2010 Player Projections - Rick Ankiel
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 1, 2010 10:38 PM EST
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Well it is time for another player projection. This time for the one of the new guys on the team, Rick Ankiel.
| Standard Projections | ||||||||||||
| Season | Type | G | PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | SB | AVG |
| 2010 | Bill James | 118 | 404 | 95 | 57 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 29 | 87 | 3 | 0.253 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 130 | 473 | 106 | 63 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 31 | 114 | 3 | 0.242 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 448 | 102 | 61 | 21 | 2 | 18 | 36 | 99 | 4 | 0.252 | |
| 2010 | All Fans (43) | 120 | 493 | 117 | 71 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 36 | 116 | 6 | 0.256 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (28) | 125 | 517 | 124 | 77 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 120 | 5 | 0.259 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (14) | 109 | 442 | 103 | 60 | 22 | 2 | 20 | 32 | 108 | 6 | 0.251 |
| Advanced Projections | ||||||||||
| Season | Type | BB% | K% | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | wRC | wOBA |
| 2010 | Bill James | 7.20% | 23.20% | 0.310 | 0.453 | 0.763 | 0.200 | 0.285 | 48.4 | 0.329 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 6.60% | 26.00% | 0.298 | 0.436 | 0.734 | 0.194 | 0.283 | 52.7 | 0.318 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 8.00% | 24.50% | 0.315 | 0.448 | 0.763 | 0.196 | 0.289 | 53.5 | 0.328 |
| 2010 | All Fans (43) | 7.30% | 25.40% | 0.315 | 0.448 | 0.763 | 0.192 | 0.299 | 59.8 | 0.329 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (28) | 7.40% | 25.10% | 0.317 | 0.447 | 0.764 | 0.188 | 0.300 | 62.8 | 0.329 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (14) | 7.20% | 26.30% | 0.310 | 0.456 | 0.766 | 0.205 | 0.296 | 53.4 | 0.329 |
| Value Projections | |||||||
| Season | Type | Batting | Fielding | Replacement | Positional | RAR | WAR |
| 2010 | All Fans (43) | 0.1 | 1.2 | 16.4 | -2.5 | 15.2 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (28) | 0.3 | 1 | 17.2 | -3.2 | 15.3 | 1.5 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (14) | -0.1 | 1.9 | 14.7 | -1.7 | 14.9 | 1.5 |
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interesting
they all are about the same…i would hope for a little more power, but he has guillen beat by a mile.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Mar 1, 2010 10:40 PM EST reply actions
Rates might be right, but 130 games played with the Royals training and medical staff.
I am betting the over under on games played at 90.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
Keep in mind
it’s the Royals, so he might be hurt, but still play 120 games anyway
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 1, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
c'mon
he's not as tough as Jose Guillen!
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2010 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
He's going from
one of the best strategic managers in baseball to a guy who thinks that Ankiel hits the same vs LHP as he does against RHP.
He’s going to decline purely because Hillman will play him against too many LHP, and probably put him in the middle of the order during his slumps.
But then again, it shows up the GM if you split time for two of his acquisitions (Ankiel and Fields). Even if having Ankiel CF, Podsednik LF, Fields bench vs RHP and Podsednik CF, Fields LF, Ankiel bench vs LHP makes sense and wins games, Trey won’t do it.
Bloomquist might have more games in CF than Podsednik with how Trey operates.
Ankiel will either have a surprisingly good year, or be the 2010 Jacobs.
Ralph Wiggum would be a better GM than Dayton Moore
only making
less money
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
I Voted Better
But it’ll be marginal at best; same+.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
I voted same
This guy’s not going to improve much, if at all. But maybe he won’t be part of the black hole of suckery that Guillén and Yuni are going to be.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
ankiels arm alone
raises his defense
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
One tool cowboys...
Trey’s Ranch Style.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
same
He won’t make it a full year here playing cf everyday.. I expect the CHONE to be pretty similar… Not exactly a well rounded player, but I suppose I’d take him over what we had last year. (post crisp injury)
I hope he makes it every day and I hope he proves me wrong.
I don’t think he can put up 20 HRs at the K. If he’s hot, he’ll have no protection in the lineup and I don’t think he has the patience to keep from getting himself out.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
agreed, but I voted "same"
he can’t hit 20 HRs, but he can keep a high slug with lots of doubles.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
interesting
At the risk of skewing the sample, I bet we’ll see a pattern as we go through these votes. I’m thinking we’ll see people mostly voting ‘better’ for guys who came up with the Royals—non-DM acquisitions—and we’ll see people decidedly less optimistic about the recent DM acquisitions like Ankiel, Podsednick, Kendall and Anderson. The CHONE projections obviously aren’t skewed one way or another with regard to DM-acquisition or not, so if it plays out the way I’m predicting, it will tell us something about the psychology of the readership here.
