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How Good Would the Royals All-Decade Team Be? Part 2: The Pitchers

The official team site recently announced the All-Decade Team. In Part 1, we evaluated the lineup, here we look at the pitching staff.

SP1 - Zack Greinke: The 2009 Cy Young Award Winner headlines the rotation. Greinke made 136 starts in the '00s, posting a 3.73 ERA over that span, good for a 120 ERA+ and an average WAR of 5.1. As we've covered here before, Greinke's comeback didn't start in 2009, and that wasn't his first strong season. Thus, even on average, he's still the ace of the staff, just a bit closer to the rest of the bunch.

SP2 - Gil Meche: The second and final obvious choice for the all-decade rotation. In three seasons Gil gave the Royals a 4.12 ERA (108 ERA+) and an average WAR of 3.6 wins above replacement. His K/9 numbers (7.0 to 7.6) and HR/9 (0.9/9 to 1.0/9) are comparable to Greinke's, listed second in the parenthesis.

SP3 - Jeff Suppan: And.... now we're in the true Royals of the '00s zone. For three seasons in the '00s (00-02) Suppan gave the Royals a league average ERA (102+). Suppan was pretty homer-prone back in those days, and his 1.3 HR/9 average isn't going to help a staff that already struggles a bit with the longball.

Star-divide

 

SP4 - Paul Byrd: The selection committee goes with an all-time one-year wonder for the Royals (although Byrd technically pitched in parts of two) who was a Royal star in 2002. Overall, Byrd's as a Royal averages are a 3.95 ERA (ERA+ 125), not many Ks at 5.0/9 and a bit of homeritis (1.3 HR/9). His 3.7 WAR in 2002 is right in line with Meche's tenure.

SP5 - Brian Bannister: A tiny bit of presentist bias might be at work here. Bannister has been good for the Royals, though his ERA is still below league average for the period (92 ERA+). According to WAR, he's averaged 2.3 wins above replacement in his three seasons as a Royal starter. I don't have the WAR data for the early decade on hand, but in terms of the brutal prism of ERA, Darrell May might be a better choice. Between 02-04, May posted similar, if not better numbers (101 ERA+) and should get bonus points for contributing to the one interesting Royal team of the decade.

Setup Man - Jeremy Affeldt: The committee went with Affeldt here, perhaps giving a nod to the million internet and talk radio discussions occasioned by Affeldt's time in Kansas City. Affeldt was good out of the bullpen in 2003, not so much in 2004-5. He's been better in other places, but aside from 2003 was never exemplary in Kansas City, making him a somewhat curious choice. Ramon Ramirez (great in one season with the team) is an acceptable alternative, and Jason Grimsley seems like the obvious one. Grimsley was around forever and was sometimes good. He was definitely more consistently good than Affeldt, but perhaps he's an un-person now because of PEDs and the fact that he seems somewhat insane.

Closer- Joakim Soria: The Mexicutioner. He be awesome. Soria gives the Royals three guys, along with Meche and Zack, who would have made just about any team's all-decade squad.

So basically, this is the 2008-10 Royal pitching staff. High level Zack, followed by Meche and Banny, with Soria closing games. Affeldt is comparable to setup men the Royals have had recently, while Suppan and Byrd are upgrades, but not huge ones. I'm not a huge fan of one-year wonders on squads like this, and as such I'm not sure how to feel about just happening to have the one season when Byrd was way better than he ever was again. I mean, dude threw 7 complete games in 2002. Going to war with two of the Tejeda/Hochevar/Davies guys isn't much different than Suppan/Byrd.

So all in all, its a good, but not overpowering pitching staff, basically the staff of a NL Wild Card team. Things change if we make Zack into ZACK! But of course, 2009 was a historically great season for Greinke. The Royals really need to move the fences back for the All-Decade team. The offense doesn't have a ton of power anyway, and the longball is basically a staff-wide bugaboo.

The 2009 Royals allowed 842 runs, and thats not a terrible starting point for thinking about how the all-decade team would do. All-decade Greinke is a little worse, a few other places are upgrades. Maybe, overall, we get a net 20 run upgrade, though its all very fake, since the all-decade team has a two-man bullpen. So we get the all-decade Royals to ~820 runs. Now, the all-decade lineup looks good to great defensively, especially in the outfield. (Dye, Berroa, & Butler aren't helping.) So lets knock the runs allowed down 770. Considering how many guys give up a lot of balls in play (Suppan, Byrd, Banny) that better defense is big.

I had the all-decade team scoring 826 runs, so this comes out to...

Something like a .532 winning percentage, which is around 86 games.  

So the Royals all-decade team would be a fringe Wild Card contender, playing at about 86-76. 

0 recs  |  Comment 29 comments |

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The real question is who would be on the bizarro all-decade team?

As in, worst players. Think of the laughs in the rotation alone.

1) Lima
2) Ponson
3) Ho-Ram
4) Albie Lopez
5) Miguel Asencio

You could go so many directions. It’s all about criteria I guess. Those are the 5 that I most remember watching and just knowing they were terrible right from the start.

by big matt on Mar 16, 2010 10:52 PM EDT reply actions  

How could I have forgotten ODP?

He was twice the fat loser Albie Lopez was, and for twice as long!

