or with throw-ins) was not enough. He got this offer. It is better than doing nothing.
And I don’t know why you are focusing on how good the team is “up the middle.” Moore does that and it is stupid. “Up the middle” players aren’t more important than players on the corner. What the Royals need is good players. They added to their future talent today.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
cheap team
could go out and spend big on a big time player.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
I really hope that doesn't happen.
Do you trust Dayton Moore doing that?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
we haven't really had the resources to go after a top tier player before
so i dunno.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
it is seemingly much easier
to identiy the top guys than the lower tiered guys
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting remaining question: will Moore spend the freed up money this offseason
Including arbitration awards, the Royals payroll currently projects to be under $50M. Moore said a couple months ago that the payroll would be in the low 60’s. If so, then he has more than $10M he can spend. Will he spend some or all of it? Or will he pocket some for future use, and/or use it on big spending in the draft and L.A. free agents.
The immoderate moderator
Lots of different options.
Could sign Hoochaver, Butler or perhaps Gordan to very reasonable long term deals.
Could go get some recently injured/recovered starting pitchers and sign them to reasonable long team deals.
Could go after all big name international free agent folks.
Could take on bad contracts and get more prospects.
and so forth.
Go Royals!
Hm..
Bad contracts, get more prospects- I like this option
agree
that will blow up on facebook which is alway fun.. but certainly could pay off.
Actually the most likely is to load up on Pods/Ankiel type guys or serviceable bullpen guys to trade in July
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Its much better than signing players to bad contracts ourselves!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
we could invest the money in gold
gold will never go down!
the odds say.. the money is mainly pocketed. Outside of the Royals hiring the 1980s SMU athletic department to recruit prospects, we’re not spending $5M on amateur signings
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
So, now we're pretty much to the point in OOTP
Where I just want to sim through this season, not do much next offseason, quick sim through 2012 and see where we’re at with this talent wave :D
Wait, we can’t do that in real life? Bummer :(
I think we'll just wait until tomorrow
I’m thinking maybe Jeff will have a “the day after” post on this trade.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Its not often we totally agree on something. Kind of fun lol
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I will have something up for the morning.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
what does the defense
do for the mediocre pitching staff? If these guys are as good at CF & SS as advertised… Aviles at 3rd & Getz at 2nd…how much is that reflected in the team ERA? The potential reduction of 8th inning little league throw the ball around innings alone should be substaintial
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
im extremely excited to see what luke will do with a real defense behind him
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
I hope he stays healthy
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
hopefully his actual results
will mirror or exceed his FIP results
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
I expect a big ERA improvement, as long as he's healthy
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
were his injuries arm related or were there random other bullshit?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
His 2010 injury was "elbow strain"
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
Though ERA strain
was possible.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I can't tell you how much that decreases ERA
But a change from one of the worst defenses in baseball to even an ok defense helps the pitching, and therefore the Runs Allowed a lot. And it is possible that the Royals may have even an above average defense in 2011
LF – Gordon average to above average
CF – Cain average to above average
RF- Francoeur average to above average
C – Kendall/Pena/etc. average to below average
1B – Butler -below average
2B – Getz/Aviles – above average
3B – Aviles/Betemit – average to below average
SS – Escobar – above average
Catcher and first base are the only below average spots. 3B is only below average if/when Betemit plays there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's a bit quick to give Gordon average to above average.
He’s not Manny out there but he did show some issues last year.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
its very reasonable to think that he'll be average to above
he didnt embarrass himself last year…he’s got the necessary tools and an entire offseason/spring to continue learning
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Got the necessary tools?
That’s like Gordon’s MLB bio
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Just speculating
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
You're usually against that.
