2010 Player Projections - Gil Meche
by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 10:52 AM EST
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Well, I run one more projection inquiry before next week as I have long weekend ahead. So today we will ask how Gil Meche will pitch compared to his projections from Fangraphs (Chone projections used in question):
Basic:
| Season | Type | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | HR | BB | SO |
| 2010 | Bill James | 7 | 10 | 4.29 | 27 | 27 | 153 | 157 | 18 | 60 | 115 | |
| 2010 | CHONE | 8 | 11 | 4.47 | 28 | 28 | 165 | 177 | 89 | 17 | 64 | 125 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 8 | 9 | 4.44 | 146 | 152 | 78 | 17 | 55 | 115 | ||
| 2010 | All Fans | 11 | 10 | 4.23 | 30 | 30 | 185 | 218 | 94 | 21 | 70 | 145 |
| 2010 | Other Fan | 11 | 11 | 4.28 | 30 | 30 | 184 | 218 | 94 | 21 | 70 | 143 |
| 2010 | Team Fans | 12 | 9 | 4.03 | 31 | 31 | 188 | 210 | 90 | 20 | 67 | 150 |
Advanced:
| Season | Type | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | WHIP | FIP |
| 2010 | Bill James | 6.76 | 3.53 | 1.92 | 1.06 | 1.42 | 4.36 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 6.82 | 3.49 | 1.95 | 0.93 | 1.46 | 4.12 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 7.09 | 3.39 | 2.09 | 1.05 | 1.42 | 4.31 |
| 2010 | All Fans (98) | 7.05 | 3.41 | 2.07 | 1.02 | 1.56 | 4.26 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (80) | 6.99 | 3.42 | 2.04 | 1.03 | 1.57 | 4.28 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (18) | 7.18 | 3.21 | 2.24 | 0.96 | 1.47 | 4.07 |
Value:
| Season | Type | Starting | Start-IP | RAR | WAR |
| 2010 | All Fans (98) | 25.9 | 185 | 25.9 | 2.6 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (80) | 25.2 | 184 | 25.2 | 2.5 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (18) | 30 | 188 | 30 | 3 |
I have a strong opinion, but will add it to the comments.
64 comments
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1 recs |
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Comments
I think Trey is going to blow out his arm this year
The whole, 4 starters going 1000 innings is a disaster waiting to happen. 3 months and he is done. Lines will be same, just less starts
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 10:54 AM EST reply actions
Wasn't that an extremely odd thing to come out of spring training
the year after two starting pitchers get injured?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
I see bad things happening to the 6th ranked SP staff this season.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think people read too much into these off-season comments
It’s not as if, should we lose pace in July, we’re just going to leave Greinke in there because we need to meet our 1000 inning expectation. There’s nothing wrong with wanting more innings from our starters. It would only be wrong if we abuse the one good part of our team to achieve this arbitrary goal. They haven’t abused our pitchers yet this season, so let’s hold our judgment in abeyance for a couple months.
everyone reads this as
a declaration that Hillman will leave the starters in further past 100 pitches and not an attempt to coax greater pitch efficiency.
But they said the same last offseason
And look what happened. Ridiculous overwork. Injuries.
Had last season not happened, i’d agree with you. But it did.
by kcbottom9th on Feb 25, 2010 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you here.
It wasn’t the fact that the Royals wanted to stretch out the starters…
It’s how they did it….
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I meant to add more to that...
Gil Meche… 139 pitches after a 120 and then followed by a 120 or so? Not smart.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
who was *ridiculously* overworked?
other than Meche on those few outings? I think Greinke was left in the game a little long on several occasions but I remember they were limiting him down the stretch. I don’t recall it being too terrible with Hochevar or Bannister.
Meche
and then (from memory) Bannister was thrown out there time and again after he had lost all effectiveness and complained of having a dead arm.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Banni was overworked.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
The biggest thing is that all pitchers arms react differently. I don’t think our staff understands that. I hope our new training staff does, but I can see them bringing in guys with similar theories to support their “stretching” of our staff.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
X
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by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Feb 25, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
What do you mean "Other than Meche?"
The number 2 starter was put on the DL and missed 11 or 12 starts. Thats not something you can brush off.
Hochevar had 5 consecutive starts of 100 or more pitches. £ of which were 110+ and 2 of which came in less than 6 innings.
