Best Four Current Royals Outfielders (No Particular Order)
- Alex Gordon
- Lorenzo Cain
- Gregor Blanco
- MITCH Maier
over 1 year ago
Matt Klaassen
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not sure i'd put Lorenzo over Gregor yet
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Eh
Maybe. We’ll see. Stats aren’t the whole story.
stats are the record we have for what happened
they are at least 99% of whatever story that actually matters
by Freneau on Dec 22, 2010 1:52 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They're very good at telling you what happened.
They’re less good at telling you what will happen. I know Francoeur and Cabrera haven’t had good seasons in the last couple years, but they’re younger than Maier, and unlike Maier, they have had good seasons ever. The projections are probably pretty similar for those 3, but I like Maier’s upside the least.
Stats are the best indicator we have of what will happen in the future, by a large margin
Past performance does not dictate future results, but good statistical projections will get you a more accurate prognostication than anything else (gut feeling, tools-based analysis, scout opinion, etc.).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 22, 2010 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
9 outfielders on the 40 man.
well…
if you have really extreme flyball pitchers…
also the Royals are ready to shag balls for the homerun derby in 2012.
Go Royals!
I'm telling you now, they're going to use a rover.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Move Maier to the top & its a good list....
"As a Karate expert, I will not talk about any of you." Jimmy McMillan
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Dec 22, 2010 11:04 AM EST reply actions
Did everyone miss the "no particular order" thing?
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 22, 2010 11:24 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
jeeez, you expect us to read EVERYTHING??????
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Dec 22, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well, not everyone
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I like MITCH
I like that he’s cheap and I like that he’s been a good soldier for a lot of years, but I think its a tough sell to say he is definitively better than Francoeur.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
i agree with this
sadly. but it’s probably true.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
i wrote an email
to the poor season ticket account rep today about how I am not sure if i want to renew.
I can handle the losing & for the most part the suckitude that is this team. What I cant handle is watching a bunch of rental players year after year.
Francour is signed to a one year deal with a PLAYER option…. WTF!!! Either we watch him suck, or we watch him have a good year & run off as a FA. LOSE! LOSE!
If we are gonna watch a team lose 100 games, I’d rather we “dance with who brung us”… Watch Mitch, Alex, Dyson, Lough, etc..
Now.. put us in contention.. yes, any slight upgrade (not that i think melky & frenchy are) is worth consideration.. but at this point… just give me guys i can root for.
@@@Just assume I forgot the sarcasm font @@@ ... now, if I could just figure out the ### cynical font ###
I thought Francoeur had a mutual option for 2012
Meaning both sides have to agree. But the overall point remains. And there’s a decent chance that Moore would be happy to excerise Francoeur’s option regardless of how he performs, because Moore really isn’t about performance. He’s about tools and intangibles and I’m sure both of those things will be extraordinary in 2001 for Frenchy.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 22, 2010 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure if the year you wrote was a typo
but it was hilarious.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
by mazoboom on Dec 22, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I dont know if this is conincidence
But Royals Authority posted this exact order this morning (but it was meant to be in order)
I don’t really see what your motive is in making this list, as I feel I am missing a joke (unless the joke is the state of the royals outfield)
Probably half that
and half poking fun at the Frenchy/Cabrera signings
The joke is that these are likely the Royals best four OFers, and two guys that have a good chance of being starters (Francoeur definitely and Melky maybe) aren’t even on the list.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 22, 2010 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
the cabrera/francouer signings...
everything I can think to say about them are obvious enough that they’ll waste everyone’s time.
Who's going to play 3B in Wilmington this year? Would Moore be foolish in asking for a seasoned organizational 3B in return for MITCH or should we hold out for the best organizational player possible?
aw, i guess my sarcasm is typically much shorter...
point being we’re going to trade MITCH for absolutely nothing or the equivalent.
Half will be in Omaha
That’s just sad. (and I think that was Matt’s point)
Heh, at least that will lead to some inane GMDM comments about organizational depth
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Top 5 wOBA for outfielders for 2011 in the Royals system
Name wOBA
Gordon, Alex 0.341
Smith, Tim 0.313
Francoeur, Jeff 0.308
Lough, David 0.307
Maier, Mitch 0.307
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
What set of projections is that from?
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by Matt Klaassen on Dec 22, 2010 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, Oliver, but they hate Frenchy's D.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 22, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
Tim Smith?
Another data point on why I don’t think Oliver is a particularly good projection system. There’s no reason why his projection should be second highest among Royals OFers. It certainly shouldn’t be higher than Lough’s based on what the two of them have done in recent years, comparing age-by-age and level-by-level performance. It also seems like Cain should be higher based on his 2010 and 2008 performances.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 22, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
tim smith....
awesome projection system
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
Sarcasm?
I hope so.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
Zips has Smith rated higher also
It looks like Lough’s last year at Omaha killed him. I will see what Brian C (creator of Oliver) has to say the reason is for discrepancies. Heck, Dan S (Zips creator) will probably answer also. Let me see what I can find out.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Dec 23, 2010 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Odd
I don’t see why Lough’s 2010 AAA season would have sunk his projection. Is a .344 wOBA in AAA at age 24 really worse than a .375 wOBA in AA at age 24? Perhaps in a projection system, yes. But I think there’s a reason why Lough has made it to AAA at age 24 and Smith has not. And if one were to project their defense based on the minor league TZ, I think Lough comes out on top (which of course ZiPS doesn’t try to project). Lough has a career +15 TZ in the OF, compared to Smith’s -11.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
1. Gordon
2. Cain
3. Francouer
4. Blanco/Cabrera
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Francoeur only makes it if you throw stats out the window
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
i have a hard time buying gordon over cain....
wont there be like a 15-20 run difference on defense?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2010 5:50 AM EST up reply actions
Will there be?
Maybe, but… While Cain is almost certainly the better defender of the two, I doubt Cain is 15-20 runs better defensively at his position (CF) than Gordon will be at his (LF). Also, Cain’s defensive pedigree isn’t exactly spotless. The best minor league defensive metric (TotalZone) has him at a total of -11 runs in CF over his minor league career. Now that doesn’t include 2010 (I don’t know where to find TZ updated for 2010 in the minors) and it is heavily skewed by a big -15 number from 2009. This probably due to a small sample size blip and/or him dealing with injuries that season. But even without 2009, the CF numbers aren’t great.
My point is that I think there is good reason to be skeptical about whether Cain is going to be a great defensive CFer. I think he’ll likely be a good defensive CFer. Similarly, I think Gordon will be an average or above average defensive LFer in 2010. In short, I wouldn’t be surprised with a 10-run fielding difference between them, but I’d be surprised if it was much more than that. And I think their offensive run differential will be well in excess of 10.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
i dont' know how to calculate the difference on defense
when taking positions into account. i’m thinking +5 for Cain in CF and +5 for Gordon in LF.
but i think it’s pretty close between them. Gordon’s bat will be better next year though so that is what sealed it for me.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
I'd switch Cabrera and Francoeur
but I prefer this list to the purely stats-based list.
If I may ask
What do you think this list is based on? (stix can also answer if he’d like) And, why would a projection/prediction/evaluation like this be superior to one based on stats?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
I think Francoeur and Cabrera are more likely to be good than Maier
They’re younger and they have some upside. They’ve also had seasons where they’ve been above average. Maier is a known quantity.
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