2010 Player Projections - Alex Gordon
About every couple days until opening day, we will be looking at the projections for various Royals and see if you think the player will do better, the same or worse than those projections. We will be using the data from Fangraphs and the poll question will be based off the Chone projection system.
We will begin with Alex Gordon. Here is how the various projection systems have Alex measuring up:
Basic:
| Season | Team | G | AB | PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG |
| 2010 | Bill James | 150 | 536 | 603 | 146 | 86 | 38 | 2 | 20 | 86 | 76 | 67 | 121 | 12 | 4 | 0.272 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 121 | 423 | 479 | 113 | 72 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 63 | 54 | 49 | 99 | 9 | 3 | 0.267 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 309 | 352 | 79 | 49 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 43 | 38 | 35 | 75 | 7 | 2 | 0.256 | |
| 2010 | Fans (54) | 139 | 517 | 587 | 142 | 84 | 36 | 2 | 21 | 88 | 90 | 70 | 123 | 10 | 1 | 0.275 |
Advanced:
| Season | Team | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wRAA | wOBA |
| 2010 | Bill James | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 0.359 | 0.463 | 0.822 | 0.191 | 0.319 | 87.1 | 14.9 | 0.358 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.49 | 0.353 | 0.435 | 0.788 | 0.168 | 0.319 | 65.7 | 8.3 | 0.350 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 0.10 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.339 | 0.421 | 0.760 | 0.165 | 0.305 | 44.1 | 1.9 | 0.335 |
| 2010 | Fans (54) | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.57 | 0.365 | 0.471 | 0.836 | 0.197 | 0.320 | 89.1 | 17.9 | 0.365 |
I am not here to influence your vote, just want to see what you think.
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damn, that was fast
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
twss
sorry, all the Sluggerrr/wiener jokes from the other thread…
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 23, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
About the same triple slash, but over on playing time and counting stats
Any chance we can replace Bill James or the Fans with ZIPS (which has Gordon at 248/333/415)? (And, yeah, I know ZIPS is not on Fangraphs yet).
Truthfully -- Chone is pretty accurate and I will stay with them
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah, CHONE has become the gold standard
I was just suggesting ZIPS as a second opinion from another “smart” system (in place of one of the optimistic projections).
But as ZIPS is not on Fangraphs yet, I could see it being a real pain to figure out the “advanced” stats.
better
although that’s not based on anything rational, really
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
A lot of stories on health of pitchers
and some on others (like Bloomquist and questioning how Guillen will show up), but is Alex Gordon 100% at the start of the season? Not as much talk about him as usual this time of year. Last year it was all about how much work he’d done in the winter and how bulked up he was.
"Losing is a disease..." - The Natural
I'd say that's about right
Maybe a few points higher in AVG and OBP, but not enough that I felt like I could warrant putting “Better.” I’d be just fine with him putting up those numbers and playing solid defense. Better than Teahen last year and certainly better than Josh Fields.
by Soria's Unibrow on Feb 23, 2010 2:43 PM EST reply actions
Bad/Good peripherals
The best thing one can say about Gordon’s 2009 in the majors is that at least is was less than 200 PA — small sample size!
While some things remained generally the same (majors only) — K rate and BB rate about the same as 2008, and, heck, his HR/FB rate was better, his increased GB% and decreased LD% would be kinda scary. Now, they are a bit meaningful, as LD/GB rate “stabilize” more quickly than other stats, but it’s still a small sample.
I’m staunchly against saying “that was just because of injury” to explain away a players bad performance as irrelevant (cf Ankiel, Rick), because if the injury was so bad one season, are we supposed to pretend it won’t have any effect gong forward? Having said that, if Gordon’s doing better with the hip injury than he was, maybe he’ll be able to get better loft on the ball instead of driving it into the ground as he so often did in 2009. Because that was one of the more promising parts of his hitting pre-2009 — getting the ball in the air is a Good Thing, most of the time.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
Better
Over on the games played so the counting stats go up. I think the fans vote is fairly on, and I might even be so bold as to go 25 homers.
I hope to Christ I’m right.
one up
30 HRs!
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 23, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
The CHONE line
looks to me like a worst-case scenario. He ought to be good for at least an 800 OPS, you’d think. If he can’t do that, he might turn out to be a merely average player. I certainly hope he stays healthy and improves; an 850 OPS over 140 games would be a sign of future stardom.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
265/350/446
But keep in mind everyone not affiliated with Baseball Prospectus has said that PECOTA is broken this year.
Which time?
It may turn out OK in the end, as BP has hired some very smart guys to take it over, but last year it was way off, and there have been four or five updates where “it’s fixed!” was followed by “no wait, it’s really fixed now!” With Nate Silver not around anymore doing quality control, it may just take a successful year or two to regain confidence.
Callaspo Should Be
Replacing Getz against LHP. Gordon has a career BABIP of .260 against LHP; that should regress at least 20 points if not 30-40.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 23, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
maybe he simply doesn't hit the ball hard vs LHP
also, i don’t think Getz has much of a platoon split. or just slide him over to SS. :D
baseball rules.
Any Reason To
Bench Yu-Bet.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 23, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
i said better
but I could easily see only 250 PAs if DM options him in favor of Fields.
Don't Stop Believing!
For what it's worth...
…which is probably something like “nothing”, here are the averages of the 4 projections:
G – 137
AB – 446
HR – 16
AVG – .268
OBP – .354
SLG – .448
I’ll call it the METAFWIW projection
the right side of the chart is covered up by the article links column
on my browser. it’d be nice if the settings could be changed so that the display boxes don’t overlap.
Never going to happen -- I have gone back and forth with SBN about it
When I publish, I can’t even see what it will look like on front page until it is done.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure it depends on the browser you're using
I haven’t had such a problem with Firefox nor with Chrome
kcdc1 - At the top of the page....
…about an inch or two below where you can “search posts and comments”, there are buttons for “Narrow” and “Wide”. If you click the “Wide”, you should be able to see the entire chart.
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 23, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Fveeling Gooooood.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
+1
oh man, if we set our main goal as “winning season”, we’re going to be pretty bummed. i think our main goal is “try not to embarrass yourselves as we try to not be the worst team in baseball”.
i like that as Gordo’s goal, just not the fans’.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 23, 2010 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
So Chone projects Alex to do the exact same thing as last year
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
and nevermind...
Im retarded I read it wrong
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 23, 2010 6:14 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I never noticed how high Alex's K rate/AB is...
almost 25%. Does that have anything to do with his approach? His injury? His lack of patience?
And how much does that have to improve in order for him to have a career year?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
maybe the "hole in his swing" that's been talked about
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 23, 2010 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
Here is the Run Values Heat map for Alex Gordon. Positive Good, Negative bad. Keep low on Gordon and you're good to go.

