Help Requested: Past System Ranks
I'd like to do a post talking about Moore's development of the minor league system.
Does anyone have old system rankings on hand (or if you are bored and noble, time to find them)?
I'm looking for Baseball America and a few other voices (Sickels, BP, KLaw and feedback on who to also use is welcome), from 2006-2010.
If someone hooks me up awesomely, you can have a great prize of... of... hmm... well, pride, and also maybe like choosing the Overflow Lass for 2010 or something
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Hmmm
BA 2001-2006 rankings:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/2006/26854.html
If you have a subscription:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-talent-rankings/
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
its interesting that the royals of 01-05 are comparable to the phillies
who i would associate with a much strong system
01- 14th
02 – 21st
03 – 26th
04- 19th
05- 28th
Does anyone have a subcription to BA?
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 17, 2010 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking about it just to access that webpage
I’d be interested in reading their rankings from 1987.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Sending email
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 17, 2010 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
check with Dayton
I bet he does
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 17, 2010 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
I think I am still banned with the rest of the blogging world
Actually, I heard talk that blogger “may” get press credentials with the Royals this season. Will wait and see.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 17, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
are you going to spring training?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 18, 2010 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
For a few games around 15th.
I have a field pass for one game, but that was for work for the opposing team.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 18, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions
you may have to put the term "blogger" in quotes too
they probably mean Mellinger, or maybe his intern
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 18, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
supposedly there was a discussion at the winter meetings about blogs
and teams opening up more to websites
of course, 90% of that is coming out of guys like Murray Chass who are just old school guys now trying to “blog”
they probably think KCStar.com is a "blog"
and guys like Mellinger (and JoPo) are wild and crazy young kids. hopefully that’s not the case and/or they figure it out. you could be the next Joel Thorman.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 18, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball America Top 100 Prospects 1991-2007
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/26983.html
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
John Sickels
2010: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/10/30/1108490/top-20-kansas-city-royals
2009: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/10/15/635257/kansas-city-royals-top-20
2008: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/11/9/172934/273
2007: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/11/14/14436/066
2006: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2006/2/15/10533/1637
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I can save you some time
I’d like to do a post talking about Moore’s development of the minor league system.
Billy Butler eventually turned out okay. Everyone else . . . not so much.
yes
Thank goodness Dayton drafted Billy Butler and has been such a big fan over the years.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 17, 2010 5:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Moore did not draft him, but he sure was in charge during the development phase of Butler's career
And even Butler was jerked around and needed a “breakout” this year to be a success story.
The development of the other guys under his watch (which also includes players he did not draft or otherwise acquire) has been pretty spotty. The following are guys who were at one time ranked as top prospects, or were high draft picks, or otherwise highly thought of, but whose development has not gone as expected: Gordon, Hochevar, Davies, Cortes, Moustakas, Hosmer, Rosa, Maier, Lubanski, Costa, Huber, Ka’aihue, Pimentel, Gutierrez, Wood, Bianchi, Giavotella, and the gaggle of super fast/no hit centerfielders. A few got hurt, but by no means all of them did.
Danny Duffy is close to being a success story, but even the expectations for him dropped from future no. 2 or 3 starter to backend starter/bullpen guy.
Baseball America has dropped their expectations for Duffy
As has Baseball Prospectus.
Current quote from BA Top 10
Though he’ll pitch the entire 2010 season at age 21, Duffy isn’t that far away from the majors. One of the last remaining tests for the potential No. 3 starter is finding out how he handles adversity—because he hasn’t encountered any.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on Feb 18, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Callis always liked Duffy more than everyone else at BA.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know what Callis said
that is from JJ Cooper who did the Royals review last season as well.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Its actually encouraging that they have Duffy at #8 overall
as a #3 starter quality.
BA take per their Top 10
#3’s Lamb, Duffy
#2/3 Melville
- Crow
They don’t give a listing for Montgomery but I would say 1/2
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
It displayed Crow wrong that was as a #Two starter
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I generally agree with you
Ironically, of course, it’s pretty clear that Moore was never really a fan of Billy Butler.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 17, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
To be fair, the vast majority of prospects fail
And several on that list have not failed yet. And have Wood, Bianchi, Kila and Giavotella not developed as expected? Were they expected to become great? I would have thought that most expected them to develop into pretty good minor leaguers with some kind of shot of getting to the majors, but that’s about it. And that’s where they are.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 6:35 AM EST up reply actions
Davies
And I don’t know how much of the development of Kyle Davies can be credited/blamed on the Royals system, as he came up in the Braves system. But, Davies has done better as a Royal (2.8 WAR) than he did as a Brave (0.5 WAR).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 6:40 AM EST up reply actions
generally agreed
don’t most ML teams have a list like that of busted prospects? although they also probably have a list of prospects who worked out, instead of GMDM’s zero (so far).
