Looking Back at the Top Royals Prospects for 2005
In 2004 Baseball America rated Billy Butler as the top prospect in the Royal system. Nice call. Butler has developed into a nice young hitter for the Royals, and still appears to have room to grow. (It's weird that no one ever talks about how Dayton Moore and his men told the Royals to take Butler, even though they weren't yet in place in KC.)
Baseball America (nor likely anyone else) thought the Royals had a strong system heading into 2005. BA had the Royals as the 28th best system in the game. And this low standing is reflected in the list below. Back in the winter of 2004, the Royal system had been recently restocked by Allaird Baird, and new faces dominated the top of the system. In a way, this shows how Baird had done some recent good work, but it also speaks to the failure (and a few graduations, like Greinke and DeJesus) of earlier years.
Here's how the rest of the BA Top 10 list rounded out:
- #2 - Denny Bautista (P): Bautista came to the Royal system in a June 2004, trade from Baltimore for Jason Grimsley. This was considered a nice trade for the Royals at the time, and in fact I can still remember the day this trade went down. This was, I believe, the period when Baird was starting to appear somewhat decent as a GM to guys like Neyer. Heck, Baseball Blanking America had him as the second best prospect in the system. According to BA Bautista had the best fastball, the best curve, and the best slider in the system. The Orioles were 28-37 when the trade went down, so I'm not sure why they wanted Jason Grimsley. Bauista had already bounced around a few systems, and wouldn't last long as a Royal. Over three seasons (2004-6) Bautista made 19 starts as a Royal and posted a 5.95 ERA. New GM Dayton Moore sent him to Colorado in the Affeldt/Shealy trade, which means Bautista was twice part of a deal that Royals fans were pretty happy about. And wrong both times. Dude is still around, or will be, I believe. He spent last season pitching for the Pirates' AAA team, but is has been a reliever for years now.
The point here isn't an easy agnosticism about minor league rankings and it isn't to jeer at Baseball America. Mainly, this list gives us a decent snapshot of a now long-gone era and, I believe, a little bit of perspective. Mostly, it's just interesting to look back.
However, and perhaps I've made this point a few times too many, but we need to move past the notion that Dayton Moore inherited so little that he needs six years just to have a good team at AA. Because really, that wasn't the case in 2006. The system was poor and the Royals were bad. Allard deserved to be fired. But Dayton didn't take over the worst organization at any point in the history of baseball whatever.
In a limited way, you can actually see how the system of this era was actually close to working out. At least according to the limited plan in place. The Royals had graduated Greinke, and had an elite hitter in place in Butler. To supplement those two All-Star level talents, the Royals had a number of low-risk/low-upside/not-terrible college draftees who might reasonably provide adequate if unspectacular talent in a few years. It wasn't a bad starting point for a system. Only, the Royals seemed to take the "college guys will be ready sooner" concept too far and appeared to sour on a number of these players when they struggled in 2005 or 2006.
Between bad luck, bad development and in some cases just bad thinking, the Royals didn't produce a single OF/DH out of the Costa/Maier/Lubanski/Huber mix. Not one. At least not in their minds.
Nevertheless, like a chubby Venus emerging out of a sea of bad picks, there was Billy Butler.
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Comments
Oh, and on which side did you come down on the Murphy vs. Gotay debate?
I was solidly in the Gotay camp. Of course, when they were both dumped to make room for Keppinger, it made it a
moot point.
The inexplicable jettisoning of Keppinger less than a year later made the point even mooter.
Gotay forever!
Although Murph tore it up for my DMB team one year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Are the guys we have now any better?
That’s the real question. I guess our pitchers look better and we have a C and SS in the top ten…
i think the guys we have now at the top are probably better
or thought of as better, right now
but some of tehse dudes also appeared on top 100 lists a few times
by Will McDonald on Feb 7, 2010 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
I make this point a little later on in the thread, but around this period
We had “The future of pitching”, “The next George Brett”/“#2 prospect in all of baseball”, and a doughboy who might be the best hitting prospect in the game. Did they all turn out? Yes after a winding path, not even close but might be salvageable, and a decent chance at being excellent.
