Today's Dutton Article, or The Royals Being the Royals
by The Ol' Perfesser on Mar 16, 2010 1:10 PM EDT
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PrintReading it provokes a veritable whipsaw of baseball emotions. So much that actually seems sensible or even hopeful, and yet so much that sounds so . . . well, Royals.
Something good first:
Either way, club officials are adamant that Callaspo, a switch hitter, needs regular playing time.
Now this sounds hopeful. They get it; of the offensive players collected, Callaspo is one of the more productive and needs to play regularly. Good. Glad to see you didn't fail to notice last season.
Then this, which suggests they weren't paying that much attention at all.
Club officials remain comfortable with utilityman Willie Bloomquist filling all three outfield roles as a backup to starters Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus
Urgh.
Or then you see this:
There’s even a growing feeling among club officials that Callaspo might be a better option at third base than a healthy Gordon
which makes one wonder if they're giving up on Alex. But then suddenly you see:
Even so, the Royals are hesitant to give up on Maier, who is out of options and must be exposed to waivers before returning to the minors.
One then hopes that maybe they're not so dead set on disposing of Mitch before exploring his potential fully.
Then there's this:
It’s notable perhaps that Gordon was already drawing time at first base before his injury. That points to a longer-term view in which that shift might be permanent with Billy Butler transitioning into a designated hitter if, as expected, veteran José Guillen departs after the season (if not sooner).
Ai yi yi. My poor ol' ticker can't take this.
Well, O.K., they're thinking forward. Kila fans wouldn't be happy to see this, but at least we're relieved of any notions of Guillen somehow sticking around (a nightmare scenario). Or is this Dutton just thinking out loud?
Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy decade.
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Stupid stupid stupid
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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I decided to defend Gordon on there
But then my baseball skills got questioned by that genius stevo51.
Brilliant.
Now my choice of Alex Gordon jersey is being discussed.
Reminds me why I don’t like reading comments on the Star’s website.
which bit?
If it’s the Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH thing, I don’t think that’s actually a terrible idea—at least with the current roster. Compare 1B-Butler, 2B-Getz, SS-Yuni, 3B-Gordon and DH-Callaspo to 1B-Gordon, 2B-Getz, SS-Yuni, 3B-Callaspo and DH-Butler. You know Gordon will be a better defensive first baseman than Butler, and if the club is right that Callaspo is looking better at 3B than Gordon has (not hard to believe), you improve the defense at two spots without hurting your offense at all by making the shift.
Long term, you’d like to see the club maximize Gordon’s value by playing him at third, but for the present roster, shifting him to first might make the team better.
Long term, you’d like to see the club maximize Gordon’s value by playing him at third, but for the present roster, shifting him to first might make the team better.
That’s a valid point, but if Butler’s long-term future is at 1B with Gordon at 3B (which it really should be, with the other long-term option being stupid, stupid, stupid), then Butler needs to continue playing at 1B as often as possible. He needs the practice. The above alignment might get the Royals 1 additional win in this lost season, at the expense of more wins than that in the future. I think that makes it a stupid idea for even this one year.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
eh
I don’t think it’s anything to get upset about. The argument against the shift would be that you’re denying Butler and Gordon valuable practice reps at their best positions. I don’t think that argument is without merit, but if I were Greinke, I know I’d be pissed if my manager was intentionally playing a suboptimal defensive alignment in order to let Butler and Gordon practice. It’s the major leagues—practice during practice, and earn your spot.
That said, if I were managing the team, I’d keep Butler at 1B and make Gordon earn his spot at 3B over Callaspo. But between shifting Gordon to 1B, keeping Gordon at AAA till he shows he’s the best option at 3B, and shifting Callaspo to a new defensive position each day when people need rest, I don’t think there’s an obvious right answer. If this is the way they go, their decision seems reasonable.