Banny threw 5 consecutive 100+ games, 4 of which 110+, again some in very limited innings. The next two games he game 7 ER’s each in 80 and 94 pitches
by kcbottom9th on Feb 25, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
Seems as though there is a direct correlation...
There are a few exceptions of course… Verlander being the primary. But that’s why Petro talks about betting against guys that had gone back to back 110+ (is that the right number? It could be 115+) outings and making money over 70% of the time.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
i wasn't brushing it off
i just noticed that he was the only person anyone ever cited in the case of pitcher abuse. it wasn’t so much a rhetorical question as it was a question.
4starters?
I thought it was just starters in general? Couldn’t you use 8 to accomplish that in reality? KC had like 948 last season with quite a few starters.
I think 810 said it’s the equivalent of getting one more out per game.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I think he's going to regress back to his Mariner days
4.60 ERA
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm curious...
Looking at all of the projections, CHONE has the highest ERA (4.47) and the second lowest FIP (4.12). (And the one lower is the Royals’ fan projection). Is there some reason that CHONE is projecting significantly worse defense (or luck) than any of the other systems quoted?
Chone actually takes defense into account. I know Marcels doesn't.
Bill James has his FIPS higher than his ERA – Another reason not to have faith in it.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
He projects a +/- zone rating for each player and estimates playing time.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Honestly
If I had to pick a prediction line out of thin air it would be very very similar to that CHONE one. 28 Games started might be a stretch though. The HR rate looks too low too.
I picked worse.
Going to have to be convinced that Trey took the saddle off his back.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Same here.
Also, what is there that would indicate improvement? Coming off an injury? Spring training fan polls are always overly optimistic.
Error in your data.
I think you mistakenly put wins and losses in the basic stats instead of the advanced stats summary.
Turning Kool-Aid to Jesus Juice since 2009.
by Discodave on Feb 25, 2010 12:15 PM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
Trey, is that you?
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'm worried about the 1000 innings from our starters comment as well.
Especially after the issues we had last season. I think 1000 is a great goal between the five starters; five guys with 200 innings. However, it’s how we get to those innings, not the innings.
I’m afraid Trey will leave guys in there who are laboring well past 100 to try to reach his quota. We’ll have tired, fatigued, tweaked arms out there competing. This is especially scary after his track record.
As far as Meche is concerned, I think the FIP is high on all of those. I see him being around 4.00. I realize that he has a HR tendency, but I believe in Jason Kendall! (shoot me now) I had HUGE issues with Olivo’s pitch calling. MAJOR. I know it was mentioned that pitchers called their own games, but I saw a difference in how they pitched with the three different catchers. I also believe that you don’t make a pitcher work any harder than he has too. Some guys like Greg Maddux like to call their games, that’s fine. But you call it for Hochevar/Davies. I’d allow Bannister, Grienke, and Meche to decide what they want to do. If you get to much thinking going on out there as a pitcher, you end up beating yourself.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
META-FWIW
(average of each projected stat):
W: 9.5
L: 10
ERA: 4.29
G: 29.2
GS: 29.2
IP: 170.2
H: 188.7
R: 89
HR: 19
BB: 64.3
SO: 132.2
_________________
K/9: 6.98
BB/9: 3.41
K/BB: 2.05
HR/9: 1.01
WHIP: 1.48
FIP: 4.23
A lot of optimism so far
Large majorities think that Meche and Gordon will exceed projection this year. If both happen, this team is quite a bit better than last year—only C and 2B project worse than last year (did I really just say not having Miguel Olivo makes this team worse?):
OF: Pods/DDJ/Ankiel > DDJ/Armless Coco-MITCH-Mitch Sr.-Mitch Jr./JoGui-Bloomers
1B: 2010 Butler > 2009 Butler
2B: Getz < Callaspo
3B: Gordon > Hipless Gordon/Teahen
SS: Yuni=physically impossible to be worse than One-Armed Aviles/TPJ/Yuni
C: The Arm Whisperer < Bu-livo
DH: Don’t know who, but can anything be worse than last year?
SP: Greinke may regress, but still most awesome; Meche is better than Meche-d up by Hillman; Banny is Banny; Hoch/Davies/whatever will likely be at least what they were
RP: Soria’s fine, and again, by definition, can you get worse than last year’s sad lot?
