Mike Aviles Makes Me Smile
by Will McDonald on Mar 10, 2010 10:21 PM EST
in News
91 comments
Yea, yea, Zack was Zack again. But damn, Mike Aviles went 2-3 today. I had no idea he'd be playing this early. So that is very cool. Its nice to feel encouraged about something, especially when its unexpected.
There's a non-horrible infield waiting for the Royals, when and if Aviles can return to full health. They've got to take off their stupid glasses and actually see it, but its there.
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Some possible non-stupid Royals IFs
In no particular order:
3B – Gordon, SS – Aviles, 2B – Getz, 1B – Butler
3B – Gordon, SS – Aviles, 2B – Callaspo, 1B – Butler
3B – Callaspo, SS – Aviles, 2B – Getz, 1B – Gordon (Butler at DH)
The immoderate moderator
the big key is having Aviles at SS
and I’m not holding my breath.
Formerly RoyalsFanInBillings
Follow me on twitter.com/MizzouCus
I prefer...
3B- Josh Fields, SS- YuBet, 2B- Getz, 1B- Anyone whose first name doesn’t rhyme with “Gila”
The First Option
Is the best for defense, and it’s better offensively than the status quo. If Aviles is really back, Yu-Bet has no role on this team. Callaspo needs to get a shot in LF, ands Poddy needs to take the stage coach wherever with Yu-Bet. Flying pigs will blacken the sky when this happens.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Will
what are your odds that the Royals just bury Aviles in Omaha?
I fear we’ll have to wait an play a game where we have to see Getz and Yu-Bet perform terribly for a decent period before Aviles gets another shot.
what are the options for everyone involved again?
I believe Getz and Aviles has options, but I’m not sure…if that’s the case, I can see them giving YuBet the SS job and having Getz and Callaspo battle for 2B, with the loser heading to Omaha.
Also, just to throw this out there, but with as bad as Callaspo was at 2B, would he be much better at 3B? Or have they ever considered sliding Betancourt to 2B since he can’t handle SS?
Formerly RoyalsFanInBillings
Follow me on twitter.com/MizzouCus
YBJ would still be terrible at 2B
and I’m not sure if the switch would suddenly enable him to hit, either
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 10, 2010 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
oh, I don't see that curing his offensive issues
more along the lines of “we know YuBet is going to play, so where does he hurt the royals the least”. Does his glove play better at 2B than SS, and if so, does the defensive improvement and lack of offense give a net value greater than Callaspo (good bat, bad glove)?
Counting on you stat nerds to find the answer for me, of course…;)
Formerly RoyalsFanInBillings
Follow me on twitter.com/MizzouCus
I gotta plead ignorance at this point
I have no idea on how healthy Aviles is, or when, or whatthe royals will do
but burying is possible
by Will McDonald on Mar 10, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yu-Bet, Bloomers And
Hoagy all need to be let out of the car around Grass Creek.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
That would never happen
Sincerely,
Dayton Moore circa 2008, waiting to replace TPJ until nearly the AS break
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Four bench spots
When Gordon is healthy, let’s say the starting IF is Gordon-Aviles-Getz-Butler. And let’s further say the starting OF is Pods-Ankiel-DeJesus. Where does that leave the four bench spots
C – Pena (a lock – have to have a backup catcher)
UI – Callaspo (a lock, unless traded)
UO – Maier or Anderson
U – Bloomquist (seems likely as he has a guaranteed MLB contract and he can play both IF and OF)
This would leave Aviles in Omaha unless and until injuries open up a spot for him (beyond Gordon’s likely short delay in starting the season) or Moore realizes that Yuni should be demoted to AAA.
The immoderate moderator
Fields also out of options
so that makes Teahen-for-Getz a straight up trade, and since we kicked in half the cash, a loser.
Now, if Getz can play passable SS, Aviles at SS and Callaspo at 2B with Getz as the UI makes me feal a whole lot better. That also requires Moore sending Betancourt to Omaha (he’ll clear waivers without a doubt)
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 11:40 PM EST up reply actions
basically a salary dump trade
with no salary dumped
by Will McDonald on Mar 10, 2010 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
It's a salary dump trade if the Royals dumped him and got nothing in return (except for dumping the salary)
Do you think the Royals got nothing of value for Teahen?