Holiday spirit must be getting to you.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I don't mind people speculating as long as it is recognized as such
I really don’t know if my even very general defensive labels for those players is right. But they are fairly realistic. And I just did it to show a picture of the Royals team defense which appears to be decent.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
About a 0.3 point swing in ERA from one the worst defensive teams, to just and average defensive team
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/effects-of-defense-on-era-and-whip/
I am not sure I trust that person’s work though
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 19, 2010 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
re: the extra 10 mil to spend
what would he spend it on? i guess a starting P is the most likely spot, but it seems that we’re already overflowing in the OF and IF, so i wonder what we could spend for…
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Dec 19, 2010 10:45 PM EST reply actions
i don't think they'll spend it this year...
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
i'll be shocked if he doesnt sign 1 or 2 famous starting pitchers
bedard, webb, millwood, etc
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
i'd be shocked if he did sign someone like that
i think webb would be a great sign though.
at this point i think they’re just going to go full boar with the youth and see what sticks.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
i just hope they dont bring guys up before they're ready....
id rather have a couple million dollars dropped into a shitty starter or two than bringing up any of the guys too early
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
yes...
none of the big 4 LHP’s are ready i don’t think. Teaford though might be and with the bounty of prospects behind him it might be a good idea to give him a look. maybe Crow too but hey i admit to loving me some Aaron Crow.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Didn't Webb have a huge drop in velocity?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
he was reportedly at 83 or so a few months ago....
i read somewhere…cant remember where, that the velo should come back to close to its previous levels as he gets further from the surgery
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
What is Jose "Magic Beans" Lima up to these days?
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Dec 19, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Cuban FAs please
Give me guys who will be here five years from now.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
This trade is not horrible, but it's not
what I really wanted to see either. It’s not bad considering it was made by Dayton Moore. Now, I fully expect a Millwood signing or maybe Chris Young. It’s possible we will see two Veteran FA pitchers sign. This rotation looks historically bad. I don’t have any illusions about winning. I just want some true innings eaters so that the young guys don’t get demoralized too much. I would welcome a Kevin Millwood signing and probably Bruce Chen back as well. They could always be dealt at the deadline if some young kids are ready.
I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.
-- Source Unknown
by royaldaddy on Dec 19, 2010 10:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I worry that he'll go out and blow like 2/$14 on Millwood
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
do the rangers have a payroll shortfall?
maybe he can coax nolan out of retirement
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
Wouldn't surprise me a bit
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
5th starter cattlecall time
In the Org in 2010: Duffy, Teaford, Luis Mendoza, the inexplicable and irresponsible starting return of Gil Meche, Gaby Hernandez, and Bruce Chen
IIRC, Bullington is gone, Humber was DFAed, Lerew is going to Japan.
Old Dudes who started in AAA in 2010: Andy Van Hekken (31, pitched in Round Rock, former Omaha Royal in 2006, last appeared in the majors in 2002), Brian Lawrence (approaching 35, pitched in New Orleans, made 146 starts with the Padres from 2001 to 2005), Seth Etherton (34, pitched in Albuquerque, last appeared in the majors in 2006 as a Royal), Marty McLeary (36, last pitched in Nashville, 29 ML innings from 2004 to 2006), Kyle Middleton (approaching 31, last pitched in Sacramento, drafted by the Royals, pitched for the Royals from 2000 to 2006, never played in the majors), Brian Mazone (34, last pitched in Lehigh Valley, pitched in Atlanta in 1998, then disappeared from affiliated ball until 2003, no ML experience), Brandon Duckworth (35, last pitched in Lehigh Valley, pitched in the Royals organization from 2006 to 2009, perennial favorite in these situations, might need time to adjust to the team moving to Sarpy County), Chris George (31, last pitched in Norfolk, listed because I did not know he was still in affiliated baseball, his K-rate in 2010 is the best it’s been as a starter since 2000, last ML appearance was in 2004 as a Royal)
This list is the Star Trek Ensign list of guys who are probably going to be in someone’s minor league rotation in 2011. Ideally, the MLFAs for Omaha should be dudes who are 28/29.