In 2007 me and some friends bought one of those 22-game season ticket packages. We got something like 10 ODPs and 1 Greinke.

by big matt on Mar 16, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmmm,

Just going with guys that played a significant amount of time

C AJ Hinch
1B Ross Gload
2B Luis Alicea
3B Haven’t really had any bad full-time 3B. You can stretch and put Desi Relaford here I guess.
SS Tony Pena Jr.
LF Chuck Knoblauch or Dee Brown
CF Joey Gathright
RF Terrence Long
DH Mike Jacobs

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 16, 2010 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd add Brent Mayne

Annoyed the hell out of me. Kinda sucked for the Royals, left town and got good and came back and sucked.

by kcbottom9th on Mar 16, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'll never forget kerry robinson

that leap at the wall that i have since considered the low-point in royals baseball.

by 9il on Mar 17, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

Guillen has been way worse than Terrence Long

I also think Ken Harvey needs to platon with either Gload or Jacobs

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 17, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

ALL-STAR Ken Harvey?

Surely you jest!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 17, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Worst ERA+

Min. 100 innings, Royals 2000-2009

1. Scott Elarton 71
2. Jose Lima 72 BELIEVE IT!
3. Luke Hochevar 75
4. Chris George 75
5. Kyle Snyder 80
6. Chad Durbin 81
7. Jorge of the Rose 82
8. Mark “All-Star” Redman 82
9. Odalis Perez 82
10.Runelvys Hernandez 87

Just off the list – Mike Wood, Brian Anderson, Luke Hudson, Brian Meadows, Kyle Davies, Ducky, and Yimmy Yobble

The best?

1. Joakim Soria 213
2. Cory Bailey….remember him? 131
3. Robinson Tejada 128
4. Paul Byrd 125
5. Jason Grimsley 124
6. Mike MacDougal 121
7. Zaq Attack 118
8. Roberto Hernandez 116
9. Ron Mahay 110
10.Gilga Meche 108

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Mar 16, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Market inefficiency exploitation rules</code?.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2010 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

It is sometimes forgotten

That the bad pitching staffs of the early decade were even more terrible than the offenses (and gloves) at the end.

Seeing Royals Retro made me wonder what the all decade tam would be in Win Shares. (as he does the top 100 that way) I am well aware that some people have a problem with the stat, but it is an all positive stat that seamlessly blends time served with skill. It is a useful tool for all time teams.

I am at least certain that using win shares, there is no way RAUUL would have been snubbed.

Is it safe?

by KHAZAD on Mar 17, 2010 4:30 AM EDT reply actions  

This article makes me sad

The current team has 3 of the starting pitchers, and the closer, and we STILL were below average in the AL in ERA last season!!!!!

I’m OK with Moore’s plan to win with pitching and defense, and granted, the pitching prior to his arrival was simply atrocious – but this drives home the point that we are still a LONG way from having a good pitching staff (or at least one good enough to actually carry the pathetic offenses he has put together)

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Mar 17, 2010 10:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, if you look at defense-independant stats like FIP, xFIP, and tRA, the Royals were around average or just above in 2009. Of course, without Zach’s monstrous year…

So basically, Zack just has be the best pitcher ever for the Royals to have a good staff. Done and done.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 17, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I get that,

but Moore (presumably) wants to win with stellar pitching, stellar defense, and average to perhaps even below average offense.

What I’m getting at, is that if he is OK with building only an avg or slightly below avg offense, because “power costs to much” (I’m paraphrasing him here), then the pitching+defense, in other words, run prevention, needs to be in the top 2 or 3 in the league. That’s what I was trying to get at – they are a long way away from that, even if we concede that the pitching, as measured by more advanced metrics than ERA, is already “average”

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Mar 17, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, his grasp of defense is way off

luckily, banishing Gordon to first (or Omaha) in favor of Callaspo, along with promising Ankiel CF should fix things

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 17, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I Think He's

Trying to build a replica of the ‘69 Mets. So far he’s only to ’62.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 17, 2010 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

RIck Ankiel = Tommie Agee

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Mar 17, 2010 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I Wish

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 18, 2010 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm for the pushing-back-of-the-walls

Hell, let’s take down the walls completely. I-70 can be the home run boundary.

Check out Two Out Rally, the new BASEBALL MMORPG, coming soon!
twooutrally.com | (on Facebook) | (on Twitter)

by Justin Bopp on Mar 17, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

i would argue that the ideal suburban stadium

would have no outfield fences, just infinite expanse. but that’s mostly my love for architectural theory talking.

by SSmanque on Mar 19, 2010 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

That would lead to lots of HR's for speedy line drive hitters

And it would make fast OFers a necessity. Might be the perfect kind of stadium for a Dayton Moore-built team.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Mar 19, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not even sure even Podsednik and Ankiel

could cover that much ground

there would be a whole-lotta rolling after Podsednik’s once-a-game-ill-advised-dive

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 19, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

You'd have to play fairly deep on everyone to make sure they didn't hit the gap for a homer

Would be very interesting to play at some place like the Polo Grounds in the modern era just to see how it would effect the run environment. Easy homers at the corners, impossible homers from left-center to right-center other than inside the park homers…

by AxDxMx on Mar 20, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

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