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 18, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
It is difficult to isolate the blame here
Moore inherited a bunch of minor leaguers, but only two genuinely good prospects. One of them has performed well and the other hasn’t. Does Moore deserve credit for developing one of them and the blame for not appropriately developing the other? I don’t think he deserves much credit or blame for either of them. Is Moore to blame for not developing good major leaguers out of the other mediocre prospects? He and his system could be at fault, or maybe they just weren’t very good to begin with. As far as the players Moore has both drafted and developed, well it takes a while to develop a kid into a major leaguer. In three years, how many draftees should a good organization have in the majors? Damned few. It takes a while.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
well, in this specific case, what was the "development"?
basically they screwed around with Butler defensively and … sent him to the majors super early… thats about it
Right, and I don't think they deserve credit or blame for Butler
And is there any reasonable basis for criticizing how Moore and his people handled Butler? How did they “screw around with his defense”? He had proven early in his professional career that he couldn’t handle third base. So he was moved to LF. Moore inherited this LFer who couldn’t play LF very well. But they continued to see if he could develop there, which made sense because he would have been MUCH more valuable to the organization as a below average fielding LFer who could hit as he hits. So they moved him to DH/1B, which is where he belongs. Despite the fact that many (both fans and analysts like Keith Law) said that they should just give up on Butler as a fielder and keep him at DH, they eventually played him at 1B, where he is developing into a below averge fielding 1B, but not an awful one.
Now, with regard to when Butler got called up, was he rushed? He seems to have handled it pretty well. Would he have done better if he were called up later? I don’t know. But I am pretty sure that if Moore had kept Butler in the minors for another year, most fans, including most at RR would be calling Moore an incompetent idiot for letting the organization’s best hitting prospect languish in the minors while the major league team failed to score runs.
Isn’t this kind of a blame Moore when things go wrong and blame Moore when things go right kind of situation?
But the overall point that Moore and his people had little to do with the development of Butler and Gordon is certainly correct.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
its a tough call
but an argument could be made that the smarter move would have been shifting him to 1B much sooner, and trying to make him not half bad there
I see the merits of their go for broke LF approach, but I’m not sure how it jives with promoting him aggressively as possible either
There are lots of risks and benefits to every possible strategy they could have used
But this strategy seems to have worked out pretty well. Some other options may have worked better, or worse.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see how its truly worked out "well"
they burned a year of his service time in promoting him too early, and he’s one of the worst defensive 1Bs in the AL
I see what you are saying about not being reflexively anti-moore, But I can’t say that their plan with him was a slam dunk success
He's an emerging star
He’s already had a 2.5 WAR season and is likely to get better. That’s pretty successful development. Now, if by “calling him up too early” you mean the first season he was called up, that wasn’t a full year of service time. In fact, they’ve gamed his service time enough that the Royals will get an additional full season from him. I probably would have called him up later, but it’s hard to keep a top 10 MLB prospect in AAA when he’s dominating that level and the major league team is awful. With regard to his 1B defense, he’s had horrible IF skills his entire professional career. It’s not like he has a high defensive ceiling. And I think he’ll hit that ceiling before the Royals get into contention. I don’t think the timing of his defensive transition to 1B is really an issue in practical terms.
No this plan wasn’t a slam dunk success. But what plan would have been a slam dunk success, or even a greater success than what happened? All we can do is speculate. Maybe your plan or my plan would have actually worked out worse. There’s no easy answer here.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Keepin him in LF
wasn’t effecting his hitting at the time so I don’t see the point in moving him right away.
I wonder how much credit can be given to development at all.
Would Michael Jordan have became Michael Jordan if he would’ve skipped North Carolina. I don’t think that one shot his freshman year turned him into some super human.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
of course...
…for most of the time Davies was in the Braves System, Dayton was the Braves’ director of player personnel development (and he was involved with scouting when Davies was drafted and Assistant GM for pretty much the rest of the time), so there’s got to be some kind of partial credit due there.
But Moore didn't make the key decisions
…of rushing him to the majors and how he was handled in the majors. Those mistakes of development were made by others.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
I do disagree
with GMDMs overall thinking about development of pitchers but that is more of a difference in the longtoss thought process.
I don’t think GMDM is ruining any positional players on the development side. Butler has turned into the hitting machine that we and scouts thought he would as for Gordon who knows. Gordon was treated the same as Butler rushed a year too early, it seems to have paid off with Billy and not Alex how do we know it would’ve worked for Alex in the reverse?