You know who won the ERA title in Mexico in 2010? Mac Suzuki. So trust me, there’s a lot of early 2000s Royals still pitching. And honestly, the Atlantic League has better old guy pitching talent than Mexico. Speaking of that.. hmmm.
But seriously, Omaha needs filler until at least July or so. Dudes who can easily lose their jobs to the Naturals players.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Poor Gil
I’d love to see him have one last go at it but I’m worried his arm would fall off, ala Dave Dravecky, right there on the mound
by sterlingice on Dec 19, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
he's tanned, rested, and ready
Only 5 Royals have picked up a win when they gave up 7 earned runs or more in that game. Paul Splitorff, Rich Gale, Bret Saberhagen, Tom Gordon, and Chris George.
And to be fair to Splitorff, the Royals were up 20-2 in the bottom of the 8th when he gave up 5 runs. It was a different time.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
If only we had traded him for Hank Blaylock when we had the chance!
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Emotional Question
Since some of the posters here are being called out for making their analyses of this trade based solely on how they feel about GMDM, how about something that’s 100% subjective…
I think while many of us might be a little annoyed with Zack’s insistance on a trade after signing an extension – especially after the patience he’s been giving during the mental health portion of his career – most of us generally liked Zack and wish him well, especially since his 2009 campaign is the only thing we’ve really had to follow seriously since 1985 (2003 slightly excepted). Regardless of what we got in the trade or what we could have got with other trades, how do you all feel about Zack going to the Brewers? With a 1 being Zack staying with the Royals and leading the 2014 parade in the Plaza and 30 being him pitching for the Yankees, where does Milwaukee rank?
by Tracer Bullet 82 on Dec 19, 2010 11:10 PM EST reply actions
15?
i really wanted him to go somewhere like NY or Boston…i really think he’d thrive and would love to see it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Just for the story maybe
but I really, really hate those two baseball teams. The Mets probably would have been #2 for me.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
for some reason i dont mind the yankees
but absolutely abhor the sox
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
The Bosox were the team to abhor from 2005-2008
Now it’s the Phillies.
But the Yankees are the one to hate.
i liked steinbrenner and the way they operate....
that guy did anything and everything he could to build a winner…it wasnt about the bottom line…winning was his bottom line…and he was crazy…and thats always fun…and david cone was my favorite pitcher ever
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
And that's all fair
but Yankees fan always ignore the massive advantage inherit with their market. That puts them at the top. The response of “If the Royals would just spend, they’d be fine” gets f’ng old.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
oh...i didnt say i dont hate the fans
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, he did everything he could to build a winner
and failed pretty badly (cf. most of the 1980s). It was while he was banned from day-to-day management of the team that the seeds of success of the ’90s and aughts were sown.
But you lionize him if you like. Lots of folks do.
by 2X2L on Dec 19, 2010 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
7 ws wins in 30 years?
i think thats close…thats pretty fucking successful
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
i was countering your argument that he didnt do a good job of winning
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:41 PM EST up reply actions
every move made since he came back has gone through steinbrenner….there are numerous reports of moves being made or not made b/c of what he wanted…..
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
What I'm saying
is that with that team’s resources, they could have won more often than they did, and the reason that they didn’t was very clearly Steinbrenner and his (as you call it) craziness. Not that I’m complaining about it. I’m just amazed that you think he’s all that.
Let me put it this way. Before the Steinbrenners, the Yankees won 20 World Championships in 72 years. In the Steinbrenner era, they’ve won 7 in 38 years. You do the math. (Yes, there are more teams competing, but this is also the era of free agency, huge local TV money etc. etc.)
I'm not gonna rate it but ZG going to Brewers is very good for them and if not for Yuni
they would probably win the division.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
5
I like the Brewers and I’m glad he went to an NL team so I don’t have to see him against the Royals…and so he gets to hit!