It’s amazing how quickly the revisions of history begin.
The immoderate moderator
see below
we got Chris Getz, I have no idea what he is as a player
time will tell
by Will McDonald on Mar 10, 2010 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Fixed...
Time wil tell
I love this time of year.... The Royals are always in first place!!!
by averagegatsby on Mar 11, 2010 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Completely disagree about the Teahen trade
so that makes Teahen-for-Getz a straight up trade, and since we kicked in half the cash, a loser.
I don’t agree. Getz was the real get in that trade for the Royals. Fields was more of a throw-in (questionable bat and no defense). And we don’t know that Fields will be gone. He might clear waivers and then be assigned to Omaha. But if Getz is all we get, that’s a decent take for Teahen. Teahen’s a pretty good utility guy. But he’s getting expensive, and the Royals were about to be out of team control years for him. So they could either spend millions on him and then lose him, gaining nothing. Or they could trade him now for a younger, cheaper player with upside and save some money, even by kicking in some money. So that doesn’t look like a loser to me. Of course Getz might pan out or not. That’s what happens when you get a young player with upside. Sometimes the blossom; sometimes they don’t.
The immoderate moderator
the thing is
who the hell knows about Getz? I see how its a good idea, but I just don’t trust Dayton’s eye at this point.
For Teahen + cash, I would have wanted more. The White Sox fans don’t seem bummed at all to lose him.
by Will McDonald on Mar 10, 2010 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think the Royals were going to get much more for a pretty good utility player who is well into his arbitration years and is making millions. I mean, could the Royals have gotten an established good, young player for him? Certainly not. A top prospect? No way. I think the most you could get for him is a decent young, cheap player with upside. Now, how good is Getz and how big is his upside? I don’t know. We certainly can’t trust Moore and his scouts. But we also can’t assume they definitely acquired a dud. We’ll see.
And of course the White Sox fans aren’t bummed about losing him. They’ve got Gordon Beckham at second base, who shined pretty quickly when he got to the majors. Getz was going to be a bench player for them.
The immoderate moderator
that is certainly reasonable
I just think back to the golden days of moore. now, many of those trades actually didn’t work out, but there was the proverbial “arm with upside” angle
Getz isn’t that. I don’t think the Royals were going to get a top prospect, but I’m just not sure Getz is really anything. I have no idea.
by Will McDonald on Mar 11, 2010 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
It's really hard to say if Getz will ever be anything
But you never really know with prospects (or guys like Getz who have played a little in the majors and aren’t technically prospects, but they are still question marks). And some kind of question mark with upside is what you wanted to get for Teahen. That’s better than trading him for a similarly decent player who will soon become a FA.
Who knows, maybe this will be more like the Callaspo trade than the Yuni trade.
The immoderate moderator
Teahen was days away from being non-tendered
At that point, getting anything for him was a win.
Of course, Teahen should have been traded long before his value was approaching zero, but that is a completely different discussion.
by Gopherballs on Mar 11, 2010 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
BTW, I want to make clear that I’m not saying that this will be more like the Callaspo trade than the Yuni trade. I’m not a big Getz fan and never have been. But maybe his tools will turn into something. Hard to say. But at least he traded for young-and-cheap instead of 30-something-and-sub-mediocre.
The immoderate moderator
Yeah, Fields was a throw in
but with some small possible upside, making the possible contribution from both a more palatable trade. I’m not being revisionist—I wasn’t that big of a fan of getting Getz in the first place. His bat is a negative compared to Callaspo’s and, at least based on the “small sample size” of last year, his glove was not better (-6.7 UZR /150). Any use of his plus speed, i.e., stealing bases, depends on getting on base, which a .312 OBA last year (with not a lot of projection to get better this year, especially since BABIP was about average last year) tends to make unlikely. I’d like to see that his glove will play better with another season under his belt, but there’s no evidence yet that it will.
I’ll agree that something is generally better than nothing, so, although I don’t know that there was no market for Teahen, Getz was something. And with Bianchi set back another 2 years and Giavotella not showing enough at this point, Getz looks like the only option for at least for awhile. But Getz also takes PAs away from the 2nd/3rd best hitter on the team, who is also under team control for another 3-4 years, and, based on the perceived stubborness of the front office re: Yuni, also could block Aviles (team control for 5 years), who has shown some evidence that he’s better offensively and with the glove. Getz for Teahen alone is not as cut and dried as you make it out to be.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 11, 2010 12:20 AM EST up reply actions
Getz for Teahen alone is not as cut and dried as you make it out to be.
