Royals UZR/150 Projections for the 2010 Season
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 1:58 AM EST
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintEarlier this year I released my own set of UZR/150 projections. Now that the Royals have finally set on the basics of a roster, let's look at how the players project to do defensively this season. Here is a list of how each player projects to do at each position they have played previously over the last 4 years (link to a primer article on UZR):
| Name | Position | Games at Position (last 4 years) | UZR/150 |
| Alex Gordon | 1B | 32 | 1 |
| Billy Butler | 1B | 192 | -4 |
| Willie Bloomquist | 2B | 56 | -2 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 2B | 205 | -3 |
| Chris Getz | 2B | 113 | -4 |
| Mike Aviles | SS | 125 | 6 |
| Alberto Callaspo | SS | 32 | 1 |
| Willie Bloomquist | SS | 87 | -4 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | SS | 595 | -10 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 3B | 35 | 2 |
| Alex Gordon | 3B | 319 | -1 |
| Mike Aviles | 3B | 9 | -2 |
| Josh Fields | 3B | 146 | -8 |
| David DeJesus | LF | 283 | 11 |
| Rick Ankiel | LF | 44 | 3 |
| Willie Bloomquist | LF | 33 | 2 |
| Scott Podsednik | LF | 277 | -2 |
| Josh Fields | LF | 22 | -2 |
| Billy Butler | LF | 6 | -2 |
| Alberto Callaspo | LF | 6 | -3 |
| Jose Guillen | LF | 49 | -5 |
| Brian Anderson | CF | 298 | 0 |
| David DeJesus | CF | 288 | 0 |
| Scott Podsednik | CF | 88 | -3 |
| Rick Ankiel | CF | 177 | -5 |
| Willie Bloomquist | CF | 100 | -5 |
| Willie Bloomquist | RF | 90 | -1 |
| David DeJesus | RF | 26 | -3 |
| Jose Guillen | RF | 350 | -11 |
Using the lineup of: Butler (1B), Callaspo (2B), Betancout (SS), Gordon (3B), Ankiel (RF), Podsednik (CF) and DeJesus (LF) here is the projected defense:
With Gordon out and Callaspo going to 3rd and Getz to 2B, looks like the defensive may improve. I might do more of these graphs depending on what kind of lineup Hillman and Moore continue to think up.
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I'm not gonna do the math, but I assume all those numbers add up to an overall positive for Bloomquist, right?
I’m still busy trying to calculate our “runs created” numbers. I lost all my initial spreadhseets.
Keep in mind
that it’s a very small sample at 3B, and his 2B projection needs to be taken into account (although it’s not straightforward) when figuring out exactly how good he’d be at 3B
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Wow...this is pathetic...
Anyone with any questions left about Treyton’s intelligence just needs to look at this:
Projected lineup(from comments by Trey)
Pod: 2 in LF 4 2b
DDJ: -3 in RF
Anky: -5 in CF
Gordon: -1 3b
YuButt: -10 SS
Getz:
Butler: -4 1B
For a whooping total of -29…more than -4 PER POSITION.
Even sadder is that an optimized lineup of
Pod: -3 in CF
DDJ: 11 in LF
Anky: 3 in RF
Gordon: -1 3b
Aviles: 6 SS
Callaspo: -3 2b
Butler: -4 1B
is worth +9.
Almost 4 wins difference, just from Trey filling out his lineup like a sane person.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
"Filling out his lineup like a sane person"
would not be filling out his lineup based on these projections. The sample sizes are small, the projections are very regressed to the mean due to the small samples sizes which washes away the differences between players, and the UZR statistic itself is far from perfect—maybe even far from good. Do we really think Callaspo is a better defensive second baseman than Getz? Do we think Callaspo is a better defensive second baseman than he is a shortstop?
Take these projections with a grain (or shaker) of salt. Dayton’s right—defensive metrics are still pretty bad.
In a few years, Hit f/x should come online, and defensive metrics should become MUCH more reliable.
by kcdc1 on Mar 10, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If Dayton had said that defensive metrics have limitations
he would have been okay
it’s pretty clear that he doesn’t believe in them at all, and that is really, really stupid on his part.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I’m thinking of one quote in particular where he laid out that their stats guys look at the defensive metrics, but they tell him that the stats are very inaccurate and misleading, so Moore goes mostly by the eyeball test. You’d like to see him put a little more stock in the stats, but this isn’t something I care about a whole lot because I don’t know how much more confidence I have in the defensive stats than Moore does. I’d say on the extreme cases, it’s probably a safe bet to say Yuni’s a bad shortstop, but I’m not so sure the defensive stats can pick out the smaller differences between players quite yet.
I think everyone agrees
that the “small differences” are beyond the purview of defensive stats, but if multiple different stats give a 10+ run difference between two players over a few hundred games, I’m willing to say that overules whatever Dayton Moore thinks.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
no
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
The Phillies don't believe in them at all and they seem to put out a decent defense.