I can't wait for all votes to get done
Also, I would like to see if the fans here and at Fangraphs are more or less optimistic for each player looked at.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 2, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
I think people are more likely to vote
“same” or “worse” for the DM-acquisitions because they have all largely been guys who are 30+, and, despite Dayton’s fervent hopes, do NOT, in fact, have much of a chance to improve at this stage of their careers. It’s easier to see a younger player (i.e. Gordon, Butler, etc.), who hasn’t reached the typical peak age, performing better than a projection.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 2, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
When you do the voting lines at the bottom
can you include OBP in the slash stats? I know I can look up to the Marcel projection or calculate that .734 minus .438 is .298, but I’d rather not have to.
Sorry, that was a mess up.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 2, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping for Bill James's projection
A little better production with a little less playing time. That sounds perfect.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 2, 2010 1:27 PM EST reply actions
As the late devil_fingers pointed out
Ankiel is basically Mike Jacobs with defensive value.
Still, I surprised myself and took the over, but not by much (i.e., the Bill James line).
From beyond the grave
I’m rethinking the comparison — while the three slash is Jacobs-esque, as a player, he might more closely resemble Miguel Olivo. Ankiel’s propensity for swinging at pitches out of the zone is closer to Olivo than to Jacobs (!), and, like Olivo, he sort of has a good defensive reputation based on a strong throwing arm that might lead superficial observers to overlook the fact that he is defensively deficient, overall.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 2, 2010 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Olivo with double the walk rate
How about “basically pre-2009 Mike Jacobs”?
Ankiel is obviously miscast as a CF, but in a corner, wouldn’t he project to be somewhere between 0 to +5 runs? His UZR range only numbers have been positive in the corner spots. Even league average defense at a corner has value.
oh yeah, some value
And even at -8 (or whatever) defense, Olivo had value at catcher.
Let me look at my spreadhseet… FWIW, I have Ankiel as a 4 position neutral outfielder - so -7 CF +3 RF/LF sounds about right… so yeah, 0 to +5. Not sure if my projections are that great, but they do incorporate all the OF positions and speed score.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 2, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Stupid crossout!!
/Matt Klaassen, nee devil_fingers
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 2, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
the crossout cares not whether
you are dead or alive
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 2, 2010 5:33 PM EST up reply actions
That was my first thought and went over to b-r to compare basic stats
Yeah, he’s Mike Jacobs + defense
I heard on the radio yesterday he is doing something " unorthodox" with his swing
Seitzer said he was taking a new approach with his swing that he called " unorthodox". Somehow this does not fill me with anticipation for his performance this season.
2 HR today in Spring Training...Obviously he is about to bust out and
become KCs first 40 HR slugger.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Not so fast, my friend.
He won’t if I have anything to say about it.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 2, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
There are conflicting reports
It’s either Balboni…or Jackie Ballgame.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 2, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I wouldn't mind too much if he puts up that line
I think he’ll do about that, maybe marginally better. I guess I’d be another “Same+” vote. But yeah, he’s just OK as an everyday player. He’ll probably make a couple of sweet throws from the track, hit a few game-changing HRs, but be largely inconsistent. It’s kind of sad, but I don’t mind his ML-averageness because ML average players are better than a lot of what is on this team. We could have had a cheaper 1.5 or so CF with Maier, but we don’t like spending money wisely for some reason.
At the very least, he provides a little bit of personality to the team with his crazy arm, random power, and weird backstory.
Whoops
The 1.5 CF comment is in regards to Maier’s likely WAR. Forgot to put that in there.
by Soria's Unibrow on Mar 2, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions
What did Fescoe say this morning?
Not that I want to admit to listening to Fescoe’s morning show, but on the drive in he said the way Ankiel spoke with the media after yesterday’s scrimmage led him to believe Ankiel is a (and I quote) “D-Bag”. Anyone hear why? I made it to work before I heard what Ankiel said.
My guess on Ankiel
Assuming 500 healthy PA
460 AB
118 H (.257)
40 BB (.316 OBP)
120 K
70 R
30 2B
2 3B
20 HR (.461 SLG)
70 RBI
4 SB: 3CS
good defensive CF
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