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Royals 2011 Top 60 Prospects; #32-26




The ranks of the Royals prospects swelled this past week.  I'm not sure what I can add about the Greinke trade--I went through the same cycle I've heard from many Royals fans:  Initially disappointed that the Royals didn't go for more upside and then becoming more optimistic when looking at the whole package.   Once you start making a 2013 lineup and it looks very strong with lots of intriguing leftovers.  We now have 32 prospects left to cover and so I've got reports on 7 this and there will be 7 more next time.  You can find prospects #62-33 here. After the jump I'll give some thoughts on Escobar and Cain and then get to the scouting reports.

Star-divide

By now every Royals fan knows Alcides Escobar was ranked #12 on Baseball America's prospect list last year.  And they all also know that he stunk at the plate last year.  And most of them also know that his BABIP was really low. If that bounces back then Escobar can be quite useful.  Lorenzo Cain--as Dave Cameron pointed out over at Fangraphs--has the opposite problem;  his inflated BABIP will probably come back to earth.  But he can be a plus fielder who doesn't kill you with the bat.  

When I wrapped up the series on what we can expect from a top rated farm system, I noted that the Royals will probably need to find 15-20 WAR to supplement the farm system.  I think its reasonable to expect that DM has found 4-5 WAR a year combined in Escobar and Cain.  As for Jeffress and Odorizzi, they will have their own reports as we move through the Top 32.  On to what is now the Top 32 Prospects for the Royals in 2011.

32. Clint Robinson--1B--DOB:2/16/85

Year Age Tm Lev Aff G PA AB SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 22 Idaho Falls Rk KCR 67 278 253 2 0 19 42 .336 .388 .593 .981
2008 23 Burlington A KCR 106 424 379 0 3 37 67 .264 .333 .472 .806
2009 24 Wilmington A+ KCR 124 483 436 4 3 35 79 .298 .356 .463 .819
2010 25 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 129 548 477 4 3 58 86 .335 .410 .625 1.035
4 Seasons 426 1733 1545 10 9 149 274 .307 .373 .537 .909
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.

 

Clint Robinson is a fun guy to root for.  Drafted out of Troy University the big first baseman put up pretty good numbers his first few years but has always been a little old for his league.  In 2010, he put up pretty good numbers to start the year at AA but then got on fire in June and never cooled off.  I don' have the exact numbers, but from June on it was something like 400/480/750. Robinson ended up winning the Texas League triple crown.  The big concern is that he hit 285/347/532 on the road.  Those are still good numbers but they aren't the jaw dropping numbers that his home park helped create.  Robinson's power is real and he's gotten better defensively.  It's hard to see where he fits on the Royals club going forward.  He will get to enjoy another hitter friendly league in 2011 when he's at Omaha.

Schaum did an interview with Robinson here.

31. Crawford Simmons--LHP--DOB:6/10/91

The Royals drafted Simmons in the 14th Round of the 2009 draft and gave him an above slot signing bonus ($450,000).  He debuted in 2010 at short-season Burlington where he posted a 3.71 FIP while averaging 8.2/k and 2.1 bb per 9ip.  He has a traditional fastball/curve/change arsenal.  The stuff isn't overwhelming but he commands it well.  The question will be how more experienced hitters handle his stuff.  He should get to challenge Midwest League hitters at Kane County in 2011.

30. Jeff Bianchi--SS--DOB:10/5/86

Year Age Tm Lev Aff G PA AB SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2005 18 Royals Rk KCR 28 122 98 5 2 16 22 .408 .484 .745 1.229
2006 19 Royals Rk KCR 12 54 42 1 1 9 3 .429 .537 .667 1.204
2007 20 Burlington A KCR 99 403 368 15 4 25 72 .247 .296 .315 .611
2008 21 Wilmington A+ KCR 104 431 396 13 4 20 95 .255 .290 .442 .732
2009 22 2 Teams AA-A+ KCR 128 542 490 22 6 39 105 .308 .358 .435 .792
2009 22 Wilmington A+ KCR 60 245 220 12 2 20 47 .300 .360 .427 .787
2009 22 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 68 297 270 10 4 19 58 .315 .356 .441 .797
5 Seasons 371 1552 1394 56 17 109 297 .288 .339 .434 .773
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.

