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First comment on Mellingers post is gold.
These projections are worthless. Baseless. Meaningless. Just like most of the stat BS.

Guillen is way better than his, so is Getz, and so is Ankiel. I could go on but what’s the point arguing with a calculator.

85 wins. Best rotation in the division. Most speed on the basepath’s and in the OF. Improved bullpen and most reliable closer in the division.
Most breakout years by individual players:Getz, Gordon, Ankiel, Butler, Hochevar, and Tejada.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Feb 19, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Squirt that in a bag and huff it.

by Salty on Feb 19, 2010 9:11 AM EST up reply actions  

why is GMDM posting comments on Mellinger's blog?

Doesn’t he have more important things to do?

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 19, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Based on this part of the...

…comment—-“Most breakout years by individual players:Getz, Gordon, Ankiel, Butler, Hochevar, and Tejada”—-I couldn’t decide if the comment was tongue-in-cheek. I mean, relying on breakout years from 4 everyday players and 2 starting pitchers is, well, somewhat farfetched. At most, maybe 2-3 players per team per year have breakout seasons. The best you can hope from everyone else is average (meaning staying with their prior averages—be they good or otherwise). – TL

"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.

by timlacy on Feb 19, 2010 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

It honestly never occured to me that it might be.

Company line down perfect:


Most speed on the basepath’s and in the OF. Improved bullpen and most reliable closer in the division.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Feb 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Kudos to Ryan

his story is very inspiring. While I wish he would be more of a believer in stats and I think at time he tends to talk down to his audience, I am personally very inspired by his story and glad that he’s come through it. i wish him nothing but the best.

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Feb 19, 2010 9:08 AM EST reply actions  

Hilton Richardson

A guy I’d like to know more about. He seems to have taken longer to develop than the Royals anticipated, but knowing he might take a few years, he’s still on pace to make the bigs around 24. That is assuming he continues to progress.

He’s quoted as being five tool potential. What is his best tool? Weakest tool? That kind of thing.

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Feb 19, 2010 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

i think it is...

Five tools are Power, average, throwing arm, defense, and speed… what are the 7 skills?

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Feb 19, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

where is "coming to play"?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 19, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Just behind "Knowing how to play the game"

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 19, 2010 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

and

green

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Feb 19, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I've been rough on Ryan

But he’s been on the radio a lot recently talking about his charity – Gloves for Kids – and he really does come off as a passionate person concerned with others well-being, which I have to admire. He also spent a segment talking about his book and some of the stuff he dealt with and I was really impressed with how in-touch he was with himself and what he was going through.

We may disagree on bunting, Tony Pena Jr. and the resurrection of Josh Hamilton (although the revelation of his own personal demons now put his championing of Hamilton in a different light), but I bet if it came down to it, I would probably enjoy a beer with Lefebvre.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

He just needs to go back to radio

Trying to fill the dead time on TV doesn’t work well for him

Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed

by Top Ramen on Feb 19, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

"I would probably enjoy a beer with Lefebvre."

(ahem)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 19, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

D'oh!

Non-alcoholic I guess?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

yuck - thanks but no thanks

if it were me i’d prefer Root Beer to the O’Douls

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 19, 2010 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I love signing up for the Designated Driver giveaway at Kauffman

You get a coupon for a free O’doul’s! I get all the crap from drinking a beer and none of the intoxication.

That's what I want in a beer.

I wonder if you win the prize if you show up to claim it while drunk. :)

by AxDxMx on Feb 19, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I couldn't find an O'Douls at the K last year.

Sometimes a beer tastes great but I have the keys, you know?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Feb 19, 2010 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I would say having a few at The K and driving home aren't really an issue unless you binge

And at those prices, who can binge drink there? My non-drinking ways at The K are more a protest of their prices than anything else.

by AxDxMx on Feb 19, 2010 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Hilton Richardson's tool

Well he’s in low-A now, and his SB/HR ratio was 22/1 last season (yes, I just made that stat up) so I’m guessing HR power is his weakest tool. That said, he still had an .819 OPS in rookie ball so there might be more than meets the eye.

by Crooow on Feb 19, 2010 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

He hit 4 his first season but only .198

I wonder if he has changed his hitting approach to the contact first, get the average up, and as I mature, I’ll add power while I fill out. What do you think he’ll do in the Midwest League?

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Feb 19, 2010 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

John Bale is big in Japan

So he’s going back

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

so.....

in two years we will offer him another 2 year, 4 million dollar contract???

by higs on Feb 19, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Love this comment in the Mellinger piece
These projections are worthless. Baseless. Meaningless. Just like most of the stat BS.

Guillen is way better than his, so is Getz, and so is Ankiel. I could go on but what’s the point arguing with a calculator.

85 wins. Best rotation in the division. Most speed on the basepath’s and in the OF. Improved bullpen and most reliable closer in the division.
Most breakout years by individual players:Getz, Gordon, Ankiel, Butler, Hochevar, and Tejada.

How can anyone disagree with this?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 10:26 AM EST reply actions  

wow

This guy’s optimism could power a large sea-faring vessel.

To be fair, I could see a scenario where we DO have the best rotation in baseball and we DO win 85 games. I give that about a 1.5% chance of happening though.

by Crooow on Feb 19, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions  

i agree that there's no point in arguing with a calculator

especially when it has a bad attitude like this one:

but who would argue with this?:

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 19, 2010 1:11 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

You need one of these calculators

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Feb 19, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I think if I was a MLB player

I would demand a salary of $5,318,008 every year just to be funny.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

you'd be the Jared Allen of baseball

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 19, 2010 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Holy cow, Yuni is not the worst in the division?
4. Yuni Betancourt, Royals, .690
5. Adam Everett, Tigers, .611

Am I misreading or missing something here?

by Boots 58 on Feb 19, 2010 10:48 AM EST reply actions  

Everett it terribly offensively

But he makes up for it by being one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball.

