Royals 2011 Top 60 Prospects; #32-26
The ranks of the Royals prospects swelled this past week. I'm not sure what I can add about the Greinke trade--I went through the same cycle I've heard from many Royals fans: Initially disappointed that the Royals didn't go for more upside and then becoming more optimistic when looking at the whole package. Once you start making a 2013 lineup and it looks very strong with lots of intriguing leftovers. We now have 32 prospects left to cover and so I've got reports on 7 this and there will be 7 more next time. You can find prospects #62-33 here. After the jump I'll give some thoughts on Escobar and Cain and then get to the scouting reports.
By now every Royals fan knows Alcides Escobar was ranked #12 on Baseball America's prospect list last year. And they all also know that he stunk at the plate last year. And most of them also know that his BABIP was really low. If that bounces back then Escobar can be quite useful. Lorenzo Cain--as Dave Cameron pointed out over at Fangraphs--has the opposite problem; his inflated BABIP will probably come back to earth. But he can be a plus fielder who doesn't kill you with the bat.
When I wrapped up the series on what we can expect from a top rated farm system, I noted that the Royals will probably need to find 15-20 WAR to supplement the farm system. I think its reasonable to expect that DM has found 4-5 WAR a year combined in Escobar and Cain. As for Jeffress and Odorizzi, they will have their own reports as we move through the Top 32. On to what is now the Top 32 Prospects for the Royals in 2011.
32. Clint Robinson--1B--DOB:2/16/85
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | SB | CS | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 22 | Idaho Falls | Rk | KCR | 67 | 278 | 253 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 42 | .336 | .388 | .593 | .981 |
| 2008 | 23 | Burlington | A | KCR | 106 | 424 | 379 | 0 | 3 | 37 | 67 | .264 | .333 | .472 | .806 |
| 2009 | 24 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 124 | 483 | 436 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 79 | .298 | .356 | .463 | .819 |
| 2010 | 25 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | KCR | 129 | 548 | 477 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 86 | .335 | .410 | .625 | 1.035 |
| 4 Seasons | 426 | 1733 | 1545 | 10 | 9 | 149 | 274 | .307 | .373 | .537 | .909 | ||||
Clint Robinson is a fun guy to root for. Drafted out of Troy University the big first baseman put up pretty good numbers his first few years but has always been a little old for his league. In 2010, he put up pretty good numbers to start the year at AA but then got on fire in June and never cooled off. I don' have the exact numbers, but from June on it was something like 400/480/750. Robinson ended up winning the Texas League triple crown. The big concern is that he hit 285/347/532 on the road. Those are still good numbers but they aren't the jaw dropping numbers that his home park helped create. Robinson's power is real and he's gotten better defensively. It's hard to see where he fits on the Royals club going forward. He will get to enjoy another hitter friendly league in 2011 when he's at Omaha.
Schaum did an interview with Robinson here.
31. Crawford Simmons--LHP--DOB:6/10/91
The Royals drafted Simmons in the 14th Round of the 2009 draft and gave him an above slot signing bonus ($450,000). He debuted in 2010 at short-season Burlington where he posted a 3.71 FIP while averaging 8.2/k and 2.1 bb per 9ip. He has a traditional fastball/curve/change arsenal. The stuff isn't overwhelming but he commands it well. The question will be how more experienced hitters handle his stuff. He should get to challenge Midwest League hitters at Kane County in 2011.
