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Around SBN: What If This Is It For The Celtics? End Of An Era Looming

"Everybody thought we had the greatest offseason in the history of whatever and people in the game were saying we did as good as anybody in improving the team."

Everybody thought. Greatest offseason. History.

Let’s ignore the part about how "people in the game" said the Royals "did as good as anybody in improving the team." This very well may be true. I mean, let’s say there was a guy in your fantasy league who has sucked year after year, whose draft strategy ossified in 1985 and who thinks that Joe Saunders is a first-round pick because he’s won 16 games each of the last two years. If that guy was tired of getting beaten up year after year, and was thinking of leaving the league – or worse, he was thinking about learning what all this hullabaloo about "sabermetrics" and "Moneyball" was about, and asked you for advice, what would you tell him? If you wouldn’t be tempted to pat him on the back and give him a few "attaboys" and tell him that he’s doing great and eventually his luck has to turn, well, you’re a better man than I.

So if Billy Beane or Kenny Williams told Dayton Moore that hey, we love what you did with your roster, and that Mike Jacobs is going to be a huge addition to your lineup and Kyle Farnsworth could be a force in your bullpen, well…let he who wouldn’t have done the same thing in their shoes throw the first stone. I’m fresh out.

Rany on the Royals (and Kaegel!). I think Rany's reading Royals Review FanShots, waiting a week to post...

over 2 years ago Newavatar_tiny Matt Klaassen 33 comments 0 recs  | 

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I was thinking the same thing

Royal’s Review - The Pulse of Royal’s Nation

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 3, 2010 12:25 PM EST reply actions  

Dayton Moore would never allow that to happen

Not without both Rany and Wong being hooked up to electro-shock equipment so he could zap the interviewer and interviewee whenever he didn’t like the question, or to prevent Wong from answering.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Feb 3, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

/Simmons

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Feb 3, 2010 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I love how Jin Wong

has no background in stats, has just been an organizational guy for years, and then gets that job

by Freneau on Feb 3, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, I'm not even sure his job is as a stats guy

Schaum seems to think he’s cool, though, and that counts for something to me.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

that's totally serious, by the way.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

that's why we need the interview

This might just be a faulty memory, but I vaguely recall hearing somewhere that Wong is the “stats” guy not so much as in analyzing performance and recommending player acquisitions, but more on the contract side of things, like how much the teams should offer player X in arbitration and so on.

Has Mat Olkin ever explained how his consulting works?

by Gopherballs on Feb 3, 2010 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

YOu mean the multi-team thing? Or just what he does for the Royals?

Seems like I read an interview with him once, but can’t remember where… I’ll look later.

Did you see in Jack Z.‘s BP interview that he said Olkin wasn’t renewed for 2010? Another Mariner’s reject?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions  

For the Royals

and beyond the “I get an email asking for certain data, I compile the data, and then I email the results back to the team” description.

I missed Jack Z’s interview — my BP subscription lapsed, and every year I put off renewing it a little longer. This year, I am waiting until I would actually have time to read it regularly before deciding. How has the new roster of writers shaken out? I was ready to cancel outright until that news came out.

by Gopherballs on Feb 3, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I love Tommy Bennett's stuff

although he might be an acquired taste

it looks like Colin is putting together a pretty cool PBP metric for them

Matt Schartz (sp?) is an interesting economist guy

curiously, both Colin and Matt had previously published pretty cogent criticisms of BP re: VORP, DTs, aspects of PECOTA, and some of Kahrl’s comments, so, cynically, one could say they’re silencing their critics by hiring them. Or maybe they’re just getting better…

Are you a fantasy guy? I need advice on data sources for 5×5, as I’m tired of getting my ass kciked.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks

I am not much of a fantasy guy. I play in one league mainly as a reason to see some of the guys with whom I used to drink beer before we had kids. I mainly just update my prior year’s cheat sheet based on the new round of projections and call it a day. The guys in the league who use the special software tend to get their asses kicked because they end up going after the same players. My only advice would be to avoid the Langerhans of the world because the divide between what works in fantasy and what works in real baseball is pretty huge.

Fangraphs could make some money if they came out with a product (although I would guess that would create the same problems as starting the whole thing as a pay site).

by Gopherballs on Feb 3, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

the fantasy vs. reality thing I know

it’s one of the things I like about fantasy, but that’s another essay

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 3, 2010 6:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Dayton's organizational philosophy

Seems to be getting a seat at the cool kids’ table at lunch.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 3, 2010 1:22 PM EST reply actions  

'80s references

always get a rec.