. I don’t think that argument is without merit, but if I were Greinke, I know I’d be pissed if my manager was intentionally playing a suboptimal defensive alignment in order to let Butler and Gordon practice. It’s the major leagues—practice during practice, and earn your spot.
First, I don’t care how Greinke or any of the Royals pitchers feel. Second, if I were Hillman or Moore and I cared, I’d sit him down and tell him that they’re trying to build a contending team and this is the best way to do it. It wouldn’t take a lot of complicated explaining to show him why it makes sense.
But between shifting Gordon to 1B, keeping Gordon at AAA till he shows he’s the best option at 3B, and shifting Callaspo to a new defensive position each day when people need rest, I don’t think there’s an obvious right answer. If this is the way they go, their decision seems reasonable.
I don’t think those are all reasonable courses of action. I think sending Gordon to AAA (when healthy) is probably the stupidest thing they could do. He has already proven that he’s the best 3B on the team by a mile and a half. And shifting Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH drops their value considerably. In addition to losing Butler extremely valuable PT at first, it also increases the risk that they make this a permanent move.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Callaspo might be a better third baseman
He certainly might be the better hitter, and I don’t think it’s unlikely at all that he’ll be the better defensive player at third. Callaspo could easily prove to be an above-average defensive third baseman. We don’t know at this point.
As for the manager’s obligation to try to win games, Greinke signed his long term deal with the expectation that the team would be competitive. It’s one thing to put an honest effort in and not have it work out through bad luck or poor but well-intentioned moves, but to intentionally play an inferior fielder when you have a clearly superior option would be a violation of the trust between managment and its players.
Regarding your claim that shifting Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH would drop their value considerably—I don’t agree. It will drop their WAR for 2010, but it won’t drop their trade value. Other teams will know Gordon can play 3B—even if he plays 1B during 2010. They’re not going to get a discount on the trade market just because the Royal’s roster forced him to play out of position for a year. The same can be said of Butler. Other teams know he can play a passable, if below average, first base, and his trade value won’t suffer just because the Royals had a better option in Gordon this year. The only way it hurts their trade value is the lost practice time, and ultimately, practice time is a really stupid reason to make your defense worse. Practice when the games don’t count.
The games aren't going to count for the Royals for at least 2 more seasons
and that’s assuming Dayton, et. al. were fired today and replaced by the Rays front office.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
or a bunch of monkeys
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." - Rogers Hornsby
by MidTNRoyalsFan on Mar 17, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
We don’t know at this point.
What I think we know well enough at this point is that Alex Gordon is the better overall third baseman than Callaspo. Callaspo would have to be an outstanding defensive 3B for his total value at the position to be higher than Gordon. Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot.
As for the manager’s obligation to try to win games, Greinke signed his long term deal with the expectation that the team would be competitive. It’s one thing to put an honest effort in and not have it work out through bad luck or poor but well-intentioned moves, but to intentionally play an inferior fielder when you have a clearly superior option would be a violation of the trust between managment and its players.
So the manager has an obligation to do something which might help the team win an additional single game in the current year, even if it hurts the team in future years, when the team might possibly be good enough to contend? That is nonsensical. I’m sure Greinke wants the team to be competitive. They will not be competitive in 2010, regardless of which players play well. So things should be done in a way that maximizes value for the future when the team might contend. If Greinke is short-sighted and/or stupid enough to only want what is best for the 2010 team, then his desires should be ignored. Quite frankly, what any one pitcher wants with regard to player usage should be ignored. It’s his job to pitch, not coach.
Regarding your claim that shifting Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH would drop their value considerably—I don’t agree. It will drop their WAR for 2010, but it won’t drop their trade value.
I’m talking about their value to the team. I’m assuming the organization isn’t stupid enough to trade them, but I’m probably wrong.
Positional value isn’t just about trade value. It’s about how easy it is to find player of a particular value at a particular position.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Given that this is the same organization that thinks (or at least thought) Yuni is awesome defensively, I think it’s very likely that they are over evaluating Callaspo’s ability at 3B.