Right now, I feel like we have a lot of complimentary pieces in the system- like the next Casey Kotchman, Melvin Mora, and John Garland- players who will either be wildly erratic or solidly pedestrian.
We’ve been woefully bereft of the latter for quite a long time now but you need both to be successful and I’m just not seeing them in the system.
yea...
teh royal system hasn’t been THAT terrible over the last decade
there’s been no depth, but even after the Beltran days, it produced DDJ (solid, 10 year career likely) Greinke and Butler
with gordon likely to bounce back and be solid
you can do worse
by Will McDonald on Feb 7, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think the telling thing
Is how many of those 2005 guys we guys we got from other organizations. That tarnishes your image as a prospect a bit when a team gives up on you.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Reading this sorta makes me sad
I just realized I feel the same way about Montgomery that I did about Bautista (that is, I can’t say I’m higher on Monty now than I was on Bautista then). I actually felt better about Huber than I do now about Moose. Murphy=Bianchi. Lubanski=Hosmer. We do have a few more arms in the pile this time around though, with Arguelles and Duffy. But this is a good exercise for, as you say, maintaining perspective.
by jackie ballgame on Feb 7, 2010 10:57 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
I'd rec this but I'm on my phone and can't
I think this is also very important to keep in mind for a couple of reasons. And not just to depress us but, like you said, to maintain some perspective.
It’s also the same reason I cringe whenever I see people say things like “trade everyone we have of value (aka everyone fun to watch) for whatever middling prospects we can get”. I enjoy watchin Gil pitch and DDJ hit. And to just trade them for 10c on the dollar because we might get prospects and might be able to compete with unprojectable players 3 years from now seems absurd to me.
I forget who said it but I’ve seen it quoted here quite a few times, something to the effect of “every team has prospects”. Frankly, I feel less optimistic about a core of Hosmer + Moose + pitching than I did about Butler + Gordon + Greinke. So I’m not in a hurry to jettison this core and move onto the next one just because the next one might be better.
I know the team is bad but I’m not super-optimistic about the future team either. But right now I feel like I keep watching this twisted idea that time fixes everything so let’s just sim ahead a couple of seasons and see where the team is. It’s almost like this an alternate universe version of those college sports fans who get really excited about every recruiting class but are so busy watching next year’s class that they don’t enjoy the good this year’s team is doing on the field. Just tossing away what little of a base we have for other teams’ scraps seems shortsighted, at best.
by sterlingice on Feb 7, 2010 4:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't know
that anyone is saying that the Royals should jettison the core. I don’t think anyone wants to see Greinke or Butler gone. They both seem to be cornerstones. Gordon’s value is so low right now that the Royals have no choice but to see what happens with him in 2010. I think the only ones we see mentioned as trade bait are guys like Joakim Soria, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Alberto Callaspo.
Now the only reason Soria’s name is bandied about is because he could yield a lot in return and people are of the opinion (correct or not) that a team this bad (and I think we’re all probably ballparking the win total at about 70 games for this season) doesn’t need a top-flight closer.
Meche and Banny are in the “trade them” conversation because they’d be of value to teams in contention and could net something that could be of worth in the very near future.
Callaspo is a man without a position on the field. We all like to think that he might work out at third or left or right or some slightly less vital defensive position than second base, but realistically that probably won’t happen. His bat is great, but the sudden power surge is worrisome and Bert’s value is probably at an all-time high. With the addition of Getz, who at the very least should be playable at second, Callaspo could net something Major League-ready.
And no one on these boards is saying anything about 10 cents on the dollar. We all want fair market value. And most of us are clamoring for upper-level talent, not prospects in the low minors.