And I like seeing small market teams land these players. Sick of seeing the Yanks and Sox get em all.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
5
It’s like your ex-girlfriend dropping you and heading to Bulgaria for junior year abroad.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Posnanski just weighed in
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/12/19/the-greinke-trade/
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
oh god....do i even want to read it?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
Just tweeted, I haven't read the first line yet.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Gets the pot issue completely wrong by leaving out the fact Jeffress will never be tested again, and I question his logic in saying the fact he tested positive twice shows he’s not committed to the game. Jeffress didn’t refuse an AFL assignment, he got high. Maybe he has a substance abuse problem. If it was alcohol he’d be sick, not showing questionable committment.
He’s also wrong to say that Marcum is that great, especially when he’s going to have to play with Betancourt behind him.
Also wrong to get upset we traded for prospects. Does he want us to trade for more expensive established vets to make sure we win 63 games this year?
Really poor overall. I expect better from Posnanksi. I understand wishing we got more in the trade, but Greinke had to be moved in the next few months because there will be comparable (or even better) guys available at the deadline.
I'm chiming in late
And I don’t know if this board has approved or disapproved of this trade, but, as one of Dayton’s biggest haters on this forum I actually…..like this trade?
Escobar probably won’t ever hit with any kind of power, he already plays exceptional defense, has exceptional speed, and has hit in the minors. If he can post a .330 OBA or so, with his defense, and with the deep power alleys (triples baby!) and 30-40 steals a year (I know, steals are overrated), he can be quite valuable. And the position is secure for five seasons .Nice.
I’ve been a Cain fan for awhile. Seems like a younger David DeJesus to me. Good plate discipline, good defense, not a lot of power, but projects to have more power as he ages. Already posted a 107 OPS+ in 150 PAs last year. He could very well be our best valuable player next year not named Billy Butler.
Odorizzi is a guy I really liked the year he was drafted and he hasn’t done anything to dissuade me of that. I think his upside is probably more a #2/#3 guy, but hard to project at this point. Good to have another arm.
And Jeffress is just the kind of guy you want as a lottery ticket – great arm, some question marks, but hey, great arm!
All in all, we got three guys that were considered in the top ten of this organization’s (albeit thin system) system, and their starting shortstop with five years of service time left. Who was going to offer a better deal than that? I think Dayton played this pretty well. And by all looks of things, we will actually see a starting lineup on opening day with all the player 30 or younger:
C Brayan Pena (29)
1B Billy Butler (25)
2B Chris Getz (27)
3B Mike Aviles (30)
SS Alcides Escobar (24)
LF Alex Gordon (27)
CF Lorenzo Cain (25)
RF Jeff Franceour (27)
DH Kila Kaaihue (26)
Rover: Melky Cabrera (26)
Wow. Its going to be rough, but man that system is loaded.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
some midseason call ups could make that lineup even younger
i’m thinkin Moose mostly, and maybe Giavotella. they’re probably looking, ideally, at a future DP combo of Escobar and Colon, but i don’t think they’ll want to punt on Giavotella either just because of that. i think they’ll give him a look in the majors if he gets off to a nice start in Omaha.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Gio could be a nice utility guy for a bit
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
most likely outcome...
but at the chance he is more, i’d like to see him get a look. again, pending that he does well in Omaha (and i suppose pending that Getz does bad like we assume). and at the chance that he does look like a potential starter, you can then either re-evaluate or have a really nice trade chip.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
i think we have different definitions of utility....
giavotella can play one position….and play it poorly
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
Right
It makes more sense to hide him around the field, especially at less demanding positions like 3B or LF.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
we cant really assume that he can play those positions passably
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
and in almost all cases...a utility guy has to be able to play SS without being a complete embarrassment
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
I think we're talking about different utility guys
You’re talking about the no-hit kinda utility guy like Willie Bloomquist
I’m talking about the good hit, no field kinda utility guy like Wilson Betimet is going to be this year.