About Gordon at 1B, he actually looks pretty good over there, but there’s no “good” reason to make this switch now. I can see this happening later in his career (like Brett), but that ought to be 8 years or so away.
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Mar 16, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
"Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot."
Gordon wOBA:
2007: .317 in 601 PA
2008: .344 in 571 PA
2009: .321 in 189 PA
Callaspo wOBA:
2007: .241 in 156 PA
2008: .328 in 234 PA
2009: .352 in 634 PA
In Callaspo’s first full season of regular playing time, he hit better than Gordon ever has. That’s not to say Callaspo is clearly the better hitter. He’s only had one season of good hitting in the majors and some crappy numbers in previous years, so the jury is still out on his true talent level, but your statement that, “Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot,” requires a pretty selective reading of the data.
Yes, CHONE projects Gordon’s wOBA to be .350, which is better than Callaspo’s projected wOBA of .336. On the other hand, the two players are less than a year apart in age, and Callaspo has been much more impressive recently. CHONE apparently believes Callaspo’s newly discovered power in 2009 to be a mirage, projecting Callaspo’s SLG to regress to .412 in 2010 from .457 in 2009. His power in 2009 didn’t look particularly unsustainable to me tho. It’s not like it’s unheard of for a player to add doubles power in his mid-twenties, and his HR/FB of 5% in 2009 wasn’t even particularly good.
"Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot," requires a pretty selective reading of the data.
The projection systems don’t utilize a selective reading of data, but they all read his true talent level as a hitter considerably higher than Callaspo’s.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but projection systems would be a lot better
if only they took past seasons into account
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
lol, to be fair
seitzer said the reason callaspo hit for more power last year was due to an extensive offseason weight training program with their then new trainer dude, ty hill – which resulted in him putting on a lot of muscle, which sounds very reasonable to me
-
smug
but untrue. Marcel’s projects Callaspo to have a better wOBA.
Do you know what the difference is between Marcel, CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA and CAIRO?
It’s important.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
"[The projection systems] all read [Gordon's] true talent level as a hitter considerably higher than Callaspo’s."
This statement is untrue. I understand that Marcel just does a simple weighted regression, and that it’s not typically as accurate as the other systems. But your assertion that every system believes Gordon to be the vastly superior offensive player is demonstrably false.
Callaspo’s wOBA over the last 3 years is .330. Gordon’s wOBA over the last 3 years is .329. For me, it’s hard to look at those numbers, and conclude, “Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot.”
For me, it’s hard to look at those numbers, and conclude, "Gordon is the better hitter, period, and by a lot."
I guess it takes all kinds of people to make a world. I embrace diversity.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 17, 2010 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Gordon Was A
Good defensive 3B in ‘07. The broken nose and hip injury probably had something to do with his decline the last two years, particularly the latter. I don’t want to waste him at 1B, and I don’t think Callaspo will be nearly as good defensivesy as Gordon anywhere.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The largest sample of MLB defensive data (his MLB career) for Gordon shows him to be approximately average at 3B
Given Callaspo’s somewhat stone-like hands, I seriously doubt he’d be better than Gordon at 3B.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know...
If Gordon is a bad defensive 3B, then it’s not all that stupid. I suppose the right answer is to give him another year to either bounce back as a defensive player or continue regressing. And you’re right that this season doesn’t matter, but deciding on positions based on platonic ideals is silly when the DH options for this team both now and in the future are so uninspiring.
by billexgordler on Mar 17, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If Gordon is a bad defensive 3B, then it’s not all that stupid.
But he isn’t a bad defensive 3B. Defense is hard to evaluate, but in this case, both the stats the scouts agree that he is average-to-above average (stats say average, scouts say above average — they love his tools).
