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Around SBN: Yankees Deny Rumors That Team Is For Sale

Royals Top 60 Prospects #26-20




The Royals Top 30 just got a little deeper--kind of.  I realized I had neglected to put Kevin Chapman on the list.  #26 seemed just right for him, so everyone below him gets bumped down a slot.  That also means I'll cover 7 prospects in this installment and again next time.  We now start getting to prospects who could easily be on other teams' Top 10 list.  It's become a cliche but this is a really good group of prospects--we will probably be spoiled in a few years when this list isn't as good.

Star-divide

33. Clint Robinson

32. Crawford Simmons

31. Jeff BIanchi

30. Noel Arguelles

29. Buddy Baumann

28. Tyler Sample

27. Everett Teaford

26. Kevin Chapman--LHP--DOB:2/19/88

The Royals drafted Chapman in the 4th Round of the 2010 draft out of the U. of Florida as a senior.  He had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore in college.  He pitched a little as a junior but finally bounced back as a senior, pitching well and staying healthy all year.  Chapman has a mid 90s fastball with good movement and also has a good slider.  The Royals sent him to Wilmington after being drafted and he pitched pretty well in the 18 innings he got there (despite a 5.50 ERA).  He struck out 20 while walking 8.  He'll start 2011 either at A+ or AA.  He's got the stuff to be a valuable late inning reliever that can get lefties and righties out.

25. Paulo Orlando--CF--DOB:11/1/85

Year Age Tm Lev Aff G PA AB SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 20 Kannapolis A CHW 116 503 470 29 9 18 143 .262 .305 .391 .696
2007 21 Winston-Salem A+ CHW 102 425 391 20 7 19 84 .253 .294 .376 .670
2008 22 2 Teams A+ CHW,KCR 130 571 522 29 13 30 116 .261 .310 .421 .732
2008 22 Winston-Salem A+ CHW 112 489 451 28 9 22 97 .262 .308 .408 .716
2008 22 Wilmington A+ KCR 18 82 71 1 4 8 19 .254 .325 .507 .832
2009 23 Wilmington A+ KCR 101 391 356 20 5 15 80 .261 .303 .351 .655
2010 24 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 121 469 419 25 10 24 62 .305 .366 .480 .846
5 Seasons 570 2359 2158 123 44 106 485 .268 .316 .406 .723
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2010.

 

The Royals got Orlando from the White Sox for Horacio Ramirez in 2008.   He is a terrific athlete but being from Brazil which is not a baseball hotbed, he's always been considered a little raw.  He has developed slowly but his 2010 numbers were encouraging (especially after a tough 2009).  He started off slowly in April but hit well the rest of the season.  Orlando upped his walk rate, dropped his K rate and increased his power.  It should be noted his OPS on the road was 724 while it was 960 at home (he hit 10 of his 13 HR at home).  Orlando is supposed to be a very good defensive CF.  He was left unprotected for the Rule V draft and thankfully was not taken.  He should get playing time at Omaha in 2011 but he will have to fight for time in CF with Jarrod Dyson and maybe Lorenzo Cain/Derrick Robinson.  He could be a nice 4th OF in the future.

24. Will Smith--LHP--DOB:7/10/89

Year Age Tm Lev Aff ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 18 Orem Rk LAA 3.08 16 14 73.0 1.082 9.0 0.7 0.7 9.4 12.67
2009 19 Cedar Rapids A LAA 3.76 20 19 115.0 1.157 8.5 0.9 1.9 7.4 3.96
2010 20 4 Teams AAA-A+-AA KCR,LAA 4.62 27 27 163.2 1.393 10.0 1.0 2.5 7.1 2.83
2010 20 Wilmington A+ KCR 2.80 8 8 54.2 0.951 7.9 1.0 0.7 8.4 12.75
2010 20 Rancho Cucamonga A+ LAA 4.58 6 6 37.1 1.312 8.7 1.0 3.1 7.5 2.38
2010 20 Arkansas AA LAA 7.23 4 4 18.2 2.250 15.9 1.4 4.3 3.9 0.89
2010 20 Salt Lake AAA LAA 5.60 9 9 53.0 1.604 11.0 1.0 3.4 6.8 2.00
3 Seasons 4.02 63 60 351.2 1.251 9.3 0.9 1.9 7.7 3.96
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2010.