 

Somewhere out there is an alternate universe where Jeff Bianchi was healthy for 2010, put up decent numbers at Omaha and what DM looked for in the Zack Greinke trade is very different.  But Bianchi did have TJ surgery and miss the 2010 season.  As far as I know, he should be back in 2011.  Bianchi has a good bat for a SS and the defense chops to stay at SS.  The question has always been health--he's had a lot of injuries and his arm needs to come back for him to stay at SS.  He should get a chance at Omaha to prove he is healthy.  With the addition of Escobar though, his future is somewhat cloudy with the organization.

29. Noel Arguelles--LHP--DOB:1/12/90

The Royals signed Cuban defector Noel Arguelles last offseason to a $7 million contract. 2010 was a disaster for the pitcher and he didn't throw a single pitch in a pro game.  He faced injury and there whispers about his attitude.  Arguelles had surgery on his shoulder--it wasn't major surgery and he is expected to be ready to pitch in spring training.  When healthy he has an above average fastball with a curve and change that can be above average pitches.  As with many young pitchers, he needs better command and control of both.  I'm guessing he will be at Wilmington in 2011.  He's got a lot of talent and could be in the Top 10 next year if he can prove he's healthy and motivated.

28, Buddy Baumann--LHP--DOB:12/9/87

Year Age Tm Lev Aff ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 21 Burlington Rk KCR 1.80 3 0 5.0 0.800 7.2 1.8 0.0 9.0
2010 22 Wilmington A+ KCR 2.24 31 14 100.1 1.116 6.8 0.3 3.2 10.1 3.14
2 Seasons 2.22 34 14 105.1 1.101 6.8 0.3 3.1 10.1 3.28
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.

 

A personal favorite of mine, the Royals took Baumann in the 7th Round of the 2009 draft out of Missouri State--where he had had an extremely successful junior year.  He has a fastball, slider, change-up arsenal and he knows how to use it and commands it well.  He's only 5' 10" so there will be questions about his durability as a starter.  As you can see, he dominated at Wilmington.  He should be in the running to be on an extremely talented Northwest Arkansas pitching staff.  It will be very interesting to see how he responds to moving to such a hitting friendly environment--Baumann is a sleeper to keep an eye on.

Schaum did another excellent interview with Baumann here.

27. Tyler Sample--RHP--DOB:6/27/89

Year Age Tm Lev Aff ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 19 Royals Rk KCR 9.00 10 8 27.0 2.185 10.0 0.0 9.7 13.0 1.34
2009 20 2 Teams Rk KCR 3.13 14 11 54.2 1.152 6.8 0.3 3.6 8.1 2.23
2009 20 Royals Rk KCR 6.75 2 2 4.0 2.250 15.8 0.0 4.5 11.2 2.50
2009 20 Burlington Rk KCR 2.84 12 9 50.2 1.066 6.0 0.4 3.6 7.8 2.20
2010 21 Burlington A KCR 4.69 26 26 121.0 1.653 7.8 0.6 7.1 8.6 1.21
3 Seasons 4.84 50 45 202.2 1.589 7.8 0.4 6.5 9.0 1.39
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.

 

The Royals took Sample in the 3rd Round of the 2008 draft out of HS in the Denver area.  He's a big righthander who a very good fastball that sits in the low 90s with downward movement.  He has a curve that has potential but his change-up has been very inconsistent.  It looked like Sample was making progress in 2009 as his control took a step forward.  But 2010 was a disaster.  His control was non-existent.  Sample has a ton of potential but needs to put it together.  He could also be moved to the bullpen to see if that helps.  I'm not sure where he goes for 2011--he could go back to the Midwest League or they could ahead and let him go to Wilmington and see if he benefits from an extremely pitching friendly environment.