And you’re right that this season doesn’t matter, but deciding on positions based on platonic ideals
It isn’t about platonic ideals. It is about a choice. Choice A: utilizing Gordon, Butler and Callaspo in a way that gains you an additional win (and that’s about the max) in a lost season where the team won’t contend. Choice B: utilizing Gordon, Butler and Callaspo in a way that helps you build towards contending in a future season. Choosing a short-term win or two now at the expense of a possibly contending future truly is stupid, stupid, stupid.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 17, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree.
But he isn’t a bad defensive 3B. Defense is hard to evaluate, but in this case, both the stats the scouts agree that he is average-to-above average (stats say average, scouts say above average — they love his tools).
Based on scouts and stats, Alex Gordon hasn’t been a “good” 3B since his rookie year. He has been average at best. Maybe it was injuries. Maybe he’ll improve. I have no idea. What I do know is that if Gordon and Callaspo are equal as 3B then this move is not worth three “stupids”. If Gordon’s worse than Callaspo at 3B then it’s not even worth one “stupid”.
utilizing Gordon, Butler and Callaspo in a way that helps you build towards contending in a future season.
Gordon is the only guy whose value this truly hurts. B
by billexgordler on Mar 17, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
We apparently have a fundamental disagreement about the value of players at different positions. I think the WAR positional adjustments are quite fair. Following that, moving Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH greatly decreases the value of both. As far as Callaspo goes, I think everyone has had their head turned by one season of good hitting. HIs defense sucked. Gordon has had pretty good hitting and fielding for a 3B. Those are the facts. Gordon’s hitting and defense at his position made him an above average player in both 2007 and 2008 (2.1 and 2.4 WAR). There’s really no reason to believe Callaspo is as good as Gordon. Callaspo has hands of stone. He fucks up in the field way too much. There’s no reason to think that playing at third will suddenly give him soft hands and an accurate arm. And there’s no reason to think Callaspo will hit better than Gordon in the future. When scouts and stats agree, there’s probably something there, no?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 17, 2010 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
When Podzilla Goes
Down with the inevitable injury, slide Bert into LF. Have him work on it in practice. He’ll be fine.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2010 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, If Butler is a -4 first baseman, then moving him to DH
takes like .3 WAR from him, I would not call that greatly decreasing his value, when the best DH we have after him is about 1 WAR total.
Go Royals!
Yes, we do...
This is what I mean about platonic ideal: I think the DH adjustment that WAR uses doesn’t reflect reality. It’s purely theoretical. What it fails to take into account, I think, is that the athletic ability it takes to be an adequate fielder correlates strongly with the athletic ability that it takes to be a great hitter.
I really don’t want to get into this argument now, because I don’t think we’ll convince each other, which is fine. I just don’t think it makes any sense to use an adjustment that doesn’t in any way reflect reality. Every season the DH position wildly underachieves its theoretical value not because GMs are all stupid but because most of the best hitters are also very good fielders. Like I said, I don’t really want to get into it here, but suffice to say that while I do understand that players have different values at different positions, I believe that the current adjustments need a lot of work.
One final thing: Positional adjustments are far more useful for a guy in the process of building a team and less useful for a guy fielding a team.
moving Gordon to 1B and Butler to DH greatly decreases the value of both
Decreases value to whom?
Gordon has had pretty good hitting and fielding for a 3B. Those are the facts.
It is also a fact that Guillen has had pretty good hitting and fielding for a RF. Just not for a couple of years. Look, I love Gordon (look at my name for god’s sake) and I want him to be a stud, but he’s had a couple of average to below-average years defensively (according to both stats and scouts). And I don’t think it’s stupid to consider contingency plans in the event that his defense stays the same (maybe his range has been diminished by his hip injury?) or gets worse. This whole discussion (that the Royals are having internally) hinges on Gordon’s performance at third. If he plays a good 3B, then there’s no earthly way that they will move him.