I don’t think it is cut and dried at all. In fact, I was reacting to what looked to be a “cut and dried” statement from you describing the trade as “a loser.” I don’t think it is that cut and dried at all. Maybe the Royals could have gotten more. I’m not sure. Maybe the Royals gave more money than they needed to. Maybe Getz will never become anything. I don’t know. But it is better to get a young, cheap player with upside than to get a known mediocrity. Now was Getz the right guy to get? I don’t know. Certainly the position was not one I would have targeted. But I still see net positives in this trade, and I reject the conclusion that this trade is already “a loser.”
The immoderate moderator
I can understand seeing "net positives" in the trade
I don’t disagree—as long as Fields is also still included. Given a chance that he can be helpful as a four-corners sub against LH pitching, the deal for both him and Getz, who as a middle infield sub would make Teahen (a not-cheap bench player) for two young-to-youngish cheap bench players with a few years of team control a good deal.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 11, 2010 10:14 AM EST up reply actions
Was Fields really a throw-in?
Maybe I’m naive, but I’ve gotten the impression that the Royals really like both guys. When Dayton says the trade was about both of them, I know its GM speak, but I believe him. I mean he probably would want a guy like Josh Fields, right?
I don't think so, at least not in the traditional sense
The White Sox had no interest in keeping him — he was out of options, had struggled in extended playing time in the majors, and had no room for him on the 25-man roster. He would have been one of those guys waived at the end of spring training, so the Sox were certainly motivated to move him.
That said, Fields certainly has some interesting tools — the power is for real, he actually walks at a good rate, and while his strike out and contact rates are below avearge, they are not prohibitively so. He is the type of reclamation project that rebulding teams covet — he fits the Pirates profile, for example. The Sox should have been able to shop him separately and get something shiny in return.
by Gopherballs on Mar 11, 2010 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea where "feal" came from
I’m reelly tired.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 10, 2010 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
is this assuming Guillen's at DH?
because that would bring our position player total up to 12 instead of 13.
someone like Fields would still have room should Guillen get cut.
77-85?
C – Pena
1B – Butler
2B – Getz
SS – Aviles
3B – Gordon
LF – Ankiel
CF – DeJesus
RF – Fields
DH – Callaspo
C – Kendall
2B – Bloomquist
LF – Podsednik
CF – Maier
SP – Greinke
SP – Meche
SP – Bannister
SP – Hochevar
SP – Davies (Crow by mid-season)
RP – Osuna
RP – Bullington
RP – Tejeda
RP – Rosa
RP – Farnsworth
RP – Cruz
RA – Soria (Relief ace)
Maximize the talent available (which we know won’t happen) and we’re a somewhat, someway respectable squad, I think.
Yes, 77 might be a reasonable expectation for that roster
If:
1. An optimized batting order were used.
2. Soria were used in a way to maximize leverage, not just maximize his Save totals.
3. Fifth starter flexibility – maybe Davies, but if not him, maybe Tejeda, or maybe even Campillo. In short, don’t stick with any failed option too long before you try someone else.
The immoderate moderator
don’t stick with any failed option too long before you try someone else.
I always adhere to the basic policy: “Good organizations realize losses when appropriate and act accordingly.” Well, the rest is history.
- is what I insinuated with my “relief ace” designation. Obviously, again, it won’t happen and Hillman will continue to wait until its too late to use Soria too many times and won’t let him pitch three innings in tied games let alone let him pitch in tied games in late innings, particularly in away games.
Hillman laughs at your notion of optimized batting orders. The Hillman effect, the overall organizational ineptitude to handle injuries, allocation of playing time, and the possibility of Moore [pun intended] um…beneficial….trades, are several reasons I predict 70 wins over the projections which mostly yield a win total in the low-to-mid 70s.
by Royals Nation on Mar 11, 2010 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Rather, 2 is what I insinuated....(not 1)
by Royals Nation on Mar 11, 2010 1:12 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, and another typo
I guess I meant “home games” rather than “away games” since we would have home field advantage, anyway.
by Royals Nation on Mar 11, 2010 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
maybe we should put a hold on posts made after midnight...
