So How Good Would the Royals All-Decade Team Be? Part 1: The Lineup
by Will McDonald on Mar 13, 2010 12:39 AM EST
in Honoring & Remembering
28 comments
There was a recent story on the official site announcing the all-decade team. The selection panel was the following: Art Stewart, Denny Matthews, Mike Sweeney, Mike Swanson (VP of broadcasting) and Dick Kaegel.
Looking through their selections, I wondered just how good the all-decade team would be if assembled together.
So here's the list:
C- John Buck: Buck hit .235/.298/.407 over six seasons in KC. Offensively, his best numbers actually came last season, when he hit .247/.299/.484 as an afterthought. Defensively, if were are to delve into the mysteries of catcher defense and game calling, I'd consider him average. Some strengths, some weaknesses. Nothing special.
1B - Mike Sweeney: Sweeney hit .304/.375/.507 as a Royal in the '00s, and posted a huge 2002, hitting .340/.417/.563 in somewhat limited action. One of the easiest selections for the team.
2B - Mark Grudzielanek: Grudz's three good years are a little bit lost in the annals of Royal history, due to the bad teams around him, the completely mercenary character of his time here, and the fact that many of us always wanted him traded and he never was. Still, he hit an impressive .300/.339/.412 over three seasons. Not bad for a second baseman.
SS - Angel Berroa: Well, here it is. The selection chose Berroa, and I'm not sure they had much of a choice. Berroa just ate up so much time, and TPJ hit so unbelievably poorly that he's not a fashionable alternative. So yea, the "all-decade" SS for the Royals is a sub-replacement player. Berroa hit .263/.305/.384 as a Royal in the '00s, with horrible defense. Somehow, he did hit .287/.338/.451 in 2003. I think I would have gone with Rey Sanchez.
3B - Joe Randa: Randa hit .283/.336/.422 during his years as a Royal in the '00s. His defensive stats, where you can find them, are all over the place. Insanely good in 2004, terrible afterwards. During his early '00s Royals heydey, he was always talked about as a good defensive player, and he hit .291/.348/.452 during 2003. He was overlooked to an extent back in the day (for a beloved "good guy" white player that is) but now he'd be one of the team's best position players.
OF - David DeJesus: DeJesus wore them down. That's all I can think. DeJesus never really had a peak, but cranked out a .286/.358/.425 line over the decade. His best season was possibly 2008, .307/.366/.452. Not a real star for the outfield, but he'll give the Royals good defense and a little bit of everything at the plate.
OF - Jermaine Dye: In terms of the '00s, Dye wasn't a Royal for very long. He hit well in 2000, and was traded in-season to Oakland. If you remember, Dye had struggled in 2001, then hit well upon arriving in Oakland. For some reason the B-R cumulative stats feature is wonky when a guy gets traded, but roughly, his 2000-1 line, as a Royal, was about .300/.360/.500, thanks mostly to that monster campaign in 2000. Early 00s Dye was probably still passable afield, but he got so bad later (after a number of injuries) I'm not sure how good to consider him. Nevertheless, with DDJ and the next guy also in the OF, I'm not too worried.
OF - Carlos Beltran: Just a great all around player. From 2000-3 Beltran hit .286/.355/.486 with great defense. Along with Sweeney, one of the no-brainer picks for this list.
DH - Billy Butler: An interesting choice, depending on how you view the DH on an imaginary team. Butler has hit .291/.346/.451 as a Royal, not immediately preferable to Rauuuuul's .291/.347/.492, with more speed and probably better defense. You could also DH Dye, and plug in Damon, who hit .327/.382/.495 in his one year with the team that decade. If we're considering Dye, I think I'd rather have Damon's overall game, and have an absolutely awesome OF with DDJ-Beltran-Damon. Emil Brown's .279/.340/.428 isn't quite good enough, but I think he's a nice way of showing how Butler is nevertheless something of a default or highly presentist choice.
Using the Lineup Analyzer on Pinto's site, I've got that lineup producing between 4.9 and 5.2 runs per game. Lets split the difference, and be slightly positive towards the manager of the decade Tony Pena, and say that team scores 5.1 per game. That comes out to 826 runs.
Wow, that's ok, but still not actually that super. Why so low?