He’s not going to play any position much more than passably, which is why he won’t start, but he can be a decent guy to play at a number of positions.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 19, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
How is his arm?
If he’s got a fairly storng arm, I’d be shocked if he couldn’t handle 3B.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
very few 2b have good arms
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think Colon and Bianchi can be utility guys but
with Gio is pretty much second base or bust.
Go Royals!
yeah...bianchi's gonna be the guy
if he can stay healthy
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
I never liked that draft pick. I hope he proves me wrong. But I see Colon at second for the Royals going forward.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
it wasnt great...
but i had no major problems with it either….4 was a really shitty spot to pick
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Does his bat play there?
I remember at the draft the somewhat consensus was that he was a solid pick if he sticks at SS, a bad one if he had to move. Or I may be thinking of someone else.
In fairness, he might well be capable of sticking at SS but he’s not much use to the Royals any more if he does.
by kcbottom9th on Dec 19, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
i dont think it'll be a big plus bat at 2b
but definitely passable
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 19, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'm talking about Gia
And no one talked about him sticking at SS, I don’t htink. I thought he was drafted as a 2B. Colon was a guy who they said was a good pick if he stuck at SS but maybe he wouldn’t stick there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
I’ve felt he was going to become David Eckstein II since he was drafted.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 19, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
oh...i completely missed that you were talking about gia
i absolutely hated that pick
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 20, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Are we still talking about Johnny?
Supposedly, he has a good arm. I imagine him playing 3rd as well as Callaspo.
Well
here’s a list of minor league free agents. Including such luminaries as Clay Zavada (who is probably not pitching much in 2011 due to TJS), Daniel Cabrera (who only pitched good v. the Royals, it seemed), knuckleballer Charlie Zink, former Omaha Royal Mike Maroth, and Tony Pena Jr.
A wealth of talent is out there.
And surprisingly, Irving Falu is not a minor league free agent yet, despite 2 complete years in Omaha in a row with a 3rd on the horizon.
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Sign Zink
knuckleballers are fun
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 19, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
to expand on Zink
his main attribute lately is his hilariously bad K:BB ratios. 93/47 in 2009, 19/3 in 2010. That’s BB:K
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
DUCKY IS AVAILABLE!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 20, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
Duckworth Now!
every old guy pitcher I linked to up-page is a MLFA
the best part of looking at any MLFA list is finding out how many of them are former Royals, especially former Baird-era Royals
and Jacque Jones is available, remember when he was good?
FIRE DAYTON MOORE and Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo
Remember when he rejected us for a lesser deal with the Cubs?
Dodged a bullet there.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 20, 2010 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Nearly 900 Comments...
And I bet 200 of them are from NYR
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
He's trying to hide from the pain of the Giants loss today
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 20, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
How dare you, sir
I’m a Chiefs fan.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
Ha
I actually figured you weren’t a football fan at all. I just wanted to bring up their epic failure today.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 20, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
38 2nd half fantasy points for vick...woohoo
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 20, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah its gonna get me into the RR Fantasy Football championship
We've all been raised on television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars... But we wont, and we're slowly learning that fact... and we're very very pissed off --- Tyler Durden
by averagegatsby on Dec 20, 2010 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
It was pathetic
And that screw up on a last second punt is indefensible. I’d fire the punter and the special teams coach on the spot.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 20, 2010 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
New Article Up
Use it as an overflow
http://www.royalsreview.com/2010/12/20/1886628/the-aftermath-of-the-greinke-trade-the-starters
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 20, 2010 12:08 AM EST reply actions
Meh had been leading Good all day
but at this writing Good has taken the lead, 396-395.
Moore takes this as a clear mandate to tear down everything that remains.
great
now I have to get a new username
by Zackkkkkkkkkkkkkkk on Dec 22, 2010 12:12 AM EST reply actions
These are the unintended consequences that no one ever thinks about
Won’t someone please think of the children :D
by sterlingice on Dec 22, 2010 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
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