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
if aviles is healthy enough to play SS opening day
he will play SS opening day, hands down, i would bet large amounts of money on this
if you asked me about this a month ago, I would have said no way – but just going off everything I’ve heard (from hillman saying he liked aviles defense, saying he knows he can hit – to dayton saying betancourt’s range has been poorer than they expected), I would be absolutely shocked if they did not give aviles the job back.
-
If that bet were possible, I'd bet you a very large sum of money that Yuni starts at SS, regardless of Aviles's health
Aviles may get the starting job back (although I think eventually a share between the two of them is more likely), but I think they are going to give Yuni an extended opportunity to prove himself this season.
The immoderate moderator
you forget
they might be both on the roster, but hillman fills out the lineup card
and i’m pretty sure hillman would rather start aviles than betancourt, just going off comments he’s made to the press, and the fact that betancourt doesn’t have a reputation as a great ‘attitude’ guy
-
We'll see, but I doubt it
Moore and Hillman work together. I’m sure they’ve talked about Yuni and his tools and that they’d love for him to become the guy Moore always thought he could be. After trading for him at midseason last year, I’d be shocked if they’re already giving up on him as a starting SS. I’d be astounded.
The immoderate moderator
I sure hope you're right
but with this team, stupidity is just expected, so you’ll have to forgive me for doubting.
Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.
by royaldaddy on Mar 11, 2010 12:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree with NYR
Aviles MIGHT win back the job, but it will be after the all star game at best. Moore stubbornness.
You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
if only
There had been a way to evaluate Yuni’s range before the big trade
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 11, 2010 5:31 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Lateral Movement, On
The other hand……..
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Non-horrible makes me feel so good!
Check out Two Out Rally, the new BASEBALL MMORPG, coming soon!
twooutrally.com | Two Out Rally on facebook | Twitter: @2OutRally
The more important questions would be
Does Mike Aviles make you….
Smile like the sun
Fall out of bed
Sing like a bird
Dizzy in my head
Spin like a record
Crazy on a Sunday niiiight
Does he make you want to…
Dance like a fool
Forget how to breathe
Shine like gold
Buzz like a bee….
good
we need to get back on point
Aviles!
by Will McDonald on Mar 11, 2010 1:41 AM EST up reply actions
OK, I'll engage in actual discussion
So much of me hopes an April AAA-explosion would force the organization’s hand (likely reverting them to opt Betancourt to Omaha, surely he would clear waivers). Even a .260/.300/.400 season would be welcome considering his likely UZR/150, but sadly the organization can get defeated on a very rare occasion by their own dogmatism.
Anyway, I’ve read recent quotes which lead me to believe he is very much in the org.’s “plans” (vague term). And there are recent quotes which lead me to hint that, like FDM, perhaps the organization is beginning to perceive Yunieifi as “less than excellent.” Aviles = one of the “keys” to the season if there were any (Gordon, Meche probably two others…Hoch essentially having neutral or positive luck)
by Royals Nation on Mar 11, 2010 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
plans < The Process
You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
He doesn't do any of that to me
But at least he doesn’t make me puke when he plays shortstop, which is a common side effect of watching the Big Yunit in action.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Butler as a catcher?
am i the only royals fan that thinks butler should be the catcher?i mean didnt he play catcher in the minors? i know we have kendal but if he could only teach butler i think we would have a solid infield anyway…just a thought.
Butler started as a 3B. I don't remember him ever being behind the plate.
And there’s no way he would move well enough to block pitches in the dirt.
He's Doing Better
On the 3-1, though.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
His Brief Stint
In LF was comedy gold.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm roughly Billy's size, a couple inches shorter, and 30 years old
and I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t have looked as bad as he did in LF. That was terrible.
yes, no, and I can’t tell if you are being sarcastic about Kendall teaching Butler to catch or not. Sorry, but putting the fat kid at catcher really only works in little league.
The Molinas disagree.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Aviles winning the SS job back
By itself, that still wouldn’t make this team into a 500 club, but what it would do is give me HOPE that the organization isn’t completly stupid.
If they can effectively admit a mistake (Yuni trade), maybe they can become more open minded in general.