1) Angel Berroa & John Buck: their .305 and .298 OBPs are bad on a normal team, and they help drag down the run production of our 00s Royals dream team. Think how many times those guys are stranding Randa to end the second?
2) Generally low OBPs all around: Randa and Grudz, at .336 and 339 aren't killing you with those OBPs, but they also help prevent take the team to a higher level. Butler and DeJesus are slightly better, but still not full-fledged assets offensively (remember I took Butler's average, not just his 2009).
3) A good but not great core: so that leaves Sweeney, Dye, and Beltran as the team's real core. That's really nice, but it actually happened in real life, or almost did, and it wasn't world altering. All three of those guys are slugging around .500, as opposed to a real murderers row that would have a guy at .550 and maybe another at .600.
and maybe most importantly
4) The Royals have been really bad. The Royals actually had a number of strong offensive teams at the beginning of the decade. In 2000 the Royals scored 879 runs (5th in AL), in 2003 they scored 836 (4th in AL), for example. (Now granted, the K was playing much more offensively those years.) But the Royals have been really weak offensively for awhile now. The totals would be higher if I used everyone's best year, but really, what's more representative of Angel Berroa, for example? The one good year, or the four other bad ones? If anything, the numbers could be lower, if we adjusted for park effects, which give Randa, Dye, Sweeney, and Beltran nice boosts.
Next up the pitching staff.
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Reminds me of a fanpost of I was considering
if every played on the 25 man roster had a career year, could this team compete?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
yes
career years are career years, bigger variation than a team like this
look at someone like Mark Quinn, if you get his career year, he’s awesome… and he’s out of baseball two years later
by Will McDonald on Mar 13, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions
Still, though
“compete” is a fairly liberal term. :|
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this would be a pretty good defensive team
young, pre-injuries Dye and Beltran and DDJ is pretty sweet
Catcher and shortstop have been black holes on this team for a long time
But Buck and Berroa? Yikes.
For the shortstop I think it should just read “insert your personal favorite weird backup middle infielder”. That would leave me room to honor Wilson Delgado and his helicopter throwing motion.
But actually I would most definitely pick Rey Sanchez
And A.J. Hinch for the catcher (just kidding…..kind of).
was sanchez good defensively?
his good year was 99 offensively, in 2000, his OBP was like .314, not much an improvement
by Will McDonald on Mar 13, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
I always though Sanchez was great defensively
But at that time I was probably going around quoting his fielding percentage. I don’t know how he’d stack up under the saber-scope. He certainly looked good to me at the time. Definitely not flashy, but he had a way of easing the ball into his glove that, as a former middle infielder myself (in junior high), I really admired.
he was always esteemed for good defense, and he seemed to make every routine play.
Only occasionally would you get a “wow, pretty good” play. I don’t recall any really eye-popping plays. Anyway, I’ll take his reliable defense and empty .300 average over the corpse of Angel Berroa.
at the point at which they took Dye
thats fair game
then again, Dye had been a Royal longer, so maybe they felt more comfortable sneaking in that 1.5 years of his 00 time
by Will McDonald on Mar 13, 2010 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
102 games of pure ecstacy
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 13, 2010 1:25 AM EST up reply actions
WAR
Here’s the total WAR for each player in this lineup during the 2000’s as a Royal according to Rally’s database:
John Buck: 3.5
Mike Sweeney: 18.3
Mark Grudzielanek: 6.6
Angel Berroa: 3.8
Joe Randa: 11.8
David DeJesus: 18.9
Jermaine Dye: 5.4
Carlos Beltran: 18
Billy Butler: 0.5
Man, it only has Butler at 0.5? Fangraphs has him at 3.1. I’m sure this must have been pointed out here before. I guess it’s partly a UZR vs. TotalZone thing as well as fangraphs not including base running?
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Mar 13, 2010 2:06 AM EST reply actions
German over Grudz?
I liked German a lot, but his defense made him less valuable than Grudz.
The immoderate moderator
i thought this was written from a run-production perspective
if we’re including defense, then you are correct
batter nine you sucky
I don't know about Will, but I was including defense
And that’s what would really make this team good (well, half team since we’re just talking position players). The OF defense would be spectacular. The IF defense would also be good. Add in the decade’s best Royal pitching and you have a damned good team, for whatever that’s worth.