26. Everett Teaford--LHP--DOB:5/15/84

Year Age Tm Lev Aff ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 22 Idaho Falls Rk KCR 3.71 15 12 63.0 1.175 7.7 0.4 2.9 7.3 2.55
2007 23 Burlington A KCR 4.68 27 21 134.2 1.359 9.8 0.7 2.4 5.6 2.33
2008 24 Wilmington A+ KCR 3.80 28 23 144.1 1.254 8.4 0.9 2.9 7.2 2.52
2009 25 2 Teams AA-A+ KCR 3.91 27 27 145.0 1.262 8.5 1.2 2.9 5.6 1.98
2009 25 Wilmington A+ KCR 2.39 11 11 64.0 0.984 7.2 1.0 1.7 6.9 4.08
2009 25 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 5.11 16 16 81.0 1.481 9.6 1.3 3.8 4.7 1.24
2010 26 2 Teams AA-AAA KCR 3.82 28 13 103.2 1.273 8.6 0.8 2.9 10.2 3.55
2010 26 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 3.36 27 12 99.0 1.242 8.3 0.6 2.9 10.3 3.53
2010 26 Omaha AAA KCR 13.50 1 1 4.2 1.929 15.4 3.9 1.9 7.7 4.00
5 Seasons 4.02 125 96 590.2 1.275 8.7 0.9 2.8 7.0 2.54
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/20/2010.


The Royals took Teaford in the 12th Round way back in the 2006 draft. He had pitched OK but then something clicked last year.  After getting pounded at AA in 2009, Teaford was great in 2010--getting better as the year went on.  Our own 306008 chronicled Teaford here.  Teaford was showing an above average fastball/curve with a good change to go with it.   I'm not exactly sure what we have here but there is the possibility Teaford has figured it out and is a late bloomer.  He'll be 27 in 2011 and only has 4+ innings at AAA but he may get a shot at Royals #5 starter in Spring Training.  His development only adds to the embarrassment of riches the Royals have pitching from the left side.

Comment 63 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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That is a crazy good 26-32 prospect list.

     Three guys on the 40 man, a triple crown winner, a possible 5th starter this year and a a possible big leauge shotstop who can now be the utility infielder, and then add 4 possible top of the order rotation guys.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 22, 2010 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

Bianchi

I’ve always liked him, and it would be nice if he ended up our utility player with Escobar working out.

by BrRoyal on Dec 22, 2010 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

A bolder scenario:

Bianchi reestablishes his health and continues his hitting, to the point where the Royals are confident to trade Escobar in a couple of years, after he has established himself as better than he was in 2010. Escobar could bring a hell of a haul; this is the way you can continue to have a dominant farm system, even if the Royals are forced to start drafting in the lower third by 2013 or so.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Dec 22, 2010 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

That’s a better outcome, actually. Escobar is arb eligible in 2013.

by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 22, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Clint is an interesting prospect and possibly underrated

Is there any reason besides age, pedigree, and defense why he’s not compared more favorably to say Hosmer? (Defense is obviously a big deal, but less so since we’re talking about 1B vs DH here.)

Is he supposed to have a hole in his swing or slow bat speed? I mean, he’s got the home/road split thing going on, but is there any other reason to assume he can’t be a productive major league hitter?

by jsolo on Dec 22, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Assuming he's a DH only - which I think is the case

Defense isn’t really a factor. I mean, it’s not like we’re valuing a free agent. He’s at minimum cost, and as primarily a DH, we’re just looking at offense for all intents and purposes. Yes, that makes him less of a prospect than someone who’s going to hit and be a star defensively, but it certainly doesn’t mean he can’t be a high prospect.

Age is a factor, but it’s not like he’s about to hit 30. As a DH, no reason he can’t have multiple years as a productive hitter.