I can hope, anyway.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
I can see why they made the SS move
I still don’t understand getting Yuni. There’s no guarantee Aviles comes back totally healthy from that, so it was probably a bit of a panic move. If the Royals had any kind of depth at SS, it would have prevented it I think.
No, Moore Really
Thought Yu-Bet was a great player. He actually considered trading Butler for him at one point.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I know that
I just mean, if we had any SS in the minors worth moving up, we may not have traded for him.
or use TPJJ for the rest of the year
if you don’t care about offense. We had guys who could have played SS without trading away minor league pitchers and money. They most likely would have sucked. But it wouldn’t have cost anything except maybe a win or two. And we would have gotten better D with Luis. Hell, play Bloomquist there… oh no wait… he is just too valuable in CF!
Don't Stop Believing!
Until Aviles Proves
He’s back for real, TPJJ would still be our best option.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
I have not seen any reason to believe that
the Royals favor Yu-Bet or Bloomquist over Aviles at this point. I think bashing the Royals for a decision that seems to be leaning toward having Aviles play short is pretty weak right now. I think that Aviles will get another legitimate shot as soon as he is healthy.
Go Royals!
Aviles doesn't "look like" a short stop
and Yuni got a 3 year contract (or was it 4?)
You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
and DM is idiotic
You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
Does the fact that they traded two prospects for Yuni and they are paying him guaranteed millions mean anything?
If they thought Aviles was the SS of the future, they wouldn’t have traded for Yuni at all. But they did trade for him. And they are paying him some decent money. It’s not like he’s just some non-roster invitee. They invested talent and money in him. There are some good reasons that every depth chart you can find for the Royals has Yuni #1 at SS. And Aviles coming off of injury is the least of those reasons.
The immoderate moderator
and for DM
Sunk costs are everything.
You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
Probably True
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Whenever you hear a few things drop like "maybe Yuni can't move as
well as we thought he could" and such, it is pretty clear that Moore has lost confidence in that player. No matter what statistics he is using, I think Moore is having a hard time looking at the data and thinking that Yuni is better then Aviles. If Yuni has the April we expect him to have, he will be out of the starter role or even DFA’d, or sent down to the minors pretty quickly. (as opposed to what happened with TPJ. Even the Royals front office eventually learns from the exact same mistakes eventually. Moore won’t stay with Yuni as long as he did when Aviles came up for TPJ)
Go Royals!
Whenever you hear a few things drop like “maybe Yuni can’t move as well as we thought he could” and such, it is pretty clear that Moore has lost confidence in that player
Really? Any comment which moderates expectations in the fanbase means that it is clear that Moore has lost confidence in the player? Do you really think Moore was surprised by what he saw from Yuni in a Royals uniform? I mean, his people scouted Yuni and saw him play last year before the trade. He didn’t see anything different with him in Royal blue than what he’d seen before that. I think there’s no way that the Royals have given up on Yuni as a starting SS yet.
No matter what statistics he is using, I think Moore is having a hard time looking at the data and thinking that Yuni is better then Aviles
Statistics? Data? Do you really think Dayton Moore is looking at defensive statistics and data to evaluate Yuni and Aviles?
If Yuni has the April we expect him to have, he will be out of the starter role or even DFA’d, or sent down to the minors pretty quickly.
Ok, so the question is when will Moore/Hillman move Yuni out of the starting SS role. I guess we’re agreed that he’ll start the season as the regular starting SS. How long will that last? I think at least through May. Probably through the ASB. Maybe even longer than that.
The immoderate moderator
Depends on how well he plays, and how soon Aviles is ready.
I would guess around four weeks.
Go Royals!
DM was positively glowing about DM this morning
Which surprised me.
That said, he made it pretty clear he will start in AAA, but will see a lot of big league action this year.
Hillman's been complementary too
The “I don’t care about body type” quote mentioned in a FanShot gives me reason to hope that the org is really considering SS an unsettled position instead of Yuni’s all the way.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 12, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
I think I called this one correctly but...
The decision to play Gordan in AAA until he “hits his way back” makes up for sliding head first and breaking his thumb is just plain crazy.
Go Royals!
3B Should Not
Be an open competition until Gordon proves he’s a bust, not the other way around.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 12, 2010 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Hope You're Right
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 11, 2010 11:25 PM EST up reply actions
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