 

If you want to study how to not handle a pitching prospect, look at what the Angels did to Will Smith last year.  Having all of 20 starts at Low-A, they gave him 37 IP at A+ -and while he wasn't very successful at A+, they moved him all the way to AAA where he (predictably) struggled.  They dropped him down to AA before he was traded to the Royals in the Callaspo deal.  He pitched really well at Wilmington--upping his K rate, dropping his BB rate and getting more ground balls.  Smith doesn't have a big ceiling.  His fastball is average and so is his curveball.  His changeup is inconsistent but can also be a decent pitch.  But lefties with 3 average pitches who can get groundballs have had long careers in the majors.  He could get a little more time at A+ to start 2011.

23: Jason Adam--RHP--DOB:8/4/91

The Royals took Blue Valley Northwest righty Jason Adam with their 5th Round pick of the 2010 draft.  The Royals gave him well above slot to sign ($800,000).  He's a big right-hander known for a good fastball. The Royals didn't have Adam get in a few innings in the Arizona Summer League but he impressed in Instructional League during October.  Both Keith Law and Baseball America wrote up an impressive outing where his fastball sat around 93-95 and touched 97.  He also had an impressive curveball.  He also throws a changeup that I'm sure he needs to be more consistent with because almost all HS pitchers need to be more consistent with their change.  Law also noted that his command was excellent and that he looked like he should have been a 1st Round pick.  It's probable that Law and BA saw Adam on a good day.  But if shows that the kid has a good ceiling.  If the Royals are feeling good about his progress, Adam could start 2011 at Kane County.

22. Louis Coleman--RHP--DOB:4/4/86

Year Age Tm Lev Aff ERA G GS IP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2009 23 2 Teams A+-A KCR 1.66 14 0 21.2 0.646 4.2 0.0 1.7 9.1 5.50
2009 23 Burlington A KCR 2.45 4 0 7.1 0.409 2.5 0.0 1.2 7.4 6.00
2009 23 Wilmington A+ KCR 1.26 10 0 14.1 0.767 5.0 0.0 1.9 10.0 5.33
2010 24 2 Teams AA-AAA KCR 2.15 42 1 92.0 0.946 6.1 0.7 2.4 10.1 4.12
2010 24 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 2.09 21 1 51.2 0.871 5.4 0.9 2.4 9.6 3.93
2010 24 Omaha AAA KCR 2.23 21 0 40.1 1.041 6.9 0.4 2.5 10.7 4.36
2 Seasons 2.06 56 1 113.2 0.889 5.7 0.6 2.3 9.9 4.31
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2010.

The Royals took Coleman in the 5th Round of the 2009 draft.  He was a Senior pick from LSU.  He had done both starting and relieving in college but the Royals have used him as a reliever.  He throws a good fastball/slider combination.  His delivery is very low from the right side making him particularly difficult on RH batters.  He gives up a lot of fly balls, but so far the HR hasn't hurt him too bad.  I find it interesting that he had 42 relief appearance and 92 IP--over 2 innings an outing which is pretty unheard of for a reliever.  He'll turn 25 just as the season starts and I think he will compete for a major league job in Spring Training.  It will be interesting to see how the Royals use him at the big league level--with a starting staff that could be tough to watch at times, a versatile and effective reliever who can come in and give 2 or 3 solid innings could be really valuable.

21. Derrick Robinson--CF--DOB:9/28/87

Year Age Tm Lev Aff G PA AB SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 18 Royals Rk KCR 54 208 176 20 14 24 55 .233 .335 .318 .653
2007 19 2 Teams A-A+ KCR 105 463 420 35 7 33 100 .248 .303 .305 .608
2007 19 Burlington A KCR 102 449 407 34 7 32 100 .243 .299 .300 .599
2007 19 Wilmington A+ KCR 3 14 13 1 0 1 0 .385 .429 .462 .890
2008 20 Wilmington A+ KCR 124 556 497 62 17 51 97 .245 .316 .322 .638
2009 21 Wilmington A+ KCR 128 571 522 69 23 35 90 .239 .290 .324 .614
2010 22 Northwest Arkansas AA KCR 127 570 511 50 17 45 86 .286 .345 .380 .725
5 Seasons 538 2368 2126 236 78 188 428 .253 .316 .333 .649

Generated 12/25/2010.