As for your comments about Callaspo’s hands. I really have no idea. Maybe you’re right. Frankly, at this point, I trust your opinion more than the braintrust in Surprise.
by billexgordler on Mar 18, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
The thing about shifting players around
is that it affects their individual WAR a lot more than it affects their team WAR. If Butler, Gordon and Callaspo are splitting 1B, 3B and DH, the total defensive adjustment for the 3 is going to be the same no matter how you stack them. Their total hitting won’t be affected either, so team WAR is maximized by playing the best defensive alignment you can. I’m not sure what that is, but it might be Callaspo at 3B and Gordon at 1B. If you accept that Gordon and Butler are “future cornerstones” and Callaspo is more of a journeyman, then you’d want to maximize the value of Gordon and Butler since Callaspo might not be around by the time the Royals contend.
I would rather the Royals just trade Gordon than move him to 1B full-time
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
Or trade Callaspo
Management has to know that Gordon has more trade value at 3B, but if Callaspo is a better defensive 3B, then making this shift improves the team. The club can always trade one of the two to a team in need of a 3B to alleviate the crunch, and even if they’re playing different positions pre-trade, the team acquiring them will have to pay for their value at 3B. See: Teahen, Mark.
I wish they'd give him a shot to play RF before moving him to 1b
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Or even better, give Callaspo a shot at LF
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
What makes you say that?
He’s played the OF before in the minors and in winter ball. When I saw him play in winter ball (CF), he got good jumps and took pretty good routes. What have you seen of his OF play that leads you to believe he’d be atrocious? Or what is it about his tools that lead you to believe he’d be atrocious there?
And even with poor defense, keeping him in the lineup, while booting Pods would make it a net positive for the team.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't trust the Royals judgement on this
They once put German, another good hitting, defensively challenged 2B in the OF. He was atrocious; therefore, Callaspo would have to be atrocious as well.
That’s how this organization thinks, apparently – it didn’t work with German, so it won’t work with Callaspo.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
But DDJ has to be there
Because Pods has to be in LF. It wouldn’t be fair to Pods to let Callaspo play the OF.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 16, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone needs to convince Pods to retire
…and Guillen, Kendall and Betancourt.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You're doin' a hulluva job, Dayton
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It's sad when our hope
is a mass surprise retirement announcement
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." - Rogers Hornsby
by MidTNRoyalsFan on Mar 17, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm Hoping Dutton
Is just typing because he has to fill space.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Or "club officials" are really an imaginary space alien only Bob can see
Nice lineup dum-dum!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Another Dutton Gem
There’s even a growing feeling among club officials that Callaspo might be a better option at third base than a healthy Gordon, who, unlike Callaspo, has options remaining and can therefore be sent to the minors without the risk of a waiver claim.
They might as well just kill him.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Well Alex is in the hands of the Royals medical staff
So death and/or permanent disfigurement is always a possibility
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Amputation Is Not
Out of the question.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Bring on the leaches!
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Rick And Family?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like the Royals brass has read
NYRoyals post on the ten worst decisions they could implement in 2010,
and has defiantly begun implementing them.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
And working to create others
But of course we don’t know how much of this is serious and how much of this is Dutton talking to a couple assistants of assistants in the front office, or some tertiary scout who is just speculating or rumor mongering. There is so much loose talk in spring training (and really all year long), so I’m not going to criticize the Royals for any of these potential awful moves unless and until they make them.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe He's Spreading
Disinformation in an attempt to increase Callaspo’s trade value. Yeah, that's the ticket
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
I suppose you are right
but sometimes Dutton seems to know something before any other writers do.
Looking back at your post on the 10 worst decisions:
Theoretically, they are toying with turning #3 (Gordon not the starting 3b) from a “no” to a "yes
They sent Rosa down today – your #7 was a half-yes, half-no, but now looks like a complete yes
Apparently, Davies looks so bad that the #5 starter is down to Farnsworth vs Tejeda – and they just had Tejeda make his last start pitching entirely from the stretch! Most likely, Moore will make some dumb trade for a 5th starter at the last minute – but you answer to #9 (Farnsworth is the 5th starter) could possibly be headed from a “no” to a “yes”.