Ignore Circles
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Did you do that yourself, Jeff?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 23, 2010 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
because it's cool
are the run values for the pitcher or hitter?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 23, 2010 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
They are for the hitter.
My brother wrote a program for me to do it, but it is a little clunky right now, the circles are going to be the hitters and actual strike zone. If you need a player, let me know
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
is it from the batter's perspective or the pitcher?
And I take it “negative” is bad for Gordon (not for the pitcher), as in that blue spot in the lower left-hand corner is Gordon swinging and missing (or making poor contact, etc.) at sliders?
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 24, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Pitchers prospective
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
ok, thanks
this is going to be really cool as you iron out some of the wrinkles. how many ABs does it take to generate a decent map?
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 24, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
so lower left hand corner is down and in for him?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Yes
The scale, which we are working on has one positive value. Here are a couple more (remember scales aren’t the same- one bug working out)
Albert P:

Yuni’s

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 24, 2010 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
I'm confused
“Positive good, negative bad.” Negative is blue. I assume Albert P. is Pujols. There’s a lot of blue on there.
The scales change for each batter and they are cut off.
All of Alberts green is positive, While with Yuni, it needs to be Yellow
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
Run values by count, ignore 2 strike fouls, the values were from Sabre Spreak
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 23, 2010 9:56 PM EST up reply actions
EPIC!~!!!!
I want more!
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by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Feb 24, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
25% is on the high side, but not terribly so, especially for a guy who walks around 10% of the time
A guy who strikes out 25% will rarely win a batting title, but can still be quite productive if he can still get on base and hit with some power — Nelson Cruz, Adam LaRoche, Shin-Soo Choo — and even really good hitters like Evan Longoria and Kevin Youkilis strike out that much. There is certainly more room for error than the guys who strike out over 30%.
I Think Gordon
Has elite power skills if he can ever learn to lay off pitches low outside and inside. He has serious issues with this.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 23, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
At least he doesn't have problems with pitches low away and in the dirt like a former catcher of ours.
This space for rent
by averagegatsby on Feb 24, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Berroa seemed to like these pitches too....
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 24, 2010 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
I doubt that he will improve...
and he is injury prone so it could be a shorten season for McSmirk. That being said, I sincerely hope that I am wrong on everything.
meh
While I get excited about James’ numbers, being a lifetime Royals fan has made me a very pessimistic person. I expect moments of dominant hitting, but I feel they will be balanced by bouts of terrible hitting and injuries. Gordon: .245 ba and 12 homers. I think Butler and Guillen could have 30 and 20 respectively, easy, especially if Guillen is just DH, though I think I remember him injuring himself while running to first on a grounder last year. I remember thinking how much it reminded me of Juan Gonzalez’ injury when he played for us. Regardless, I hope Gordon shows some of that dominating consistency that made him the college star he was.
I've always been a tad of a Gordon Hater
from watching so many games at Nebraska and on. Always thought his head got in his way but I was severly disappointed by last seasons injury.
I think he’s got .280/.360/.500 in his swing somewhere but I think it might be in Petco park and not in Kauffman. I definitely expect him to get back to ‘08 numbers if he stays healthy but won’t reach his peak.
I’ve never had fun watchin him all these years he is Robocop compared to DeJesus’s Barney.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

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