The Royals suck, the Royals are built by scout data, therefore our scouts suck.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
I think that GM's who ignore any/all advanced defensive metrics are really stupid
In addition to tools-based scouting evaluations of defense, every front office should utilize one or more advanced defensive metrics. This can include UZR, RZR/OOZ, Dewan’s Plus/Minus, PMR or other proprietary metrics that I don’t even know about. These objective measures are far from perfect. But the subjective methods of evaluation are at least as flawed. I think a sound defensive evaluation must use both.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
One great source for fans in Tango's Fan Scouting report
http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=8
Crisp 4.00
Brian Anderson 3.90
Rick Ankiel 3.46
Mitch Maier 3.43
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
I thought Trey said
his outfield was going to be something like DDJ in RF, Ankiel in CF, and Psednik in LF or something equally ridiculous. Has that changed?
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Mar 10, 2010 8:29 AM EST reply actions
I hear and a see a new lineup everyday
If that is the case, they are putting the worst CFer in CF
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
I checked
For spring training, Ankiel has played CF exclusively. Podsednik has played LF exclusively. DDJ has played LF once (when Podsednik wasn’t in the lineup), RF twice, and DH once. It seems to me that that’s what they’re planning for.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Mar 10, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
With 2 Guillen starts in RF
That’s the same number as our projected starting RF has started out there. Hopefully they’re trying to show he’s healthy enough to play OF to get someone to bite on taking him on (with the Royals footing most of the bill) just to get him off the roster. But I’ve learned to never underestimate Treyton’s ability to make the worst decision possible.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
Hillman Has Plainly
Stated that he thinks SP in LF, Ankiel in CF and DDJ in RF is his preferred setup. That is probably the worst possible alignment. End of story.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions
A question about defensive projections
Your projections (and Matt Klaassen’s, FWIW) differ significantly in many cases from the CHONE defensive projections (both his original and his revised projections). What do you think is/are the source(s) of the difference? Are you using different UZR source data?
The immoderate moderator
chone is not using uzr
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
What does it use?
I know he uses TotalZone for the minors. Does he use it for MLB as well?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2010 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
The last I knew, it was total zone also in majors
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
That's unfortunate
TotalZone is, I suppose, the best we can currently do for the minors, but it is insufficient for the majors.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2010 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Replacing the Big Yunit with Avilés
gives you a swing of +16, no matter how Avilés hits. And whatever that is, it’ll be better than the Yunit. They are insane if they don’t give Avilés his job back as soon as he can play.
I don’t get the numbers on Callaspo: -3 at 2B, +1 at SS, and +2 at 3B. He’s a better fielder at short than at second? Then why isn’t he playing short instead of the Yunit?
Josh Fields should probably not play third base, which reduces his value to that of a replacement corner outfielder. At least he’s not as bad as Guillén, who can no longer play the field at all.
They ought to go with an outfield of Pods in left, DeJesus in center, and Ankiel in right. Not much point in having a great left fielder. A mediocre one will do if he can hit. Which Pods sort of did last year, but he’s not going to repeat that at age 34. They could have done so much better than Podsednik and Ankiel for less money. If Fields turns out to be a decent hitter, you could play him in left.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
I don’t get the numbers on Callaspo: -3 at 2B, +1 at SS, and +2 at 3B. He’s a better fielder at short than at second? Then why isn’t he playing short instead of the Yunit?
Jeff is just using the available data, and there isn’t much data on Callaspo at second base. I think it is safe to say that if he were given a few seasons at SS, you’d see much worse numbers than he has at second base.
Sample size is a caveat on all of these numbers. It is an inherent element in all defensive metrics. For instance, Jeff projects Butler as -2 in LF. But that is based on a regression of his very limited data there. I think it is pretty clear to everyone that if he were to play a lot in LF, we’d get a lot of data showing him to be a horrible defensive left fielder.
They ought to go with an outfield of Pods in left, DeJesus in center, and Ankiel in right
DeJesus in LF, Maier in CF and Ankiel in RF would be better.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 10, 2010 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to stop thinking about Maier
since the Royals have, but I just can’t. Yesterday, Maier had the same number of home runs as Ankiel and played better defense than either Ankiel or Podsednik.
Dear Treyton,
Mitch Maier is better than Scott Podsednik.
Sincerely,
Reason, Common Sense, and Those Stats You Don’t Understand
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
agreed
he’s been a nice, cheap, non-horrible option for a year
and since then they’ve brought in like 6 guys who are worse
At least he's trying
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
One main data point to look at is games at position
Callaspo has had 6 times as many games at 2B vice SS. His sample size is pretty small.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
Are there some rules of thumb
about the difference in defense for players (on average) moving from position X to position Y?
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Mar 10, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
Here are the values I calculated using 2002 to 2008 data
http://jeffsqanda.blogspot.com/2009/04/uzr-component-comparision.html
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
You're right, they are tiny sample sizes
at all positions. They point to Callaspo as a mediocre infielder, though, rather than a horrible one like the Yunit, and make me think he’s not a huge defensive hole at 2B. Let’s hope Avilés is back in playing shape so we won’t have one at SS, too.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
New nickname
Josh Fields Badly.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
What's the level of confidence in Aviles's SS rating?