Wow – what would you think if they actually implemented, say 8 or 9 of your 10 worst decisions? Would it be more anger, surprise, or simply a knowing nod of the head?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Wow – what would you think if they actually implemented, say 8 or 9 of your 10 worst decisions? Would it be more anger, surprise, or simply a knowing nod of the head?
All of the above, I guess. Mostly, I would feel a sadness that Moore and Hillman are even worse than I thought. Quite frankly I didn’t think their stock would drop even further.
Sending Rosa down is just unbelievable. Do they think that Colon, Lerew and/or Herges is better. It is amazing how this organization with so little talent appears to be squandering genuinely talented players (Kila, Rosa, Aviles, B. Pena).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Rosa is going down to console Gordon
and if Moustakas can tell the org where to put it about moving to catcher, I’d hope Gordon could tell them the same about moving to 1B.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Great point
So the report was that they asked Moustakas about playing catcher and he said no, right? Can that possibly be true? I mean what, did Dayton go hat-in-hand into Moustakas’ office?
“Uh, excuse me, Mr. Moustakas? We were wondering if you wanted to play catcher? No? OK. Sorry to bother you. I’ll show myself out.”
On Rosa, it is because he has an option and right handed.
How good a reliver he is doesn’t matter to the Royals because they can then add another lefty to the pen, got to have those. Plus Blake Wood is a nice shiny new toy out of the pen.
Go Royals!
It amazes me that Moore/Hillman's stupidity continues to amaze me
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
After last season,
I think Trey’s worse off than GMDM.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Could be, but the stupidity of the GM hurts the team and the organization much, much more
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Trey Only
Loses the occasional game. GMDM can lose dozens at once with personnel decisions.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Final thought
I thought your 10 worst decisions covered basically every “fear” I had for the season – then I got to thinking, this is the Royals here! They are perfectly capable of making decisions worse than even the most pessimistic followers of the team could dream up. Maybe, just maybe, they will surprise us by doing something dumber than any of the top 10 in your post!
GMDM – inspiring confidence at every turn.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
on the plus side
This hopefully gets this regime fired faster?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
What if...
2010 was epically bad, like sub-60 win bad, like “Greinke has a losing record because the team is so bad” bad. The preferred lineup is perfectly capable of such a terrible season: I’d say Pods and Kendall as the 1/2 has a 60% chance of coming true, Guillen and Ankiel will bat 5th and 6th, and Yuni and Getz will be 8/9. It gets worse if (when) Farnsworth is anointed the fifth starter. No more than 60 wins seems entirely possible out of that.
If it happens, Hillman’s not coming back from that. Would Moore be on notice at that point?
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 16, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
But I think that worse case scenario is just as unlikely as the best case scenario. Even with Hillman’s shitty player usage decisions and Moore’s crappy choice of who makes the 25-man roster, the team is likely to win at least 70 games. Even with bad breaks and especially poor performances, they are likely to win at least 65 games.
I think Moore has at least 3 more seasons in KC. But I am looking forward to the 2016 Royals after the next GM’s rebuilding effort has rebuilt the team.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder
if positive regression to the mean actually works for a team that rejects statistical analysis. Maybe if they don’t realize they are statistically a 70-win team, it won’t hapen.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 16, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think Hillman would certainly be out
Dayton I think has at least two more years. But if they aren’t close to .500 either year, I think he’s gone.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
hillman is only 5-10% of the problem
depending on how much playing time/roster say he actually has
its amazing, but maybe we need Buddy Bell back
I would say less than 5%
Not because he’s a pretty good manager, but because the impact of a bad manager is pretty small, especially compared to the impact of the guy who actually determines which players are on the roster to use/misuse.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with that
The problems run much deeper than Hillman.
Honestly, I think with a different roster, Hillman could be a decent GM. I think a lot of his bizarre managerial decisions are borne out out of desperation because he knows he’s dealing with such a crappy roster. The only problem is he is digging that ditch deeper rather than helping. But I think if he managed the Yanks, he’d be a much more laissez faire manager in regards to strategy.
