Preseason All-AL Central

But he’s very overrated. I’ve always thought Crawford and Ellsbury were somewhat comparable.
OFFENSE
Both of their BB rates are below average at 7.6 and 7.1%, respectively. However, Crawford K’s about 5% more than Ellsbury. His speed makes up for this and keeps his BABIP high (.346 last year) but his Spd has decreased every year for five years, if the trend continues, we could see a sharp drop in his BABIP, and his OBP. Ellsbury’s data in this area is a little more stable, but with only two full major league seasons no true trend can be determined. As it stands, his Spd was 8.1 to Crawford’s 7.7 last season, though I think that more important is whether Ellsbury stabilizes, or even gains speed as Crawford regresses. OBP is where things get a lot more interesting. Both players AVG’s were within .001, while Crawford had a .364 OBP to Ellsbury’s .355. Again, though, the trends should be noted. Crawford’s OBP rose to a career high last year, at 27, so he should have 2-3 seasons left at peak performance until he begins his decline, likely accelerated by his loss of speed. Again, Ellsbury has just two major league seasons, so a trend would be difficult, but his BB% is on the rise, and so his is BABIP (.332 last year, up from .314 his rookie season). I wouldn’t expect to dramatic a rise in either next year, but their still should be a noted increase to at least Crawford’s level. Power is Crawford’s domain, and Ellsbury likely will never challenge him. He may improve from a very weak .114 ISO over his first two seasons, but most of his value will come from his OBP and his speed. At the end of the day though, Crawford has averaged a .154 ISO over the past 6 seasons, and that should hold stable. So Crawford’s OBP skills should see slight decline over the next few seasons unless he stabilizes his speed, while his power will remain about where it is. Ellsbury has every reason to improve on an already strong campaign, and should get on base at a higher clip, with maybe a little increase in power. So with a little regression from Crawford, and a little improvement from Ellsbury, the .367 and .354 wOBA’s for each player could easily flip next season, with Ellsbury on the rise offensively. It should also be noted that Jacoby is 2 years younger.

DEFENSE
I’ll start with Crawford, since his is a lot simpler. Defensively, he is very very good. In 8 Major League seasons, only twice has he not posted a UZR/150 in LF less than 13.9: once was a still strong 9.6 (down from 14.2 the previous season), and the very next season just -1.4. However, he rebounded to a ridiculous 25.6 the next year (in just 108 games, though), and had a strong 2009 with 17.5. Now, he appears to have everything figured out in LF, he know how to play and has likely reached his fielding peak. The only question now is how well he holds his range. As discussed earlier, his speed appears to be on the decline, which may bring a slight decrease in range, but expect another great season in the field from Crawford (probably 14-16 UZR/150). Ellsbury is much different. Last season in CF he posted a miserable -18.3 UZR/150, down from a decent 6.9/150 his rookie season. And anyone that watched any film could see his problem: very bad reads. He has the athletic ability to be a phenomenal fielder at or above Crawford’s peak, but he doesn’t see the ball well off of the bat in CF, gets late jumps, and has to dive at what others could bag easily. However, with a premier CF in Mike Cameron coming to Fenway, if Jacoby exhibits any desire to improve, Cameron should be able to help him greatly. This is not to mention how covering a smaller amount of ground in LF and playing alongside Cameron in CF should make things much easier on him.This combined with his UZR data shows that Ellsbury should be a very good fielder in either of the corner outfield positions, especially LF. The reads appear to be easier for him to make, as he has a 19.1 UZR/150 in Right, and 21.8 in Left, though both are in limited service time. So while there is little information to determine a trend, it appears to be upward for Jacoby, and stable to decreasing for Crawford. Next year at least, they should be about equal, with maybe a slight edge to Crawford.

FINAL VERDICT – Crawford posted a career high 5.5 WAR last year, while Jacoby’s 1.9 was hampered by his horrible fielding. But declines in Fielding and Batting values as I discussed with Crawford, and improvements in fielding for Ellsbury, Jacoby has a 3.9 to 3.4 lead. In reality this means they are almost the same value, though CHONE projects no improvement for Ellsbury offensively, and I doubt this will be the case. So in 2010 Ellsbury should be a very, very, slightly better player, increasing for about 2 more years as he enters his peak as Crawford has seen career highs which should hold for 2-3 seasons (again, slightly below Ellsbury’s) before they begin to decline.

but I’m not sure how easy it is to quantify, especially in relation to a player’s other skills. WAR is an attempt to do so. It’s imperfect, but it’s a stat well worth considering when evaluating a player. I just don’t think it’s the only one.