30. Jeff Bianchi--SS--DOB:10/5/86
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | SB | CS | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 18 | Royals | Rk | KCR | 28 | 122 | 98 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 22 | .408 | .484 | .745 | 1.229 |
| 2006 | 19 | Royals | Rk | KCR | 12 | 54 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | .429 | .537 | .667 | 1.204 |
| 2007 | 20 | Burlington | A | KCR | 99 | 403 | 368 | 15 | 4 | 25 | 72 | .247 | .296 | .315 | .611 |
| 2008 | 21 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 104 | 431 | 396 | 13 | 4 | 20 | 95 | .255 | .290 | .442 | .732 |
| 2009 | 22 | 2 Teams | AA-A+ | KCR | 128 | 542 | 490 | 22 | 6 | 39 | 105 | .308 | .358 | .435 | .792 |
| 2009 | 22 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 60 | 245 | 220 | 12 | 2 | 20 | 47 | .300 | .360 | .427 | .787 |
| 2009 | 22 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | KCR | 68 | 297 | 270 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 58 | .315 | .356 | .441 | .797 |
| 5 Seasons | 371 | 1552 | 1394 | 56 | 17 | 109 | 297 | .288 | .339 | .434 | .773 | ||||
Somewhere out there is an alternate universe where Jeff Bianchi was healthy for 2010, put up decent numbers at Omaha and what DM looked for in the Zack Greinke trade is very different. But Bianchi did have TJ surgery and miss the 2010 season. As far as I know, he should be back in 2011. Bianchi has a good bat for a SS and the defense chops to stay at SS. The question has always been health--he's had a lot of injuries and his arm needs to come back for him to stay at SS. He should get a chance at Omaha to prove he is healthy. With the addition of Escobar though, his future is somewhat cloudy with the organization.
29. Noel Arguelles--LHP--DOB:1/12/90
The Royals signed Cuban defector Noel Arguelles last offseason to a $7 million contract. 2010 was a disaster for the pitcher and he didn't throw a single pitch in a pro game. He faced injury and there whispers about his attitude. Arguelles had surgery on his shoulder--it wasn't major surgery and he is expected to be ready to pitch in spring training. When healthy he has an above average fastball with a curve and change that can be above average pitches. As with many young pitchers, he needs better command and control of both. I'm guessing he will be at Wilmington in 2011. He's got a lot of talent and could be in the Top 10 next year if he can prove he's healthy and motivated.
28, Buddy Baumann--LHP--DOB:12/9/87
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 21 | Burlington | Rk | KCR | 1.80 | 3 | 0 | 5.0 | 0.800 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| 2010 | 22 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 2.24 | 31 | 14 | 100.1 | 1.116 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 10.1 | 3.14 |
| 2 Seasons | 2.22 | 34 | 14 | 105.1 | 1.101 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 3.1 | 10.1 | 3.28 | ||||
A personal favorite of mine, the Royals took Baumann in the 7th Round of the 2009 draft out of Missouri State--where he had had an extremely successful junior year. He has a fastball, slider, change-up arsenal and he knows how to use it and commands it well. He's only 5' 10" so there will be questions about his durability as a starter. As you can see, he dominated at Wilmington. He should be in the running to be on an extremely talented Northwest Arkansas pitching staff. It will be very interesting to see how he responds to moving to such a hitting friendly environment--Baumann is a sleeper to keep an eye on.
Schaum did another excellent interview with Baumann here.
27. Tyler Sample--RHP--DOB:6/27/89
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 19 | Royals | Rk | KCR | 9.00 | 10 | 8 | 27.0 | 2.185 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 1.34 |
| 2009 | 20 | 2 Teams | Rk | KCR | 3.13 | 14 | 11 | 54.2 | 1.152 | 6.8 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 2.23 |
| 2009 | 20 | Royals | Rk | KCR | 6.75 | 2 | 2 | 4.0 | 2.250 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 11.2 | 2.50 |
| 2009 | 20 | Burlington | Rk | KCR | 2.84 | 12 | 9 | 50.2 | 1.066 | 6.0 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 2.20 |
| 2010 | 21 | Burlington | A | KCR | 4.69 | 26 | 26 | 121.0 | 1.653 | 7.8 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 1.21 |
| 3 Seasons | 4.84 | 50 | 45 | 202.2 | 1.589 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 1.39 | ||||
The Royals took Sample in the 3rd Round of the 2008 draft out of HS in the Denver area. He's a big righthander who a very good fastball that sits in the low 90s with downward movement. He has a curve that has potential but his change-up has been very inconsistent. It looked like Sample was making progress in 2009 as his control took a step forward. But 2010 was a disaster. His control was non-existent. Sample has a ton of potential but needs to put it together. He could also be moved to the bullpen to see if that helps. I'm not sure where he goes for 2011--he could go back to the Midwest League or they could ahead and let him go to Wilmington and see if he benefits from an extremely pitching friendly environment.