I do question his ability to manage a clubhouse, but I guess I’m not all that privy to that insider info.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Of course I mean Hillman could be a decent manager, not GM
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If you ask me this is Hillman's last year
We’re gonna be really bad again this year, and a scapegoat is needed. Of course Hillman is the least of our worries. Sure I HATE him as a manager, but ultimately he is just a symptom of the disease.
And the disease could very well be here for the remainder of his extension.
Welp, Dayton has a new nickname now
Dayton “The Disease” Moore.
by Soria's Unibrow on Mar 17, 2010 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd be less depressed
if Dutton wasn’t such a good reporter. Seriously. I need to start writing my report on the Pirates current talent (which is actually worse than the Royals, even if their F.O. is smarter going forward).
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
I love the Pirates' idea of stockpiling former top prospects on the cheap
They only need a couple to break out, and most of the rest should at least provide some value going forward.
And with the Astros in the division, they probably won't finish last this season
Except that, unlike the Astros, the PIrates are willing to trade some valuable pieces for the future
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The Problem is that the Pirates are
Willing to trade ALL of their talent for the future. Repeatedly, on an annual, perpetual, regular basis.
Turning Kool-Aid to Jesus Juice since 2009.
by Discodave on Mar 17, 2010 12:20 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
they clearly don't have the foresight to hang on to the offchance they might win 81 games
it might only happen once, but it will be a huge boon for whatever franchise does so
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 17, 2010 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
their position players are pretty average overall
McCutchen makes up for the Cedeno/Crosby SS disaster, and he’s still young.
Milledge could break out. Maybe.
Their pitching is pretty horrible, and not as young as one might think
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the staff is a big problem
But I bet the focus of the next round of acquisitions will be pitching, if it is not already so. Duke’s a free agent in two years, and Maholm in three (if option is exercised), so if either get off to solid starts, I bet they get shopped.
Wouldn’t Brandon Jones be the Royals 2nd or 3rd best OF?
I wanted him badly
crap, that’s another modification I need to make to my spreadsheet… I now have the Pirates at 76 wins… Houston at 64…
But back to the subject at hand. Seattle is obviously sick of Jose Lopez, so, who do the Royals get when Gordon goes to Seattle to hit 30+ homers?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
if they like Callaspo at third
they’ll LOVE Jose Lopez
Seriously, Dayton, I KNOW you’r reading this (although 56K is a pain in the butt), PLEASE just trade Gordon instead of moving him to 1b or platooning him
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
actually Jose Lopez would play 1B for the Royals
where he has played 29 games the last two years.
2011 Royals Infield:
1B Lopez
2B Getz
SS Betancourt
3B Fields
DH Andruw Jones (assuming Callaspo is traded for Glen Perkins)
Isn't first base for big fat guys with no lateral movement?
Oh wait, that’s shortstop.
by NotAHippie on Mar 16, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not In KC
If history is any indication.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Club officials remain comfortable with utilityman Willie Bloomquist filling all three outfield roles as a backup to starters Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus
Then why the F did they give a MLB contract to Brian Anderson? Its not like they know more about Willie B than they did last year. And surely they didn’t sign Anderson thinking he’d be a starter. So why exactly did they bring him in?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
T the P
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, Gopherballs said that Anderson can still be outrighted to the minors. If they do this, his MLB contract wouldn’t be guaranteed and he’d make minor league money.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
yah, but he could walk and be a free agent.
Go Royals!
So We Could
Resign him?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 16, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And that would also be positive. I mean, if the Royals don’t think he’s worthy of being on the 25-man roster, losing a sub-mediocre piece of AAA depth isn’t a big deal.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Mar 16, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
a bumpy decade?
more like an effing retarded decade…
by Yunielateral Movement on Mar 16, 2010 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
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