Hey, can I change my screen name to "CentralChamps20??"?

by CentralChamps2009 on Feb 3, 2010 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Feb 3, 2010 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

and if you're listening to someone else's Yes Men

then you might get the same impression

Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 3, 2010 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree!

Will Ebners Hit Parade, Pain TV; Channel 32; All the time! (PDT)

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Feb 3, 2010 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Indubitably!

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 3, 2010 5:43 PM EST up reply actions  

That's the greatest post...

in the history of whatever!!!

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 3, 2010 5:48 PM EST up reply actions  

my you look lovely today Mrs. Cleaver!

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Feb 4, 2010 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Has anyone read through the comments over there?

Since when did Rany’s blog start featuring KC Star commenters?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

by Warden11 on Feb 4, 2010 10:19 PM EST reply actions  

Jin

I am not sure where or how people started thinking Jin was the stat guy. Jin handles arbitration, visa’s etc. He works closely with Dean Taylor

Matt Olkin is no longer used by the club. I have a feeling I know who the “stat” guy is … I appreciate devil giving Jin the benefit of the doubt because I vouched for him…But, he really is a solid guy..however, he is not the stat guy you think he is….Not, that he does not know the game..he does, he played college ball but he is not the now infamous stat guy we (the Royals) don’t talk about

I have asked on several occasions why don’t you just say who it is…and it really almost has become a running joke…i kind of find it quite humorous now

by gregschaum on Feb 4, 2010 11:22 PM EST reply actions  

The Royals don't want to lose their competitive advantage!!

The other GMs would just go buy a Magic 8 Ball as well!!

by AxDxMx on Feb 5, 2010 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

(shhhaaake)

    Reply
 fuzzy. Ask
again later.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Feb 5, 2010 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

It's local boy Bill James

The consulting agreement contains a confidentiality provision at James’s insistence, partly because he is embarrassed by the association, partly because the front office ignores his work.

by Gopherballs on Feb 5, 2010 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I can totally see Dayton Moore buying into Win Shares and Basic Runs Created

Total Bases = Mike Jacobs = Wins!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 5, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Everytime I read that quote at the top of the story I always thought I was being reminded of something similar that I couldn't remember

And I finally remembered what it was. It was comments made by Bill Bavasi after the Mariners collapsed following the Bédard trade.

From Geoff Baker’s Seattle Times Mariners Blog for May 24, 2008:

"This is not a field managerial issue,‘’ he said. "John is doing a good job. Our performance is not related to his work. It’s purely related to player performance and underperformance and underachievement. Nobody had the nerve to pick us less than second place in our division. We were picked anything from first to second to wild-card. You name it. The expectations were a heck of a lot higher than this, based on any analysts’ evaluation of out players’ individual track records and their age. Their ages are such that they’re not all young guys that they’re inexperienced. But they’re not too old to believe that they would backslide. So, I think those expectations are realistic. They were and they are.‘’

Dave Cameron’s eloquent response:
My official prediction: 83-79, one game better than Texas, nowhere close to the playoffs.

PECOTA projections: 76-86, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.

ZIPS projections: 72-90, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs

CHONE projections: 83-79, nowhere close to the playoffs

Hardball Times projections: 79-83, third place, nowhere close to the playoffs.

Lots of people had "the nerve" to tell you that you did a horrible job building this roster, Bill. Lots of people pointed out that this team wasn’t a contender. Lots of people told you that you that you had a roster setup for failure, with collapse potential everywhere. You just don’t listen to those people, because they’re nerds with computers who don’t understand baseball. Or something.

But you don’t get to rewrite history. We knew this team wasn’t good, and we spent the entire offseason trying to tell you that. You ignored us at your own peril, and you built a terrible baseball team for $117 million. That’s your fault.

And now, rather than learning from your mistakes, admitting that you have absolutely no idea how to evaluate pitching talent, you’re completely ignorant of how to value defense, you don’t know what kinds of hitters work in your own park, and realizing that there’s an entire school of analysis that could help improve the decision making of the club, you’re once again focusing on things like clubhouse leadership and character.

This is ridiculous. Build a good baseball team, and you won’t have to talk about all this psycho babble crap that you guys invent to try to justify your horrible decisions. Learn more about baseball than a blogger who lives 2,500 miles from Safeco Field and covers the team as a freaking hobby. I shouldn’t know more about how to build a baseball team than you, but I do, and that’s why you and your entire staff deserve to be fired.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 8, 2010 2:29 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Sorry for the coding screwup.

For some reason the close quote tag didn’t wrap the entire selection from Dave Cameron. Everything below the USSM link is Dave’s content, not mine.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 8, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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