26. Everett Teaford--LHP--DOB:5/15/84
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 22 | Idaho Falls | Rk | KCR | 3.71 | 15 | 12 | 63.0 | 1.175 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 2.55 |
| 2007 | 23 | Burlington | A | KCR | 4.68 | 27 | 21 | 134.2 | 1.359 | 9.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 5.6 | 2.33 |
| 2008 | 24 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 3.80 | 28 | 23 | 144.1 | 1.254 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 2.52 |
| 2009 | 25 | 2 Teams | AA-A+ | KCR | 3.91 | 27 | 27 | 145.0 | 1.262 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 1.98 |
| 2009 | 25 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 2.39 | 11 | 11 | 64.0 | 0.984 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 6.9 | 4.08 |
| 2009 | 25 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | KCR | 5.11 | 16 | 16 | 81.0 | 1.481 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 1.24 |
| 2010 | 26 | 2 Teams | AA-AAA | KCR | 3.82 | 28 | 13 | 103.2 | 1.273 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 10.2 | 3.55 |
| 2010 | 26 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | KCR | 3.36 | 27 | 12 | 99.0 | 1.242 | 8.3 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 10.3 | 3.53 |
| 2010 | 26 | Omaha | AAA | KCR | 13.50 | 1 | 1 | 4.2 | 1.929 | 15.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 7.7 | 4.00 |
| 5 Seasons | 4.02 | 125 | 96 | 590.2 | 1.275 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 2.54 | ||||
The Royals took Teaford in the 12th Round way back in the 2006 draft. He had pitched OK but then something clicked last year. After getting pounded at AA in 2009, Teaford was great in 2010--getting better as the year went on. Our own 306008 chronicled Teaford here. Teaford was showing an above average fastball/curve with a good change to go with it. I'm not exactly sure what we have here but there is the possibility Teaford has figured it out and is a late bloomer. He'll be 27 in 2011 and only has 4+ innings at AAA but he may get a shot at Royals #5 starter in Spring Training. His development only adds to the embarrassment of riches the Royals have pitching from the left side.
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That is a crazy good 26-32 prospect list.
Three guys on the 40 man, a triple crown winner, a possible 5th starter this year and a a possible big leauge shotstop who can now be the utility infielder, and then add 4 possible top of the order rotation guys.
Go Royals!
Bianchi
I’ve always liked him, and it would be nice if he ended up our utility player with Escobar working out.
A bolder scenario:
Bianchi reestablishes his health and continues his hitting, to the point where the Royals are confident to trade Escobar in a couple of years, after he has established himself as better than he was in 2010. Escobar could bring a hell of a haul; this is the way you can continue to have a dominant farm system, even if the Royals are forced to start drafting in the lower third by 2013 or so.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
That’s a better outcome, actually. Escobar is arb eligible in 2013.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Dec 22, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Looking for Bianchi to be the comeback player on Royals system for 2011
I see him competing for 2B starting job in 2012 or a utility position.
Our #32 prospect is probably sneaking into the top 10 in some other systems...
..ridiculous.
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Dec 22, 2010 12:23 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Did not see this comment before I made mine
I wish I could rec more than once!!!!
he's not that different than our #3 prospect from a few years ago....
justin huber
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
Clint is an interesting prospect and possibly underrated
Is there any reason besides age, pedigree, and defense why he’s not compared more favorably to say Hosmer? (Defense is obviously a big deal, but less so since we’re talking about 1B vs DH here.)
Is he supposed to have a hole in his swing or slow bat speed? I mean, he’s got the home/road split thing going on, but is there any other reason to assume he can’t be a productive major league hitter?
age pedigree and defense are pretty important issues when judging a prospect
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by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Assuming he's a DH only - which I think is the case
Defense isn’t really a factor. I mean, it’s not like we’re valuing a free agent. He’s at minimum cost, and as primarily a DH, we’re just looking at offense for all intents and purposes. Yes, that makes him less of a prospect than someone who’s going to hit and be a star defensively, but it certainly doesn’t mean he can’t be a high prospect.