Pedigree – well not much to say here. Some of the best players were high prospects others weren’t. I’m sure plenty of 25th rounders have become all-stars.

by jsolo on Dec 22, 2010 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

he's also a guy

who last year at 24 was not good in AA…..if he is awesome again this year….he’ll be someone to talk about. right now, he’s a 4th 1b/DH that you stash at AAA

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

True

He could be the next Calving Pickering/Brandon Berger. A year at AAA should shed some light on whether or not the switch has been flipped for him.

by jsolo on Dec 22, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

The age thing

The issues is not that he’s almost 30, its that his production has to be viewed a little more critically because he’s been older than his competition at almost every level. Older guys tend to do better than younger guys. Now that he’s performed well at the upper levels, where you have 30 year olds in some cases, we can start to say “maybe he’s for real after all.” But we’ll see.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 22, 2010 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

If he's a DH

the bar is set pretty high for the kind of production he would need to be an asset. I’m rooting for the guy—but it’s hard to read his performance last year and a year in the PCL could also cloud his true talent.

by nwroyal on Dec 22, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes sense

A great year in Omaha will help his prospect status no doubt, but then he’ll also be 26.

I guess I don’t mind the DH thing so much because the Royals have been so underwhelming at the position for so long. As a Royal’s DH prospect an 800 OPS guy in the majors would seem like an all-star… Granted, between Kila, Butler, and Betemit, it’s looking considerably better for next year.

by jsolo on Dec 22, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Bat speed IIRC.

by WURoyal on Dec 22, 2010 6:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Clint is interesting. Statistically, he really reminds me of Ryan Shealy, who was regarded much higher. I’ll be rooting for him in AAA this year for sure!

by WURoyal on Dec 22, 2010 12:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

good stuff, as usual - my two cents:

Bianchi – I don’t see him making the top 10 in this system simply b/c of his injury history (I know different people have differing opinions on whether injuries should factor into a prospect’s rating – I think they should, at least to an extent).
Sample – seems like he’ll start in the Midwest League again since the org doesn’t like to move guys up until they’ve shown progress.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 12:58 PM EST reply actions  

I am beginning to look forward to the Wilmington rotation

if Arguelles is part of the mix – which I doubt he will.

1. Odorizzi – He will be the ace of the staff. I think he will be the best player of the trade.
2. Melville – don’t see him breaking the Naturals potential rotation. He can stand to repeat after the awful 2010
3. Marks – Coming from the A’s. College LH
4. Sample
5. Arguelles

That is a rotation with lots of potential. It doesn’t include Pimental who came in Podsednik trade, Hayenga, or any other starter from Burlington last year.

by daveyork on Dec 22, 2010 4:25 PM EST reply actions  

what makes you so high on Odorizzi?

Just curious.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Goldstein says he's our #8 prospect and 5th best pitching prospect,

that he’d be top 3 overall in most other systems, and his upside is a borderline #2 starter.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12605

Sounds exciting, but let’s hope that comes true and Escobar and Cain are better than that.

by AxDxMx on Dec 22, 2010 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

A couple scouts call him Greinkelite

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 22, 2010 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I have heard that, too, and I don't believe it

starting with mid-90s fastball vs low-90s fastball. Zack is an established #1, Odo has a #2 ceiling and has yet to hit AA. Odo’s K and BB rates have been good, I suppose, but nothing special.

Do we just call any pitcher with a low-90s fastball and #2 ceiling “Greinke-lite”?

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

really? after they brought him back (convinced him to come back, I mean)?

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s pretty common for young pitchers with a projectable body to add strength and thus velocity through their late teens and early 20’s. In part, that’s what happened to Greinke. But also he said that his stint in the bullpen in 2007 taught him to trust his fastball and throw it hard and not just try to pinpoint it. I think that’s a big reason why you saw his fastball jump from an average of 92-93 to 93-94.