The immoderate moderator
If we're talking about each of these players at their peak, that's a pretty good team
Even Berroa in his ROY year performed well. Of course Aviles in his magical 2/3 of a season was damned good as well.
The immoderate moderator
That's not a real good lineup if we're talking career value
Only one real star on the list, Beltrán, and a pretty good hitter in Dye, but he barely counts as a Royal. Damon would improve the team, but he’s not considered a Royal in the rest of the country. Huge holes at C and SS. The other six were/are all competent players, but not much above average. Sweeney was a good hitter but had no position and was always hurt.
With an average pitching staff, this lineup might go .500, as long as nobody got injured or had a below-average year. Remember when they had Damon, Dye, Sweeney, Beltrán, Randa, and Febles (his good year) all at the same time? They didn’t break .500 then.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Could somebody look up
the players who had most PAs at each position during the decade? That would probably be the most representative Royals team of the 2000s. I’d do it myself but I’m not sure where to look.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Clearly the most representative composite Royals team of the decade would be awful
…because the Royals were awful in this decade. But I think Will was trying to put together a Royals all-star team from this decade. And the best-of team is quite good, particularly if we’re looking at each player at his Royals peak.
The immoderate moderator
The Royals just released this as their All-Decade team.
Will wondered, like I did myself, just how good that team would be.
I went to Baseball Reference and found this
Ground rules: Player must have played for the Royals at least one season between 2000 and 2009. PAs listed are from the player’s whole career with the Royals, including PAs from the 1990s. OPSs listed are from the player’s whole career, beginning to end.
Sweeney 5278 PA 854 OPS
Randa 4158 PA 765 OPS
Beltrán 3512 PA 856 OPS
Damon 3407 PA 794 OPS
DeJesus 3405 PA 782 OPS
Teahen 2732 PA 749 OPS
Berroa 2496 PA 677 OPS
Dye 2275 PA 826 OPS
Mayne 2200 PA 680 OPS
Buck 2116 PA 705 OPS
Febles 1892 PA 683 OPS
Brown 1607 PA 721 OPS
Tucker 1572 PA 763 OPS
Butler 1510 PA 798 OPS
Sánchez 1489 PA 642 OPS
Grudzielanek 1432 PA 727 OPS
So you’d have Mayne and Buck sharing catcher, Teahen at 1B, Febles at 2B, Berroa at SS, Randa at 3B, an outfield of Damon, Beltrán, and DeJesus, and Sweeney at DH. Your backups would be Dye as 4th OF-1B, Brown as 5th OF, and Sánchez at IF. It’d be a better team with Dye as your starting first baseman and Teahen as utilityman. Grudz would be an improvement over Febles as well.
That’s a terrific outfield, a mediocre infield, and holes at C and SS. Teahen’s a hole at 1B as well, assuming we don’t use Dye there.
Even if we use Dye, our team would have three starters with an OPS over 800, three between 750 and 800, and three below 700 (averaging Buck and Mayne).
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
I knew I missed somebody
Ibáñez 1527 PA 826 OPS
DeJesus is a much better fielder, but Ibáñez’s OPS is nearly 50 points higher.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
I found these guys' Adjusted OPS+
Only including PAs with the Royals:
Sweeney 119
Ibáñez 112
Beltrán 111
Butler 110
Dye 106
DeJesus 106
Brown 101
Damon 100
Teahen 97
Randa 95
Tucker 93
Buck 84
Berroa 78
Febles 74
Mayne 65
Sánchez and Grudzielanek aren’t mentioned.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
Why not Ibanez?
He put up better numbers in more at bats than Dye in that time frame. He played more in the OF than DH. I’d also take Aviles at SS and even Olivo at catcher. John Buck may have played 3x the games in KC that Olivo did, but John Buck always sucked. To say Olivo was(is) a free swinger may be an understatement, but at least he had legit power, had a cannon arm, punched A.J. Pierzynski, and he was Greinke’s battery mate for the 2009 Cy Young campaign. Zack always gives Olivo credit for his game calling that year.
by YouDon'tPhaseMeGobble on Mar 15, 2010 1:21 AM EDT reply actions
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