FanPost

Evaluating Dayton Moore's FA Signings


Otherwise known as "setting money on fire in the Kauffman Stadium parking lot."

Methodology

Using the significant free agent signing list from Royals Authority I took the salary paid in each year to Moore-signed free agents from Baseball Reference.  I then took WAR values from Fangraphs for each year of each signing.  Using this, I determined total dollars spent in each year, total wins accrued.  I then took estimated WAR values from Fangraphs to determine how the price Moore paid for wins compared to the market.

In 2007 and 2008, Moore paid a lower rate per win than the market, due to Meche's strong performance.  For 2007, Moore's free agents cost 16.6 million and delivered 5.8 wins, for a net cost per win of $2.86 million.  That was 1.2 wins greater than expected.  For 2008, Moore's free agents cost $29.15 million and delivered 5.9 wins, 1.5 wins more than expected.

The wheels fall off in 2009 and 2010.  For 2009, Moore's free agents delivered 2.3 wins at a cost of $42.94 million, 9.7 wins less than would be expected.  For 2010, Moore's free agents delivered 3.0 wins at a cost of $41.2 million, 5.5 wins less than would be expected.

In short, if the Royals had simply gotten market performance out of free agents signings they would have had a 75-86 record in 2009 and a 73-89 record last year.  That's what happens when you take a bunch of money and set in on fire in the Kauffman parking lot.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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