But I think we shouldn’t overestimate Greinke’s velocity. His average fastball for the the last three seasons has been right around 93.5 mph. Odorizzi just had his age 20 season and his fastball reportedly sits in the 91-93 range. In Greinke’s age 20 season, his fastball in the majors average 89.1 mph. Now, that doesn’t mean that Odorizzi has Greinke’s projection. It just means that you shouldn’t assume that a 20-year-old’s FB velocity will remain constant.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah....i think greinke's velocity jump

was probably about half physical and half mental

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2010 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

it’s Odorizzi’s athleticism, multitude of pitches, command, and similarly smaller build (for a pitcher) that inspire the comparisons. obviously it’s not a straight comparison because Odorizzi’s pitches or command don’t grade out at quite the same level that Zack’s did. but, you can see where they are coming from. most comps aren’t perfect, and this is no different.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Dec 22, 2010 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Whether you believe it or not there are scouts that say it. You asked why people are high on him.

John Manuel at Baseball America rates him over Duffy and Dwyer both while JJ Cooper says he is below them. Either way sounds like there is alot to like.

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 22, 2010 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

You'll remember this day the rest of your life
Whether you believe it or not there are scouts that say it

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 23, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

and while Warden's comment above is how I feel too

it’s true that scouts have consistently praised Odorizzi. It does seem odd that they praise him, then turn around and say his ceiling is a borderline #2.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

i really do see Melville in AA

i am thinking Montgomery, Dwyer, Lamb, Melville, and Smith in AA. Baumann too but he might have to piggyback or throw in long relief until a spot in the rotation opens up (similar to Teaford this past season).

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Dec 22, 2010 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Really? Unless he improves his control during the spring I think they should leave him in High A.

He’s still young and there is time to develop even if he is on a slower pace than the rest he was drafted with.

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 22, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

mostly basing this...

he supposedly dominated in instructs after some more tweaks to his mechanics to speed up his delivery. scott sharp mentioned it to Dutton but i can’t find the article. i think JJ mentioned it on the radio as well.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Dec 23, 2010 12:39 AM EST up reply actions  

It seems like either decision is OK, development-wise

But Moore’s been pretty strict with his “prove it with results at your current level before we move you to the next”. Although maybe instructs could count, as you said.

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Robinson in PCL

The PCL may be a hitter’s league (especially out west), but does anyone know how the Stormchaser’s new park will play? I haven’t seen the dimensions on it.

by limaboy on Dec 22, 2010 5:29 PM EST reply actions  

The fences are about 10-15 ft closer then at the K.

The power alley in right will favor lefties, and down the line in left will favor righties. A HR to center is pretty legit, it will be 402 feet.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 22, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

kinda odd that Teaford started 09 in Wilmington

may have slowed him down a bit to not spend all of 2009 in Springdale, with the possibility of spending more time in 2010 in Omaha and being a more legitimate candidate at the majors in 2011.

There’s just minor quirks where a player in our system repeats a system to start despite appearing to have done pretty good there.

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by BHWick on Dec 23, 2010 12:37 AM EST reply actions  

It’s because Teaford isn’t considered a legit prospect because he doesn’t have good stuff.

by WURoyal on Dec 23, 2010 1:15 AM EST up reply actions  

sad that we have to talk about the minors

just to feel good about the royals it shouldn’t be this way…

by kcchiefs19 on Dec 23, 2010 1:12 AM EST reply actions  

This is the first I've heard of #31 Crawford Simmons

He must be a pretty good prospect to get a $450,000 bonus to sign as a 14th rounder. Definitely a name to keep an eye on. Does anyone else know anything about the kid?

by rouyerd on Dec 23, 2010 8:31 PM EST reply actions  

Simmons

athletic, left handed, has some projection. changeup is what helped him do extremely well in that league last year. needs to gain some giddeup on the fastball which in turn will help the curve as well. you’d think he’s in line for a shot at Low-a next season. not real exciting yet but one to watch for sure.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

by doublestix on Dec 23, 2010 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

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