Yuni just sucks all around.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 19, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

He's also cheap cheap cheap and a real bargain at $1 million a year for a 1win-ish SS.

Good for the Tigers because it seem like most of their budget goes to broken down old people.

by Decatur on Feb 20, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

The Tigers are lucky to have him — makes all the difference between 76 and 75 wins for them in ’09. Heck, add in Johnny Damon, and they might even win 77!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 20, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

'10

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 20, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

what's the bare minimum OBP/SLG/UZR

we could get from betancourt to make his ’10 season tolerable in your mind (assuming he starts 120+ games)?

by 9il on Feb 19, 2010 1:03 PM EST reply actions  

For any starter, you would want at least 1.5 WAR

A shortstop who hits league average and plays average defense (0 UZR) would be around 2.75 WAR over roughly 150 games. To stay above 1.5 WAR, Betancourt could be no worse than -12.5 offensive and defensive runs combined.

Defensive value should make intuitive sense. For reference on offense, Jhonny Peralta was -13 batting runs hitting 254/316/375 last year and Christian Guzman was -12.5 hitting 284/306/390, while Rafael Furcal was -7 runs hitting 269/335/375 and Alfonso Soriano was -6 runs hitting 241/303/423.

by Gopherballs on Feb 19, 2010 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

that should be a fanpost.

With a category for each possibly-damning player on this team.

by Crooow on Feb 19, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

.320/.420/0

I wanted a .750 OPS, but even that’s too much to ask. Each offensive stat would be a career high. He hasn’t had a UZR above 0 since 2006.

Needless to say, this modest line is well above projection and likely impossible.

That seems like a more appropriate name.

by CentralChamps20?? on Feb 19, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions  

My sincere hope for this year

is a team that wins between 75-80 games, AND does it by playing sound fundamentally. Ideally we would hover around .500 all year so we’re at least on the outer fringes of wildcard contention.

i do think that we could have a much better year than expected, but it’s going to take nearly all of the following things to happen (in other words, not bloody likely):

Zack stays within shouting distance of last year’s performance
Meche gives us 2007/2008 production
Butler gives us AT LEAST what he gave us last year
Bannister can perform as a #3 starter for the entire year
One of Davies/Hochevar/Tejeda can perform as a #3/#4
Betancourt regresses to the mean (positively) or Aviles comes back and gives us near-2008 production
Gordon gives us a 125 OPS+ with average defense
Callaspo plays nearly every day at DH and hits like he did last year
The bullpen reverts back to 2007/2008 form

i would submit that none of these individually are all that unlikely to happen; i would say that the chances of 2/3 of these happening are a little less than 50/50. chances of 8/9 happening: less than 25% IMO and probably less than 10% chance that they all happen.

even assuming that 8/9 of these things were to happen, we’re still not accounting for the fact that we will most likely get nothing from podsednik or kendall, we’ve got to hope that dejesus maintains his previous years’ production, soria stays healthy, and we have no idea what we’ll get from ankiel.

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Feb 19, 2010 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

so you're telling me there's a chance!

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 19, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Feb 19, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

those stunned me

I did not see Kendall as a “gigantic multi-colored arm tats” guy

he needs to join forces with Farnsworth

by Freneau on Feb 19, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

oh yeah

he gets off on being a hardass, from what i’ve seen and read. I remember a few years back he rushed the mound because he said the pitcher “stared him down and took two hard steps his way” or something to that effect. i’d like to see him and farnsworth beat each other near death in a spring intrasquad game. Crossing my fingers.

by royalspipeline on Feb 19, 2010 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

doesn't Brandon Inge have some gnarly tat's on his arms as well?

maybe that is GMDM’s new tool that he is looking for.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 19, 2010 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah - but I think they are his sons names written elaborately...

…I don’t know why that makes them different in my mind, because they still look ridiculous, but it does seem like a different thing than what Farnsworth and Kendall have.

by Gross(est) on Feb 21, 2010 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that was just 'roid rage

guys just don’t average 2 home runs a year without a little help

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 19, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Tell that to Ozzie Smith

Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.

by averagegatsby on Feb 20, 2010 2:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Gordon
Submitted by ksuatheart on February 18, 2010 – 10:39am.
I’m giving Gordon until some point in June to get his act in gear. If he’s hitting below .270, Dayton should trade him or option him, and give Callaspo a shot as the full time third baseman.

I told a co-worker, and he said maybe my downgrade (as I did with Bannister before last season) would be the kick in the pants that Alex has been waiting for.

What I really want is to see Aviles or Bianchi to force Dayton’s hand in spring training.

I think an infield of Butler, Getz, Aviles/Bianchi, and Callaspo/improved Gordon could hold it’s own against the rest of the division.

Egads.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 19, 2010 10:40 PM EST reply actions  

option him?

because we have so many great 3B options

by Freneau on Feb 20, 2010 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

The Criticism Of

Of Avatar seems to be a ridiculous polemic. I have not seen the movie, but it is impossible not to know it’s narrative. POV is the arbiter of reality.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 19, 2010 11:20 PM EST reply actions  

i wouldn't say the review was ridiculous

my feelings about the film are similar. in fact, i’m not sure where i’d disagree.

by 9il on Feb 20, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

found it

i never got bored with the special effects. although, it’s the only time i’ve seen a film in 3D.

by 9il on Feb 20, 2010 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

my feelings are also similar, but i wish the critique was better-written

poor story telling is poor story telling, no matter how cool the special effects are.

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "...And like all my plans, it's so simple an idiot could have devised it!"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 20, 2010 7:58 PM EST up reply actions  

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