Of course, all of this optimism might just be misplaced. I voted that Meche will be around the projection, and that will be disappointing—but “disappointing” is what being a Royals’ fan is all about. Then again, it’s spring, so GO ROYALS!!!!
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Feb 25, 2010 1:08 PM EST reply actions
YAY!
Regression to the mean, except maybe Butler who could be legitimately improving. But nonetheless I agree with you. And don’t forget there’s a possibility Aviles comes back 2B/SS.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 25, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Given Butler's 2007-2008 numbers
if he repeats 2009 in 2010, that would exceed reasonable expectations
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
really?
isn’t he young enough that he’s not going to regress towards 2007-2008? or was he just lucky in 2009?
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 25, 2010 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
that's still in the data set
yeah, we expect him to get better — if you look at CHONE’s projectoins and stuff from pre-2009, despite poor 2007 and 2008 in the majors (his minor-league MLEs are better, but they weren’t spectacular or anything), he was still projected to be a good hitter, because guys who hit like that at 21 and 22 (or whatever) improve in just about every category, and Butler did.
But without knowing how individual projection system do their thing, 1) 2009 is still only one season out of the 3 or 4 in most data sets, albeit the one weighted most heavily, 2) there is still regression to the mean
He still statistically projects as a very good hitter
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
picking hairs here
yeah, there’s a chance that his 2009 was partially luck and he’ll regress, but it might have also just been him being an awesome natural hitter and his true talent finally showing up at the MLB level. i wouldn’t be at all surprised if he does better in 2010 than he did in 2009. i also wouldn’t be surprised if he does slightly worse. i just don’t know that i agree with the statement that repeating 2009 would exceed ‘reasonable expectations.’ i’d set my baseline guess for 2010 somewhere near his 2009 numbers, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him deviate in either direction.
"Matt Klaassen"
Instead of “devil_fingers” = a little piece of all of us just died.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Feb 26, 2010 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
What am I not getting?
If Chone has the Royals pitching staff performing 6th-best in the majors, and has Meche doing this mediocre, what the hell am I missing?
Do they have Greinke repeating his performance last year in addition to Hochevar totally coming into his own?
His rates are not that bad, it just won't be seen the the W-L column or ERA
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
A FIP of 4.12 was around 45th best last year.
Some familiar names around there were Scott Baker, Andy Pettitte and Matt Garza
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
I use anyone less than 4.50 FIPs is pretty decent
about 65 pitchers hit that level last year.
About 2 per team – Meche is out #2
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
gotcha
So he’s pretty much right at where our #2 is supposed to be.
But to be considered 6th-best, they must have Greinke coming close to repeating last year’s performance and some significant improvement from Bannister and/or Hochevar.
They are him at 6 WAR, less than last year, but the best out there
The problem child is Luke from desired amount and results.
BP’s new FIPs like pitching stat, SIERA had Luke at just over 4.00 last year, but an actually ERA over 6. Luke’s ground ball rate is desirable except when you have the Royal’s IF D behind him.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
FIP is the exactly the same scale as ERA
MLB average ERA has been around 4.3 the last couple seasons
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2010 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Hochevar guaranteed a spot?
Why is it a given, as Bob Dutton has pointed out, that Hochevar is guaranteed a spot in the rotation? His three good starts last year carry that much weight?
by Tarnished Crown on Feb 25, 2010 1:46 PM EST reply actions
maybe because they aren't sure they can afford to bring Sidney Ponson back?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2010 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
OT -- d_f I sent you an email a couple of days ago, can you respond to it
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Whoa-
who’s this Matt Klaassen character?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Holy shit -- someone killed DF
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 25, 2010 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 25, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 25, 2010 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Screw off insanity wolf
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by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Feb 25, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
It's not unreasonable to hope for
180 innings, a 4.3 ERA, and a 1.4 WHIP from Meche, based on his past record. Assuming Hillman hasn’t destroyed him completely, that is, and he can actually play baseball in 2010.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
If He Is
Performing above expectations, that has to be done. He was a nice place holder, but he’s not part of a successful future.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 25, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with Jeff on others on taking a little worse due to health issues and workload
Meche is only 31, but has extra mileage on his arm. He came up through the late 1990s meatgrinder known as the Mariners system and already had a serious shoulder injury.
Is that Lou Pinella's era?
Or Dusty Bakers?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
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