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 7, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with all of this
Callaspo has got to go.
We don’t need what is merely a good bat (and nothing more) this year. If we were honestly capable of contending, then yes, keep him around and try to fit him in the lineup 4 out of 5 games.
We need to trade him for some quality AA/AAA infielder that is no more than a year away.
I Just Don't
Think we’d get much for him.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 9, 2010 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
More to the point
I am fairly certain GMDM spent the first half of the off-season desperately looking for a reasonable way to unload Callaspo, but couldn’t get a viable enough deal done. It has not escaped my notice that we had to get into January before hearing management start talking about AC as if he might be a key part of the lineup this year.
This space for rent.
Edit
But Dayton didn’t take over the worst organization at any point in the history of baseball ever.
I think you mean:
But Dayton didn’t take over the worst organization at any point in the history of whatever.
by hippdoghipp on Feb 7, 2010 12:00 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
figures someone would've beat me to it
That’s what I get for not reading all the comments first…
Obviously, you are not a golfer.
Am I the only one...
who loves this website more than the team? It’s a pretty astounding accomplishment that this website has my attention every day during what has to be the most depressing off-season in team history. I just want one pennant drive. One.
Actually, I think the intelligence of the die hard Royals fan is what keeps this thing going.
It’s really complicated to explain, but the quality of writers and thinkers linked to the Royals (JoePos and Rany, for example) keep the interest of smart people who are into baseball (like the people on this site), which, I believe, has a trickle down effect on the casual fan.
I know that sounds crazy, and this sounds even crazier, but if the Royals lose the interest Posnanski and a few other uber-talented journalists, I don’t know that the Royals would be able to recover.
Totally crazy, I know.
I made a comment late last season...
that there seems to be a very high ratio of followers with a masters degree (or at least in my case working on a masters degree) compared to some of the other mouthbreather sites
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 9, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
i've got a PhD
Pimpin’
Hos
Daily
/KC-STAR COMMENTER
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "In the game of chess you can never let your opponent see your pieces"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Feb 9, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
as corny as that is, Im probably gonna steal that
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 9, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
HS Diploma Here
But I was always in the 99.99th percentile on standardized tests.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 9, 2010 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't realize that Pangea had standardized testing
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 9, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They Called It
The Stanford Achievement Test. I have no idea if it’s still in use.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Feb 10, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
comment
- (It’s weird that no one ever talks about how Dayton Moore and his men told the Royals to take Butler, even though they weren’t yet in place in KC.)*
I believe Moore advised Baird on Greinke too. Moore was there with Hawk Harrelson watching the Apopka Blue Darts (drink for every Blue Dart reference Hawk makes during a Greinke start…)
How many cars did Howell jump over
for the Rays?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Feb 7, 2010 3:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Answer:
Seven.
More importantly, how many Japanese starting pitchers did he jump over on the first base line on the way to a preseason infield single.
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 7, 2010 10:43 PM EST up reply actions
this made me laugh a lot
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 9, 2010 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
But Dayton didn't take over the worst organization at any point in the history of baseball ever.
In the history of WHATever, sir.
Obviously, you are not a golfer.
second comment about this
I guess I will change it
I see what people are saying, but I was trying to make a purposefully incorrect extreme statement
by Will McDonald on Feb 7, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
We know what you were doing
But it was too hard to resist making that joke.
by hippdoghipp on Feb 7, 2010 7:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
For those who remember the rankings,
were Butler and Gordon higher ranked/respected as prospects than Moustakas/Hosmer?
Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed
Well,
Moustakas was ranked 18th overall in 2008 and 13th in 2009. Hosmer was 24th in 2009.
Gordon was 13th in 2006. Butler was 29th in 2006. Gordon was 2nd in 2007 (behind only Diasuke). Butler was 25th.