I don’t think that is a strategy GMDM will incorporate in the future as he viewed the team as having a ridiculously low amount of playable pros IHO. Right or wrong he views the AAA/ML teams as having more and better talent currently and the need to fill in a position is less.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
the thing is
service time for guys like Maier or even Kila… it doesn’t matter, you’re probably not going to want them at the end of those years anyway, and yet it seems like that Moore has sorta gotten hesitant about those types (although probably not for service time issues)
with Gordon and Butler however, those are potentially huge impacts on the club long term. getting an extra year of their primes could be worth something like 10 wins, and yet they seemed to rush them
Perhaps
But how often do you see a bad MLB team with a great prospect who appears to be ready for the majors actually keep that great prospect in the minors despite how desperately the major league team needs him? Unless the prospect is blocked by a decent major leaguer, teams call the player up as soon as he looks ready and there is a place to play him. Everyone fawns all over the Rays for how their FO is “doing it the right way” but they didn’t let their great young prospects sit in the minors when they appeared to be ready for the majors. They called them up as soon as it looked like they could contribute. B.J. Upton got his first call to the majors at age 19. Delmon Young at 20. Price at 22. Longoria at 22. Brignac at 22.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Keeping players in AAA and not promoting them,
only makes sense if you are trying to bring up a large group of great players together, and having some sort of a plan to have a window to contend because you are a small market club, save away money for future use for FA’s to fill out the gaps…
I’m Glad we don’t fit that mold and don’t have 2-3 more service years of Grinke, Bulter and Gordan. I mean, we would have had to play replacement level scrubs, lost a few more games, and would have had a couple hundred million dollars saved away to pay the frist pick in the draft, and to sign all sorts of international free agents, and then contend for a long time. Instead, we wisely got 10 more wins the last few seasons and we still look terrible.
Give me a break, the rules of baseball don’t limit how low your payroll can be or how you have to use your money. It’s just incompetent management that the Royals don’t have a good model for sucess.
Go Royals!
Yes, the Royals should still have Greinke, Soria, Butler and Gordon in the minors waiting for the major league team to get close to contention.
There are several reasons why no organization does that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
apples to oranges
B.J. Upton got his first call to the majors at age 19. Delmon Young at 20. Price at 22. Longoria at 22. Brignac at 22.
I see some similarity with Upton, but the other players just don’t seem comparable to how the royals handled Butler/Gordon, not the least of which because Longoria and Price were both contributing TO A GOOD TEAM
They've been consistent in calling up prospects when they look ready...
…and when there is an open spot on the team for them to get playing time. And this has been regardless of the quality of the team at the time. Uptgon and Young were both called up very young (younger than Butler) to poor teams. So does this mean that the Rays don’t “do things the right way?” If so, who does in this respect?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
BJ Upton was called up in 2004
under Chuck LaMar, he was 19 (!) and I’m not sure there was much point to it… its not really a datapoint for the current regime one way or the other
Delmon Young was traded after his first full season, so at some level its clear the Rays weren’t too worried about losing a year of his prime anyway
BJ Upton was called up in 2004 under Chuck LaMar, he was 19 (!) and I’m not sure there was much point to it… its not really a datapoint for the current regime one way or the other
Actually it is a datapoint for the current regime. They kept calling him up even though he had options and when they knew the team wasn’t going to compete.
Delmon Young was traded after his first full season, so at some level its clear the Rays weren’t too worried about losing a year of his prime anyway
Now you’re really reaching. They called him up at age 20 when he was one of the very top prospects in the game (top 5 I think). And they did it at a time when the team wasn’t competitive. Do you really think that when he was a top prospect and they called him up that they thought he really wasn’t very good and they shouldn’t care about service time? That’s pretty unbelievable. As I said, that organization (under the current regime) has been very consistent with calling up good prospects when they were ready and when they could get playing time, regardless of the competitiveness of the team.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree
that Alex was brought up a year too early but do you really think that 75 extra games Loria played in the minors is the difference between All Star Alex and not?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
The point is that for everyone on that list, their current stock is down from what it was previously
Woods, Bianchi, and Kila were formerly rated as Top 5 prospects by BA or BP. Giavotella was a high draft pick (second round) who at the time was expected to move quickly through the system.
I agree with the gist of your general point
But I don’t think it applies to everyone you listed. Gia was a high draft pick widely described has having a low ceiling and a questionable future. I don’t think his stock was ever very high. While Bianchi was a top 5 prospect in the Royals system a few years ago, it was by default. The system was in chambles and even merely decent prospect could get into the Royals top 5. His stock hasn’t fallen so much as the stock of other, better prospects (newer draftees, mostly) has risen, surpassing him. His prospect status essentially lay dormant due to injuries until last season’s performance which has raised his stock significantly over a year ago.
And some other prospects may have a lower rank in the Royals system than they once did, but not because the scouting opinion on them is much worse, but because the Royals have added many better prospects. And some guys like Wood and Kila have had their stocks both rise and fall during Moore’s tenure.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Feb 18, 2010 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Thats somewhat inaccurate
BA had pretty much given up on Bianchi going into last season rating him outside the Top 31. Now he is just outside the Top 10 from what I’ve heard Bianchi hasn’t seen #5 since Jan. of ’06 so I would probably give GMDMs staff a little credit for his revival.
Woods could be a developmental issue as it sounds like he has the “stuff” but has developed little to no consistency with it.
Kila has never been a “real” prospect and the problem isn’t development as he has at least remained healthy and flourished under GMDM regime the real problem with Kila is the FO not recognizing he actually has a skill(OBP).
Gio didn’t really regress as much as he just had bad luck early in the season. I would say I don’t like the change he or team made to his approach later in the season Apr-July 14.5 BB% Aug-Sep 4.8%. I don’t know if that was him or the team though, I guess we’ll find out this season.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.




