How is his sample size at that position?
Not very good, but what little he did play 2 years ago was out this world.
A 15.6 UZR in 91 games for a 32 UZR/150 for the season.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
Where have you gone TPJ?
TPJ has left and gone away, hey hey hey.
by billexgordler on Mar 10, 2010 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
Shouldn't be "depressing," but is
Unless they decide to go with an 11-man bullpen, which they have not done in ages that I can remember, there is only room on this roster for only one of Fields, Aviles, and Anderson (I don’t think they appreciate Maier at all, so, even though Anderson has an option and Mitch doesn’t, it won’t be him). If its Aviles, then the backup outfielders will be Guillen and Bloomquist, because you just know that Betancourt, Guillen and St. Willie are making this team. For all the talk of competition, its just talk, because, barring injuries and regardless of spring training performance, this is your opening day position player roster:
1B: Butler
2B: Getz
SS: Bentancourt
3B: Gordon
C: Kendall
LF: Podsednik
CF: Ankiel
RF: DDJ
DH: Guillen
Bench
IF: Callaspo
UT: Bloomquist
C: Pena
Last spot: Aviles, Fields, or Anderson (sorry MITCH, you may be the second or third best OF in camp, but you were acquired by Allard Baird, and thus mean nothing to us—enjoy your new career as the next Matt Diaz).
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 10:43 AM EST reply actions
Is Aviles ready to go to start the year?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 10, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I think even if he is
they’ll stick him in Omaha to continue his rehab. Until he shows them that he can consistently make the long, deep throws he’ll need to at SS (and doesn’t have any pain or other problems).
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 10, 2010 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Anderson has an option, so bet on him being in AAA for depth.
Gordon and Aviles will start on the DL or rehab, Fields and Maier will make the team out of spring training.
Go Royals!
I wish I had that much faith
That they would esteem Maier enough to keep him and let Anderson go to AAA, but I don’t. Further, Gordon and Aviles will be back within a month. Do we assume enough others will be injured by then to allow both Fields and Maier to stay on the team? If you don’t, then I challenge anyone to figure whom out of the 12 I’ve listed above will be cut by this front office in order to keep Maier and Fields.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Butler, still can't turn the 3-6-3 DP
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
There are creative ways,
like having Aviles bounce up and down with a 5th starter like Blake Wood.
Go Royals!
Ummm
We’re the Royals, a team not used to creativity in almost any form (although last year’s three catcher experiment could be called “creative,” I guess).
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
That and the fact that it is not feasible under the applicable rules
A demoted players has to spend 10 days in the minors.
And it might be nice if Blake Wood succeeded in AA before giving him a rotation spot in the majors.
DYSON WILL EXPLODE!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Have to keep Guillen
there is, after all, a 0.1% chance that he plays well enough that the Royals can move him at the deadline for the next Paulo Orlando.
Speedy Brazilians Are
The new market inefficiency.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but the other team might also pick up
$50,000 of his remaining salary!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
Got to pay for the monthly staff pizza parties somehow
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Mar 10, 2010 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
All Ex-Mariner Position
Players must go.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 10, 2010 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
It's hard not to notice that giant red hole
at shortstop.
It’s a shame he has negative offensive value too.
Check out Two Out Rally, the new BASEBALL MMORPG, coming soon!
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is there an UZR projection in CF for Maier?
I’d just be interested in seeing what it would be. I assume it would be the friendliest defensive option we have in CF, although I know that the Royals have no concern with this fact.
Great, now Kansas City has TWO delusional GM's who think that contending in 2010 is still a possibility. Note to an NFL GM: if you win 2 games one year, dont expect signing four players whose ages sum to 141 and expect to make the playoffs the next year. Super reach for Tyson Jackson, huge contract to a QB who's still very much a question mark, questionable FA signing, why have we already given Pioli the benefit of the doubt? On the other hand, I have nothin to say about Dayton Moore, he's dead to me.
Not sure why I didn't include him. Here are is numbers:
Full Name Last Name First Name Position Games in Last 4 Years at Position UZR UZR/150
Mitch Maier Maier Mitch RF 42 0 -2
Mitch Maier Maier Mitch CF 118 0 -1
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 10, 2010 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
Which, thanks to jerking DDJ around and putting him in right
means that Maier in CF would have the best UZR on the team.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
There Is No
Doubt DDJ, Mitch and Ankiel is our best outfield, offensively and defensively.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Just defensively.
Callaspo, DDJ, Ankiel would be better offensively and most likely better overall.
Go Royals!
Oops! I forgot someone with a higher projection, best projected outfield would be..
Callaspo,DDJ,Costa
Go Royals!
What About Overall?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 12, 2010 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
mmm, I think
Callaspo,Mitch,DDJ
Go Royals!
So We Didn't
Need to do anything; thank you and good night! I demand a recount.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 12, 2010 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
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