I hesitate to compare too much until Moustakas and Hosmer are in Double-A, as it feels like the further along the prospects are in the minors the more the rankings mean something going forward.
by Old Man Duggan on Feb 7, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
a cautionary tale to be sure
until these guys actually produce something, it’s just talk. i do think however that the system is in much better shape than 5 years ago.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Feb 7, 2010 10:57 PM EST reply actions
The Royals organization is ranked much higher now then in 2005.
It’s because we have a lot more players that could make an impact then the list from 2005. It is not even close. We may well be in the top 5 next year as far as prospects with another good draft. You can’t discount the prospects we have just because they are mostly pitchers. The 2005 Royals was really bad in terms of prospects and now it is pretty good, that is not about the same.
Go Royals!
yes
the system is much better overall right now, part of what is going on with this list from 2005 is that there were basically no holdovers left than anyone liked, so the top 10 was all new guys, many of them extremely recent draft picks with no track record and all potential
which is like today
but ultimately, i’d rather have a really thin weak system that produces one Gordon Beckham than having 5 guys in AA and below who BA likes
by Will McDonald on Feb 7, 2010 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
To state the obvious...
We all know that the Royals could have selected Gordon Beckham. They chose Eric Hosmer instead. Eric Hosmer is struggling in high A. Yuniesky Betancourt is playing shortstop for the Royals. And the Royals gave up two pitching prospects to get him.
Now Dayton Moore says he’s leaning more toward drafting college players. Does it occur to anyone else that his draft strategy is part of “The Process”? For the first two years, you choose high school players with high upsides. Then for the next two years, you choose college players. Rinse and Repeat. In theory, all of your players make it to the majors at the same time, and you have a core of young players that you can control for five years or so.
If this works, you look like a genius. If it doesn’t, well, hey, you’re a small market franchise and you can’t afford to sign free agents so you can’t compete.
The business school profs had a name for something like this. “Negative expected value investment”, or something like that. Kind of like paying the lottery. You do this on the chance that it might somehow deliver the positive NPV that saves your rear end, knowing that the chances of that aren’t good.
We’ll see how all of this works out in the end. I am a lot more concerned with seeing a decent team on the field than I an in seeing Dayton Moore get credit for it. Somehow I don’t think the Royals front office shares that sentiment. I no longer live in Missouri, but you are still going to have to “show me”.
Considering it's much easier to project position players than TNSTAAPPs
I worry when we get all excited about our prospects when almost all are on the pitching side
It's more like being excited about the chance of being excited
after this year.
Go Royals!
Pitching is the currency of baseball...
…and you use to to acquire the likes of Joey Gathright, Mike Jacobs, and Yuniesky Betancourt.
Trust The Process.
It also helps that since the Royals have spent more in the draft that they have gotten better talent...
Since more money equals better players.
Pitchers and Catchers report February 17th... And so begins my masochistic addiction.
by averagegatsby on Feb 9, 2010 1:20 AM EST up reply actions
FWIW
CHONE projects Denny Bautista to be very solid as a reliever this year. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see him rack up 20 saves for some crappy team someday.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Gotay
looks useful, too. He’s in STL right now, and CHONE projects him for
.248..358/.374, slightly below MLB average, with slighty below average defense at 3B. Probably about 1.8 WAR over a full season, according to those projections.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Feb 8, 2010 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
off-topic but, man oh man, fangraphs now has splits
I am glad to see your addition to the staff is paying off handsomely.
Nice write up
It also makes the point that one problem with Top 10 Lists is that you have come up with 10 players even if they would not make another team’s list. For example, newly drafted Butler might have been the 4th to 6th best prospect on the Red Sox’s 2004 list (after Hanley Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester, pre-injury Anibal Sanchez, and Dustin Pedroia), and I am not sure Bautista would have edged out Abe Alvarez or Manny Delcarmen in the 9th and 10th slots.
No kidding
Which makes me wonder how our current top ten stacks up. I’m so far inside the Royals bubble I have no objective idea.
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