Derrick Robinson closed out 2009 on a tear, hitting and hitting with some power.  He then opened 2010 with an OPS near 900 for the month of April.  But the rest of the season was spent with OPS a little south of 700.  He upped his walk rate a little bit.  He's still a guy who can fly--stealing bases and covering ground in the OF.  It's hard to imagine him being a starting CF for a good team but he could be a useful 4th or 5th outfielder.  He might have to go back to Northwest Arkansas in 2011.  There may not be room for him at Omaha as the Royals have cornered the market on mediocre CF prospects.


20 Salvador Perez--C--DOB:5/10/90
Year Age Tm Lev Aff G PA AB SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2007 17 Royals Rk KCR 30 99 86 1 1 5 10 .244 .320 .279 .599
2008 18 2 Teams Rk KCR 25 95 83 0 1 7 10 .361 .409 .482 .891
2008 18 Idaho Falls Rk KCR 12 46 43 0 1 2 5 .395 .413 .581 .994
2008 18 Burlington Rk KCR 13 49 40 0 0 5 5 .325 .404 .375 .779
2009 19 2 Teams Rk-A KCR 95 396 360 0 2 25 40 .267 .313 .356 .669
2009 19 Idaho Falls Rk KCR 59 259 233 0 1 19 25 .309 .357 .421 .777
2009 19 Burlington A KCR 36 137 127 0 1 6 15 .189 .230 .236 .466
2010 20 Wilmington A+ KCR 99 396 365 1 1 18 38 .290 .322 .411 .732
4 Seasons 249 986 894 2 5 55 98 .283 .326 .383 .709
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2010.

How many catchers last year finished with a wRC+ over 90 (over 400 abs)and with positive UZR (I realize catching defensive stats are far from perfect)?  The answer: 5.  That is why Salvador Perez is a sure fired major league player--at least as sure as you can be for a 20 year old prospect.  His defense is considered very good and his bat was surprisingly good last year.  For a 20 year old to have a 733 OPS at Wilmington and play the toughest defensive position is quite an accomplishment.  Perez was streaky at the plate last year.  He was putrid at the plate in June and July, good in May and great in August.  He doesn't walk much but he also doesn't strike out much.  Perez's development will make the moving of Wil Myers to RF much more palatable.  Perez looks like the perfect fit for the 2013 Royals--a very good defensive catcher who won't kill you batting 7th or 8th in the lineup.  He will either go back to Wilmington in 2011 or get bumped up to AA. 

Comment 41 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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I agree with this

I think Coleman is a good bet to contribute this year, whereas I doubt D-Rob or Orlando get much more than a handful of MLB PAs in their careers, and even their upside isn’t that great – what, best case we have Wily Taveras?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Dec 27, 2010 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

D-Rob has a (small--but not insignificant) chance to be Michael Bourn

their age 22 AA seasons are very similar:

Bourn—BB=10% K=20% ISP=.096 wOBA=.315
D-Rob—BB=8% K=15% ISP=.094 wOBA=.320

If people want to bump Coleman over Robinson, I’m not going to argue too much but I still like Robinson right where he is.

by nwroyal on Dec 27, 2010 2:06 PM EST up reply actions  

it seems that all catchers (except for maybe Mauer and Kendall)

are extremely streaky hitters.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Dec 27, 2010 2:10 PM EST reply actions  

Kendall is a streaky hitter....

….it’s just been 5 or 6 years since his last streak.

by kcemigre on Dec 27, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree

Kendall is extremely consistent – consistently crappy as a hitter

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Dec 27, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't realize Coleman had such a good year

I am really excited about him… Coleman and Perez. Everyone else here would only be top-10 in a weak system. How similar are Odorizzi and Adam (aside from Odorizzi having a season under his belt)? It’s pretty cool, though, that we’re only at 26-20 and already there are guys that would crack a lot of Top-10s. Good system, duh.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Dec 27, 2010 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

Salvador Perez

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that this guy will be a top 10 by the end of next year. MLB ready defensively now gets no credit. Bat is behind but not bad. Hit .280 in the deathbox that is Delaware. NW he’ll hit .295-.305 with 20 HRs.

by 306008 on Dec 27, 2010 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

Hmmmm....
a very good defensive catcher who won’t kill you batting 7th or 8th in the lineup.