Age is a factor, but it’s not like he’s about to hit 30. As a DH, no reason he can’t have multiple years as a productive hitter.
Pedigree – well not much to say here. Some of the best players were high prospects others weren’t. I’m sure plenty of 25th rounders have become all-stars.
he's also a guy
who last year at 24 was not good in AA…..if he is awesome again this year….he’ll be someone to talk about. right now, he’s a 4th 1b/DH that you stash at AAA
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by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
True
He could be the next Calving Pickering/Brandon Berger. A year at AAA should shed some light on whether or not the switch has been flipped for him.
The age thing
The issues is not that he’s almost 30, its that his production has to be viewed a little more critically because he’s been older than his competition at almost every level. Older guys tend to do better than younger guys. Now that he’s performed well at the upper levels, where you have 30 year olds in some cases, we can start to say “maybe he’s for real after all.” But we’ll see.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If he's a DH
the bar is set pretty high for the kind of production he would need to be an asset. I’m rooting for the guy—but it’s hard to read his performance last year and a year in the PCL could also cloud his true talent.
Makes sense
A great year in Omaha will help his prospect status no doubt, but then he’ll also be 26.
I guess I don’t mind the DH thing so much because the Royals have been so underwhelming at the position for so long. As a Royal’s DH prospect an 800 OPS guy in the majors would seem like an all-star… Granted, between Kila, Butler, and Betemit, it’s looking considerably better for next year.
For some reason, I think of Banny when I think of Teaford
When there isn’t much in common
I'd take a Brian Bannister career from a #26 prospect
Killing time until time kills me
by EspeciallyK on Dec 22, 2010 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
As a cheap cost controlled #5
That’s not bad to have
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Dec 22, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Kind of hoping he is our #5 this year
Although I don’t think we need a #5 for a few weeks
Might want him at #4
After a few weeks of SOS
by Tito42 on Dec 22, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Is this assuming Mazzaro is our (sigh) #3?
Because Teaford is rapidly climbing now that I think about it
Clint is interesting. Statistically, he really reminds me of Ryan Shealy, who was regarded much higher. I’ll be rooting for him in AAA this year for sure!
by WURoyal on Dec 22, 2010 12:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions
thats not fun
i hate jeff city and central missouri in general
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by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
good stuff, as usual - my two cents:
Bianchi – I don’t see him making the top 10 in this system simply b/c of his injury history (I know different people have differing opinions on whether injuries should factor into a prospect’s rating – I think they should, at least to an extent).
Sample – seems like he’ll start in the Midwest League again since the org doesn’t like to move guys up until they’ve shown progress.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 12:58 PM EST reply actions
I am beginning to look forward to the Wilmington rotation
if Arguelles is part of the mix – which I doubt he will.
1. Odorizzi – He will be the ace of the staff. I think he will be the best player of the trade.
2. Melville – don’t see him breaking the Naturals potential rotation. He can stand to repeat after the awful 2010
3. Marks – Coming from the A’s. College LH
4. Sample
5. Arguelles
That is a rotation with lots of potential. It doesn’t include Pimental who came in Podsednik trade, Hayenga, or any other starter from Burlington last year.
what makes you so high on Odorizzi?
Just curious.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Goldstein says he's our #8 prospect and 5th best pitching prospect,
that he’d be top 3 overall in most other systems, and his upside is a borderline #2 starter.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12605
Sounds exciting, but let’s hope that comes true and Escobar and Cain are better than that.
I have heard that, too, and I don't believe it
starting with mid-90s fastball vs low-90s fastball. Zack is an established #1, Odo has a #2 ceiling and has yet to hit AA. Odo’s K and BB rates have been good, I suppose, but nothing special.
Do we just call any pitcher with a low-90s fastball and #2 ceiling “Greinke-lite”?