But how would he look batting second?

by BrRoyal on Dec 27, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Like #2, Probably

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Dec 27, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

which is to say, just as good as Kendall

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 28, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Orlando and Parraz

Paulo Orlando is the new Jordan Parraz…when you see both play live you will know what I mean…neither will ever play in the big leagues and at this time next year Orlando will be out of the organization…..my opinion but his solid 2010 will be forgotten by June

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Dec 27, 2010 2:58 PM EST reply actions  

I think Greg's probably right

There’s a reason he was left unprotected – and didn’t get taken – in the Rule V. Speedy OFs do get taken if they have MLB potential and aren’t extremely young (think Endy Chavez).

The fact that Orlando didn’t get taken is pretty damning I think. Hopefully I’m wrong and he puts it all together this year – I’m rooting for the guy.

by jsolo on Dec 27, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

He is the new Parraz like Escobar is the new TPJ.

Parraz was a ok corner outfielder, Orlando is a plus centerfield outfielder, so they are very far apart defensively. If Orlando can hit as well as Parraz was hitting, he is a starting center fielder. If his power numbers continue to progress, he will be a 4 WAR type player.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Dec 27, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

4 WAR?

What makes you think he’s going to get anywhere near that?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Dec 28, 2010 7:36 AM EST up reply actions  

How does our 20-33 compare to some teams 1-13?

I know we lack a coulple big time players in there but i seriously think it could compete to some teams 1-13.

by vic1124 on Dec 27, 2010 3:37 PM EST reply actions  

In all honesty, I think the Royals 11-20 might be at the level of some of the worst MLB organizations’ 1-10, but that’s about it.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Callis said they'd be in the middle somewhere

in the 8-15 range and that was before they added Ordozzi and Jeffress. BA is much much higher on Adam though they even mentioned his name on the cusp of a possible Top 100 in their latest podcast. I think he’ll be close to the Top 15 in Royals BA handbook and Callis is very very high on Cuthbert and he’ll probably rank 11th in the Handbook prior to Ordozzi and Jeffress addition.

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Dec 27, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the really interesting study...

would be to see how the Royals’ 11-30 match up with other teams’ 1-20. So many of these 20-30 guys would fit in well among most teams’ 10-20. There’s upside (Cuthbert, Arguelles, Adam, Sample), there’re some low-upside guys who are good bets to at least make a ML roster but who may be AAAA-types (Coleman, Will Smith, Teaford, Clint Robinson, D-Robinson, Parraz) and there are guys who are a nice combination of upside and relatively high floors (Bianchi, Perez, Baumann, Chapman). And if you use BP’s 11-20, there’s enough upside there that would fit well on a lot of teams’ 1-20 lists: Crow, Eibner, Yambati, Ventura, etc.

I’d love to see a ranking of the Royals’ 11-30 vs. all other teams’ 1-20. My guess is that the Royals would squeak into the top half. Based on BP’s comments, the Royals would have enough depth in their 11-30 to have 8 or 9 three-star prospects, and based on Sickels’ letter grades, the Royals get to 26 without dipping below C+. Obviously by subtracting the 10 best prospects, the system would lack the type of high-end talent that would allow it to earn a top-ten ranking, but the high quality of the depth might keep it from slipping behind systems with 2-3 four/five star guys and only 2-3 three star guys.

It’s only an exercise, but it’s a valuable one. In the same way that it’s useful to have as many four/five star guys as possible, because they often don’t pan out and/or disappoint, it’s equally valuable to have a ton of three star guys, because those guys may turn into very valuable players. This is especially true with pitchers. (Dayton) Moore’s law is that the best way to find a great starter is to have 3 or 4 great prospects. But another way to find a great starter is to have 10 or 12 very good prospects. If nothing else, the Royals seem to understand this. They’ve set up the organization such that they can reasonably expect to produce two or maybe even three great (4-win or better) starters along with two or three above-average starters. Yes it’s exciting that the Royals have Duffy, Montgomery, Dwyer and Lamb, but it’s equally exciting that buttressing those guys are Teaford, Crow, Adam, Sample, Melville, Keating, Chapman, Baumann, Smith, Yambati, Ventura, Simmons, Jeffress and Odirizzi, because it’s very likely that at least one of the latter group will end up becoming a better major leaguer than three of the big four.

by billexgordler on Dec 28, 2010 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Ok ignore my statement guys

I got carried away even though i really like the pitching here.

by vic1124 on Dec 27, 2010 4:35 PM EST reply actions  

There's some legitimate depth to KC's farm system

Certain players between 11-20 would clearly be in many team’s top 10. And that’s obviously a great sign. Some of these guys (like Eibner or Cuthbert) are top 5 potentials in weaker orgs… and that’s not even mentioning some of the pitching prospects. In a year or two, a guy like Jason Adam could be KC’s or any other team’s number 1 prospect.

by jsolo on Dec 27, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Argullles too.

He has great potential even though its hard to bring him up with his injury and all that.

I am big Will Smith and Crawford Simmons fans even though i think their potentials are good #3’s.

Sample and Bauman could be studs in the bullpen with still the chance of being decent starters IMO.

Coleman,Teaford, and Chapman will most likely contribute to the major league club this year.

by vic1124 on Dec 27, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d be interested in hearing what some of the guys from B.A. think about where KC’s 11-20 would rank among MLB minor league systems. I think it beats Milwaukee’s system off the top of my head. Maybe others as well.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Dec 27, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

At the very least

I would think KC’s 8-18 would be rated higher than a handful of other clubs’ 1-10.

by jsolo on Dec 27, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

probably houston and the chicago sox as well....beyond that there may be a couple

more teams that i cant think of…but the most impressive think is that if you cut off the top 5 guys, all b+/A- or higher and the minor league system is still a top half system

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I read something--maybe from Ben Badler

that if you take away the Royals Top 5 (Moose/Hoz/Myers/Monty/Lamb), the Royals are still a top 10 system—not exactly the question you asked but it gives some perspective.

by nwroyal on Dec 27, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

PS

somebody at BA said that the #1 prospect in Milwaukee’s system right now would rank around #18 in our system

by nwroyal on Dec 27, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Somewhat related

Like Melvin, I hope DM is capable of trading off as much of the farm system as necessary if KC actually has a window in which they have a legit shot at the post season.

It’s true Milwaukee decimated their farm system (starting with the Sabathia trade) but what’s the point of an excellent and deep farm if you don’t cash in on it at some point – particularly after some of your best prospects become useful major leaguers.

by jsolo on Dec 27, 2010 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

it'll be bad if they dont come particularly close to winning....

the sabathia trade worked out fine b/c laporta ended up sucking for the most part, but the trades this year could kill them if they dont have everything go right this season.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Dec 27, 2010 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

That sounds about like what Goldstein said in the last Baseball Prospectus podcast.

Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity

by Old Man Duggan on Dec 27, 2010 7:24 PM EST up reply actions  

PPS

of course, our #1 starter would rank around #5 on their team

by nwroyal on Dec 27, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

New member here...

I really enjoy these ratings, thanks for doing them…

by liquorstoreclerk on Dec 27, 2010 9:41 PM EST reply actions  

welcome to the fray

I enjoy them too

The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Dec 28, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks again for this entertaining series

I hate to be “that guy” – but I wanted to put in a word on Coleman. I think he is a bit underrated here. I understand that a prospect profiling as a reliever only certainly limits his potential – but this is a guy who was dominate in college, and really, has been dominant at every level of the minors.

If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, that would be a real head-scratcher, IMHO. This is his age 25 season coming up, he is a reliever, so I’m not really concerned with player control beyond the given 6 years like I would be with a starter or a position player. I am very interested in getting him started now, so the Royals can determine his future role. Can he be a dominant setup man, or is his ceiling more of a dominant 7th inning guy, or is he best utilized as a stud long reliever? If I would the Royals, I’d spend 2011 finding out, by letting Coleman try his hand at several roles.

Sorry for going on and on about this guy – I just see a very useful player here. He may not be a “core guy” who produces 2,3, or 4 WAR per year – but I firmly believe he will play a significant role on winning Royals teams in the future.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Dec 30, 2010 6:06 PM EST reply actions  

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