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 22, 2010 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
greinke didnt develop that mid 90s stuff until 2007 or so
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by billybeingbilly on Dec 22, 2010 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
really? after they brought him back (convinced him to come back, I mean)?
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
It’s pretty common for young pitchers with a projectable body to add strength and thus velocity through their late teens and early 20’s. In part, that’s what happened to Greinke. But also he said that his stint in the bullpen in 2007 taught him to trust his fastball and throw it hard and not just try to pinpoint it. I think that’s a big reason why you saw his fastball jump from an average of 92-93 to 93-94.
But I think we shouldn’t overestimate Greinke’s velocity. His average fastball for the the last three seasons has been right around 93.5 mph. Odorizzi just had his age 20 season and his fastball reportedly sits in the 91-93 range. In Greinke’s age 20 season, his fastball in the majors average 89.1 mph. Now, that doesn’t mean that Odorizzi has Greinke’s projection. It just means that you shouldn’t assume that a 20-year-old’s FB velocity will remain constant.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Dec 23, 2010 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
yeah....i think greinke's velocity jump
was probably about half physical and half mental
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Dec 23, 2010 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
it’s Odorizzi’s athleticism, multitude of pitches, command, and similarly smaller build (for a pitcher) that inspire the comparisons. obviously it’s not a straight comparison because Odorizzi’s pitches or command don’t grade out at quite the same level that Zack’s did. but, you can see where they are coming from. most comps aren’t perfect, and this is no different.
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Whether you believe it or not there are scouts that say it. You asked why people are high on him.
John Manuel at Baseball America rates him over Duffy and Dwyer both while JJ Cooper says he is below them. Either way sounds like there is alot to like.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
You'll remember this day the rest of your life
Whether you believe it or not there are scouts that say it
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
by Warden11 on Dec 23, 2010 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
and while Warden's comment above is how I feel too
it’s true that scouts have consistently praised Odorizzi. It does seem odd that they praise him, then turn around and say his ceiling is a borderline #2.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
i really do see Melville in AA
i am thinking Montgomery, Dwyer, Lamb, Melville, and Smith in AA. Baumann too but he might have to piggyback or throw in long relief until a spot in the rotation opens up (similar to Teaford this past season).
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Really? Unless he improves his control during the spring I think they should leave him in High A.
He’s still young and there is time to develop even if he is on a slower pace than the rest he was drafted with.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
mostly basing this...
he supposedly dominated in instructs after some more tweaks to his mechanics to speed up his delivery. scott sharp mentioned it to Dutton but i can’t find the article. i think JJ mentioned it on the radio as well.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
It seems like either decision is OK, development-wise
But Moore’s been pretty strict with his “prove it with results at your current level before we move you to the next”. Although maybe instructs could count, as you said.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 23, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Robinson in PCL
The PCL may be a hitter’s league (especially out west), but does anyone know how the Stormchaser’s new park will play? I haven’t seen the dimensions on it.
The fences are about 10-15 ft closer then at the K.
The power alley in right will favor lefties, and down the line in left will favor righties. A HR to center is pretty legit, it will be 402 feet.
Go Royals!
kinda odd that Teaford started 09 in Wilmington
may have slowed him down a bit to not spend all of 2009 in Springdale, with the possibility of spending more time in 2010 in Omaha and being a more legitimate candidate at the majors in 2011.
There’s just minor quirks where a player in our system repeats a system to start despite appearing to have done pretty good there.
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sad that we have to talk about the minors
just to feel good about the royals it shouldn’t be this way…
This is the first I've heard of #31 Crawford Simmons
He must be a pretty good prospect to get a $450,000 bonus to sign as a 14th rounder. Definitely a name to keep an eye on. Does anyone else know anything about the kid?
Simmons
athletic, left handed, has some projection. changeup is what helped him do extremely well in that league last year. needs to gain some giddeup on the fastball which in turn will help the curve as well. you’d think he’s in line for a shot at Low-a next season. not real exciting yet but one to watch for sure.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix

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